Don’t sweat the small stuff.

August 22, 2023

          President Biden visited disaster sites in Hawaii on Monday. In recognition that a presidential visit inevitably draws attention and effort from relief and recovery efforts, Biden spoke briefly (ten minutes) before handing the microphone to Hawaii Governor Josh Green. The president typically speaks in the last position after a series of speeches by local officials. On Monday, Biden spoke first and got out of the way. In his brief remarks, the president sought to assure survivors that the federal government will seek to preserve and restore the land to the survivors in a way that respects Hawaiian customs.

          Biden said, in part,

We’re going to rebuild the way people of Maui want to build. We will be respectful of your sacred grounds and the traditions.

          The NYTimes provided extensive coverage of Biden’s visit, here: NYTimes, Biden Vows to ‘Rebuild the Way People of Maui Want to Build’. (This article should be accessible to all.)

          As noted yesterday, there is no “good” way to conduct a presidential visit when hundreds of possible victims remain missing. Biden managed to strike the balance in a way that demonstrated his empathy while staying out of the way. But when it came time to visit with grieving families, Biden stayed for an hour to speak privately with dozens of survivors who lost family members in the fire. It was an act of grace and humanity appropriate to the somber occasion. Few presidents have possessed the ability to connect on a personal level with Americans shaken by tragedy. Biden does. He is a rarity in that regard. He is a good man, and we are lucky to have him as our president at this time in our history.

          As President Biden was discharging the duties of the presidency with decorum and decency, the GOP’s dysfunction and criminality are roiling domestic politics during the dog days of summer that typically mark the slow point of the annual news cycle. Not so with Trump's “take no prisoners” approach to politics in which every day represents a new battle to be won or lost.

Trump's lawyers agree to bail conditions for Trump in Georgia prosecution.

          Former president Donald Trump's lawyers negotiated bail conditions in advance of Trump's arrest later this week. [That sentence is worth re-reading because there will NEVER be another president who will negotiate a bail agreement in advance of an arrest.] See generally Politico, Trump’s bond set at $200,000 in Georgia election-related case.

          The most important conditions in the bond order impose restrictions on Trump's ability to discuss the case and communicate with codefendants. The order is here: The Hill, Read: Trump bond order in Georgia case. The main provisions include the following:

(4) The Defendant shall perform no act to intimidate any person known to him or her to be a codefendant or witness in this case or to otherwise obstruct the administration of justice.

This shall include, but is not limited to, the following:

a. The Defendant shall make no direct or indirect threat of any nature against any codefendant.

The Defendant shall make no direct or indirect threat of any nature against any witness including, but not limited to, the individuals designated in the Indictment as an unindicated co-conspirators Individual 1 through Individual 30;

The Defendant shall make no direct or indirect threat of any nature against any victim;

The Defendant shall make no direct or indirect threat of any nature against the community or to any property in the community;

The above shall include, but are not limited to, posts on social media or reposts of posts made by another individual on social media;

(5) The Defendant shall not communicate in any way, directly or indirectly, about the facts of this case with any person known to him to be a codefendant in this case except through his or her counsel.

          The probability that Trump will violate the terms of his bond order in the next two weeks is 100%. The only question is whether the state court judge appointed by Republican Governor Brian Kemp will enforce the terms of the bond order.

          Republicans in the Georgia legislature are worried that Trump will be muzzled by the state court judge and so are taking matters into their own hands to protect Trump. GOP state representative Collin Rugg has asked Governor Brian Kemp to call a special session of the Georgia legislature so that he can call for her impeachment. But because Republicans do not control 2/3rd of the seats in the state senate, the legislature will not be able to impeach and remove Fani Willis from her job. See Fact Check, Does The Georgia State Legislature Have The Power To Impeach DA Fani Willis?

          But Georgia legislators have a second mechanism to remove Willis under a new law that will go into effect in October. The law allows legislators to file a complaint with a state commission, which then investigates the respondent to determine if they have committed dereliction of duty by refusing to enforce Georgia law. When the law was passed, the governor claimed that it was intended to remove local district attorneys who refused to enforce drug laws, juvenile delinquency laws, and abortion laws. See The Guardian, (May 5, 2023) Georgia governor signs bill that allows removal of district attorneys.

          Although the law was not intended to allow the legislature to punish prosecutors for partisan reasons, at least one Georgia lawmaker is willing to file a complaint against Willis when the law takes effect in October. See Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Republican Georgia lawmaker eyes new panel as way to punish Fani Willis over Trump indictments.

          Although the odds are low that Willis will be impeached or removed by the commission, we should put nothing past Republican legislators in Georgia. The surest way to hold Trump accountable is to ensure that he is defeated in his bid for the presidency. He will then be subject to criminal jeopardy in four jurisdictions—including two state jurisdictions where pardons will be highly unlikely and two federal districts where no Democratic president will pardon him. See Newsweek, Donald Trump's Chances of Pardons in Four Legal Battles Explained.

          As always, the route to holding Trump accountable for his crimes runs through the ballot box.

House Freedom Caucus signals intent to block budget.

          To comply with its constitutional duties, the House should pass a budget by October 1, 2023 (or before, to give the Senate time to act on the legislation). To date, the House has passed only one of twelve appropriations bills necessary to keep the government operating after October 1, 2023.

          Last week, Kevin McCarthy told members of the GOP caucus that he believed it would be necessary to pass a “continuing resolution” to keep the government running after October 1. A “continuing resolution” keeps the government funded at the current year’s budget levels while Congress attempts to pass a new budget.

          On Monday, the House Freedom Caucus sent a letter to Kevin McCarthy saying that they will not support a continuing resolution unless it “address[es] the unprecedented weaponization of the Justice Department and FBI” and “end[s] the Left’s cancerous woke policies in the Pentagon.” See WaPo, House Freedom Caucus says it won’t support stopgap funding bill without conditions.

          The Freedom Caucus’s demands are widely regarded as code for “de-funding special counsel Jack Smith” and prohibiting the military from paying for travel expenses for soldiers who must travel for reproductive care.

          Democrats in the House are already positioning themselves to (rightly) assign blame to Republicans for a government shutdown.

          Sigh. Americans don’t deserve a government that lurches from crisis to crisis. Or rather, they deserve a government that is able to perform basic functions like passing a budget on time.

          We need not collapse the next two-and-half months of budget negotiations into today’s newsletter, but possible outcomes include a bi-partisan continuing resolution—which will likely spell the end of Kevin McCarthy’s Speakership. But in the end, Republicans and Democrats must come together to pass a budget.

The first Republican debate.

          The first Republican debate will be held Wednesday in Milwaukee at 9:00 PM to 11:00 PM Eastern. It will be televised exclusively by Fox News. I won’t watch the debate live (I’m sorry, I just can’t subject myself to that level of hypocrisy and lying for two hours.) But I will be watching MSNBC’s post-debate analysis and will report on the commentary.

          The moderators will be Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum, and the participants will be:

• Ron DeSantis

• Tim Scott

• Nikki Haley

• Vivek Ramaswamy

• Chris Christie

• Doug Burgum

• Mike Pence

• Asa Hutchinson

Two events for reader engagement.

          Force Multiplier.

          Our friends at Force Multiplier are hosting a panel of vulnerable House incumbents on August 22nd at 7:00 PM Eastern. Join a Zoom conference with freshman representatives Andrea Salinas (OR-06), Dr. Yadira Caraveo (CO-08) and third-term Congressman Frank Mrvan (IN-01).   

          All three won by narrow margins in 2022 and will face tough battles in 2024.  Early money is critical to plan spending effectively, reserving media time, and set a high bar for opponents. You will have the opportunity to hear from all three and participate in a robust Q&A. Register and donate here. All donations go to the candidates’ Act Blue accounts. 

Walk the Walk USA.

Join us for the official Walk the Walk USA kickoff event for the 2023-24 election cycle. Come learn what we can do together to hold the Presidency and U.S. Senate, flip the U.S. House, build power in state legislatures, and continue our work toward a more just and equitable society. Bring a friend (or two or three!) on Sunday, August 27th at 5:00 PM Pacific / 8:00 PM Eastern. Sign up here: Meeting Registration - Zoom

Concluding Thoughts.

          Apart from discussing Trump's bail conditions, I deliberately refrained from reporting on several procedural developments in Trump's criminal trials that could become significant over the long run. But the four trials will generate a steady stream (torrent?) of procedural developments that will mask the true progress toward justice.

          David Kurtz of Talking Points Memo published a short article on this phenomenon on Monday, which provides sound advice for everyone trying to make it through the next two years in one piece. See TPM,  How Not To Get Overinvested In The Trump Prosecutions.

          Kurtz notes that “It’s somewhat of an irony that the due process afforded to a criminal defendant is itself designed to protect the rule of law,” but obscures the substance of the proceedings against Trump. In short, the procedural jousting can increase frustration levels of people who want to skip ahead to the part where Trump is convicted and imprisoned. Kurtz continues,

The vindication of the rule of law takes time and isn’t always pretty. So take a deep breath. Keep your eye on the big picture. Don’t live and die on each procedural ruling. Don’t overinvest in the small stuff.

          That’s good advice in general, but particularly apt where a single defendant faces four criminal trials and two civil trials in the next eighteen months. The trials will matter, as will rulings on motions to dismiss. Rely on commentators like Joyce Vance | Substack to distill the significance of procedural developments. Otherwise, focus on the election. You can affect the outcome of the election but can’t affect the outcome of the trials. By letting go of worry over external events you cannot control, you will be more effective (and calmer) in helping Democrats win in 2024.

          Talk to you tomorrow!