Coming full circle.

May 6, 2022

[Audio version here]

          President Biden gave a speech on budget deficits and the national debt on Wednesday—factors that Republicans claim are driving inflation. Biden’s speech received virtually no coverage in the media. The video is here, YouTube, President Biden Delivers Remarks on Economic Growth, Jobs, and Deficit Reduction. Before discussing the substance of the speech, let’s engage in a thought experiment: Ask yourself, “By what amount has the deficit increased during Biden’s tenure—rounded to the nearest $1 trillion?” [Insert pause here for reflection.]

          That is a trick question. During Biden’s first year in office, the deficit decreased by $350 billion and is on track to decrease by an additional $1.5 trillion by the end of this fiscal year. The latter will be the biggest decline in a single year in American history! And for the first time since 2016, the Treasury Department is planning to pay down debt for the current quarter. The text of the speech is here: Remarks by President Biden On Economic Growth, Jobs, and Deficit Reduction.

          In contrast, the deficit increased each year during Trump’s administration, both before and after the pandemic. During Trump’s tenure, the main driver for deficits was the massive tax cut for corporations and millionaires in 2017. Trump cut taxes without identifying corresponding savings and was thus forced to increase deficit spending to make up the difference. Republicans didn’t care about deficit spending under Trump, and they sure as heck don’t want to talk about decreasing deficits under Biden.

          After Biden finished his speech, he said he had time for a few questions. He was immediately asked about sanctions against Russia and the draft of the Supreme Court’s opinion in Dobbs. Biden responded to the questions by saying,

          No one asked about deficits, huh? . . . You want to make sure this doesn’t get covered. Okay. Here we go.

          And therein lies the central problem for Democrats. The popular perception is that increasing deficits have led to inflation. That perception is objectively, demonstrably wrong. If Trump had reduced deficits, he would have spoken of nothing else. I fear that Biden’s understated speech—delivered before a meeting with Olympic athletes—will be the last we will hear from Biden on his singular accomplishment. Better messaging has to come from the top. If it does, loyal supporters will follow. Biden needs to discuss his accomplishments at every opportunity—and from locations other than the East Room of the White House. There is a great big country outside of D.C. desperate for good news.

Belarus’ President admits problems with Putin’s “war” on Ukraine.

          In a sign of Putin’s political debacle in Ukraine, Belarus’ President Alexander Lukashenko said he didn’t expect the Russian “war” on Ukraine to “drag on this way.” See APNews, Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko admits Russia’s war ‘drags on’. Although Lukashenko’s statement seems innocuous, calling the invasion of Ukraine a “war” would result in a 15-year prison term if he were a Russian citizen. The fact that Belarus’ president repeatedly used the term “war” to describe Putin’s invasion of Ukraine demonstrates that Putin is losing the disinformation war.  

          Speaking of the disinformation war, Putin may declare victory on May 9, 2022—no matter how badly his invasion of Ukraine is going. Alternatively, he may officially declare war on Ukraine on that date. (Another thought experiment: Will Putin subject himself to a 15-year prison term for using the word “war” to describe the invasion?) Why May 9th? Because that date commemorates the victory of Russia over Nazi Germany. Putin wants to seize on that symbolism to promote the lie that his war against Ukraine is intended to “de-Nazify” the country. See Business Insider, Putin Likely to Use May 9 to Reveal Plans for Ukraine War: Experts

          If Putin officially declares war on Ukraine, it will signify Russia’s troubles. An official declaration will allow Putin to mobilize millions of reservists and conscripts for the war against Ukraine. That Russia would invoke a national mobilization to fight a vastly smaller and out-gunned neighbor is another sign of Russia’s difficulties. That frustration is leading to ongoing attacks on civilians and non-military targets in Ukraine—all of which are war crimes. Let’s not lose sight of that important fact.

US surpasses 1 million Covid deaths.

          Per an analysis by NBC News, the US has passed 1 million Covid deaths. NBC News, Covid’s toll in U.S. reaches 1 million deaths, a once unfathomable number. Although the number is an arbitrary milestone, it serves as a shocking reminder of the toll that SARS‑CoV‑2 has taken on our nation. Every one of those deaths touched the lives of dozens or hundreds of other Americans. But for the extraordinary actions to limit the spread of the virus and to vaccinate hundreds of millions of Americans, the death toll could have been much higher. Add President Biden’s aggressive vaccination campaign to a list of the ways in which he has helped the American people during his sixteen months in office.

More analysis on Alito’s draft opinion in Dobbs.

          I try (but fail) to keep this newsletter reasonably short (to encourage people to read to the end). Although I have discussed the draft opinion in Dobbs at length this week, there is much more to be said. Tonight, I will refer readers to other commentators who have added their voices to the discussion.

          Philip Rottner writes in his blog about an aspect of the opinion I have not discussed—Alito’s claim that we need not fear erosion of other rights because “abortion is different” than same-sex marriage, contraception, adoption, “inter-racial” marriage, and LBGTQ rights. See Philip Rottner, Alito’s Draft Opinion Threatens Rights Beyond Abortion. Per Rottner, Alito claims that, unlike other privacy-based rights, abortion requires a “balance between the interests of a woman who wants an abortion and the interests of what they termed ‘potential life.’” Rotner continues,

But in the very next breath, Alito casts aside the need for a balancing of the respective interests at stake in Dobbs. Balancing the respective interests of the pregnant woman and the unborn child, Alito tells us, is “a matter for the various states to decide in the political process, not the Supreme Court.”

In other words, after telling us that “ordered liberty” requires an analysis balancing competing interests, Alito simply refuses to perform one.   

          Lydia O’Connor takes on Alito’s dismissive attitude toward the burdens of pregnancy on women. See HuffPo, The Supreme Court’s Leaked Draft Is Full Of Mystifying Arguments Against Abortion Rights. O’Connor writes that Alito “treats pregnancy and motherhood like no big deal.” Per O’Connor, Alito breezily minimizes the burdens of pregnancy by arguing that

[A]ttitudes about the pregnancy of unmarried women have changed drastically; that federal and state laws ban discrimination on the basis of pregnancy, that leave for pregnancy and childbirth are now guaranteed by law in many cases, that the costs of medical care associated with pregnancy are covered by insurance or government assistance.

          O’Connor responds,

          It would be an appropriate spot to note that the U.S. is one of only six countries in the world without national paid family leave. The rest of the world averages 29 paid weeks. It’s also [disingenuous] to say that pregnancy-related leave from work is promised “in many cases,” as only 10 states and Washington, D.C., have made their own laws mandating paid family leave.

          Alito’s inaccurate description of the burdens of pregnancy is matched by his distorted review of the historical record. Aaron Tang deconstructs Alito’s flawed review of history in The Los Angeles Times, Op-Ed: The Supreme Court flunks abortion history. After reviewing Alito’s claim that there is no “deeply rooted tradition” of allowing abortion in America, Tang writes as follows:

Our nation’s history actually does support a right to abortion for much of early pregnancy. The draft acknowledges that at the time of the founding, people made a “distinction between pre- and post-quickening abortions,” and abortions were criminally punishable only if performed after quickening — the first notable movement of the fetus, which often occurs around 15-16 weeks in pregnancy.

          Two other quick notes about the potential consequences of the Alito’s draft opinion.

          First, Republicans in Louisiana have introduced a bill classifying abortion as homicide—starting from “the moment of fertilization” of the egg. See Forbes, Louisiana Lawmakers Advance Bill Making Abortion Homicide—Even If Roe V. Wade Isn’t Overturned. And, confirming that Republicans in Louisiana have abandoned democracy and yearn for a Soviet-style dictatorship, the bill provides that any state judge who tries to block the bill shall be impeached or removed from office. The bill is extreme in its reach. Many methods of birth control act upon a fertilized egg. There are hundreds of thousands of women of childbearing age in Louisiana, many of whom use birth control. Under the pending bill, most women in Louisiana who use birth control would be deemed “murderers.”

          Second, now that conservatives are confident they have overturned Roe and Casey, they are turning their sights on other civil rights. Conservatives (led by Justice Thomas) have criticized the reasoning in Brown v. Board of Education. Within days of the leaked Dobbs draft opinion, a former editor of The National Review celebrated the forthcoming opinion and tweeted, “Next stop Brown vs. Board!”

Concluding Thoughts.

          I have been overwhelmed by email from readers this week. That is understandable given the strong emotions provoked by the draft opinion in Dobbs. If I didn’t reply to your email, please don’t take it personally! (Reminder to paying subscribers: You can leave comments for me (and all other readers) in the Comments section. Click on the “Comment” icon next to the heart-shaped “Like” icon.) I am still reviewing emails for engagement opportunities for readers and will report back early next week. But I want to highlight two opportunities tonight.

          First, Civic Influencers is conducting a survey directed toward young voters to determine which issues are important to them and what Civic Influencers can do to motivate them to vote. The survey asks young citizens to rank issues that motivate them to vote (including the question of abortion rights). The survey started before the release of Alito’s draft opinion; obtaining responses from young voters after the release of the draft will help shape communications strategies. The survey is here: Civic Influencers Survey. Pass it on to a young person in your life to help Civic Influencers reach youth voters.

          Second, some organizations are planning marches on May 14, 2022, to support reproductive rights. My wife and I will be attending the march in downtown L.A. on May14th. The details are here: May 14th rally—Women’s March Foundation. (Please note, Women’s March Foundation is not affiliated with the controversy-plagued Women’s March Inc.) I searched for other marches across the nation on May 14th and could not find other events. If anyone knows of such an opportunity, please email me or post in the Comments section.

          I hope that there will be a strong turnout in Los Angeles on May14th. It will be a bittersweet event that will bring us full circle. My wife and I attended the Women’s March in Los Angeles on January 21, 2017— the day after Trump’s inauguration. It was a moving, empowering, life-changing event. Indeed, I began writing this newsletter within days of attending the first Women’s March.

          We have come a long way since that day in 2017 (when Republicans controlled the presidency and both chambers of Congress). But the challenges we face have morphed into more insidious, ugly threats to democracy and our personal liberties. Democrats must recapture the sense of determination, energy, and enthusiasm that propelled us to victories in 2018 and 2020.

          Although it may take the demise of Roe and Casey to fully rouse Americans to defend democracy and liberty, it took the election of Donald Trump to turn tens of millions of Americans into political activists. We must now convince the next generation of Americans to join us in the struggle to redeem democracy once again.

          These are challenging times. Rest when you can, spend time with friends and family, and show up for duty on Monday, ready to rejoin the battle!

          Have a good weekend! Talk to you on Monday!