The pollsters never have much impact on my thinking. First, their sample size is rarely big enough. I don't care what the "science" of polling is, margin of error averages, etc. Don't tell me what's going to happen by asking 1500 people.
And...
The vote on November 8th is not just about some local races (important!) and who will go to Congress. It is a referendum on:
1. The rule of law and who it should apply to
2. Responsibility for a coup attempt and continuing coup attempts
3. Lies about insurrectionists
4. A woman's right to autonomy - reproductive freedom
5. Lies about election fraud
6. A political party that wants us to hate others
7. Lies about immigrants
8. A political party that wants to assert it's religious nonsense as national law
9. Lies about the lies
10. Fascism or freedom
11. Treason or democracy
13. Rigged gerrymandering and the value of one vote/one person
14. Lies about libraries, CRT and being "woke"
15. A former president who steals top secret documents including nuclear information
16. Support of Putin and Orban (you go Tucker, dig your grave a little deeper)
17. Collecting taxes from the rich and corporations - finally!
18. Investments in infrastructure - finally!
19. Bringing home technology outsourced by the Oligarchs
20. Supporting our troops after exposing them to toxic chemicals (GQP voted against out of spite!)
On the emotional scale, I think #4 and #20 may actually be the biggest motivators. There is an engine of righteous indignation and outrage gathering steam. The whacko haters have gone too far. There will be a tsunami of blue voting. Not everywhere, not enough to crush all the hate. But I truly believe there are more of us and those who are in the "convincible middle" than the GQP crazies.
And a lot can happen in 56 days.
Also, that little gathering of "golf buddies"....could that be a plan to exit the US and plot future coups from a remote location? They are circling the wagons to plan something...
OK, I’m going to draw the obvious parallels between the Ukrainians and our effort to GOTV, and sweep the midterms.
Check out the dogged determination of the grassroots organizers and the citizens of Wisconsin in this 17 min documentary on a special election in April of 2020, the scariest most dangerous moment of the pandemic. Republicans tried to weaponize Covid to suppress the vote in Wisconsin. Grassroots organizers turned to relational organizing and won nevertheless. Watch this inspiring documentary and decide how you will volunteer to GOTV in 2022. We can do this!
Also, if you don't have time to canvass and hate to phone bank, and are wondering where is the most effective place to donate $$, consider Flip the Vote, an awesome organization that I volunteer for https://www.flipthevote.org/donate
FtV raises money for grassroots organizations in precisely the swing districts that helped seal Biden's victory in 2020. BLOC, which was highlighted in Dress Rehearsal, the documentary I shared, is one of those organizations supported by Flip the Vote. If you watched the video you get a sense of why grassroots organizations are the most effective at GOTV. People open doors and pick up the phone when a trusted messenger from their own community is on the other side.
I write postcards for the Center for Common ground and have signed up to phone bank with them this week, but I honestly feel that the money I donate to Flip the Vote is the most effective action I take to GOTV.
Sure thing, Donna. I love that so much good information on activism gets shared in this forum.
I will share the same information I just shared with Tyler above. If you are interested in learning more about Flip the Vote, I'm co-hosting a virtual house party for them next Sunday 9/18 from 5-6 Pacific time. It's a great way to learn more about Flip the Vote and the grassroots organizations that they support. Please don't feel big pressure to make a donation. We think the important thing is to spread the word about reframing how we make political donations. This is always a very inspiring evening. Would be happy to have you join! Here's the link: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/flip-the-vote-house-party-tickets-401650426237
If you can't attend my party next Sunday, Flip the Vote has regular open house parties that they announce on their events page. https://www.flipthevote.org/events
I am actually co-hosting with a virtual house party for Flip the Vote next Sunday 9/18 from 5-6 Pacific time. It's a great way to learn more about Flip the Vote and the grassroots organizations that they support. Please don't feel big pressure to make a donation. We think the important thing is to spread the word about reframing how we make political donations. This is always a very inspiring evening. Would be happy to have you join! Here's the link: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/flip-the-vote-house-party-tickets-401650426237
If you can't attend my party next Sunday, Flip the Vote has regular open house parties that they announce on their events page. https://www.flipthevote.org/events
I highly recommend the documentary that Cindy noted - DRESS REHEARSAL. It is an inspiring 17 minute film on the WI Supreme Court election. Relational organizing, which is what grass roots organizations do - gets out the vote. The Movement Voter Project (https://movement.vote/) raises funds to move to local grassroots organizations in key states for local, state, and federal elections. There are many ways to get involved. You can learn more this evening (Wednesday SEP 14) in a National Briefing - https://www.mobilize.us/mvp/event/498180/?utm_source=siteEventsPage.
Robert is so right: "We must focus on executing our strategy." Queen, DOJ, why is Trump in DC--we have many distractions of news items over which we have no control.
First, an inspirational warm-up, our new "I am Woman hear me roar" anthem for 2022, courtesy of Sheryl Lee Ralph:
Now with only 3 WEEKS left to provide meaningful help for candidates ahead of the November election, here is what we can do. Our Tending to Democracy Giving Circle is hosting a virtual Town Hall with guests Melissa Walker (Robert had a great interview with her in January!) and David Pepper (Laboratories of Autocracy) this Sunday, September 18, 5:00 pm PDT. You can learn more about the most effective way to donate to campaigns. For more information or to register for the Zoom:
I watch a commentator, Texas Paul on Meidas Touch. Quite frankly, I enjoy his rants. However, he says one thing nearly every time he appears. Check your voter registration. I live in NC with a nefarious state legislature, dominated by Republicans who will stop at nothing to retain power. I will not assume anything this election year; the stakes are too high. So I will check my voter registration to be sure everything is ok.
Sep 13, 2022·edited Sep 13, 2022Liked by Robert B. Hubbell
On moving quickly; Indigenous Knowledge Keepers teach that we learn something new every day. During a talk Chad Kalepa said, 'Any place he is heading to he must be given. He is making all of the landfalls." Kalepa was speaking about the hazardous sailing of the Hawaiian canoe the Hokule`a around the world, using star navigation and about the navigator Nainoa Thompson. He later says, we use all of this, meaning they use the military base to sleep as offered, in Brazil because the harbor is dangerous.
One of the amazing things I am learning as time goes by, is that when I am working on something I am given things every day. Today I had a huge breakthrough, had to write it as soon as I got up, and didn't even know I knew it. For this reason I bring up the traditional ecological knowledge of Indigenous peoples because their science is based on this principle. Garland Merrick appears to be a patient person.
Regardless of how pundits call the upcoming elections - the only sure-fire way to help a desired outcome is to VOTE. Don't be caught unaware if you have recently moved or have a chance of being out of town on Nov 8th. Follow the rules - even if they have been recently changed.
It's like a friend of mine said about our war: "We were fighting to survive and go home and they were fighting for their country. Is the outcome so surprising?"
And assessments of the Ukrainian army were being made before the invasion and before the volunteers who were motivated and eager to learn and serve to protect their country and way of life.
The truth is, "motivation" is something that cannot be determined until it is demonstrated. Before World War I, the French Army stressed "fighting spirit." It turned out that was hard to find when one was ordered to charge machine guns.
The pace of the DOJ investigation may—may—turn out to be a good thing, if it keeps T___p’s crimes and incompetence front and center right up to November 8th. And the DOJ policy of not indicting major political figures within 6O days of an election may help, too. I’d say more, but I’m about to start a session manning the phones for NH Democrats’ election protection on this primary day.
Laws are only as good as the people who support and administer them. We've allowed a lot of corruption and dishonesty into the process, and responsible/ethical people have always had to clean up the messes of the irresponsible, dishonest, and corrupt. It takes a lot longer, and a lot more money, time, skill and effort to build a good house than it does to tear it down. We're tasked with that work, and getting good at it; thankfully there are people of integrity and real values willing to do this work. I'm proud to be on this team.
The supposed expertise of the polling industry, like that of the political consultancy, is accepted more by journalists and the pollsters themselves than by anyone else and one wonders what would happen if everyone in government ignored them completely, stopped paying for their frequently erroneous work and, instead, went out and talked directly to their constituents. If nothing else, it would be a calmer and less volatile world and I have no objection to that possibility.
Great job on this newsletter, Robert! I really appreciate what you packed into it and how you expressed your opinions. It was a very good way to start my day. Thank you for continuing to do the heavy lifting. I don't take it for granted.
Love the last two paras likening the handicaps experts face in predicting midterm results to those they face in predicting the Russia-Ukraine outcome. Motivation is huge, as the army under George Washington demonstrated more than 200 years ago.
A murder of crows, a parliament of owls, and now a "flight of subpoenas".
Nineteen states with one or both of the state law making bodies being Dem controlled means that the rest are all both GOP controlled and some of the 19 are at least partially GOP. That doesn't mean there is more threat than discussed (thanks for that reassurance) but it really underlines how badly we need to vote blue in each and every office up and down the ballots from here on out for awhile - no office is too small and in the past we forgot that.
I'm originally from Kiev, Ukraine. From your mouth, Robert, to God's ears😉. This whole situation there and here also reminds me of The Lord of the Rings and what it took for the GOOD to prevail. Trying to NOT hold my breath these days for too long at a stretch.☺
Great piece, Robert! I feel like this is one of the only places I can go online and read sense.
I am so sick and tired of people basing predictions on “historical trends” when we’ve been watching anything but normal for years now. Wake up pundits!! Why is it so hard for them to understand? Why are top journalists struggling so much with this moment in time & the danger the right is threatening?
I’m just glad those of us on the ground aren’t giving it much credence and just focusing on the work at hand.
When one side is fighting for their freedom and right to live as they so choose, there’s no contest with the other side who only has an idea of what they want & wants to impose that idea on everyone else. The right is losing the fight because they have nothing concrete to fight FOR, just like Putin’s army. As much as they love to squawk about their rights being taken away, nothing like that ever comes close to happening like Dobbs.
After almost 2 years, it finally feels like the rubber is meeting the road all around us. Theirs is a house of cards, destined to crumble under the weight of all their lies. There’s no way it could last, it was just a question of how long.
Let’s hope 2022 is the beginning of the end for this fascists version of the GOP.
My distrust of polls proves justified. I am so encouraged by the Ukraine front, and the DOJ subpoenas reported by Heather Richardson this morning. Your legal analysis of the power of state legislatures gives me even more heart!
The pollsters never have much impact on my thinking. First, their sample size is rarely big enough. I don't care what the "science" of polling is, margin of error averages, etc. Don't tell me what's going to happen by asking 1500 people.
And...
The vote on November 8th is not just about some local races (important!) and who will go to Congress. It is a referendum on:
1. The rule of law and who it should apply to
2. Responsibility for a coup attempt and continuing coup attempts
3. Lies about insurrectionists
4. A woman's right to autonomy - reproductive freedom
5. Lies about election fraud
6. A political party that wants us to hate others
7. Lies about immigrants
8. A political party that wants to assert it's religious nonsense as national law
9. Lies about the lies
10. Fascism or freedom
11. Treason or democracy
13. Rigged gerrymandering and the value of one vote/one person
14. Lies about libraries, CRT and being "woke"
15. A former president who steals top secret documents including nuclear information
16. Support of Putin and Orban (you go Tucker, dig your grave a little deeper)
17. Collecting taxes from the rich and corporations - finally!
18. Investments in infrastructure - finally!
19. Bringing home technology outsourced by the Oligarchs
20. Supporting our troops after exposing them to toxic chemicals (GQP voted against out of spite!)
On the emotional scale, I think #4 and #20 may actually be the biggest motivators. There is an engine of righteous indignation and outrage gathering steam. The whacko haters have gone too far. There will be a tsunami of blue voting. Not everywhere, not enough to crush all the hate. But I truly believe there are more of us and those who are in the "convincible middle" than the GQP crazies.
And a lot can happen in 56 days.
Also, that little gathering of "golf buddies"....could that be a plan to exit the US and plot future coups from a remote location? They are circling the wagons to plan something...
Excellent list, Bill. The "golf" buddies who weren't playing golf are definitely plotting something that will not be good for America.
OK, I’m going to draw the obvious parallels between the Ukrainians and our effort to GOTV, and sweep the midterms.
Check out the dogged determination of the grassroots organizers and the citizens of Wisconsin in this 17 min documentary on a special election in April of 2020, the scariest most dangerous moment of the pandemic. Republicans tried to weaponize Covid to suppress the vote in Wisconsin. Grassroots organizers turned to relational organizing and won nevertheless. Watch this inspiring documentary and decide how you will volunteer to GOTV in 2022. We can do this!
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=vSSlxVMyKkk
Also, if you don't have time to canvass and hate to phone bank, and are wondering where is the most effective place to donate $$, consider Flip the Vote, an awesome organization that I volunteer for https://www.flipthevote.org/donate
FtV raises money for grassroots organizations in precisely the swing districts that helped seal Biden's victory in 2020. BLOC, which was highlighted in Dress Rehearsal, the documentary I shared, is one of those organizations supported by Flip the Vote. If you watched the video you get a sense of why grassroots organizations are the most effective at GOTV. People open doors and pick up the phone when a trusted messenger from their own community is on the other side.
I write postcards for the Center for Common ground and have signed up to phone bank with them this week, but I honestly feel that the money I donate to Flip the Vote is the most effective action I take to GOTV.
Thank you for another good suggestion.
Sure thing, Donna. I love that so much good information on activism gets shared in this forum.
I will share the same information I just shared with Tyler above. If you are interested in learning more about Flip the Vote, I'm co-hosting a virtual house party for them next Sunday 9/18 from 5-6 Pacific time. It's a great way to learn more about Flip the Vote and the grassroots organizations that they support. Please don't feel big pressure to make a donation. We think the important thing is to spread the word about reframing how we make political donations. This is always a very inspiring evening. Would be happy to have you join! Here's the link: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/flip-the-vote-house-party-tickets-401650426237
If you can't attend my party next Sunday, Flip the Vote has regular open house parties that they announce on their events page. https://www.flipthevote.org/events
Thanks, Cindy. That time might not work for me, but maybe I’ll be able to work it out. It sounds like a good organization.
Thanks so much for the info about Flip the Vote. I’ll be researching them today.
Hi again Tyler,
I am actually co-hosting with a virtual house party for Flip the Vote next Sunday 9/18 from 5-6 Pacific time. It's a great way to learn more about Flip the Vote and the grassroots organizations that they support. Please don't feel big pressure to make a donation. We think the important thing is to spread the word about reframing how we make political donations. This is always a very inspiring evening. Would be happy to have you join! Here's the link: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/flip-the-vote-house-party-tickets-401650426237
If you can't attend my party next Sunday, Flip the Vote has regular open house parties that they announce on their events page. https://www.flipthevote.org/events
Great video! Thanks for the link!
I highly recommend the documentary that Cindy noted - DRESS REHEARSAL. It is an inspiring 17 minute film on the WI Supreme Court election. Relational organizing, which is what grass roots organizations do - gets out the vote. The Movement Voter Project (https://movement.vote/) raises funds to move to local grassroots organizations in key states for local, state, and federal elections. There are many ways to get involved. You can learn more this evening (Wednesday SEP 14) in a National Briefing - https://www.mobilize.us/mvp/event/498180/?utm_source=siteEventsPage.
Postcards for Jill ❣️
Robert is so right: "We must focus on executing our strategy." Queen, DOJ, why is Trump in DC--we have many distractions of news items over which we have no control.
First, an inspirational warm-up, our new "I am Woman hear me roar" anthem for 2022, courtesy of Sheryl Lee Ralph:
https://twitter.com/ungodlywests/status/1569488118293700609?s=20&t=4unJFUMy3qgIb2dRlNSJxA
Now with only 3 WEEKS left to provide meaningful help for candidates ahead of the November election, here is what we can do. Our Tending to Democracy Giving Circle is hosting a virtual Town Hall with guests Melissa Walker (Robert had a great interview with her in January!) and David Pepper (Laboratories of Autocracy) this Sunday, September 18, 5:00 pm PDT. You can learn more about the most effective way to donate to campaigns. For more information or to register for the Zoom:
https://www.grapevine.org/giving-circle/1XQhnyD/Tending-to-Democracy
Thank you, and bring a friend!
I watch a commentator, Texas Paul on Meidas Touch. Quite frankly, I enjoy his rants. However, he says one thing nearly every time he appears. Check your voter registration. I live in NC with a nefarious state legislature, dominated by Republicans who will stop at nothing to retain power. I will not assume anything this election year; the stakes are too high. So I will check my voter registration to be sure everything is ok.
Thanks, JennSH. Was going to be "complacent" about my status here in VA, but your comment will have me checking my voter registration, too.
On moving quickly; Indigenous Knowledge Keepers teach that we learn something new every day. During a talk Chad Kalepa said, 'Any place he is heading to he must be given. He is making all of the landfalls." Kalepa was speaking about the hazardous sailing of the Hawaiian canoe the Hokule`a around the world, using star navigation and about the navigator Nainoa Thompson. He later says, we use all of this, meaning they use the military base to sleep as offered, in Brazil because the harbor is dangerous.
One of the amazing things I am learning as time goes by, is that when I am working on something I am given things every day. Today I had a huge breakthrough, had to write it as soon as I got up, and didn't even know I knew it. For this reason I bring up the traditional ecological knowledge of Indigenous peoples because their science is based on this principle. Garland Merrick appears to be a patient person.
Thank You. He surely is.
Regardless of how pundits call the upcoming elections - the only sure-fire way to help a desired outcome is to VOTE. Don't be caught unaware if you have recently moved or have a chance of being out of town on Nov 8th. Follow the rules - even if they have been recently changed.
Yes!
And use all the influence you can muster to get friends, neighbors and family to vote as well.
It's like a friend of mine said about our war: "We were fighting to survive and go home and they were fighting for their country. Is the outcome so surprising?"
Yes, indeed. When you say "our war", don't you really mean "wars"?
I'm talking about the one I was in. Our generation's war. Yes, the others since - Iraq and Afghanistan - have been the same dynamic.
And assessments of the Ukrainian army were being made before the invasion and before the volunteers who were motivated and eager to learn and serve to protect their country and way of life.
The truth is, "motivation" is something that cannot be determined until it is demonstrated. Before World War I, the French Army stressed "fighting spirit." It turned out that was hard to find when one was ordered to charge machine guns.
Motivation, fighting spirit, sanity and a desire to be effective - I guess it's all a brew. Living to fight another day is probably a good idea.
The pace of the DOJ investigation may—may—turn out to be a good thing, if it keeps T___p’s crimes and incompetence front and center right up to November 8th. And the DOJ policy of not indicting major political figures within 6O days of an election may help, too. I’d say more, but I’m about to start a session manning the phones for NH Democrats’ election protection on this primary day.
Laws are only as good as the people who support and administer them. We've allowed a lot of corruption and dishonesty into the process, and responsible/ethical people have always had to clean up the messes of the irresponsible, dishonest, and corrupt. It takes a lot longer, and a lot more money, time, skill and effort to build a good house than it does to tear it down. We're tasked with that work, and getting good at it; thankfully there are people of integrity and real values willing to do this work. I'm proud to be on this team.
The supposed expertise of the polling industry, like that of the political consultancy, is accepted more by journalists and the pollsters themselves than by anyone else and one wonders what would happen if everyone in government ignored them completely, stopped paying for their frequently erroneous work and, instead, went out and talked directly to their constituents. If nothing else, it would be a calmer and less volatile world and I have no objection to that possibility.
Great job on this newsletter, Robert! I really appreciate what you packed into it and how you expressed your opinions. It was a very good way to start my day. Thank you for continuing to do the heavy lifting. I don't take it for granted.
Love the last two paras likening the handicaps experts face in predicting midterm results to those they face in predicting the Russia-Ukraine outcome. Motivation is huge, as the army under George Washington demonstrated more than 200 years ago.
A murder of crows, a parliament of owls, and now a "flight of subpoenas".
Nineteen states with one or both of the state law making bodies being Dem controlled means that the rest are all both GOP controlled and some of the 19 are at least partially GOP. That doesn't mean there is more threat than discussed (thanks for that reassurance) but it really underlines how badly we need to vote blue in each and every office up and down the ballots from here on out for awhile - no office is too small and in the past we forgot that.
Thanks for noticing the "flight of subpoenas."
I'm originally from Kiev, Ukraine. From your mouth, Robert, to God's ears😉. This whole situation there and here also reminds me of The Lord of the Rings and what it took for the GOOD to prevail. Trying to NOT hold my breath these days for too long at a stretch.☺
Great piece, Robert! I feel like this is one of the only places I can go online and read sense.
I am so sick and tired of people basing predictions on “historical trends” when we’ve been watching anything but normal for years now. Wake up pundits!! Why is it so hard for them to understand? Why are top journalists struggling so much with this moment in time & the danger the right is threatening?
I’m just glad those of us on the ground aren’t giving it much credence and just focusing on the work at hand.
When one side is fighting for their freedom and right to live as they so choose, there’s no contest with the other side who only has an idea of what they want & wants to impose that idea on everyone else. The right is losing the fight because they have nothing concrete to fight FOR, just like Putin’s army. As much as they love to squawk about their rights being taken away, nothing like that ever comes close to happening like Dobbs.
After almost 2 years, it finally feels like the rubber is meeting the road all around us. Theirs is a house of cards, destined to crumble under the weight of all their lies. There’s no way it could last, it was just a question of how long.
Let’s hope 2022 is the beginning of the end for this fascists version of the GOP.
So true Danielle! We have an uphill climb but we have momentum and passion for saving our democracy - as threatened as it is!
My distrust of polls proves justified. I am so encouraged by the Ukraine front, and the DOJ subpoenas reported by Heather Richardson this morning. Your legal analysis of the power of state legislatures gives me even more heart!
Ah the pollsters gazing into their crystal balls with faulty lenses!
Another excellent report! Much appreciated!