The pollsters never have much impact on my thinking. First, their sample size is rarely big enough. I don't care what the "science" of polling is, margin of error averages, etc. Don't tell me what's going to happen by asking 1500 people.
And...
The vote on November 8th is not just about some local races (important!) and who will go to Congress. It is a referendum on:
1. The rule of law and who it should apply to
2. Responsibility for a coup attempt and continuing coup attempts
3. Lies about insurrectionists
4. A woman's right to autonomy - reproductive freedom
5. Lies about election fraud
6. A political party that wants us to hate others
7. Lies about immigrants
8. A political party that wants to assert it's religious nonsense as national law
9. Lies about the lies
10. Fascism or freedom
11. Treason or democracy
13. Rigged gerrymandering and the value of one vote/one person
14. Lies about libraries, CRT and being "woke"
15. A former president who steals top secret documents including nuclear information
16. Support of Putin and Orban (you go Tucker, dig your grave a little deeper)
17. Collecting taxes from the rich and corporations - finally!
18. Investments in infrastructure - finally!
19. Bringing home technology outsourced by the Oligarchs
20. Supporting our troops after exposing them to toxic chemicals (GQP voted against out of spite!)
On the emotional scale, I think #4 and #20 may actually be the biggest motivators. There is an engine of righteous indignation and outrage gathering steam. The whacko haters have gone too far. There will be a tsunami of blue voting. Not everywhere, not enough to crush all the hate. But I truly believe there are more of us and those who are in the "convincible middle" than the GQP crazies.
And a lot can happen in 56 days.
Also, that little gathering of "golf buddies"....could that be a plan to exit the US and plot future coups from a remote location? They are circling the wagons to plan something...
OK, I’m going to draw the obvious parallels between the Ukrainians and our effort to GOTV, and sweep the midterms.
Check out the dogged determination of the grassroots organizers and the citizens of Wisconsin in this 17 min documentary on a special election in April of 2020, the scariest most dangerous moment of the pandemic. Republicans tried to weaponize Covid to suppress the vote in Wisconsin. Grassroots organizers turned to relational organizing and won nevertheless. Watch this inspiring documentary and decide how you will volunteer to GOTV in 2022. We can do this!
Robert is so right: "We must focus on executing our strategy." Queen, DOJ, why is Trump in DC--we have many distractions of news items over which we have no control.
First, an inspirational warm-up, our new "I am Woman hear me roar" anthem for 2022, courtesy of Sheryl Lee Ralph:
Now with only 3 WEEKS left to provide meaningful help for candidates ahead of the November election, here is what we can do. Our Tending to Democracy Giving Circle is hosting a virtual Town Hall with guests Melissa Walker (Robert had a great interview with her in January!) and David Pepper (Laboratories of Autocracy) this Sunday, September 18, 5:00 pm PDT. You can learn more about the most effective way to donate to campaigns. For more information or to register for the Zoom:
Sep 13, 2022·edited Sep 13, 2022Liked by Robert B. Hubbell
On moving quickly; Indigenous Knowledge Keepers teach that we learn something new every day. During a talk Chad Kalepa said, 'Any place he is heading to he must be given. He is making all of the landfalls." Kalepa was speaking about the hazardous sailing of the Hawaiian canoe the Hokule`a around the world, using star navigation and about the navigator Nainoa Thompson. He later says, we use all of this, meaning they use the military base to sleep as offered, in Brazil because the harbor is dangerous.
One of the amazing things I am learning as time goes by, is that when I am working on something I am given things every day. Today I had a huge breakthrough, had to write it as soon as I got up, and didn't even know I knew it. For this reason I bring up the traditional ecological knowledge of Indigenous peoples because their science is based on this principle. Garland Merrick appears to be a patient person.
Regardless of how pundits call the upcoming elections - the only sure-fire way to help a desired outcome is to VOTE. Don't be caught unaware if you have recently moved or have a chance of being out of town on Nov 8th. Follow the rules - even if they have been recently changed.
It's like a friend of mine said about our war: "We were fighting to survive and go home and they were fighting for their country. Is the outcome so surprising?"
The pace of the DOJ investigation may—may—turn out to be a good thing, if it keeps T___p’s crimes and incompetence front and center right up to November 8th. And the DOJ policy of not indicting major political figures within 6O days of an election may help, too. I’d say more, but I’m about to start a session manning the phones for NH Democrats’ election protection on this primary day.
Laws are only as good as the people who support and administer them. We've allowed a lot of corruption and dishonesty into the process, and responsible/ethical people have always had to clean up the messes of the irresponsible, dishonest, and corrupt. It takes a lot longer, and a lot more money, time, skill and effort to build a good house than it does to tear it down. We're tasked with that work, and getting good at it; thankfully there are people of integrity and real values willing to do this work. I'm proud to be on this team.
The supposed expertise of the polling industry, like that of the political consultancy, is accepted more by journalists and the pollsters themselves than by anyone else and one wonders what would happen if everyone in government ignored them completely, stopped paying for their frequently erroneous work and, instead, went out and talked directly to their constituents. If nothing else, it would be a calmer and less volatile world and I have no objection to that possibility.
Great job on this newsletter, Robert! I really appreciate what you packed into it and how you expressed your opinions. It was a very good way to start my day. Thank you for continuing to do the heavy lifting. I don't take it for granted.
Love the last two paras likening the handicaps experts face in predicting midterm results to those they face in predicting the Russia-Ukraine outcome. Motivation is huge, as the army under George Washington demonstrated more than 200 years ago.
A murder of crows, a parliament of owls, and now a "flight of subpoenas".
Nineteen states with one or both of the state law making bodies being Dem controlled means that the rest are all both GOP controlled and some of the 19 are at least partially GOP. That doesn't mean there is more threat than discussed (thanks for that reassurance) but it really underlines how badly we need to vote blue in each and every office up and down the ballots from here on out for awhile - no office is too small and in the past we forgot that.
I'm originally from Kiev, Ukraine. From your mouth, Robert, to God's ears😉. This whole situation there and here also reminds me of The Lord of the Rings and what it took for the GOOD to prevail. Trying to NOT hold my breath these days for too long at a stretch.☺
Great piece, Robert! I feel like this is one of the only places I can go online and read sense.
I am so sick and tired of people basing predictions on “historical trends” when we’ve been watching anything but normal for years now. Wake up pundits!! Why is it so hard for them to understand? Why are top journalists struggling so much with this moment in time & the danger the right is threatening?
I’m just glad those of us on the ground aren’t giving it much credence and just focusing on the work at hand.
When one side is fighting for their freedom and right to live as they so choose, there’s no contest with the other side who only has an idea of what they want & wants to impose that idea on everyone else. The right is losing the fight because they have nothing concrete to fight FOR, just like Putin’s army. As much as they love to squawk about their rights being taken away, nothing like that ever comes close to happening like Dobbs.
After almost 2 years, it finally feels like the rubber is meeting the road all around us. Theirs is a house of cards, destined to crumble under the weight of all their lies. There’s no way it could last, it was just a question of how long.
Let’s hope 2022 is the beginning of the end for this fascists version of the GOP.
My distrust of polls proves justified. I am so encouraged by the Ukraine front, and the DOJ subpoenas reported by Heather Richardson this morning. Your legal analysis of the power of state legislatures gives me even more heart!
The pollsters never have much impact on my thinking. First, their sample size is rarely big enough. I don't care what the "science" of polling is, margin of error averages, etc. Don't tell me what's going to happen by asking 1500 people.
And...
The vote on November 8th is not just about some local races (important!) and who will go to Congress. It is a referendum on:
1. The rule of law and who it should apply to
2. Responsibility for a coup attempt and continuing coup attempts
3. Lies about insurrectionists
4. A woman's right to autonomy - reproductive freedom
5. Lies about election fraud
6. A political party that wants us to hate others
7. Lies about immigrants
8. A political party that wants to assert it's religious nonsense as national law
9. Lies about the lies
10. Fascism or freedom
11. Treason or democracy
13. Rigged gerrymandering and the value of one vote/one person
14. Lies about libraries, CRT and being "woke"
15. A former president who steals top secret documents including nuclear information
16. Support of Putin and Orban (you go Tucker, dig your grave a little deeper)
17. Collecting taxes from the rich and corporations - finally!
18. Investments in infrastructure - finally!
19. Bringing home technology outsourced by the Oligarchs
20. Supporting our troops after exposing them to toxic chemicals (GQP voted against out of spite!)
On the emotional scale, I think #4 and #20 may actually be the biggest motivators. There is an engine of righteous indignation and outrage gathering steam. The whacko haters have gone too far. There will be a tsunami of blue voting. Not everywhere, not enough to crush all the hate. But I truly believe there are more of us and those who are in the "convincible middle" than the GQP crazies.
And a lot can happen in 56 days.
Also, that little gathering of "golf buddies"....could that be a plan to exit the US and plot future coups from a remote location? They are circling the wagons to plan something...
OK, I’m going to draw the obvious parallels between the Ukrainians and our effort to GOTV, and sweep the midterms.
Check out the dogged determination of the grassroots organizers and the citizens of Wisconsin in this 17 min documentary on a special election in April of 2020, the scariest most dangerous moment of the pandemic. Republicans tried to weaponize Covid to suppress the vote in Wisconsin. Grassroots organizers turned to relational organizing and won nevertheless. Watch this inspiring documentary and decide how you will volunteer to GOTV in 2022. We can do this!
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=vSSlxVMyKkk
Robert is so right: "We must focus on executing our strategy." Queen, DOJ, why is Trump in DC--we have many distractions of news items over which we have no control.
First, an inspirational warm-up, our new "I am Woman hear me roar" anthem for 2022, courtesy of Sheryl Lee Ralph:
https://twitter.com/ungodlywests/status/1569488118293700609?s=20&t=4unJFUMy3qgIb2dRlNSJxA
Now with only 3 WEEKS left to provide meaningful help for candidates ahead of the November election, here is what we can do. Our Tending to Democracy Giving Circle is hosting a virtual Town Hall with guests Melissa Walker (Robert had a great interview with her in January!) and David Pepper (Laboratories of Autocracy) this Sunday, September 18, 5:00 pm PDT. You can learn more about the most effective way to donate to campaigns. For more information or to register for the Zoom:
https://www.grapevine.org/giving-circle/1XQhnyD/Tending-to-Democracy
Thank you, and bring a friend!
On moving quickly; Indigenous Knowledge Keepers teach that we learn something new every day. During a talk Chad Kalepa said, 'Any place he is heading to he must be given. He is making all of the landfalls." Kalepa was speaking about the hazardous sailing of the Hawaiian canoe the Hokule`a around the world, using star navigation and about the navigator Nainoa Thompson. He later says, we use all of this, meaning they use the military base to sleep as offered, in Brazil because the harbor is dangerous.
One of the amazing things I am learning as time goes by, is that when I am working on something I am given things every day. Today I had a huge breakthrough, had to write it as soon as I got up, and didn't even know I knew it. For this reason I bring up the traditional ecological knowledge of Indigenous peoples because their science is based on this principle. Garland Merrick appears to be a patient person.
Regardless of how pundits call the upcoming elections - the only sure-fire way to help a desired outcome is to VOTE. Don't be caught unaware if you have recently moved or have a chance of being out of town on Nov 8th. Follow the rules - even if they have been recently changed.
It's like a friend of mine said about our war: "We were fighting to survive and go home and they were fighting for their country. Is the outcome so surprising?"
The pace of the DOJ investigation may—may—turn out to be a good thing, if it keeps T___p’s crimes and incompetence front and center right up to November 8th. And the DOJ policy of not indicting major political figures within 6O days of an election may help, too. I’d say more, but I’m about to start a session manning the phones for NH Democrats’ election protection on this primary day.
Laws are only as good as the people who support and administer them. We've allowed a lot of corruption and dishonesty into the process, and responsible/ethical people have always had to clean up the messes of the irresponsible, dishonest, and corrupt. It takes a lot longer, and a lot more money, time, skill and effort to build a good house than it does to tear it down. We're tasked with that work, and getting good at it; thankfully there are people of integrity and real values willing to do this work. I'm proud to be on this team.
The supposed expertise of the polling industry, like that of the political consultancy, is accepted more by journalists and the pollsters themselves than by anyone else and one wonders what would happen if everyone in government ignored them completely, stopped paying for their frequently erroneous work and, instead, went out and talked directly to their constituents. If nothing else, it would be a calmer and less volatile world and I have no objection to that possibility.
Great job on this newsletter, Robert! I really appreciate what you packed into it and how you expressed your opinions. It was a very good way to start my day. Thank you for continuing to do the heavy lifting. I don't take it for granted.
Love the last two paras likening the handicaps experts face in predicting midterm results to those they face in predicting the Russia-Ukraine outcome. Motivation is huge, as the army under George Washington demonstrated more than 200 years ago.
A murder of crows, a parliament of owls, and now a "flight of subpoenas".
Nineteen states with one or both of the state law making bodies being Dem controlled means that the rest are all both GOP controlled and some of the 19 are at least partially GOP. That doesn't mean there is more threat than discussed (thanks for that reassurance) but it really underlines how badly we need to vote blue in each and every office up and down the ballots from here on out for awhile - no office is too small and in the past we forgot that.
I'm originally from Kiev, Ukraine. From your mouth, Robert, to God's ears😉. This whole situation there and here also reminds me of The Lord of the Rings and what it took for the GOOD to prevail. Trying to NOT hold my breath these days for too long at a stretch.☺
Great piece, Robert! I feel like this is one of the only places I can go online and read sense.
I am so sick and tired of people basing predictions on “historical trends” when we’ve been watching anything but normal for years now. Wake up pundits!! Why is it so hard for them to understand? Why are top journalists struggling so much with this moment in time & the danger the right is threatening?
I’m just glad those of us on the ground aren’t giving it much credence and just focusing on the work at hand.
When one side is fighting for their freedom and right to live as they so choose, there’s no contest with the other side who only has an idea of what they want & wants to impose that idea on everyone else. The right is losing the fight because they have nothing concrete to fight FOR, just like Putin’s army. As much as they love to squawk about their rights being taken away, nothing like that ever comes close to happening like Dobbs.
After almost 2 years, it finally feels like the rubber is meeting the road all around us. Theirs is a house of cards, destined to crumble under the weight of all their lies. There’s no way it could last, it was just a question of how long.
Let’s hope 2022 is the beginning of the end for this fascists version of the GOP.
My distrust of polls proves justified. I am so encouraged by the Ukraine front, and the DOJ subpoenas reported by Heather Richardson this morning. Your legal analysis of the power of state legislatures gives me even more heart!
Ah the pollsters gazing into their crystal balls with faulty lenses!
Another excellent report! Much appreciated!