It's appropriate for you to caution readers about the "Law of Small Numbers." But besides sample size an important factor in determining confidence in an inference from a sample is the consistency of the sample. The examples you cite about Democrats on a winning streak are compellingly consistent. It would be helpful to know if there are results that are inconsistent with those. Are there examples where Republicans won decisive victories where Democrats were thought to have a chance? Or Republicans who bettered Trump's numbers in specific state or local elections? If not, then even the small sample you provide gives pretty substantial cause for optimism.
Please refrain from further pleas to support California Democratic Senatorial hopefuls. We lesser Americans need to support critical elections in our own communities, not throw peanuts to candidates in CA.
And your new extra step to comment is really annoying….just saying.
In my gut, I feel McCarthy is playing with Biden and purposely put a carrot out to call him home from this important IndoPacific trip. Biden leaving unexpectedly and canceling the remaining meetings is not being spoken of lightly overseas. And it heightens how fragile we as a nation are...that Biden is summoned back to the M@ga negotiations. McCarthy is a spokesman puppet. The dumb M@ga masterminds know what havoc they are creating and could care less . I’m praying he stands firm.
I arrived in northern CA after an 11-hour flight yesterday and 9-hour time change from beautiful Amsterdam. Robert, I loved waking up to your note about my comment!! Thank you for making my day! It's true, there are armies of us all over the country writing postcards, hosting Zooms and events for candidates and Giving Circles, phone banking and all. Thank goodness!!! Every week, I update a BIG List of stuff going on and it's HUGE!! So many working on our side!
I had never been to Amsterdam before. It's so beautiful. The Anne Frank House is remarkable. The Dutch people are progressive, positive and kind. I think Holland/the Netherlands had gay marriage years before the USA and I believe no one there is allowed to own guns. Amazing. Every day I thought about the fact that Nazis came in and took over that beautiful city. These awful things can happen anywhere, still. I just read in one of the comments that the head of the Proud Boys went to an Ivy League School and is a lawyer. Shocking.
If Virginia becomes a Republican Trifecta in November, they will certainly do the book bans and abortion bans and so much more bad stuff. So we gotta win! Thank you to the wonderful readers who joined The Wednesday Group Giving Circle for Virginia!! I am such a believer in the GCs!!!! Thanks for posting Robert!!!!!
As to the Democrat victories mentioned in your newsletter today, and George Santos (or whatever his name really is), I offer a plausible theory to place both in context:
The more we learn about the lies, crimes and deceptions of George Santos, and Kevin McCarthy’s refusal to expel him, the more we realize he truly is a Republican, and they are truly him. Neither has any redeeming values. The public is slowly becoming aware of that fact.
The Republican Party has nothing to offer people at the polls. The party is one of fascism. It’s so-called values statements are merely hollow blurbs deflecting from it’s abysmal failures and lack of morality.
The party embraces criminals, sex offenders, thieves liars, Qannon adherents, white supremacy and the most vile forms of toxic Christianity.
Two of the most vocal Republican female mouth pieces in Congress are both getting divorced. One includes having an alleged background of believing in Jewish space lasers and having extramarital relations with a sex guru, the other has a criminal background and married an alleged sex offender.
After the insurrection, many GOP members sought pardons. A pardon is for the guilty, not the innocent.
The Great Leader ostensibly of the Republican Party at this time is associated with his business now convicted of multiple counts of business and tax fraud and has been charged with 34 felonies personally. His former financial controller has been convicted of crimes and done time in prison.
He admittedly had sex with a porn star while married, and then falsified records to cover it up. He described our nations’ fallen soldiers as suckers and losers after avoiding military service himself by claiming bone spurs we have yet to see proven.
His resume includes embracing white supremest military thugs to attack the United States Capitol, and conspiring with other Republicans to illegally overturn the election in several states and the country. He insists even today, after there can be no intelligent dispute, that the election in 2020 was stolen by Joe Biden.
His actions while President included the attempted blackmail of Ukraine, countless violations of the Hatch Act, grifting, defrauding his supporters with deceptive campaign money raising tactics, and probably selling pardons, if his former drunken lawyer Rudy Giuliani can be believed. Trump embraced Putin, a wanted war criminal now, and had secret meetings with him where no notes of the conversations were kept. Even after the slaughter of hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians has taken place by that war criminal, Trump has refused to condemn the attack on that peaceful sovereign country.
Considering the above, to think that Joe Biden’s policies are being embraced by the population as a whole though may be overly simplistic. A significant percentage of the people in the country may just be voting against hate, disregard of the rule of law, and alarming GOP rhetoric.
As the Republicans’ continue their hell bent effort to undermine public rights by their words and deeds, their culture wars against women’s health care, librarians, teachers, the LGBTQ community, the separation of church and state, immigrants, people of color, and outspoken critics may be taking a toll on their popularity. If anything, we should be alarmed with this set of facts that the GOP still has substantial support.
Either the messaging of the Democrats is not adequate, or the policies are not as popular as the proponents would have us believe. Objectively, if the facts that exist were known and believed, the GOP party should no longer exist. It should be like the Whigs; extinct and looked back upon with curiosity.
Good for you! Welcome back, Chaplain Terry. My college roommate from 61 years ago just had open heart surgery and was home within two weeks and is recovering slowly but surely.
correction! The group the fridayaction.org gang raised money for last night is the State Government Citizens Campaign .... if you are interested in learning about them tune in tomorrow at 9:00 a.m. eastern time to fridayaction.org They will be back!
Just a thought for consideration on the California Senate election. Regardless of my personal preference, I will be very pleased whichever candidate ends up serving as our next California Senator.
That being said, I am more concerned with the process in determining the winner than with who wins. Political campaigns involve massive resources and expenditures, and this Senate race will be no exception. I would ask the three candidates if they could avoid doing business as usual in this race, and agree on a different way of proceeding that in some way limits the amount of money spent by their respective campaigns. Given their values, I would not be surprised if the candidates themselves would agree that the colossal amount of money spent in determining the winner of this race would be better spent helping to elect Democrats in other state and national races. Personally, despite my preferance, I have decided not to contribute to any of the candidates in the primary or general election until one of them is running against a Republican.
With respect to the debt ceiling negotiations, thanks to Jessica Craven’s Chop Wood, Carry Water, yesterday, I called the White House comment line. I was delighted by the openness, patience, and kindness of the representative with whom I spoke. They informed me that my entire message was recorded and would be delivered to the president.
As I understand it, Biden’s trip abroad is abbreviated given the debt ceiling crisis, and I believe his return is scheduled for Sunday.
The comment line is open Tuesday – Thursday, 11am - 3pm EST. If you haven’t already, today seems an important day to voice your opinion.
Please call the White House comment line at: (202) 456-1111.
Perhaps there is something in the following that may be useful as a starting point:
“I’m calling to implore President Biden NOT to negotiate with House Republicans on their terms that in plain sight is extortion with respect to the debt ceiling.
Please tell the President that I, in the company of many, am calling on him NOT to give in to GOP dishonorable motivation and self-interest. Most especially since it is a betrayal to the American people. And naturally, the Republican threat can severely and detrimentally impact the global economy now and for the foreseeable future.
Constitutional scholars have spoken out and offered a clear analysis that the debt ceiling is unconstitutional. Please tell President Biden to contemplate this view deeply.
And that we appreciate his integrity and steadiness on this matter in service to us all, near and far.”
Off topic, but has anyone in the DC area responded to Robert's query as to interest in meeting tomorrow? I responded in the affirmative to the substack.com address and am thinking maybe I used the wrong one?
Robert, you are disappointed that Joe Biden is negotiating over the debt limit. I am too, but I'm hoping that this is part of a larger strategy to attempt to pull over a few Republicans to vote for a relatively clean debt ceiling.
Three observations: 1) The Democrats have themselves used the debt ceiling as negotiating leverage in the past (see https://www.newyorker.com/news/ryan-lizza/how-democrats-rolled-trump-on-the-debt-ceiling). 2) Biden has taken pains to message his negotiations on current budget items as being on a "parallel track"--that is, distinct from the debt ceiling debate. 3) Better to get a "bipartisan" deal on this, pulling off a handful of R votes, making pledges about the upcoming budget to do that. If Biden and the D's can do this it will weaken McCarthy even further--more evidence that he can't hold his caucus together.
The devil will be in the details. If Biden makes some relatively minor concessions (like pulling out unspent COVID relief money) it won't be a big deal. And one would think that they are making some quiet approaches to vulnerable, persuadable, moderate Republicans asking the "what's it going to take to get your vote?" question. We'll see.
shame on you Robert for not doing your homework. If you had looked at financial support for our Senate hopefuls in California you would have found the huge corporate support for this guy while Porter accepts no corporate money! And you neglect Lee who was the sole vote against a bad war, now there is courage.
I was pleased to see that gold medal winning figure skater, and Yale and UPenn educated Sarah Hughes is running for Congress in New York, opposing an incumbent Republican in a blue district. Now that sounds like a seat we can flip!!!
It's appropriate for you to caution readers about the "Law of Small Numbers." But besides sample size an important factor in determining confidence in an inference from a sample is the consistency of the sample. The examples you cite about Democrats on a winning streak are compellingly consistent. It would be helpful to know if there are results that are inconsistent with those. Are there examples where Republicans won decisive victories where Democrats were thought to have a chance? Or Republicans who bettered Trump's numbers in specific state or local elections? If not, then even the small sample you provide gives pretty substantial cause for optimism.
Hi Robert,
Please refrain from further pleas to support California Democratic Senatorial hopefuls. We lesser Americans need to support critical elections in our own communities, not throw peanuts to candidates in CA.
And your new extra step to comment is really annoying….just saying.
In my gut, I feel McCarthy is playing with Biden and purposely put a carrot out to call him home from this important IndoPacific trip. Biden leaving unexpectedly and canceling the remaining meetings is not being spoken of lightly overseas. And it heightens how fragile we as a nation are...that Biden is summoned back to the M@ga negotiations. McCarthy is a spokesman puppet. The dumb M@ga masterminds know what havoc they are creating and could care less . I’m praying he stands firm.
I arrived in northern CA after an 11-hour flight yesterday and 9-hour time change from beautiful Amsterdam. Robert, I loved waking up to your note about my comment!! Thank you for making my day! It's true, there are armies of us all over the country writing postcards, hosting Zooms and events for candidates and Giving Circles, phone banking and all. Thank goodness!!! Every week, I update a BIG List of stuff going on and it's HUGE!! So many working on our side!
I had never been to Amsterdam before. It's so beautiful. The Anne Frank House is remarkable. The Dutch people are progressive, positive and kind. I think Holland/the Netherlands had gay marriage years before the USA and I believe no one there is allowed to own guns. Amazing. Every day I thought about the fact that Nazis came in and took over that beautiful city. These awful things can happen anywhere, still. I just read in one of the comments that the head of the Proud Boys went to an Ivy League School and is a lawyer. Shocking.
I just don't get it. All I know is, YES, we need to give it our all for the next 18 months because we can't let the small minded book-banning, gun-toting haters take over. Just read this piece in New Yorker: https://www.newyorker.com/news/dispatch/the-fight-for-the-soul-of-a-school-board?utm_source=nl&utm_brand=tny&utm_mailing=TNY_Daily_051823&utm_campaign=aud-dev&utm_medium=email&utm_term=tny_daily_digest&bxid=5bea0eb83f92a404695c5026&cndid=43439169&hasha=920ff3ed67b5bd0b0132ef339ae96b93&hashb=838398186e444d7dd53e412a4d3b10624af51a70&hashc=175395416aa831545da310c20337a4f1e356ed6416efdf2262544c5abcfb4952&esrc=OIDC_SELECT_ACCOUNT_PAGE
If Virginia becomes a Republican Trifecta in November, they will certainly do the book bans and abortion bans and so much more bad stuff. So we gotta win! Thank you to the wonderful readers who joined The Wednesday Group Giving Circle for Virginia!! I am such a believer in the GCs!!!! Thanks for posting Robert!!!!!
As to the Democrat victories mentioned in your newsletter today, and George Santos (or whatever his name really is), I offer a plausible theory to place both in context:
The more we learn about the lies, crimes and deceptions of George Santos, and Kevin McCarthy’s refusal to expel him, the more we realize he truly is a Republican, and they are truly him. Neither has any redeeming values. The public is slowly becoming aware of that fact.
The Republican Party has nothing to offer people at the polls. The party is one of fascism. It’s so-called values statements are merely hollow blurbs deflecting from it’s abysmal failures and lack of morality.
The party embraces criminals, sex offenders, thieves liars, Qannon adherents, white supremacy and the most vile forms of toxic Christianity.
Two of the most vocal Republican female mouth pieces in Congress are both getting divorced. One includes having an alleged background of believing in Jewish space lasers and having extramarital relations with a sex guru, the other has a criminal background and married an alleged sex offender.
After the insurrection, many GOP members sought pardons. A pardon is for the guilty, not the innocent.
The Great Leader ostensibly of the Republican Party at this time is associated with his business now convicted of multiple counts of business and tax fraud and has been charged with 34 felonies personally. His former financial controller has been convicted of crimes and done time in prison.
He admittedly had sex with a porn star while married, and then falsified records to cover it up. He described our nations’ fallen soldiers as suckers and losers after avoiding military service himself by claiming bone spurs we have yet to see proven.
His resume includes embracing white supremest military thugs to attack the United States Capitol, and conspiring with other Republicans to illegally overturn the election in several states and the country. He insists even today, after there can be no intelligent dispute, that the election in 2020 was stolen by Joe Biden.
His actions while President included the attempted blackmail of Ukraine, countless violations of the Hatch Act, grifting, defrauding his supporters with deceptive campaign money raising tactics, and probably selling pardons, if his former drunken lawyer Rudy Giuliani can be believed. Trump embraced Putin, a wanted war criminal now, and had secret meetings with him where no notes of the conversations were kept. Even after the slaughter of hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians has taken place by that war criminal, Trump has refused to condemn the attack on that peaceful sovereign country.
Considering the above, to think that Joe Biden’s policies are being embraced by the population as a whole though may be overly simplistic. A significant percentage of the people in the country may just be voting against hate, disregard of the rule of law, and alarming GOP rhetoric.
As the Republicans’ continue their hell bent effort to undermine public rights by their words and deeds, their culture wars against women’s health care, librarians, teachers, the LGBTQ community, the separation of church and state, immigrants, people of color, and outspoken critics may be taking a toll on their popularity. If anything, we should be alarmed with this set of facts that the GOP still has substantial support.
Either the messaging of the Democrats is not adequate, or the policies are not as popular as the proponents would have us believe. Objectively, if the facts that exist were known and believed, the GOP party should no longer exist. It should be like the Whigs; extinct and looked back upon with curiosity.
Be my guest ..help get the message out.😁
Thank you to all who worked so hard in this election!! Yahoo you give us all so much hope for a country we love!!
Four weeks since my open heart surgery - so happy to be alive, back to sharing Today's Edition and back to this very important community! Blessings,
Good for you! Welcome back, Chaplain Terry. My college roommate from 61 years ago just had open heart surgery and was home within two weeks and is recovering slowly but surely.
correction! The group the fridayaction.org gang raised money for last night is the State Government Citizens Campaign .... if you are interested in learning about them tune in tomorrow at 9:00 a.m. eastern time to fridayaction.org They will be back!
I paused after reading about the House Ethics Committee’s effort to protect Santo and expel Adam Schiff.
I clicked on the link to Schiff’s Senate Campaign, made a donation, felt better and continued to read Today’s Edition.
Just a thought for consideration on the California Senate election. Regardless of my personal preference, I will be very pleased whichever candidate ends up serving as our next California Senator.
That being said, I am more concerned with the process in determining the winner than with who wins. Political campaigns involve massive resources and expenditures, and this Senate race will be no exception. I would ask the three candidates if they could avoid doing business as usual in this race, and agree on a different way of proceeding that in some way limits the amount of money spent by their respective campaigns. Given their values, I would not be surprised if the candidates themselves would agree that the colossal amount of money spent in determining the winner of this race would be better spent helping to elect Democrats in other state and national races. Personally, despite my preferance, I have decided not to contribute to any of the candidates in the primary or general election until one of them is running against a Republican.
With respect to the debt ceiling negotiations, thanks to Jessica Craven’s Chop Wood, Carry Water, yesterday, I called the White House comment line. I was delighted by the openness, patience, and kindness of the representative with whom I spoke. They informed me that my entire message was recorded and would be delivered to the president.
As I understand it, Biden’s trip abroad is abbreviated given the debt ceiling crisis, and I believe his return is scheduled for Sunday.
The comment line is open Tuesday – Thursday, 11am - 3pm EST. If you haven’t already, today seems an important day to voice your opinion.
Please call the White House comment line at: (202) 456-1111.
Perhaps there is something in the following that may be useful as a starting point:
“I’m calling to implore President Biden NOT to negotiate with House Republicans on their terms that in plain sight is extortion with respect to the debt ceiling.
Please tell the President that I, in the company of many, am calling on him NOT to give in to GOP dishonorable motivation and self-interest. Most especially since it is a betrayal to the American people. And naturally, the Republican threat can severely and detrimentally impact the global economy now and for the foreseeable future.
Constitutional scholars have spoken out and offered a clear analysis that the debt ceiling is unconstitutional. Please tell President Biden to contemplate this view deeply.
And that we appreciate his integrity and steadiness on this matter in service to us all, near and far.”
Off topic, but has anyone in the DC area responded to Robert's query as to interest in meeting tomorrow? I responded in the affirmative to the substack.com address and am thinking maybe I used the wrong one?
Robert, you are disappointed that Joe Biden is negotiating over the debt limit. I am too, but I'm hoping that this is part of a larger strategy to attempt to pull over a few Republicans to vote for a relatively clean debt ceiling.
Three observations: 1) The Democrats have themselves used the debt ceiling as negotiating leverage in the past (see https://www.newyorker.com/news/ryan-lizza/how-democrats-rolled-trump-on-the-debt-ceiling). 2) Biden has taken pains to message his negotiations on current budget items as being on a "parallel track"--that is, distinct from the debt ceiling debate. 3) Better to get a "bipartisan" deal on this, pulling off a handful of R votes, making pledges about the upcoming budget to do that. If Biden and the D's can do this it will weaken McCarthy even further--more evidence that he can't hold his caucus together.
The devil will be in the details. If Biden makes some relatively minor concessions (like pulling out unspent COVID relief money) it won't be a big deal. And one would think that they are making some quiet approaches to vulnerable, persuadable, moderate Republicans asking the "what's it going to take to get your vote?" question. We'll see.
shame on you Robert for not doing your homework. If you had looked at financial support for our Senate hopefuls in California you would have found the huge corporate support for this guy while Porter accepts no corporate money! And you neglect Lee who was the sole vote against a bad war, now there is courage.
I was pleased to see that gold medal winning figure skater, and Yale and UPenn educated Sarah Hughes is running for Congress in New York, opposing an incumbent Republican in a blue district. Now that sounds like a seat we can flip!!!