Assuming the election will be close is the safe way to be right when the results are in. The polls aren't trustworthy, so how on Earth do "they" know? In this crazy Alice-in-Wonderland America, we can only go by feel and intuition. This is about the future, and that means our young voters and (drum roll) women. We either trust the endless unreliable polls or our gut. My gut tells me that the good people in this country will prevail. I refuse to listen to those other guys. 😊
I feel the same Janet. After 2016, it's hard not to be wary. Does anyone remember what the polls and punditry were promoting in 2008 when Obama got 365 electoral college votes or in 2012 when he received 332? I am still in my bones hoping for such a landslide. (at least more than 300? ). It's what is needed to bring us some relief most quickly from the abuse we have had to endure from the radical right wing.
Of course we need a majority in the legislative branch. My comment here is related to shutting down "The Big Lie 2.0" which will be propelled by the felon and will work to undermine (or eliminate) our votes.
Lynn, it couldn’t be more obvious that Middle America is in a conflict with the Billionaire class freely spending paltry “hundreds of millions of dollars” to buy the government they want by creating dishonest attack ads aimed at low information voters that lack the education that a prior education system provided us
A 40 plus year campaign to dumb down the population was a long term strategy coming to fruition
And the 2010 SCOTUS decision regarding Citizens United v. FEC and its ruling in the 2014 McCutcheon v. FEC have been propellants in the spending of billionaires in the purchasing of our freedoms to bend or break at their will.
Thank you Lynn! I don't think any number will shut them down, honestly. It might be that the bigger the number the more they will yelp and cry foul. "It's just not possible unless they rigged it!" And so on... No amount of facts or pressure is going to stop it if it goes that way. It's exasperating.
I spent 34 years as a livestock commodity analyst forecasting meat and animal prices; think pork belly futures like in the movie "Trading Places". Sometimes all the little bits of info bouncing around my brain would find a catalyst, and I would have an "aha moment" when I just knew what was going to happen. It was an actual physical rush, and I was usually right. It helped me be successful in a very male dominated business.
I retired in 2015, but the the same feeling hit me in the summer of 2016 when Britain passed Brexit. I told my husband that Trump was going to win; I just knew. (I had no moment of insight for 2020.) A few months ago, Trump blew off Nickie Halley's supporters in a speech, and it hit me suddenly that Trump would lose in 2024. That feeling was reinforced with the Labor landslide in Britain recently. I am confident VP Harris will win, but I am very worried that MAGA Trumplicans will do literally anything to ensure Trump becomes president. We need to keep working to make sure she wins in a landslide, and hope that it is a killing blow to their strategy.
I don't think the MAGAts can just do anything to put him in the White House. But winning in a landslide would be very nice. I will say I was amazed when the Harris people let me know I'd contributed $566 to her campaign. (I'd sent $100 the day before.) I immediately sent out another $34 to make it an even $600, and I think I've spent at least $1,100 on other Democratic candidates, and Airlift.fund, and I don't think I'm done. My total spending was around $100 in '16 and $500 in 2020.
I've also been phonebanking with Common Ground--a first for me.
Welcome to the team of grassroots phone bankers calling for democracy David! And Common Ground is a wonderful organization - I’ve phone banked with them as well. Keep up the this important work! 💙🇺🇸💙
I think even if it is 350 or more Electoral College votes it will occasion bigger resistance from MAGA. It will appear more legitimate to everyone outside of MAGA if the Harris win is big-- but has that ever stopped them from yelling foul? They are dealing in Myth, not Facts. But I think the pushback in UK, France, Italy, Brazil has been a good sign that the majority of people don't want to be ruled by grifters and criminals. I am amazed that MAGA can poll above 20% but we are through the looking glass...
Janet, I had an interesting conversation with a sympathetic friend that grew up in a small Michigan town, Frankenmuth, that leans heavily Republican. His brother is heavily Republican. His brother told him that “behind closed doors” the talk is that support is moving away from Trump there.
It seems that sensible GOP voters are recognizing that Trump is dangerous, but in that town you need to be careful about what you say out loud in public lest you be ostracized from the very “cliquey” community. Perhaps its not the “Silent Majority”, but rather the “Sane GOP Minority” hiding in the shadows of the remnants of the past GOP Ideology
I simply refuse to believe that my fellow citizens will turn our future over to a sniveling wannabe fascist dictator who is closing his campaign with an overt threat to sic our military on his political enemies, the so-called “enemy within.” The utter depravity of his threat could not be more potently illustrated than by his choice of Adam Schiff as an example of the “enemy within” deserving such punishment. Thanks Robert for reminding us that enthusiasm and hard work will win the day. At 83, I am so happy to be fit enough to be canvassing in my neighbor state of Pennsylvania for Kamala and Tim between now and November 5. Together we can relegate Trump and his despicable sycophants to the political oblivion they so richly deserve.
A note to other readers: I have the privilege of knowing Brent. We were law partners together. He is a true prince among men and one of the smartest guys I know.
Well as usual Robert is too kind. We all who read his daily column know how smart and dedicated he is. But perhaps not everyone knows what I know because I had the privilege of practicing law with him for many years: his heart is as big as the gorgeous nebulae the stunning photographs of which he shares with us each day.
Brent, thanks for your words. You are an inspiration. You threw a douse of cold water on me as I wondered about whether my finishing my next to last stack of postcards today, really mattered. Self-talk: "Shut up, P. White, here's Brent [whom I never met and don't know] out there knocking on doors in PA, when you are wondering whether "working" for a day writing postcards is going to make a difference. Get busy! Let it be a tribute day to Mr. Rushforth's guts. and the thousands who are doing the real work of the campaign." [If "Rushforth" is not a pseudonym, and even if it is, it's a name that describes the person, like something out of the earnest 17th century Puritan John Bunyan's The Pilgrim's Progress." Go Brent! Rush forth!]. And thanks to all you other courage-teachers, led by Robert Hubbell.
Patrick…thanks so much for your very kind words. And back atcha! You and so many others like you are why I refuse to believe we are going with the orange fascist down to Dante’s seventh circle of hell. Not gonna happen. And I assure you Rushforth is my real name, not a pseudonym! Although many have wondered the same thing. Imagine the skepticism when I my wife and I lived on Haste Street in Berkeley when I was in law school there! Let’s all run through the tape on November 5 and banish the orange menace to outer political darkness where he and his MAGA cult belong.
The Rushforths of Haste Street! This sounds like a great title for a romance novel! But might have to move Berkeley in the '60s and '70s to Jane Austen country. But maybe I am missing something. I can't think of many romance novels set in law school. (A semi-serious question: are there any good novels set in law schools. The Paper Chase, of course, though more famous as a film. And Scott Trurow's famous, One L comes to mind, though that is nonfiction memoir. Not a lawyer myself, just an old academics side interest in novels about the academy. If anyone has suggestions of law school novel. Pls don't bother to send them, now, but maybe hit our chat after Nov. 5) Back to postcards.
Thanks for your work in the ground game. We will have to defeat the MAGA white “Christian” nationalists over and over again and again. We can’t let our guard down because they won’t.
I witnessed a fairly unknown black man use a grass-roots campaign strategy (enthusiasm and door knocking, etc) and win! I watched a young, Black, gay man win his election for mayor in my very conservative city using a grass-roots strategy to get out the vote and I’m observing that same strategy by Harris! She has a strong ground game and DT has none! I truly believe it will pay off for her! We just stay the course!!
Awesomely comprehensive and comprehensively awesome!!!
I will add to #12 that there are so many Never-Trumpers from the Right who have been fiercely fighting him since 2015. And all the GOP people who came forward to the House Committee & testified to Jack Smith. All the RVAT and Lincoln Project and Bulwark people. When you watch voter focus groups you see Trump just hemorrhaging voters. And even where there will not be "RINOs" crossing over to Harris there will be Non-Trump "votes" that will exsanguinate him, too. Raffensperger testified that when they recounted the GA ballots they found over 28,000 ballots with a "straight Republican" ticket -- but the box for President was blank. He added, "That was the margin of victory for Biden" or words that effect. I will also add to #7 that people are pissed about MANY SCOMAGA decisions such as Immunity, Bump Stocks, Affirmative Action, as well as flying insurrectionist flags and driving complimentary RVs!!
Shawn,wanted to share….Yesterday,in my MAGA Fl county, I was walking into our local Aldi when a woman complimented on my Harris/Walz t-shirt.I thanked her and encouraged her to vote early. She reached into her bag and handed me 3 Vote/Kamala beaded bracelets.
Thanks for being the driving force that encouraged me to wear a 👕all these months.Nothing but ++. That has fueled my optimism!
DeSantis had a bad week, eh? Will Martin go down? Before long, Judge Cannon will be kicked to the curb in the documents case.... Things are shifting...People can smell bad meat...
You can say that again. Sending off 200 postcards to Floridians on Monday. I was complacent in 2016… by the time I was voting (in California at the time) the race had already been called for Trump.
Sending more sympathy your way, Robert. Those grandfather-eating ladders can be quite treacherous!
Don't be discouraged by those cloudy skies, either. We can wait until the weather clears. Vacation photos will be a welcome substitute, if it comes to that.
An NBC correspondent interviewing Kamala Harris was trying to gotcha her by asking her what she's gonna do about men not voting for her. She said to him she saw both genders at her rallies, and that she was working on getting her message out to ALL Americans.
We should not take for granted how talented Harris and Walz are, but even more importantly, how good their campaign staffers are. I’ve never seen as well run a campaign. Contrast that with Clinton’s campaign in 2016, which didn't think it had to go to Wisconsin.
It's been breathtaking and brilliant and inspired!!! I voted for Harris whenever she ran here in CA and am still amazed at her evolution on display in this lightning campaign!! One for the history books!
Please watch VP Harris speech at Washington Crossing, PA on Wednesday. This was an event for Republicans for Harris. Olivia Troye and Adam Kinzinger were there. The farmers who own the property were previously Republicans - No longer. VP Harris speech went strongly on national security and the threat the other side is to our very Constitution. It was an incredible speech that made me cry. It's on her YouTube channel - Kamala.
Earlier this week Jay Kuo wrote on "The Big Picture" here on Substack about "weaponized polling". Jay is recovering attorney who is licensed to practice before the Supreme Court. Here is the link to that article:
We have the best candidates, a highly organized energetic campaign, incredible fund raising, the best surrogates and many of them, 700 + national security and defense officials on our side and more real Republicans than we may realize. We have both Michelle Obama and President Obama out campaigning for us Don't worry. Do Something.
Jay Kuo and I will be hosting a "live streaming" event this week. I have spent time with Jay preparing for the event. He is a delightful and thoughtful person. I am looking forward to it!
Thank you, Robert. I agree with you; none of us need to be told the race is close. There is a time in every campaign when it is wise to beware of unearned optimism. We are past that time. Our optimism has been earned. Nearly everyone I know has done something to help win this election. They’ve participated in phone or text banking, sent postcards, knocked on doors, and almost certainly donated money. None are sleeping on this race. This is the time in the campaign when we loudly and proudly say to ourselves and everyone around us that we will win this thing and mean it.
I feel optimistic whenever I hear Kamala Harris speak, even if she’s giving her standard stump speech. She seems comfortable in her skin and confident in her campaign. She connects with disaffected Republicans but still looks right at home talking to the rank and file at Union halls. She and her team have run one of the best campaigns I’ve seen in my forty-plus years of involvement in politics. We have the candidate and the movement, and as long as this enthusiasm shows up at the polls, we will win.
Those are brick-breaking words!! Inspiring!!! Harris has been remarkable as Trump has turned to putrid mush....And she did her share to put him where he is. Harris is a truly gifted leader and will only grow more into the role over time.
Thanks, Robert, for calling out the mischievous efforts of the insurrectionists to instrumentalize the current quagmire in the Middle East. The perfidious script written up by Hamas has worked out beautifully so far. The cherry on the top, of course, though probably unintended on Oct 7, would be the return of the felon to the White House. A dream for the Mullahs in Teheran as well as Putin, nothing better than that to bring the "big Satan" to its knees.
Let's just hope that neither Jewish nor Muslim voters fall for it. Thanks for providing the link to the instructive piece of the Michigan Advance. In case readers have missed it – please go back to Robert's letter and click on the link. A textbook example of MAGA's deceptive, despicable, billionaire financed campaign strategy. All of it courtesy of SCOTUS' Citizens United decision, of course.
Yes, that was the link I clicked on and I was appalled by what I read. I shared the article with my MA friend who has been canvassing in PA for months, wondering if she has seen anything similar there.
And I wonder where else MuskMoney is twisting the truth like that.
Hang in there folks ... and my thanks to everyone who is doing anything to forward our cause - Democracy!!
A CIVIQS survey (“What is your honest opinion of Kamala Harris?”) led me to try to put into words why I support Kamala:
The smartest, toughest, most competent candidate ever, with the courage and intelligence to take on the enemies - both foreign and domestic, but particularly the latter - of Democracy and of the American values embedded (however imperfectly) in our founding documents. She tells the truth, opposes tyranny and fascism, has compassion for all and works tirelessly on behalf of equality for all Americans. She stands up to oligarchs who think their money makes them more important than the rest of us. She fights for all of us, and she will bring a new and higher level of competence and skilled diplomacy to the office of President. She aligns with the great leaders this country has been fortunate to know (Washington, Lincoln, FDR, Biden) and she stands for truth, justice and inclusion of all Americans.
She's going to surprise a lot of people on Nov.5; the fruits of our grassroots labor will sweep the miserable felon off the stage for good in 17 days.
Tom, I applaud and appreciate your excellent description of our candidate, Kamala Harris! When I share Robert's substack today, I plan to encourage people to read the comments, mentioning several, including yours, by name. Thank you!
I live in a rural area in North Carolina and volunteer at our local Democratic Headquarters. Despite the hurricane that came over us, I've witnessed no decrease in enthusiasm and determination in Democratic voters. Quite the opposite. We are continuing to get new volunteers every day at our Democratic Headquarters. And we put them to work immediately canvassing, phone banking, or poll greeting.
One thought I've had is this: I would bet there are more Republicans voting for Harris/Walz than Democrats voting for Trump/Vance. That shift bodes in our favor.
Marilynn: Your "one thought..."I would bet there are more Republicans voting for Harris/Walz than Democrats voting for Trump/Vance" has to be accurate, and skews everything, slightly in our favor especially in highly contested close races.
My formerly apolitical friend and I voted yesterday in Guilford County. An hour plus wait with more young women than I have ever seen. So exciting to be part of a record turn out! Go BLUE!
Kamala Harris's campaign is doing just fine. We already know that Trump is a danger to democracy; she does not have to keep telling us. We did not know about her plans to create a path to becoming middle class for those who are not or who are just hanging on. She is making a difference. Another thing we don't know is why Trump is cancelling appearances. If they are saying he is exhausted, he is almost certainly suffering from something much worse than that. Maybe the Wall Street Journal will tell us.
I agree with you-- he's a danger, now tell us what we have to look forward to when you win.
Trump is canceling because he is out of gas and he might be more ill than known; also, I think he feels he doesn't need to "win the election" because his MAGAt army will just install him in the end. Stay tuned...
Robert - Your M78 shot looks somewhat greenish to my color challenged aging eyes. It looks pretty neat. I'm glad to hear you came through ok after the construction accident. :-)
The WSJ story quotes the professor - Rajiv Sethi - I mentioned a few days ago. In his Substack earlier in the week Sethi noted the puzzling actions on Polymarket. The evidence has developed further since then and numerous observers suspect someone in France has spent $30 million to boost the idea the betting market is seeing a Trump surge. That's pretty wild. I guess it fits in with all those "Red Wave" polls that Simon from Hopium, as well as numerous others, have noted over the past couple weeks. That's some serious money being spent to create an image. Combine that with the counter-narrative with the media and I guess one result is a stress test for Kamala supporters. Add in the strange behaviors with Trump's appearances and you have to wonder where we'll be in 7 and 14 days. Things seem to keep getting weirder and more tense practically every day now.
It certainly helps my nerves to hear of all the positive signs with Kamala and the rest of the D campaign. That helps break the addictive impulse to keep looking at the polls. Ok...it at least helps resist the impulse!
It's all theater, fake appearances....Like Trump hiring unemployed actors to carry signs and cheer.... Harris will be Toto to the Orange Man behind the curtain!!!
Assuming the election will be close is the safe way to be right when the results are in. The polls aren't trustworthy, so how on Earth do "they" know? In this crazy Alice-in-Wonderland America, we can only go by feel and intuition. This is about the future, and that means our young voters and (drum roll) women. We either trust the endless unreliable polls or our gut. My gut tells me that the good people in this country will prevail. I refuse to listen to those other guys. 😊
I feel the same Janet. After 2016, it's hard not to be wary. Does anyone remember what the polls and punditry were promoting in 2008 when Obama got 365 electoral college votes or in 2012 when he received 332? I am still in my bones hoping for such a landslide. (at least more than 300? ). It's what is needed to bring us some relief most quickly from the abuse we have had to endure from the radical right wing.
Thank you, Lynn, for the reminder of the possibility!!
And we need the house and Senate pleeeease 🙏🤞
At least one!!! Both is better though!!
Of course we need a majority in the legislative branch. My comment here is related to shutting down "The Big Lie 2.0" which will be propelled by the felon and will work to undermine (or eliminate) our votes.
Lynn, it couldn’t be more obvious that Middle America is in a conflict with the Billionaire class freely spending paltry “hundreds of millions of dollars” to buy the government they want by creating dishonest attack ads aimed at low information voters that lack the education that a prior education system provided us
A 40 plus year campaign to dumb down the population was a long term strategy coming to fruition
And the 2010 SCOTUS decision regarding Citizens United v. FEC and its ruling in the 2014 McCutcheon v. FEC have been propellants in the spending of billionaires in the purchasing of our freedoms to bend or break at their will.
The long term strategy has been incremental and now Leonard Leo has most of his chess pieces in place. The Feudal State is at hand
Eat the Rich
300+ is good but will not stop the MAGA backlash and abuse. We will still need to wear our ponchos!!
Thanks HarveyCan! I wonder what the EC number would have be to shut down the MAGA lies regarding the authenticity of this presidential election?
Thank you Lynn! I don't think any number will shut them down, honestly. It might be that the bigger the number the more they will yelp and cry foul. "It's just not possible unless they rigged it!" And so on... No amount of facts or pressure is going to stop it if it goes that way. It's exasperating.
I spent 34 years as a livestock commodity analyst forecasting meat and animal prices; think pork belly futures like in the movie "Trading Places". Sometimes all the little bits of info bouncing around my brain would find a catalyst, and I would have an "aha moment" when I just knew what was going to happen. It was an actual physical rush, and I was usually right. It helped me be successful in a very male dominated business.
I retired in 2015, but the the same feeling hit me in the summer of 2016 when Britain passed Brexit. I told my husband that Trump was going to win; I just knew. (I had no moment of insight for 2020.) A few months ago, Trump blew off Nickie Halley's supporters in a speech, and it hit me suddenly that Trump would lose in 2024. That feeling was reinforced with the Labor landslide in Britain recently. I am confident VP Harris will win, but I am very worried that MAGA Trumplicans will do literally anything to ensure Trump becomes president. We need to keep working to make sure she wins in a landslide, and hope that it is a killing blow to their strategy.
I don't think the MAGAts can just do anything to put him in the White House. But winning in a landslide would be very nice. I will say I was amazed when the Harris people let me know I'd contributed $566 to her campaign. (I'd sent $100 the day before.) I immediately sent out another $34 to make it an even $600, and I think I've spent at least $1,100 on other Democratic candidates, and Airlift.fund, and I don't think I'm done. My total spending was around $100 in '16 and $500 in 2020.
I've also been phonebanking with Common Ground--a first for me.
The thing is, I believe in all these candidates.
Welcome to the team of grassroots phone bankers calling for democracy David! And Common Ground is a wonderful organization - I’ve phone banked with them as well. Keep up the this important work! 💙🇺🇸💙
Thank you Angela, and yes they do seem to be wonderful!
I think even if it is 350 or more Electoral College votes it will occasion bigger resistance from MAGA. It will appear more legitimate to everyone outside of MAGA if the Harris win is big-- but has that ever stopped them from yelling foul? They are dealing in Myth, not Facts. But I think the pushback in UK, France, Italy, Brazil has been a good sign that the majority of people don't want to be ruled by grifters and criminals. I am amazed that MAGA can poll above 20% but we are through the looking glass...
Blue Wave. I trust Americans to rise to the occasion. I feel it in my bones.
As they say, “Good Bones.” 💙
Too bad I can just click 'like' once!
Ditto what Stefan said!
Amen!!!!
Yes. Go with the gut and the heart and the courage. We are not going to be banished to the cornfield easily!!
Janet, I had an interesting conversation with a sympathetic friend that grew up in a small Michigan town, Frankenmuth, that leans heavily Republican. His brother is heavily Republican. His brother told him that “behind closed doors” the talk is that support is moving away from Trump there.
It seems that sensible GOP voters are recognizing that Trump is dangerous, but in that town you need to be careful about what you say out loud in public lest you be ostracized from the very “cliquey” community. Perhaps its not the “Silent Majority”, but rather the “Sane GOP Minority” hiding in the shadows of the remnants of the past GOP Ideology
“The Sane Minority”
I simply refuse to believe that my fellow citizens will turn our future over to a sniveling wannabe fascist dictator who is closing his campaign with an overt threat to sic our military on his political enemies, the so-called “enemy within.” The utter depravity of his threat could not be more potently illustrated than by his choice of Adam Schiff as an example of the “enemy within” deserving such punishment. Thanks Robert for reminding us that enthusiasm and hard work will win the day. At 83, I am so happy to be fit enough to be canvassing in my neighbor state of Pennsylvania for Kamala and Tim between now and November 5. Together we can relegate Trump and his despicable sycophants to the political oblivion they so richly deserve.
A note to other readers: I have the privilege of knowing Brent. We were law partners together. He is a true prince among men and one of the smartest guys I know.
Well as usual Robert is too kind. We all who read his daily column know how smart and dedicated he is. But perhaps not everyone knows what I know because I had the privilege of practicing law with him for many years: his heart is as big as the gorgeous nebulae the stunning photographs of which he shares with us each day.
Thanks Brent. You confirm what we all kinda/sorta guessed about the man!
Brent, thanks for your words. You are an inspiration. You threw a douse of cold water on me as I wondered about whether my finishing my next to last stack of postcards today, really mattered. Self-talk: "Shut up, P. White, here's Brent [whom I never met and don't know] out there knocking on doors in PA, when you are wondering whether "working" for a day writing postcards is going to make a difference. Get busy! Let it be a tribute day to Mr. Rushforth's guts. and the thousands who are doing the real work of the campaign." [If "Rushforth" is not a pseudonym, and even if it is, it's a name that describes the person, like something out of the earnest 17th century Puritan John Bunyan's The Pilgrim's Progress." Go Brent! Rush forth!]. And thanks to all you other courage-teachers, led by Robert Hubbell.
Patrick…thanks so much for your very kind words. And back atcha! You and so many others like you are why I refuse to believe we are going with the orange fascist down to Dante’s seventh circle of hell. Not gonna happen. And I assure you Rushforth is my real name, not a pseudonym! Although many have wondered the same thing. Imagine the skepticism when I my wife and I lived on Haste Street in Berkeley when I was in law school there! Let’s all run through the tape on November 5 and banish the orange menace to outer political darkness where he and his MAGA cult belong.
The Rushforths of Haste Street! This sounds like a great title for a romance novel! But might have to move Berkeley in the '60s and '70s to Jane Austen country. But maybe I am missing something. I can't think of many romance novels set in law school. (A semi-serious question: are there any good novels set in law schools. The Paper Chase, of course, though more famous as a film. And Scott Trurow's famous, One L comes to mind, though that is nonfiction memoir. Not a lawyer myself, just an old academics side interest in novels about the academy. If anyone has suggestions of law school novel. Pls don't bother to send them, now, but maybe hit our chat after Nov. 5) Back to postcards.
OMG! Legally Blonde! Watch it tonight!
I admire, and I applaud you sir. Thank you for your service to us!
Thanks for your work in the ground game. We will have to defeat the MAGA white “Christian” nationalists over and over again and again. We can’t let our guard down because they won’t.
I agree, Jenn. It will be a marathon not a sprint...Generational...
Thanks for your hard work
Your country thanks and salutes you, sir.
My dad, at 89 and with cancer that killed him shortly thereafter, stood on a street corner for months with picket signs against the war in Iraq.
I witnessed a fairly unknown black man use a grass-roots campaign strategy (enthusiasm and door knocking, etc) and win! I watched a young, Black, gay man win his election for mayor in my very conservative city using a grass-roots strategy to get out the vote and I’m observing that same strategy by Harris! She has a strong ground game and DT has none! I truly believe it will pay off for her! We just stay the course!!
I’d like to add to support my statement:
https://share.newsbreak.com/9e61p9bn
"But, if you are like me, you are tired of being reminded that 'the election is going to be close.'"
I'm not only tiring of it, I don't believe it.
Not even for a second.
What David said!
I don't believe it either, David.
Not do I.
It won't be close in popular votes, but I think it will be close in Electoral College votes.
I can give a reason I am enthusiastic. In fact, I can give you twelve, (in no particular order.)
1. The white WOMAN got more votes than the white man in 2016.
2. In 2008 and 2012, the BLACK man got more votes than the white man.
3. There are more female voters than male voters.
4. There was no Red Wave in 2022.
5. The numbers of voters against Trump increased between '16 and '20.
6. Project 2025 is rejected by a majority of Americans.
7. Voters are pissed over the Roe v Wade loss.
8. Everywhere abortion has been on the ballot, it won.
9. Greater numbers of young voters are concerned over climate change, school shootings, abortions, condoms, book bans, voting rights, LGBTQ+ and more.
10. Record numbers of voter registrations followed Taylor Swift's encouragement.
11. A third of eligible voters didn't, so there's room for growth.
12. High level Republicans are tripping over themselves endorsing Kamala.
Awesomely comprehensive and comprehensively awesome!!!
I will add to #12 that there are so many Never-Trumpers from the Right who have been fiercely fighting him since 2015. And all the GOP people who came forward to the House Committee & testified to Jack Smith. All the RVAT and Lincoln Project and Bulwark people. When you watch voter focus groups you see Trump just hemorrhaging voters. And even where there will not be "RINOs" crossing over to Harris there will be Non-Trump "votes" that will exsanguinate him, too. Raffensperger testified that when they recounted the GA ballots they found over 28,000 ballots with a "straight Republican" ticket -- but the box for President was blank. He added, "That was the margin of victory for Biden" or words that effect. I will also add to #7 that people are pissed about MANY SCOMAGA decisions such as Immunity, Bump Stocks, Affirmative Action, as well as flying insurrectionist flags and driving complimentary RVs!!
That is one great list.
I think Hillary’s loss has cured us from being lulled by optimism.
Our optimism now is a driving force toward a self fulfilling prophecy.
Shawn,wanted to share….Yesterday,in my MAGA Fl county, I was walking into our local Aldi when a woman complimented on my Harris/Walz t-shirt.I thanked her and encouraged her to vote early. She reached into her bag and handed me 3 Vote/Kamala beaded bracelets.
Thanks for being the driving force that encouraged me to wear a 👕all these months.Nothing but ++. That has fueled my optimism!
Thanks, for sharing this story. Circulating it to family.
💙
Kathy, I feel like we’ve been through this election season together. I appreciate that story so much. Let’s turn Florida blue!
DeSantis had a bad week, eh? Will Martin go down? Before long, Judge Cannon will be kicked to the curb in the documents case.... Things are shifting...People can smell bad meat...
Robert says: No reason to be complacent.
You can say that again. Sending off 200 postcards to Floridians on Monday. I was complacent in 2016… by the time I was voting (in California at the time) the race had already been called for Trump.
Sending more sympathy your way, Robert. Those grandfather-eating ladders can be quite treacherous!
Don't be discouraged by those cloudy skies, either. We can wait until the weather clears. Vacation photos will be a welcome substitute, if it comes to that.
An NBC correspondent interviewing Kamala Harris was trying to gotcha her by asking her what she's gonna do about men not voting for her. She said to him she saw both genders at her rallies, and that she was working on getting her message out to ALL Americans.
Everyone will be second guessing every move on TV, Podcasts and social media.
It doesn’t matter. Harris has a competent staff and certainly more information. If any thing they will go into overdrive. They will figure it out.!
We should not take for granted how talented Harris and Walz are, but even more importantly, how good their campaign staffers are. I’ve never seen as well run a campaign. Contrast that with Clinton’s campaign in 2016, which didn't think it had to go to Wisconsin.
It's been breathtaking and brilliant and inspired!!! I voted for Harris whenever she ran here in CA and am still amazed at her evolution on display in this lightning campaign!! One for the history books!
Please watch VP Harris speech at Washington Crossing, PA on Wednesday. This was an event for Republicans for Harris. Olivia Troye and Adam Kinzinger were there. The farmers who own the property were previously Republicans - No longer. VP Harris speech went strongly on national security and the threat the other side is to our very Constitution. It was an incredible speech that made me cry. It's on her YouTube channel - Kamala.
Earlier this week Jay Kuo wrote on "The Big Picture" here on Substack about "weaponized polling". Jay is recovering attorney who is licensed to practice before the Supreme Court. Here is the link to that article:
https://thinkbigpicture.substack.com/p/2024-trump-red-wave-polls
Finally, if you need more encouragement please watch Simon Rosenberg's interview with Olivia Troye yesterday on Hopium Chronicles. Here is the link: https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/lets-have-a-big-weekend-everyone
We have the best candidates, a highly organized energetic campaign, incredible fund raising, the best surrogates and many of them, 700 + national security and defense officials on our side and more real Republicans than we may realize. We have both Michelle Obama and President Obama out campaigning for us Don't worry. Do Something.
Jay Kuo and I will be hosting a "live streaming" event this week. I have spent time with Jay preparing for the event. He is a delightful and thoughtful person. I am looking forward to it!
Olivia Troye has been a true patriot and hero. Thanks for the link!!
Thank you, Robert. I agree with you; none of us need to be told the race is close. There is a time in every campaign when it is wise to beware of unearned optimism. We are past that time. Our optimism has been earned. Nearly everyone I know has done something to help win this election. They’ve participated in phone or text banking, sent postcards, knocked on doors, and almost certainly donated money. None are sleeping on this race. This is the time in the campaign when we loudly and proudly say to ourselves and everyone around us that we will win this thing and mean it.
I feel optimistic whenever I hear Kamala Harris speak, even if she’s giving her standard stump speech. She seems comfortable in her skin and confident in her campaign. She connects with disaffected Republicans but still looks right at home talking to the rank and file at Union halls. She and her team have run one of the best campaigns I’ve seen in my forty-plus years of involvement in politics. We have the candidate and the movement, and as long as this enthusiasm shows up at the polls, we will win.
I’m saving your comment to read and refer to… if I should falter. Thank you.
If it helps, I wrote it for the same reason. Like all of us, I’m not immune to anxious moments.
Those are brick-breaking words!! Inspiring!!! Harris has been remarkable as Trump has turned to putrid mush....And she did her share to put him where he is. Harris is a truly gifted leader and will only grow more into the role over time.
Thanks, Robert, for calling out the mischievous efforts of the insurrectionists to instrumentalize the current quagmire in the Middle East. The perfidious script written up by Hamas has worked out beautifully so far. The cherry on the top, of course, though probably unintended on Oct 7, would be the return of the felon to the White House. A dream for the Mullahs in Teheran as well as Putin, nothing better than that to bring the "big Satan" to its knees.
Let's just hope that neither Jewish nor Muslim voters fall for it. Thanks for providing the link to the instructive piece of the Michigan Advance. In case readers have missed it – please go back to Robert's letter and click on the link. A textbook example of MAGA's deceptive, despicable, billionaire financed campaign strategy. All of it courtesy of SCOTUS' Citizens United decision, of course.
Yes, that was the link I clicked on and I was appalled by what I read. I shared the article with my MA friend who has been canvassing in PA for months, wondering if she has seen anything similar there.
And I wonder where else MuskMoney is twisting the truth like that.
Hang in there folks ... and my thanks to everyone who is doing anything to forward our cause - Democracy!!
A CIVIQS survey (“What is your honest opinion of Kamala Harris?”) led me to try to put into words why I support Kamala:
The smartest, toughest, most competent candidate ever, with the courage and intelligence to take on the enemies - both foreign and domestic, but particularly the latter - of Democracy and of the American values embedded (however imperfectly) in our founding documents. She tells the truth, opposes tyranny and fascism, has compassion for all and works tirelessly on behalf of equality for all Americans. She stands up to oligarchs who think their money makes them more important than the rest of us. She fights for all of us, and she will bring a new and higher level of competence and skilled diplomacy to the office of President. She aligns with the great leaders this country has been fortunate to know (Washington, Lincoln, FDR, Biden) and she stands for truth, justice and inclusion of all Americans.
She's going to surprise a lot of people on Nov.5; the fruits of our grassroots labor will sweep the miserable felon off the stage for good in 17 days.
Tom, I applaud and appreciate your excellent description of our candidate, Kamala Harris! When I share Robert's substack today, I plan to encourage people to read the comments, mentioning several, including yours, by name. Thank you!
I live in a rural area in North Carolina and volunteer at our local Democratic Headquarters. Despite the hurricane that came over us, I've witnessed no decrease in enthusiasm and determination in Democratic voters. Quite the opposite. We are continuing to get new volunteers every day at our Democratic Headquarters. And we put them to work immediately canvassing, phone banking, or poll greeting.
One thought I've had is this: I would bet there are more Republicans voting for Harris/Walz than Democrats voting for Trump/Vance. That shift bodes in our favor.
Marilynn: Your "one thought..."I would bet there are more Republicans voting for Harris/Walz than Democrats voting for Trump/Vance" has to be accurate, and skews everything, slightly in our favor especially in highly contested close races.
There will be Democrats voting for Trump/Vance? Maybe mis-checking their ballot? LOL
Are you still in NC?
353,166 people came out to early vote on Day One!
I love the color BLUE!
My formerly apolitical friend and I voted yesterday in Guilford County. An hour plus wait with more young women than I have ever seen. So exciting to be part of a record turn out! Go BLUE!
I was one of them! Glorious day in Durham!
Kamala Harris's campaign is doing just fine. We already know that Trump is a danger to democracy; she does not have to keep telling us. We did not know about her plans to create a path to becoming middle class for those who are not or who are just hanging on. She is making a difference. Another thing we don't know is why Trump is cancelling appearances. If they are saying he is exhausted, he is almost certainly suffering from something much worse than that. Maybe the Wall Street Journal will tell us.
WSJ.....LOL!! Forbes and Fox, too...
I agree with you-- he's a danger, now tell us what we have to look forward to when you win.
Trump is canceling because he is out of gas and he might be more ill than known; also, I think he feels he doesn't need to "win the election" because his MAGAt army will just install him in the end. Stay tuned...
Robert - Your M78 shot looks somewhat greenish to my color challenged aging eyes. It looks pretty neat. I'm glad to hear you came through ok after the construction accident. :-)
The WSJ story quotes the professor - Rajiv Sethi - I mentioned a few days ago. In his Substack earlier in the week Sethi noted the puzzling actions on Polymarket. The evidence has developed further since then and numerous observers suspect someone in France has spent $30 million to boost the idea the betting market is seeing a Trump surge. That's pretty wild. I guess it fits in with all those "Red Wave" polls that Simon from Hopium, as well as numerous others, have noted over the past couple weeks. That's some serious money being spent to create an image. Combine that with the counter-narrative with the media and I guess one result is a stress test for Kamala supporters. Add in the strange behaviors with Trump's appearances and you have to wonder where we'll be in 7 and 14 days. Things seem to keep getting weirder and more tense practically every day now.
It certainly helps my nerves to hear of all the positive signs with Kamala and the rest of the D campaign. That helps break the addictive impulse to keep looking at the polls. Ok...it at least helps resist the impulse!
On the greenish color---I saw it as blue until you said green, now I cannot unsee a greenish tint. Green in nebulae can be generated by ionizing oxygen or sulfur. But green is rare, especially without a narrow band filter. After your comment, I thought the green tint was a processing mistake. And then I searched for reference photos of M78 and some show a strong green color in the interior. See https://media.gettyimages.com/id/179801504/photo/nasas-spitzer-space-telescope-exposes-the-depths-of-this-dusty-nebula-known-as-messier-78.jpg?b=1&s=594x594&w=0&k=20&c=3RR62jUMxNT-iVLSKpiKkckMv-zDrwociFpKGg_YSW4=
It's all theater, fake appearances....Like Trump hiring unemployed actors to carry signs and cheer.... Harris will be Toto to the Orange Man behind the curtain!!!