Democratic Action Items!

November 11, 2022

          The midterms are not over! We need to cure ballots in Arizona and Nevada, and help Raphael Warnock defeat Herschel Walker in Georgia.

          Here is how you can help:

Cure ballots in Arizona and Nevada.

          What does it mean to “cure” ballots? Some ballots cast by voters (usually mail ballots) have a technical but “fixable” deficiency. Lists of curable ballots are available to the public. Voting rights organizations organize calling campaigns to voters with a ballot problem and to help them fix it. All you need is a computer, a phone, and training. Curing ballots in Arizona and Nevada may determine control of the US Senate and the Governor of Nevada! Sign up here:

Arizona training and calling – deadline is November 16: Cure Phonebank in Arizona! (mobilize.us)

Nevada training and calling – deadline is November 14: Cure Calls for Nevada (mobilize.us)

Help re-elect Raphael Warnock to US Senate for Georgia.

          There is a lot going on in the Georgia run-off so I will identify multiple ways in which you can help. There may be more, so please don’t limit yourself to this list. And if I leave your organization off this list, please post a note in the Comments section of today’s newsletter. I will “pin” those notes to the top of the Comments section.

          The 30-day run-off in Georgia is designed to be hectic—a cruel “gift” from the GOP legislators in Georgia, who believed that Raphael Warnock benefitted from the 60-day runoff period in 2020. Incredibly, the Georgia Secretary of State homepage has no information about an election to be held on December 6, 2022! Fortunately, AP News has outlined the logistics of the runoff: How Georgia's Senate runoff between Walker and Warnock works.  Per the AP:

Voters can request absentee ballots now, although they won’t be mailed until Nov. 18. Mail-in ballots have to be received by the time the polls close Dec. 6.

According to state officials, early voting must start by Nov. 28, although some counties may start sooner.

Early voting ends Dec. 2.

          If you live in Georgia and are registered to vote (or are eligible to register), I urge you to visit the New Georgia Project webpage titled, “Make a Plan to Vote.”

“Where should I give money to help Raphael Warnock?”

          Dozens of readers sent the above question to me today. Several complained that they are being overwhelmed with requests for money from various organizations that all claim to be helping in the effort to re-elect Raphael Warnock. After reflection and consultation with long-time readers of this newsletter, I have the following thoughts for your consideration:

(a)  If you have an existing relationship with an organization that has a demonstrated track record of effectiveness and a connection to Georgia, continue to support that organization rather than seeking out a new organization.

(b)  It the above does not apply to you, giving directly to the Warnock campaign is a safe choice: Reverend Warnock for U.S. Senate. The campaign will know its needs best.

(c)  But . . . there are established “get out the vote” organizations focused on Georgia that are worthy of support. Getting out the vote will determine the victor, so having a bias toward GOTV organizations is a smart choice.

Hope that is helpful! See specific organizations noted below.

          With that as background, read on regarding organizations that are actively soliciting volunteers and donations to Raphael Warnock.

Engagement Opportunities.

          As usual, Jessica Craven at Chop Wood, Carry Water is doing a superb job of identifying opportunities. She has created an online document that collects opportunities for “all things Georgia.” The document is here.

          Listed below are the organizations and activities recommended by readers and Jessica Craven:

Postcarding.

          Postcards to Voters. From Sarah O’Neill: Tony the Democrat launched postcards for Senator Warnock’s runoff! So, tell everyone, they can start writing postcards! If they are new to Postcards to Voters, they can text “Join” to 484-275-2229 or email join@TonyTheDemocrat.org to get started. PTV volunteers handwrote over 2 million postcards for the Ossoff & Warnock 2021 runoff!

          Reclaim Our Vote / Center for Common Ground has 879,000 addresses of consistent Black voters in Georgia available for receipt of postcards. Your need to use their cards, so build in time to order them. The postcards must be mailed by November 23. For background information and to sign up, go to Postcards (centerforcommonground.org).

          Vote Forward has launched a letter writing campaign into Georgia! Read instructions and guidelines here, and then sign up here!

          Grandmothers for a Brighter Future is looking for volunteers to hand address postcards to women over the age of 65 who are registered as Democrats or Independents in Georgia. Volunteers are asked to include a brief message of their own.

Knocking on doors in Georgia.

          Georgia Democrats is sponsoring a door-knocking campaign: Knocking on doors is the most impactful way to talk to voters about this crucial election. The number of doors we knock on will be the difference in the runoff! Must be able to travel to Georgia! Sign up here!

Texting and Phonebanking.

          Georgia Working Families Party has text banking for the runoffs happening almost every day! Sign up here.

          SURJ (Showing Up for Racial Justice) has several texting and phonebanking sessions already scheduled to help win the runoff. Sign up for one or more here

Supporting Get Out the Vote Organizations.

          Fair Fight and New Georgia Project are established, on-the-ground “get out the vote” organizations that have websites where you can volunteer. Although neither yet has posted specific opportunities for the run-off, I expect both will do so soon. Check out both websites to volunteer or donate.

Fundraising for the Georgia run-off.

          Movement Voter Fund is raising money for the GA runoffs—specifically for their amazing partner group, Georgia Alliance for Progress, who will quickly deploy funds to the field. Donate at Movement.vote/GA.

          Focus For Democracy is sprinting ahead in fundraising and organizing for the Georgia run-off. Here is a note I received from a representative of Focus for Democracy inviting readers of this newsletter to a special briefing about helping to re-elect Raphael Warnock:

I write to ask you to encourage your ‘Today’s Edition’ readers to register for Focus for Democracy’s upcoming briefing about the Georgia Senate runoff.

Importantly, Focus for Democracy’s effort will support highly effective, experienced programs already on the ground in Georgia. They are scaffolding onto, not creating new program. 

Please invite your readers to a special briefing on Sunday, November 13 at 4:00 PM Pacific / 7:00 PM Eastern on Zoom. Register at this link: Focus for Democracy / Georgia runoff.

If your organization / activity isn’t listed above.

          If your organization isn’t listed above, don’t send me an email asking why it is not included above. Instead, post your organization’s solicitation in the Comments section to this newsletter—which is open to all readers today. A few tips to increase response rates: Include a clickable link to your organization in the first sentence, then get to the point: What do you need and how can readers help? The people who will be reading your post don’t need to be persuaded to help; they are looking for the right opportunity. So, keep it simple and don’t be shy in making the ask!

More on the midterms.

          It is still early to draw firm conclusions from the midterms, but exit polling is beginning to provide helpful clues. A concern that has attracted much attention in the media is the Democratic “loss” of the Hispanic / Latino vote. Christian Paz has taken a deep dive into voting Hispanic / Latino voting patterns and has concluded that “while Republicans did make gains with Latino voters in some places, it doesn’t appear that the Great Realignment materialized.” See Vox, What happened to the Republican Hispanic wave?

          Paz notes that Hispanic / Latino support for Democrats has varied over the last two decades and that the current level of support is roughly the same as in the 1990s. And depending on where in the nation you look, Hispanic / Latino vote in 2022 matched support for Biden in 2020:

In Pennsylvania, Democrats in statewide races seem to have won Latinos by the same margin as Biden did in 2020, about 70-30, even as Latinos made up a bigger share of the electorate than in that election. As more votes are counted in Arizona and Nevada, a similar picture could emerge.

          As Paz notes, Florida is the glaring exception to the pattern—but the Hispanic / Latino vote in Florida is fundamentally an “anti-Castro” vote. Per Paz, “Don’t take Florida as a national bellwether.”

          As always, we should refrain from telling ourselves “Just so” stories to make ourselves feel better. Paz paints a nuanced and complex situation that suggests Democrats have work to do. I recommend his article to you—so you will know better than to believe the media’s lazy narrative that “Democrats are losing the Hispanic / Latino vote.” Maybe, maybe not.

Democratic progress at the state level.

          The States Project has produced a report on the gains at the state level. See 2022 Election Results / The States Project. The report provides a summary of the current state of Democratic successes at the state level. It is an inspiring read!

          A reader sent a note to remind us about a second organization that is focusing on state-level elections. Per the reader,

Sister District also focuses solely on state legislative races and has done so since 2016. They have incredible research, a team that not only fundraises and phones for candidates they identify but also mentors them on how to run a campaign since many of them are first-time candidates. Check out Gaby Goldstein’s latest 2022 Immediate Sister District Post-Election Results | Sister District Project.

Goldstein’s report provides a comprehensive analysis for those of you looking for data, trends, and graphics!

          Finally, the Washington Post takes a long-term view of Democratic performance in 2022. See WaPo, How bad the 2022 election was for the GOP, historically speaking. Democratic performance in state legislatures was historic:

[T]he GOP is also likely to lose ground in terms of the raw number of state legislative seats — something that has happened only twice in the past 100 years.

          Whatever happens in Congress, the 2022 midterms were a great success for Democrats at the state level. Let’s not lose sight of that fact!

The failure of polls—and poll aggregators.

          There is much to learn about what happened with polls in 2022. But one thing is clear: Republicans weaponized them and the media fell for the GOP’s cynical manipulation hook, line, and sinker. But so did the most respected poll aggregator. See Ben Mathis-Lilley in Slate, Meet the Trafalgar Group, the pollster that convinced Republicans that there would be a red wave.

          The Slate article enumerates the many ways in which the Trafalgar Group exaggerated Republican prospects in 2022 and how those predictions were repeated by the media without reservation or analysis. The problem is that the Trafalgar Group had a sketchy reputation based on its prior performance. It was described by the NYTimes in 2020 as “far too shadowy . . . to be taken seriously” by other pollsters. Despite that fact,

Tralfagar retained much of its influence, including among mainstream reporters. This was partly because Nate Silver’s site FiveThirtyEight continued to give the group an A-minus rating for its overall accuracy despite some concerns about its transparency.

          In other words, the GOP’s plan to “skew the polls” affected not only the media, but poll aggregators who treated Trafalgar as a legitimate, non-partisan organization. There is a lesson in that for all of us. Let’s not forget that lesson in future elections.

GOP turns on Trump—but Trump is the GOP.

          Many in the GOP and the right-wing media are blaming Trump for the Republican failures in the midterms. Rupert Murdoch’s NYPost published an unflattering caricature of Trump as “Trumpty Dumpty,” accompanied by an article that blamed Trump for the midterm failures. See The Guardian, Has ‘Trumpty Dumpty’ taken a great fall from Rupert Murdoch’s grace?

          While the GOP may be trying to turn the page on Donald Trump, 41% of Republicans are more loyal to Trump than they are to the GOP. That is the problem with creating a party based on a cult of personality. The GOP may want to break up with Trump, but Trump isn’t going to let that happen. After all, they stuck with him through two impeachments and an attempted coup.

In a week, we should expect to see Kevin McCarthy back at Mar-a-Lago kissing the ring of the still reigning king of the GOP. Let’s hope that the break-up is protracted and ugly—a deserving price for having abandoned all principles and morals to promote a malignant narcissist whose only loyalty was to himself.

Concluding Thoughts.

          Whew! What a week! We made it through the most difficult part. We have challenges and opportunities ahead. But we must burn the lessons of the 2022 midterms into our minds: Don’t give up; stay positive; don’t believe the negative narrative in the media; no effort is wasted; and it’s always about the long term. Three days after the election that was supposed to be the “end of democracy,” Democrats have every reason to be hopeful, but no reason to be complacent.

          I will be in touch over the weekend. The Comment’s section is open to everyone!