Great photo! I live in NYC but I joined Blue Missouri a year or so ago. Their emails and their monthly Zooms are very inspiring! You can do $5 a month or even less and it helps! Nothing beats candidates on the doors and those funds allow candidates to do basic work and get out there. And every vote they get out will help Lucas Kunce at the top of the ticket. Lucas is a terrific candidate and would make an exceptional Senator. He had a great launch video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=McuIscYMRmw
Go Missouri! Robert, your road trip sounds amazing!
Wow, I'll say it is the punch/counterpunch type of video that all Dem candidates should run in these MAGA states. Thanks for sharing as I am sharing far and wide.
As a former Missourian, I am so delighted to see all of this interest in helping Lucas Kunce and Blue Missouri. For regular updates on what is going on in Missouri, some here might be interested in Jess Piper's podcast, Dirt Road Democrat. She is really a voice for rural Democrats and happens to live in northwest Missouri, where she was a school teacher and ran for the state legislature. She is especially passionate about the attack on public education happening in red state houses, but she does lots of great interviews on a variety of topics. Those of you who read Jessica Craven's newsletter may have seen a link today to one of Jess' substack articles about gardening and politics. Jess is one of the founders of Blue Missouri, I think.
Let's all help take Harry Truman's seat back from Josh Hawley! Just imagine what Harry would have had to say about that faux-populist authoritarian.
Thank you again, Sarah. I just made a donation to Lucas Kunce's campaign. I'm proud to help in my small way to support such a great candidate for Senator from Missouri. I would not have known about him if not for you.
Just a brief comment to acknowledge that you are a very fine man with impeccable scruples and fortunate to have such a great teammate as your “editor.”
They've been "the main one" to each of them since second grade. Every time I am around them, I am so jealous of two people who got the life the rest of us wish for. It's a privilege to work with them.
Thanks for the advice on those folks that are thinking of not voting for Biden because of the Israel / Gaza situation. I was at the Rally and March for Ukraine in DC on Saturday. I wish there were more people there at the Lincoln Memorial. I'd say maybe a couple thousand? A very enthusiastic crowd with a variety of speakers including the Ukrainian Ambassador to the US, and my Representative in the House, Jamie Raskin. I was lamenting to a friend about people caring more about the Super Bowl than something as important as this, and trying to get the funding to help Ukraine. He said it was "Bread and Games" - keep the people fed and entertained. The Romans apparently did. And you're right, it has to be a blowout election. It's nerve wracking.
I love that you are travelling the country and sharing perspectives from all over. Through volunteering in many different phone banks over the years, for many different candidates all over the country, I feel like I am touring the country - from The San Fernando Valley to Virgina....from Alaska, to Nebraska!!! "from the redwood forests to the gulf stream waters, this land was made for you and me". I just burst into song!!!! Looking forward to hearing from you from Memphis!
Your efforts to distort the truth about Donald Trump's poor performance in South Carolina is shameful and your dismissive attitude about the failure of your polling accuracy is a disgrace. You defensively and irresponsibly describe your misleading forecasts by saying that Trump "slightly underperformed".
Your polling and 538's vs actual election outcomes like South Carolina's are consistently bias in favor of Trump by a whopping 7%. Your analytical work is a sham. What should your readers believe? The Times, has lost its ability to write the truth or your election work has become a Trump campaign asset?
Thanks for the effort but as we know Nate Cohn’s response is he is just reporting the numbers but like everything in life it’s not the number but the interpretation
I’ve worked with pollsters on campaigns. It's been a while, but I'm sure nothing has changed. They never admit their errors until they can explain them away with data. It is what it is.
After listening to Ezra Klein’s second podcast dedicated to urging a convention for the Dems and stating that Biden is up to being President but not up to the campaign, I am more convinced that The NY Times editorial pundits and editorial board are collectively attempting to pressure Biden Dems to revisit the best candidate, President Joseph R. Biden. Don’t get me wrong, we don’t need to think “conspiracy theory,” just recognize the Times folks have created their own bubble.
What boggles the mind is that their only issue is “ageism.” They make no attempt or spend very little time on highlighting Trumps flawed character, outrageous policies and assault of democracy, and his continuing criminal behavior and gaslighting.
Love the space devoted to Lucas Kunce's challenge to the extremely unpopular Josh Hawley. Much as Democrats should worry about the vulnerable incumbent Senators, Republicans should worry about their vulnerable Senators -- Ted Cruz of Texas, the most disliked member of the Senate, could be beaten by Congressman (and ex Baylor and NFL football player) Colin Allred. Rick Scott of Florida, made nationally famous by his plans to end Medicare and Social Security, could be beaten by former Member of Congress Debbie Marcarcel-Powell who came to the US with her mother and her sisters from Ecuador. Less likely, but worth a try is ousting Marsha Blackburn (once identified as the Senate's most conservative member) by State Rep Gloria Johnson, ally of the two young Black Reps expelled by the Tennessee House, special education teacher who has experienced both a school shooting and a possible life saving abortion. There is one more surprise candidate worth our attention. Nebraska labor leader Dan Osborn, an independent candidate in Nebraska where the Democrats will not run a Senate candidate, is targeting nondescript Senator Deb Fischer. She is so nondescript that he led her in a poll by 2 points and most people did not know who he was. Maybe they did not know who she was either.
Kunce sounds like a great candidate and I agree on fielding as many challengers as possible. But one mistake Democrats consistently make is to pour money into races against hated, high-profile Republicans. In terms of flipping/keeping national and state legislative majorities, its important to above all fund close, winnable races.
I agree with you. This is what happens in Mississippi. They occasionally recruit high-quality candidates who raise a ton of money against unpopular Republicans and still lose. Meanwhile, in the Congressional District, we are in, the Republican opponent has been unopposed in four of the last five elections.
Great newsletter today; we are winning and it's going to get better. After reading Today's Edition I sent $50 to Kunce and wrote the following to the NYTimes:
Dear Mssrs. Cohn,Halbfinger and Kahn-
You have failed to meet even the lowest standards of journalism in your biased reporting on Trump's "win" in South Carolina. Your support of gross polling inaccuracy is an insult to real, honest, unbiased reporting, which the NYTimes appears to have abandoned in favor of fealty to Trump. If you can call his miserable performance - losing 40% of the Republican vote in the most Republican state in the US - as "slightly underperform(ing)" with a straight face, then you have lost any semblance of truth in reporting. Your polling, along with 538's are clearly biased, showing a consistent 7% discrepancy in favor of Trump; can you not see that? We the readers can, and it erodes any confidence in what NYT publishes. You are no longer the credible source of news that the NYT once was. Honest journalists past & present look away in shame on your distortions.
Nice letter: facts, data, rational interpretation, and passion. Sounds like a recipe for a very tasty soup -- Democracy Chowder, good for what ails ya!
When Howard Dean was Chair of the DNC he ran a 50 state campaign of Democratic candidates. After Obama was elected he stopped that. Democrats should be active and campaigning in every state.
Absolutely right. It was my impression that Rahm Emmanuel who really discredited Howard Dean’s 50 state approach. Impression or not, it has proven to be foolish. I am glad to see more states and candidates stepping up. I even read somewhere that Speaker Johnson has never had a challenger. Yikes!!
John D. Cooper, you are correct. It was Emmanuel, among others. That effectively ended DNC funding to states in the South. The theory was that it was good money after bad. In practice, it ceded the South to the GOP for a generation at least. It was halfway there already, but that sealed the deal.
Robert, as we move forward, I continue to find the closeness of the presidential race very frustrating. What is wrong with American voters? President Biden, in only three years, has been one of the most productive Presidents in history. People from both parties are experiencing the results of his infrastructure efforts. They can readily see the results of his efforts to lower drug costs and overall healthcare. He has achieved huge employment gains and similar reductions in unemployment. Inflation is under control better than any other country. Biden and Harris are great advocates of women’s healthcare and efforts to ban assault weapons. Two vitally important issues to young voters.
Trump, on the other hand, was an incredibly unsuccessful President. The only people who experienced the effects of his tax reductions were very rich businessmen. He cost the lives of hundreds of thousands of people due to his totally incompetent response to the COVID pandemic. He is a convicted sexual assaulter, a cheater in the real estate market and the leader of an attempt to use sedition to destroy our democracy. He is a troll of Vladimir Putin and truly a threat to our country and our military with his unlawful handling of crucial classified information.
A close race just doesn’t make sense. Voters can’t be that ignorant. Are the Democrat advisers really doing enough for Biden? Where should the emphasis be placed? Biden’s unprecedented success or Trump’s unprecedented failure? It’s too easy to say “both”. There must be a better plan to defeat the MAGA Republicans. Are Biden’s advisors the best people available?
I share your sentiments. To listen to CNN and other msm the 2024 POTUS race is being won by Trump. We have talked about the bias of the media and the polls but I really do think something is amiss here. I also agree with your statement that"Voters can't be that ignorant."I forward Robert's piece to several others along with Heather Cox Richardson's Letters and some of the other wonderful wordsmiths who are trying to save democracy with their words.I am flummoxed by a lot of this.
I guess I’m jaded: I’m afraid that American voters *can* be that ignorant. Very many voters don’t have the time or inclination to become well-informed, so they act on impressions.
Combating voter ignorance is a prerequisite for Democratic candidates and their supporters.
As a young boy, I remember my parents discussing Barry Goldwater and saying, “He’s too radical.” Perhaps there are more than a few of those conversations going on in 2024.
As always: Get Out The Vote in 2024 - up and down the ballot for Dems!!!
Good news. On twitterX (whatever), @Muellershewrote lists the 10 positive judicial events that happened 'this week' including that Steve Bannon's criminal trial starts in May.
Odious Josh Hawley. Exactly. I, and I'd guess most of your readers, applaud all and any efforts to send the odious Josh Hawley back to the hustings. He has betrayed Missourians and the nation by being an unflagging Trumpista - itself a sure sign of being a bigoted bully.
I couldn’t sleep past 3 this morning. So I’ve already read Todays Edition, LFAA, and Joyce Vance. I feel like we’re the people in Ukraine as the Russian armies stacked up around them while Putin assured everyone they weren’t there to attack. The citizens of Ukraine kept going on with their everyday lives. I mostly feel confident things will work out for keeping Trump from office, but the craziness going on around us is really taking a toll in the “keep moving on with your regular goals and lives” status. Yes, “We’re in this together” is comforting … but not enough to be complacent. Thanks for all the information on Missouri. I already have a monthly small donation to Kunce, and I will do the same for the first group listed today. Thanks.
Bob, I hope you will tackle the basic polling question: Who answers a poll?
Most people I know will not answer a call from someone they do not know, or are afraid of some kind of repercussion if they were to answer a poll truthfully, or are wary of pollsters in general.
I’m encouraged to read about Blue Missouri. One of the first things I asked my wife twelve years ago when we married and I moved to Mississippi was why we had so many uncontested elections. She had no answers. I learned over time how difficult it is to attract candidates to a losing proposition and ask them to raise money from donors skeptical of a losing cause. Some try, but ultimately, they're beaten down by the system and give up. We’ve had a few solid candidates for Senate and, most recently, Governor, but the attempts have been futile. To the best of my knowledge, we have no organization comparable to Blue Missouri. I might see what I could do about that if I were twenty years younger. I've known some who have tried, but the party here is a mess mired in infighting and legal struggles.
Regarding the South Carolina primary, I was infuriated that the outcome was portrayed as domination by the media. When an opponent garners 40% in a two-person primary, the winning candidate has some issues. Yet unless one were to get deep in the political media weeds, you'd never know it. I’m not sure what good it does to shake our fists at the mainstream political press, but we can sure as hell ignore them and try to get others to listen.
Finally, I had an odd experience this weekend to address my last point. A minor political Facebook group I'm a member of but not active in launched a group chat entitled, “Who do we support in 2024?” I joined the chat only to find members advocating drafting Jon Stewart to run for President. I pointed out this folly but ran into more whacky ideas. Folks, we have work to do. I usually don't engage unserious people, but this was crazy. I’ll keep trying.
Hi, Dean. As to your third point, it sounds like the unserious people at the Facebook group are trolling us--attention seekers who propose outrageous actions to garner attention. Remember when Tiny Tim ran for president?
Robert, they aren’t trolling; they’re just confused. Five people were in the conversation, and I know four personally. I don’t know them well, but they all live in Georgia, and I tried to help them cope during the Trump administration by fighting off misinformation. Yesterday, I sent them to Simon Rosenberg’s Substack to try to do that again. My reason for bringing it up is to show that are people scared and flailing out there. These aren’t kids either; they’re in their fifties and sixties. Two are high school teachers. If these kinds of people are so lost, it makes me wonder how many others there might be.
NYT has an article about how tomorrow’s Michigan primary is a challenge for Gov. Whitmer. My comment was that the question is not whether Joe Biden can win in February, but whether he will win in November, and articles that don’t recognize that are merely taking up column inches. As for polls, which I despise, Trump’s predicted margins may be padded by a failure to measure factors like South Carolina Democrats voting in the Republican primary. (That was not the case in New Hampshire, however.).
Great photo! I live in NYC but I joined Blue Missouri a year or so ago. Their emails and their monthly Zooms are very inspiring! You can do $5 a month or even less and it helps! Nothing beats candidates on the doors and those funds allow candidates to do basic work and get out there. And every vote they get out will help Lucas Kunce at the top of the ticket. Lucas is a terrific candidate and would make an exceptional Senator. He had a great launch video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=McuIscYMRmw
Go Missouri! Robert, your road trip sounds amazing!
Thank you, Sarah, for the link to Lucas Kunce's exceptionally good launch video challenging Josh Hawley. Lucas really is an impressive candidate.
Blue Tennessee is a sister organization to Blue Missouri. Both are affiliated with Every State Blue (https://everystateblue.org/). Blue Tennessee will be launching on March 13. For more information: https://linktr.ee/BlueTennessee
Wow, I'll say it is the punch/counterpunch type of video that all Dem candidates should run in these MAGA states. Thanks for sharing as I am sharing far and wide.
As a former Missourian, I am so delighted to see all of this interest in helping Lucas Kunce and Blue Missouri. For regular updates on what is going on in Missouri, some here might be interested in Jess Piper's podcast, Dirt Road Democrat. She is really a voice for rural Democrats and happens to live in northwest Missouri, where she was a school teacher and ran for the state legislature. She is especially passionate about the attack on public education happening in red state houses, but she does lots of great interviews on a variety of topics. Those of you who read Jessica Craven's newsletter may have seen a link today to one of Jess' substack articles about gardening and politics. Jess is one of the founders of Blue Missouri, I think.
Let's all help take Harry Truman's seat back from Josh Hawley! Just imagine what Harry would have had to say about that faux-populist authoritarian.
Thanks, Sarah for posting the link. Lance vs Hawley—it is a no brainer in my book; you gotta vote for Lance Kunce.
Yes, Lance is a terrific candidate.
Wow, what a great launch ad! I like this guy already!
Thank you again, Sarah. I just made a donation to Lucas Kunce's campaign. I'm proud to help in my small way to support such a great candidate for Senator from Missouri. I would not have known about him if not for you.
Thanks for the link, Sarah. What a terrific and powerful ad!
Just a brief comment to acknowledge that you are a very fine man with impeccable scruples and fortunate to have such a great teammate as your “editor.”
They've been "the main one" to each of them since second grade. Every time I am around them, I am so jealous of two people who got the life the rest of us wish for. It's a privilege to work with them.
Giving circles are a great way forward with States Project http://statesproject.org/our-states/
Here is the Tending to Democracy Giving Circle. Thank you for your support!
https://www.grapevine.org/giving-circle/1XQhnyD/-
Thanks for the advice on those folks that are thinking of not voting for Biden because of the Israel / Gaza situation. I was at the Rally and March for Ukraine in DC on Saturday. I wish there were more people there at the Lincoln Memorial. I'd say maybe a couple thousand? A very enthusiastic crowd with a variety of speakers including the Ukrainian Ambassador to the US, and my Representative in the House, Jamie Raskin. I was lamenting to a friend about people caring more about the Super Bowl than something as important as this, and trying to get the funding to help Ukraine. He said it was "Bread and Games" - keep the people fed and entertained. The Romans apparently did. And you're right, it has to be a blowout election. It's nerve wracking.
I love that you are travelling the country and sharing perspectives from all over. Through volunteering in many different phone banks over the years, for many different candidates all over the country, I feel like I am touring the country - from The San Fernando Valley to Virgina....from Alaska, to Nebraska!!! "from the redwood forests to the gulf stream waters, this land was made for you and me". I just burst into song!!!! Looking forward to hearing from you from Memphis!
Everyone, please write directly to Nate Cohn and his editors at the New York Times about the latest pro-Trump distortion.
See my letter below:.….....................................
The addresses to email are;
Nate.cohn@nytimes.com
david.halbfinger@nytimes.com
joe.kahn@nytimes.com
,...........................................................................
Mr Cohn
Your efforts to distort the truth about Donald Trump's poor performance in South Carolina is shameful and your dismissive attitude about the failure of your polling accuracy is a disgrace. You defensively and irresponsibly describe your misleading forecasts by saying that Trump "slightly underperformed".
Your polling and 538's vs actual election outcomes like South Carolina's are consistently bias in favor of Trump by a whopping 7%. Your analytical work is a sham. What should your readers believe? The Times, has lost its ability to write the truth or your election work has become a Trump campaign asset?
Yours
Merrill Weingrod
401-480-8003
Thanks for the effort but as we know Nate Cohn’s response is he is just reporting the numbers but like everything in life it’s not the number but the interpretation
Thanks Stephen
Nate Cohn's numbers are simply wrong and beyond the margin of error for polling. That's a news story worth reporting
The number he should be reporting is the 7% variance from voting results!
I’ve worked with pollsters on campaigns. It's been a while, but I'm sure nothing has changed. They never admit their errors until they can explain them away with data. It is what it is.
Yes. It "Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics"
After listening to Ezra Klein’s second podcast dedicated to urging a convention for the Dems and stating that Biden is up to being President but not up to the campaign, I am more convinced that The NY Times editorial pundits and editorial board are collectively attempting to pressure Biden Dems to revisit the best candidate, President Joseph R. Biden. Don’t get me wrong, we don’t need to think “conspiracy theory,” just recognize the Times folks have created their own bubble.
What boggles the mind is that their only issue is “ageism.” They make no attempt or spend very little time on highlighting Trumps flawed character, outrageous policies and assault of democracy, and his continuing criminal behavior and gaslighting.
… or age!
Thanks for these emails. I will use them repeatedly.
Great. There is much to complain about in the Times reporting.
Love the space devoted to Lucas Kunce's challenge to the extremely unpopular Josh Hawley. Much as Democrats should worry about the vulnerable incumbent Senators, Republicans should worry about their vulnerable Senators -- Ted Cruz of Texas, the most disliked member of the Senate, could be beaten by Congressman (and ex Baylor and NFL football player) Colin Allred. Rick Scott of Florida, made nationally famous by his plans to end Medicare and Social Security, could be beaten by former Member of Congress Debbie Marcarcel-Powell who came to the US with her mother and her sisters from Ecuador. Less likely, but worth a try is ousting Marsha Blackburn (once identified as the Senate's most conservative member) by State Rep Gloria Johnson, ally of the two young Black Reps expelled by the Tennessee House, special education teacher who has experienced both a school shooting and a possible life saving abortion. There is one more surprise candidate worth our attention. Nebraska labor leader Dan Osborn, an independent candidate in Nebraska where the Democrats will not run a Senate candidate, is targeting nondescript Senator Deb Fischer. She is so nondescript that he led her in a poll by 2 points and most people did not know who he was. Maybe they did not know who she was either.
Kunce sounds like a great candidate and I agree on fielding as many challengers as possible. But one mistake Democrats consistently make is to pour money into races against hated, high-profile Republicans. In terms of flipping/keeping national and state legislative majorities, its important to above all fund close, winnable races.
I agree with you. This is what happens in Mississippi. They occasionally recruit high-quality candidates who raise a ton of money against unpopular Republicans and still lose. Meanwhile, in the Congressional District, we are in, the Republican opponent has been unopposed in four of the last five elections.
Let the Republicans not worry about their terrible representatives and senators and let’s beat them at the polls
Great newsletter today; we are winning and it's going to get better. After reading Today's Edition I sent $50 to Kunce and wrote the following to the NYTimes:
Dear Mssrs. Cohn,Halbfinger and Kahn-
You have failed to meet even the lowest standards of journalism in your biased reporting on Trump's "win" in South Carolina. Your support of gross polling inaccuracy is an insult to real, honest, unbiased reporting, which the NYTimes appears to have abandoned in favor of fealty to Trump. If you can call his miserable performance - losing 40% of the Republican vote in the most Republican state in the US - as "slightly underperform(ing)" with a straight face, then you have lost any semblance of truth in reporting. Your polling, along with 538's are clearly biased, showing a consistent 7% discrepancy in favor of Trump; can you not see that? We the readers can, and it erodes any confidence in what NYT publishes. You are no longer the credible source of news that the NYT once was. Honest journalists past & present look away in shame on your distortions.
Yours
Thomas F. Keefe
W. Cornwall, VT 05753
Nice letter: facts, data, rational interpretation, and passion. Sounds like a recipe for a very tasty soup -- Democracy Chowder, good for what ails ya!
👍
This is a good piece on changes in polling
https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/2023/04/19/how-public-polling-has-changed-in-the-21st-century/
Yes, thanks.
When Howard Dean was Chair of the DNC he ran a 50 state campaign of Democratic candidates. After Obama was elected he stopped that. Democrats should be active and campaigning in every state.
Absolutely right. It was my impression that Rahm Emmanuel who really discredited Howard Dean’s 50 state approach. Impression or not, it has proven to be foolish. I am glad to see more states and candidates stepping up. I even read somewhere that Speaker Johnson has never had a challenger. Yikes!!
John D. Cooper, you are correct. It was Emmanuel, among others. That effectively ended DNC funding to states in the South. The theory was that it was good money after bad. In practice, it ceded the South to the GOP for a generation at least. It was halfway there already, but that sealed the deal.
Robert, as we move forward, I continue to find the closeness of the presidential race very frustrating. What is wrong with American voters? President Biden, in only three years, has been one of the most productive Presidents in history. People from both parties are experiencing the results of his infrastructure efforts. They can readily see the results of his efforts to lower drug costs and overall healthcare. He has achieved huge employment gains and similar reductions in unemployment. Inflation is under control better than any other country. Biden and Harris are great advocates of women’s healthcare and efforts to ban assault weapons. Two vitally important issues to young voters.
Trump, on the other hand, was an incredibly unsuccessful President. The only people who experienced the effects of his tax reductions were very rich businessmen. He cost the lives of hundreds of thousands of people due to his totally incompetent response to the COVID pandemic. He is a convicted sexual assaulter, a cheater in the real estate market and the leader of an attempt to use sedition to destroy our democracy. He is a troll of Vladimir Putin and truly a threat to our country and our military with his unlawful handling of crucial classified information.
A close race just doesn’t make sense. Voters can’t be that ignorant. Are the Democrat advisers really doing enough for Biden? Where should the emphasis be placed? Biden’s unprecedented success or Trump’s unprecedented failure? It’s too easy to say “both”. There must be a better plan to defeat the MAGA Republicans. Are Biden’s advisors the best people available?
Who said it was a close race.? It really not because for many people they are keeping their opinions to themselves.
So true, wear the Blue and start a conversation !Team Biden/Harris .👕🛒🧢
I share your sentiments. To listen to CNN and other msm the 2024 POTUS race is being won by Trump. We have talked about the bias of the media and the polls but I really do think something is amiss here. I also agree with your statement that"Voters can't be that ignorant."I forward Robert's piece to several others along with Heather Cox Richardson's Letters and some of the other wonderful wordsmiths who are trying to save democracy with their words.I am flummoxed by a lot of this.
I guess I’m jaded: I’m afraid that American voters *can* be that ignorant. Very many voters don’t have the time or inclination to become well-informed, so they act on impressions.
Combating voter ignorance is a prerequisite for Democratic candidates and their supporters.
https://www.fieldteam6.org/
As a young boy, I remember my parents discussing Barry Goldwater and saying, “He’s too radical.” Perhaps there are more than a few of those conversations going on in 2024.
As always: Get Out The Vote in 2024 - up and down the ballot for Dems!!!
Thank you Robert. Removing Hawley is a top priority. Lucas Kunce will have our support!
Good news. On twitterX (whatever), @Muellershewrote lists the 10 positive judicial events that happened 'this week' including that Steve Bannon's criminal trial starts in May.
Odious Josh Hawley. Exactly. I, and I'd guess most of your readers, applaud all and any efforts to send the odious Josh Hawley back to the hustings. He has betrayed Missourians and the nation by being an unflagging Trumpista - itself a sure sign of being a bigoted bully.
I couldn’t sleep past 3 this morning. So I’ve already read Todays Edition, LFAA, and Joyce Vance. I feel like we’re the people in Ukraine as the Russian armies stacked up around them while Putin assured everyone they weren’t there to attack. The citizens of Ukraine kept going on with their everyday lives. I mostly feel confident things will work out for keeping Trump from office, but the craziness going on around us is really taking a toll in the “keep moving on with your regular goals and lives” status. Yes, “We’re in this together” is comforting … but not enough to be complacent. Thanks for all the information on Missouri. I already have a monthly small donation to Kunce, and I will do the same for the first group listed today. Thanks.
Bob, I hope you will tackle the basic polling question: Who answers a poll?
Most people I know will not answer a call from someone they do not know, or are afraid of some kind of repercussion if they were to answer a poll truthfully, or are wary of pollsters in general.
So, what demographic is eager to answer a poll?
I don't know the specifics of each poll, but I think it is no longer accurate to say they only talk to "people with landlines."
In today’s comments:
Dean Gavney
Dean’s Substack
3 hrs ago
This is a good piece on changes in polling
https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/2023/04/19/how-public-polling-has-changed-in-the-21st-century/
I’m encouraged to read about Blue Missouri. One of the first things I asked my wife twelve years ago when we married and I moved to Mississippi was why we had so many uncontested elections. She had no answers. I learned over time how difficult it is to attract candidates to a losing proposition and ask them to raise money from donors skeptical of a losing cause. Some try, but ultimately, they're beaten down by the system and give up. We’ve had a few solid candidates for Senate and, most recently, Governor, but the attempts have been futile. To the best of my knowledge, we have no organization comparable to Blue Missouri. I might see what I could do about that if I were twenty years younger. I've known some who have tried, but the party here is a mess mired in infighting and legal struggles.
Regarding the South Carolina primary, I was infuriated that the outcome was portrayed as domination by the media. When an opponent garners 40% in a two-person primary, the winning candidate has some issues. Yet unless one were to get deep in the political media weeds, you'd never know it. I’m not sure what good it does to shake our fists at the mainstream political press, but we can sure as hell ignore them and try to get others to listen.
Finally, I had an odd experience this weekend to address my last point. A minor political Facebook group I'm a member of but not active in launched a group chat entitled, “Who do we support in 2024?” I joined the chat only to find members advocating drafting Jon Stewart to run for President. I pointed out this folly but ran into more whacky ideas. Folks, we have work to do. I usually don't engage unserious people, but this was crazy. I’ll keep trying.
Hi, Dean. As to your third point, it sounds like the unserious people at the Facebook group are trolling us--attention seekers who propose outrageous actions to garner attention. Remember when Tiny Tim ran for president?
Robert, they aren’t trolling; they’re just confused. Five people were in the conversation, and I know four personally. I don’t know them well, but they all live in Georgia, and I tried to help them cope during the Trump administration by fighting off misinformation. Yesterday, I sent them to Simon Rosenberg’s Substack to try to do that again. My reason for bringing it up is to show that are people scared and flailing out there. These aren’t kids either; they’re in their fifties and sixties. Two are high school teachers. If these kinds of people are so lost, it makes me wonder how many others there might be.
NYT has an article about how tomorrow’s Michigan primary is a challenge for Gov. Whitmer. My comment was that the question is not whether Joe Biden can win in February, but whether he will win in November, and articles that don’t recognize that are merely taking up column inches. As for polls, which I despise, Trump’s predicted margins may be padded by a failure to measure factors like South Carolina Democrats voting in the Republican primary. (That was not the case in New Hampshire, however.).