Democrats should be proud!

November 9, 2022

          It is 9:00 PM Pacific as I begin to write this evening’s newsletter and only a few races have been called. But this much is clear: Democrats have every reason to be proud of their battle in the midterms. Control of Congress still hangs in the balance, but it is unlikely that there will be a “red wave” at the national or state level. Yes, there are disappointments (Beto O’Rourke, Stacey Abrams, Tim Ryan, Val Demings, Cheri Beasley), but there are reasons for celebration—Senator Maggie Hassan defeating election denier Don Buldoc in New Hampshire and Josh Shapiro beating election denier Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania’s governor’s race. (The latter may be key in protecting the integrity of the 2024 presidential election.) Kathy Hochul became the first woman to be elected as governor of New York, and Becca Balint became the first woman and openly gay person to represent Vermont in Congress.

          As recently as a week ago, Republican pollsters were predicting the GOP would pick up 35 seats in the House. That prediction is in line with “conventional wisdom” that the party in power loses seats in Congress. Exit polling by CNN shows that “inflation” was the most important issue to the largest bloc of voters—an issue that (wrongly) favors Republicans. And yet—at midnight Eastern time, the most likely outcome in the House is that the majority party will maintain control by a handful of seats (per MSNBC).

          Despite heavy criticism of Democratic messaging, something must account for the fact that Democrats are overperforming as measured against conventional wisdom. That “something” is Democratic messaging about democracy, reproductive liberty, and Joe Biden’s legislative achievements, including infrastructure, climate, social benefit programs, and fighting inflation. Whether those messages are sufficient to hold the House remains to be seen—but they appear to be enough to deny Kevin McCarthy the “mandate” he believed was his divine right.

          The Senate likewise seems too close to call, but Mitch McConnell’s early (and now withdrawn) predictions of a GOP majority may come down to a run-off in Georgia between Raphael Warnock and Herschel Walker.

          The most positive indicator for the health of our democracy is that 8-in-10 voters believe that elections are conducted in a manner that is fair and accurate. After two years of non-stop election denialism by the GOP, that is good news, indeed. Per CNN,  

Roughly 8 in 10 of voters in this year’s midterms said they were at least somewhat confident that elections in their state are being conducted fairly and accurately, according to the preliminary national results of the exit poll conducted for CNN and other news networks by Edison Research.

About half said they were very confident. Only about 2 in 10 said they were not very or not at all confident.

          Even where Democrats have suffered defeat, they have fought well and kept races closer than Trump’s margin of victory in 2020. More on that in future newsletters.

          As we await the full results, it is worth reflecting on predictions that most definitely did not come true. For a period of two weeks, major media outlets were breathlessly reporting that MAGA vigilantes acting as self-appointed “poll watchers” would show up en masse on Election Day—possibly armed. In October, Steve Bannon was telling anyone who would listen that Republicans would have a 45,000 member “Army of Patriots” intimidating voters at the polls. Except for one drop-box in Maricopa County, Arizona, the armed vigilantes failed to materialize. And if the 45,000 MAGA poll watchers showed up, they did not make their presence known. See USA Today, Voting rights experts report a smooth midterm election, some glitches. (“The relative calm on Tuesday was at odds with the run-up to the election . . . .”)

           Of course, even a single armed vigilante intimidating voters is unacceptable. But at the 230,000 polling locations in the U.S., it appears that there were few, if any, incidents of armed intimidation or aggressive behavior by MAGA poll watchers. For that, we should be thankful.

          When Bannon and others touted their “45,000” member army of poll watchers, I received panicked emails from readers who assumed that those poll watchers would cause havoc, intimidate voters, and suppress turnout. That didn’t happen, but Bannon’s propaganda had its intended effect: it instilled fear and doubt in Democrats. See Yahoo News / AFP, Right-wing election 'army' sparks fear for US midterms.

          We should always take threats of voter intimidation and suppression seriously. But we should also remember that Republicans are attempting to exaggerate their prowess in order to mess with our minds. Republicans don’t have superpowers—except when it comes to deceit, depravity, and shamelessness. Let’s keep that in mind for the next few weeks when, and if, Republicans make grandiose claims of what they plan to do with any victories they achieve in the midterms.

Wow! The GOP primary for president sure got ugly fast.

          Trump attacked Ron DeSantis with bare knuckles on Monday. Here is reporting from Rolling Stone that should get DeSantis’s attention:

Donald Trump is suggesting he will reveal damaging information about Florida Governor Ron DeSantis should he decide to challenge the former president for the Republican nomination in 2024.

“I will tell you things about him that won’t be very flattering,” Trump told The Wall Street Journal on his private jet after departing a rally in Dayton, Ohio, on Monday. “I know more about him than anybody other than perhaps his wife, who is really running his campaign.”

“I don’t know that he’s running,” Trump reportedly said on Monday. “I think if he runs he could hurt himself very badly.”

Concluding Thoughts.

          The prediction desks at the network and cable news shows will not have definitive answers on Tuesday evening—which is a hopeful sign for Democrats, no matter the final outcome. There is much to digest in this evening’s results, including seemingly inexplicable results in a handful of races. But it is both too early (in general) and too late (this evening) to engage in thoughtful discussion. More to come.

          But this much we know: Democrats have every right to be proud. They have battled gerrymandering in the redistricting process, a slew of voter suppression laws, inflation at a 40-year high, a sustained disinformation campaign against democracy, and low presidential favorability ratings. Despite all that, they made a strong showing that should give Republicans pause for the next two years.

          And we know this: Predictions that democracy might end in the 2022 midterms were wrong. Instead, voters made their voices heard, even if some of those voices seem irrational and anti-democratic. That is a problem we can address in future elections.

          And, finally, we know this: Every postcard, text, phone call, door knock, tweet, poster, flyer, yard sign, house party, and donation made a difference. For that, you should be immensely proud because you proved that we are not prisoners of history, but captains of our fate and that of our democracy. That is all we need to win over the long term.

          Talk to you tomorrow!