Democrats should be gaining confidence.
February 26, 2024
The positive trend for Democrats continued with Trump's poor showing in the South Carolina primary over the weekend. Before I review the primary results, let me emphasize four points:
No matter what happens, the general election will be a close race that will demand every effort we can muster.
We can’t count on Trump to defeat himself. Instead, we must beat him, fair and square—which means winning by about 10 million votes to account for the embedded inequities in the electoral college system.
We should be confident about Democratic chances in the fall—but not complacent. Confidence is infectious—but so is defeatism. Because we have reason to be confident, we should pass it on to others!
Don’t believe the media’s negative spin on every story!
For example, when Joe Biden won the South Carolina Democratic primary two weeks ago with 96.2% of the vote, the NYTimes called his victory an “uncertain measure of wider enthusiasm,” but when Trump won only 59.8% of the vote in the GOP South Carolina primary, the Times proclaimed Trump delivered “a crushing blow” to Nikki Haley!
As explained below, Republicans should be panicking after Trump's anemic showing in South Carolina and Democrats should be looking forward with hope and confidence.
So, let’s look at what happened. As always, perspective matters!
Trump loses 40% of vote in South Carolina primary
Trump is running his campaign as an incumbent president. He has accomplished a hostile takeover of the Republican Party apparatus. He has threatened to banish any Republican who supports or donates to his opponents. Under those circumstances, anything less than a Soviet-style win of 100% is a failure.
So, against that backdrop, Trump’s loss of 40% of the vote in the South Carolina primary is devastating. It is particularly bad because he lost 40% in a state that is more favorable to him than almost any state in the union—because of its strong presence of white, older, evangelical voters (60% of voters are white evangelical or born-again Christians). Losing 40% of the vote under those circumstances should send shockwaves through the Republican establishment.
Trump beat Nikki Haley among white, evangelical voters and voters with no college degree; Nikki Haley beat Trump among all other voters, including moderates, independents, first-time voters, and voters who believe Joe Biden won the 2020 election.
Here is how Axios described Trump's win:
If America were dominated by old, white, election-denying Christians who didn't go to college, former President Trump would win the general election in as big of a landslide as his sweep of the first four GOP contests.
It's not. That's why some top Republicans are worried about the general election in November, despite Trump's back-to-back-to-back-to-back wins in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina.
Or, as Josh Marshall of Talking Points Memo put it, Face It: This is a Weak Showing for Trump in South Carolina.
It is not merely that Trump lost 40% of the vote. It is also that 50% of those voters said they would not vote for Trump if he became the nominee—which translates into 25% of Republicans who will not vote for Trump!
Don’t believe me? Listen to a Fox News anchor explain the math and the disastrous implications for Trump based on the South Carolina primary vote: Biden-Harris HQ on Twitter: "Fox: About a quarter of Republicans are saying they will never vote for Donald Trump”.
And only 1-in-5 voters who supported Nikki Haley believe Trump is “physically and mentally fit to serve” as president.
The point of the above is not to predict that Joe Biden will win South Carolina in 2024. While it is possible for Biden to win South Carolina, he has an uphill battle to do so.
More importantly, the insights from South Carolina give us clues as to how Biden and Trump may perform in other states—including swing states. From that perspective, Trump's weak showing in South Carolina provides a signal in the noise that Trump has weaknesses under the surface that spell trouble for him in the general election. And he will only make it worse for himself as he continues to make the offensive, unhinged statements he made over the weekend.
But first, a word about the polls. Read on!
The polls again overstate Trump's support
Polls do not “predict” outcomes of races; rather, they predict ranges of outcomes at different levels of confidence. But on average and over time, polls should cluster around the actual outcomes. That is not happening with polling regarding Trump.
Instead, the polling averages have consistently overstated Trump's support—something the media and pollsters have ignored or excused. At some point, they should simply admit that their polling models are broken and overstate support for Trump.
Adam Carlson posted the following on Twitter, comparing Trump's average margin of victory predicted by 538.com versus the actual margin of victory by which Trump won the first three GOP primaries:
Iowa Caucus:
Final 538.com Average: Trump +37
Final Result: Trump +30
New Hampshire Primary:
Final 538.com Average: Trump +18
Final Result: Trump +11
South Carolina Primary:
Final 538.com Average: Trump +28
Final Result: Trump +20
Notice a pattern? The average of 538.com’s polls overstated Trump's support by at least 7 percentage points in three primaries. As Tom Bonier commented,
Another primary, another overrepresentation of Trump's strength in pre-election polls. But there's no reason to believe that might also be the case in the general election polls, right?
I am not a polling expert, but I know enough that when polls show a consistent bias, there is a flaw in the methodology that warrants skepticism. Here, that bias consistently overstates Trump's support.
So, as Nate Cohn and Nate Silver condescend toward Democrats who question polls that show a statistical tie or a Trump lead, the actual results tell a different story. My point is that we should ignore the polls. We should not delude ourselves, but neither should we trust polls that consistently overstate Trump's support. Just keep working hard and ignore the uncritical, breathless reporting about polls that have shown consistent bias in favor of Trump.
A comment about the Michigan primary on Tuesday
Some Democratic leaders in Michigan are urging Democrats to vote “uncommitted” in the upcoming primary to signal their disapproval of President Biden’s continued support for Israel in its war against Hamas. (In particular, they want Biden to call for an unconditional cease-fire and to suspend military support for Israel until that happens. See USA Today, Rep. Rashida Tlaib urges Michigan Democrats to vote 'uncommitted' in protest against Biden.
A common question I get from readers is how to talk to younger family members about supporting Joe Biden given strongly held views about the war in Gaza. One reader sent a link to post that included a post by Stephen Miller on Truth Social about Trump's Project 2025. The link shows Trump's plan to systematically exclude, interrogate, and deport Muslim and Arab Americans, students, and refugees.
Stephen Miller begins with this note: “Ladies and gentlemen, It doesn’t get any better than this,” and then describes “Trump's plan to keep jihadists and their sympathizers out of America.”
Stephen Miller then lists the elements of Project 2025 that are directed to “jihadists and sympathizers” as follows:
Reinstate and Expand Trump Travel Ban on Entry From Terror-Plagued Countries, Territories, and Places.
Reimplement a Full Suspension of State Dept Refugee Resettlement (this include Gazan refugees).
Implement Strong Ideological Screening for All Immigrants to the United States—Sympathy for Jihadists, Hamas, or Hamas Ideology Will Be Automatically Disqualifying.
Aggressively Deport Resident Aliens With Jihadist Sympathies
Revoke the Student Visas of Radical Anti-American and Anti-Semitic Foreigners at Colleges and Universities.
Proactively Send ICE to Pro-Jihadist Demonstrations to Enforce Our Immigration Laws and Remove the Violators From Our Country.
Continue and Expand Denaturalization of Criminals, Terrorists, and Immigration Cheats.
Invoke the Alien Enemies Act to Accelerate Domestic Deportations
We witnessed in 2017 how Trump's “Muslim ban” worked in practice—it effectively shut down travel from eleven Muslim-majority nations into the US. One of Joe Biden’s first acts was to reverse those travel restrictions. See NPR (3/6/2021), Biden Has Overturned Trump's 'Muslim Travel Ban.' Activists Say That's Not Enough.
As one Muslim leader (of Emerge Action) said at the time,
The Muslim communities are thrilled that [Biden] upheld his promise to our community, but we need to recognize that more needs to be done, specifically through congressional action, to ensure that no future administration can abuse the presidential authorities we saw Donald Trump abuse.
Bringing political pressure to bear on President Biden is understandable and fair. But within that political struggle over policy, we must ensure that Trump does not regain the Oval Office—otherwise, he will not only reinstitute his “Muslim ban,” but he will take dozens of other steps to discriminate against Muslim and Arab Americans, students, and refugees.
Visit to St. Louis, Missouri
My wife and I had a wonderful visit with more than a dozen readers of this newsletter who are residents of St. Louis and helping to elect Democrats and preserve democracy in Missouri. In talking to those readers, I learned about their involvement in several Missouri-specific initiatives that readers in Missouri and across the US should be interested in. I hope you will take a moment to review their recommendations—and learn about a Democratic challenger to the odious Josh Hawley!
Blue Missouri.
Last year in Missouri, 40% of all state legislative races were unopposed—meaning that the Republican candidate was elected without Democratic opposition or accountability to the voters! Blue Missouri’s mission is to end the “free pass” system by helping to ensure that Democrats oppose (and win!) as many seats in the Missouri legislature as possible. Simply having a Democrat on the ballot can help other Democrats running for other offices (city council, school board, and president) to win!
Here is Blue Missouri’s model:
Think of us as crowdfunders – for Missouri’s Democratic nominees for state legislature.
We make it easy for you to join thousands of other people and crowdsource democracy – supporting our nominees for a few dollars a month (which, these days, is less than you might spend on a fancy cup of coffee). And, as a monthly program, you just set it and forget it, knowing that you’re doing your part – no matter what else you have going on.
After the primary, Blue Missouri distributes 100% of the community funds directly to the Democratic state legislative nominees, who desperately need your help. And you rest easy, knowing that you are part of the solution. Job done.
If you care about democracy in Missouri, consider joining Blue Missouri!
Access Missouri
Access Missouri is a Missouri Statewide political action committee that provides education about and support to state and local candidates, and initiative that advocate for reproductive freedom and healthcare.
The founders are members of the Jewish community committed to supporting women and families having access to healthcare including abortion services. Missouri is collecting signatures for a Ballot Initiative protecting abortion rights. Access MO is helping with training and signature gathering. Help out with a donation to give the people of Missouri a voice in protecting reproductive rights.
Lucas Kunce for Missouri / US Senate
A reader who supports Lucas Kunce for US Senate provided this description of the Democratic opponent to Josh Hawley:
Lucas Kunce is running against Sen. Josh Hawley in Missouri, and he can win. Josh Hawley is very unpopular in the State. Lucas is driven by his wish to serve the community that has enabled him and his family to thrive. A native of Jefferson City Missouri, his family was forced into bankruptcy because of medical bills to treat his little sister for a heart condition. The community took care of the family.
Later he was the first from his high school to be accepted by Yale University. Again, the Community stepped in and through Pell Grants and other support, Lucas was able to attend Yale. After Yale he got a Law degree from University of Missouri Law School.
After Law School Lucas joined the Marine Corp to honor and serve the community that had done so much for him. He served 13 years. Two tours in Afghanistan and one at the Pentagon.
He decided to run for the Senate to take back power for working class families and protect women’s reproductive health. The latest polls show the race is close and within the margin of error. Lucas has strong labor support and rural support. He has vowed to not take Corporate PAC funds.
Check out Lucas’s website here: Lucas Kunce for U.S. Senate
Note, there are other candidates running for the Democratic nomination for the US Senate seat. A poll conducted in November 2023 showed Lucas Kunce effectively tied with Josh Hawley. See New Public Polling Has Lucas Kunce and Josh Hawley Within Margin Of Error | Lucas Kunce for U.S. Senate.
Concluding Thoughts.
There is more, but that is all I can manage on a Sunday night on the road. Tonight, I simply want to repeat a plea I heard from one reader at our meeting in St. Louis today—“Don’t forget about Missouri!” I have heard similar pleas from readers across America who live in other red states.
As the note on Blue Missouri (above) makes plain, we must help ensure that every race in red states has a qualified Democratic candidate with sufficient support to run a credible campaign. Many will lose, some will win, and others will help other candidates win. Republicans cracked the code decades ago—political control begins at the state level.
That is a lesson Democrats have absorbed and are implementing to their advantage in every new election cycle. Let’s help Democrats in red states flip state legislative seats to begin the long march back to a representative two-party system. Many of you are doing so already (e.g., Justice Janet Protasiewicz and Wisconsin), but other states need our help.
It’s a lot, I know. Do what you can and rely on your friends and fellow Democrats to do the rest. Tonight, I will “borrow” Joyce Vance’s tagline, “Remember, we are all in this together!”
Talk to you tomorrow—from Memphis!
Great photo! I live in NYC but I joined Blue Missouri a year or so ago. Their emails and their monthly Zooms are very inspiring! You can do $5 a month or even less and it helps! Nothing beats candidates on the doors and those funds allow candidates to do basic work and get out there. And every vote they get out will help Lucas Kunce at the top of the ticket. Lucas is a terrific candidate and would make an exceptional Senator. He had a great launch video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=McuIscYMRmw
Go Missouri! Robert, your road trip sounds amazing!
Just a brief comment to acknowledge that you are a very fine man with impeccable scruples and fortunate to have such a great teammate as your “editor.”