Poor Florida. De Santis has no excuse. He is venal, corrupt, and cynical—a very small man. Note that it is the marketplace that brings the furies of climate change to roost. Money is the only thing that catches some people’s attention, especially property value. Thank you for calming our nerves about the election analysis.
When friends and I were on our way to a pro-abortion rally after the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v Wade, two Black men on the train asked where we were going. I would say they were in their mid-late 30s. I had turned my poster messages in towards each other, but a friend had not, and seeing it, the men asked her about it. One told us he had not voted in almost 15 years. The other one said he had never voted. Then, once they understood where we were going, one said he was not for abortion because his mother had not wanted him and she might have aborted him. It reminded me that a lot of Conservative Blacks do not believe in abortion, seeing it as diminishing their numbers. So, abortion might not be the issue to get Black voters out. Anyway, women's health care in this country is shot because of the anti abortion laws and the prevalence of Catholic Health Services in this country, even in Blue States. All of the Catholic Universities health services will not cover birth control or abortion. When I was a student, working in a cool revival movie theater, one of my co-workers who was also in college got pregnant from a Roadie of a Band that came into our town. She was attending a Catholic university and could not get any help, and did not make enough to afford it on her own. It was abstinence, abstinence, abstinence all the way with her health care. That is the health care that many women are left with and those who want children are no longer able to get good prenatal care in any state where doctors are worried about getting in legal trouble for what used to be routine good care. Our nation is not training enough OB-GYNs anymore because many cannot get their rotations in their training for OB-GYN care that includes abortion. We already have a shortage of doctors. The whole things is just ignorant and cruel. Republican policies are typically cruel of women and children so that is no surprise.---As for Florida, a state I talked my nephew out of attending for grad school, and where I did not want my daughter to vacation with her apolitical friend who was pulling her to vacation there because she likes a hotel in Palm Beach a lot. I was assured that the owners were Democrats, at the same time, down the street the Sheriff has to deal with Nazis causing trouble. Yeech! We know whom they voted for governor. The wetland destruction of Florida is supported by the ignorant, vicious and evil members of the Supreme Court, since they claim to understand where a wetland begins and ends. Not their job to determine, but they did this anyway. I have suggested in a letter to the Biden Administration that FEMA not give any insurance payout to anyone unless they use it to 1) not rebuild in the same place, particularly not a wetland, flood or fire zone 2) they must rebuild using government approved zero carbon plans. In fact, they should have to use solar energy as well as other sources of non carbon energy. It would be a great if the first part of this letter were sent to some widely read Florida papers. I imagine that many would just put their heads in the sand. However, it might jolt some to wake up and think. After all, that is what WOKE is, is being awake and aware. We know that DeSatan likes his folks to be asleep.
I'm not sure that meeting a couple of men on a train is the right venue, but a possible thoughtful response to their concern about abortion would be to point out that abortion bans make appropriate miscarriage care difficult, putting the lives of women at risk due to infection or bleeding. We already have a problem with very high maternal mortality among Black women in this country--rates similar to those of women in developing countries. Abortion bans are likely to make that worse.
I really did not want to have a conversation with them about abortion after the guy told me why he was against abortion. I just felt like it was a lost cause, and that is one of the reasons I travel with my signs inward to the rallies. It was not the context to convert men who I was guessing do not have a lot of investment in women's health care, if they don't care about their own mother's health over their existence. It clearly was that personal. If my mother had aborted me, so be it. I don't romanticize my existence like that. But, I understand that some people do. I spent my energy convincing them to vote, and they said that they would. I will have to hope they don't vote for Trump. I have seen black men working for his campaign on the streets, and I know someone gave them money to do so.
In my own anecdotal experience a lot of men of color typically are very socially conservative, at least in the way that they want to have all of the fun they want, but they want women and other men to behave in a traditional manner. i.e. - they don't want to pay child support, want to date multiple women and not get married, but the concept of women having autonomy and reproductive choice literally makes the uncomfortable. I'm a mixed race person, and my Grandparents had 8 kids, and I have about 65 first and second cousins. None of my 5 Uncles vote, and none of my 40+ male cousins vote, (all black men). It's super sad. No matter how much they complain about politics, or institutional racism, they won't go out and vote to change anything. It's like they want immediate gratification or are afraid of being let down? I honestly don't know. I've had so many conversations, I try to put my effort into people that are willing to put the effort into the system and be at the table to make change at this point.
I hear your frustration and my family is a multicolored one itself. All of the Black men in my family who are older have been active voters, who are older, and fought in Civil Rights movement, but the younger ones vary. Most are busy making money, and I do not know who votes. My nephew lives with us as a young Brown man, working on his PHD in an environmental engineering field, and he is voting. In Chicago where we live, the public schools no longer give complete drivers education. Instead they just teach up to the written test. So, many families who do not have cars themselves, cannot take their children to get IDs and then they are missing a basic ID to get registered. Getting hold of Birth certificates costs money too. My daughter suggests that necessary ID for voting should be free. Would most Americans support the government issuing a voter card that was validated like a DL, but was free? Hard to say? Still, if voting is a right, then access to it should be free. I had a colleague who considered himself White because he did not learn Spanish from his mom, although his heritage is Mexican. He does not vote because he says it does not count. So, it is a malaise in the youth particularly those who have had a lot done for them. I hope that spending so much time on electronics does not turn their activism down. I think the electoral college really turns people off of voting too, or seeing how their vote counts in a presidential election. I have spent a lot of time arguing with this friend in the past, so has his wife, but he will not see it. I don't give up, but I also don't spend a lot of time on it. It helps to argue with people that think differently, because it hones your thinking skills.
Completely understand that--that's why I made the comment about the "right venue." I just find that sometimes after a conversation, I realize what I might have said, and I try to file those thoughts away for use in a future similar situation.
Linda Weid said DeSantis wants his people to be asleep, not woke. Most religions try to wake people up. Rumi wrote, “Don’t go back to sleep,” and Jesus asked his disciples to watch with him in the garden on his last night before his assassination. Another reason movements are wanting the populace to stay asleep is to avoid facing the logical consequences of the disproportionate privilege many of us have inherited from the misdeeds of our cultural ancestors. It’s not about individual guilt, but there is a systemic issue of reparations that is only logical and mathematic.
Reader Joan Lessing sent this comment to me for posting:
I do not understand why deSantis is still considered credible by anyone. Perhaps the decision by the insurance companies to leave Florida will wake up some of his supporters. Or perhaps they just (hypocritically) plan on taking FEMA money, paid for by taxes paid in ‘blue’ states? I assume that it would be nasty to suggest that as Florida refused help pre-catastrophe, they should be denied help after the fact?
There was a comment about abortion rights and the anti-abortion views of Blacks. I think that what needs to be emphasized is not so much ‘abortion’, but rather women’s health. Statistics have shown that Black women are at greater risk during pregnancy and birth than others. The new laws in some states are so draconian that all women are at greater risk if there are complications during pregnancy.
Jul 14, 2023·edited Jul 14, 2023Liked by Robert B. Hubbell
We have had a number of summer interns from TurnUp join us on our Markers For Democracy postcarding zooms in the last few weeks, as they check out different activism groups. They are delightful young people who are dedicated to making change in the world. We have great conversations with them, they are eager to learn, and they ask thoughtful questions of visiting candidates and organizations. A breath of fresh air that gives us hope for the future!
Many Democrats myself included believed that the “ Whole Foods crowd” in major metropolitan areas could provide enough voters to counter act the “ Cracker Value” crowd in the rural areas. That has not been the case and instead of just tying to increase the metro areas voter base Democrats need to give rural voters a reason to vote Democratic. The Biden Administration has done more for rural areas than previous Democrats by delivering a variety of programs and jobs but the message has not gotten through. The opportunity to change this dynamic is to appeal to younger voters with a focus on what there future would or could look like . Based on discussion with several college professors they feel that today’s students are turned off by the negative continuous stream of messaging on their social platforms and are turned off by most politicians and the polarized environment. This demographic is our future and we need to figure out how to appeal to them and there needs.
That is precisely why President Biden’s speech was so important. It is one of the few times in recent memory that I have heard a positive, strong, and optimistic speech from any politician. People want to feel empowered to make change, not just poke the other person in the eye. Leave the name calling for the playground set. We , as a global community, have massive issues to tackle which will require all of us working together. Living in fear and anger won’t get us anywhere.
And as usual the republicans that voted against these things are still standing up in their communities to take credit, which is why they keep getting voted in. Those constituents don't bother pulling back the very, VERY thin veil to see their electeds actually hate them.
I live in a red purple district that elected a Democrat who is trying to thread the needle between winning over rural, blue-collar people, and urban and suburban voters who comprise her base. The situation is complicated and involves determining whether you can appeal to both constituencies.
Part of figuring this out involves counting how many young voters you have the opportunity to turn out because they lean far more Democratic than other groups, especially if they are in urban and suburban areas. Then you compare that with rural, blue-collar voters who are often already committed Republicans and are very difficult to flip.
Robert was very helpful in alerting us to the Michael Podhorzer study on the emerging antiMAGA majority, where he shows how much living in a red or blue region influences voting patterns, even among groups that you would expect to lean in your direction.
I believe that an inference can be made between Podhorzer’s refined characterizations that bring together region and demographics, and this can be applied to urban, suburban, and rural parts of the same congressional district. Podhorzer’s writing emphasizes what you might do in an evenly-divided, purple district, although he cautions that his recommendation is not a prescription for a particular candidate. You have to dig into the data to make inferences that might help you target messaging and where you concentrate turnout operations.
Robert, your newsletter is my north star. Today's post is even more exceptional than most. Thank you for all of the leads on understanding the behavior of U.S. voters, and especially for a link to turning out young voters who overwhelmingly vote Democratic. The way to stop authoritarianism is to stop it. Failure is not an option.
Turnout is definitely the name of the game in VA, with no state-wide election, but the entire legislature up. At 31st St., we are vigorously promoting it. And well-executed voter outreach can be effective. But R Gov. Youngkin is mobilizing also, per this recent Washington Post: https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2023/07/11/virginia-youngkin-republican-early-vote/
In large part due to responses to Robert's newsletter, we have now raised over $164,000 of vital early money toward our goal of $200,000. But would welcome additional support to push us over. https://secure.actblue.com/donate/31ststvaleg23?refcode=outreach
By the way, in my initial canvassing in VA, abortion is clearly a potent and persuasive issue.
In 2017 the then German Minister for the Environment visited California. After a meeting with Gov. Jerry Brown she was asked how much of an obstacle would be the policies of the new administration in Washington in the worldwide efforts to combat climate change. She answered that the planet would survive a term of President Trump – and perhaps even a second one.
I doubt she would give the same answer today. It was quite chilling to see a clip of a recent campaign event where tfg to the frenzied applause and laughter of his followers quipped that the rising sea levels would produce more beachfront properties.
Thank you, Robert, for pointing out in today's newsletter that not only the IQ-challenged
pied piper but also the other possible contender for the Presidency is a card carrying member of the climate change deniers who have no qualms to run our planet into the ground.
Should for whatever reason tfg not get the nomination that should not be a reason for a sigh of relief.
And yet.... Trump, presuming he is the GOPs nominee in 2024, will get 60 million +/- votes. I sit here in the NE and don't get it. I don't get how millions upon millions of people will support Trump and numerous of his down-ballot acolytes. Are his moral failings not known? Don't most of the people in the world, to say nothing of the US, understand that Trump can't help himself? He lies, then exaggerates, then lies some more, and finally blames someone else.
I live in the metro Denver area. I was raised in the eastern Kansas area, which is really the only Democratic area in KS. Further, I have been lucky to live in many areas of the US and internationally and have travelled a lot. I share this to generally say, many of us left our more rural or Midwest roots to pursue careers and explore the world. We have lived with one foot in a more rural area and one in a more urban/ city area. Family visits have helped me stay grounded and also to discourage further us vs them, rural vs urban, college educated vs non college educated, etc. As long as people are focused on what is ‘wrong’ with others, the wedge between grows. Yes, I disagree regularly with family members yet I seek first to understand why they hold those opinions and in return, share mine. Thankfully, most of my family can still have a respectful conversation. We value our family connection first, political affiliation down the list.
To appeal to each other we must go walk side by side and listen to the stories and seek answers that involved a shared gain. It is hard work but we all need to put on our diplomat hats. The constant ‘other’ focus is just fertilizing the toxic environment.
There are many times I want to give up because the gap in opinions and experiences of living feels so wide. We have to lead with acknowledging common humanity and decency. And of course, some people will not approach anything this way and hold views we cannot and must not tolerate, such as white nationalism. Yet, most of the people we need to help maintain our democracy who are not voting with Democrats just want some respect and to be heard first.
You probably know all of this, so I will stop now. I just don’t want us to give up hope in real engagement with others who have a different opinion.
I'm not disagreeing with what you have said. And I agree we ought to talk. But it doesn't explain to me how people in NW Florida or Western Kansas or Western Colorado can vote for Trump or Josh Hawley or Lauren Boebert. They lie habitually; I don't trust that their interests and mine are in the same ballpark.
I am smiling, because we definitely are not disagreeing! I don’t understand it all either, even when I do sit and listen and absorb it all. There are days I just shake my head and wonder if we aren’t just having different opinions but live on different planets. Lauren Boebert is interested in trying to have some power and money and will lie as much as necessary in an effort to gain them. But then, she or Josh Hawley is not who I want to change, as that is a waste of time. I just want people who might be hesitating with the messaging and extreme beliefs being spouted by all those names like Boebert and Hawley to crack the door open a wee bit, and let me try to forge a relationship and have a discussion. I spent years in international travel, and I am determined to get kids out of their towns, counties, states, and country to see and experience other places, people, and lifestyles so they begin to establish their own ideas and not just the opinions of their families, etc.
That said, my personal experience as a Florida resident and homeowner, has been a struggle just to keep my home insured. While I've been fortunate, having survived relatively unscathed in my house through Hurricanes Charley, Irma, and most recently Ian (by far, the worst of any hurricane I've ever experienced, having lived most of life in Florida (45+/- years) and Louisiana (12 years), which have been numerous. Each of the past two years I've had my insurance cancelled, despite filing no claims. My agent has struggled to find a replacement, but each time my rates have increased by $400-$500.
Most Floridians have reached the point that they live with a dread of the thought of having to navigate through the nightmare that is filing insurance claims, knowing that it will result in likely cancellation and/or substantial increases in rates, despite the insurance company working diligently to find ways to NOT pay claims, or pay as little as possible, usually insufficient to cover the damages caused. This is on top of outrageous deductible and confounding clauses regarding the distinctions of what kind of wind damage/rain damage/tidal surge is covered and what is not...which is as little as they can get away with.
Of course, JEB!, Rick "Voldemort" Scott, and now Ron DeSatan, and their lapdog legislatures, have all sided with the insurance companies time and time again. You hear politicians calling Florida "paradise." I once felt that way, but no longer. I suspect I'm not alone.
You are not alone! When we sold our Florida home last year, we had to replace a perfectly good roof (per inspection), because buyers could not get a homeowners policy if the roof was more than 15 years old. Citizens insurance (via the state) has liability limits, so at certain price points a buyer must look to a ge broader insurance industry.
Simon Rosenberg’s analysis is spot on. Turnout among POC and youth made the difference in preventing a red wave in 2022. And a mere 6,700 more votes (not in swing states, but in CA and NY) would have saved the House. I’m a fan and supporter of Movement Voter Project (www.movement.vote) because they identify, vet and support the best grassroots groups to turnout voters in close races across the country. They have advisors on the ground who know the landscape, know which races are winnable, and make investment decisions accordingly. So many races in 2022 were decided by the tiniest margins - it’s critical that we use our time and dollars where they can make the difference between winning and losing!
Before DeSantis, Florida was”blessed to have that Republican “paragon. Of virtue” RickScott, who would not allow anyone in his administration to utter the words, “climate change.” I have lived in Florid for over 50 years, and am constantly amazes at the ignorance of the people who call themselves rRepublicans.
Thank you for highlighting the insurance industry’s influence on climate policy and noting DeSantis’s madness on the subject. It is mind-boggling, with his state being so completely vulnerable to a changing climate, that he blocks any and all efforts to help Floridians cope.
I live in a blue trifecta state that has a long history of good environmental protections. This year, we passed a 100% renewable energy standard that means by 2040, we will get our electricity largely from wind and solar. The bad news, as you highlighted, is that it make may little difference in our lives in the bigger scheme of things.
Last winter was the third wettest winter on record in Minnesota. Most of that moisture came in the form of ice storms rather than snow. I used to love winter but got completely fed up just trying to walk my dog! I’m healthy and active at 69 but know way too many people who were housebound for months. Ironically, my climate denier neighbor complained bitterly.
Today? Back in severe drought according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. In just two months, we went from excessive moisture to cracked earth. And today marks the return of Canadian wildfire smoke to our airways with all it’s dangers. Oh joy.
I hope insurers start to sound the climate alarm. In the meantime, I will work to register new voters and help get out the vote. It’s the climate, stupid!!
I'm very disturbed by Senator Tuberville single-handedly holding up 250 military confirmations over women in the military having access to reproductive care. Military bases are federal property not property of the state. Since the Extreme Court has washed their hands of reproductive rights there is NO federal law on abortion. Making it just for the women of the military is targeting one particular group of women so it would seem that wouldn't be legal if appealed to the Courts. Seems like if a woman takes off from one military base and goes to another, she is never stepping into any state so the state has no jurisdiction over her. And, if the Senate passes the Defense bill with the restriction on women flying somewhere for an abortion, then let the military doctors fly to the women. Just hearing that the NDAA just passed. Sounds like it was passed with the "wokeness" removed. VOTE in 2024. Vow to throw the MAGA/FEDSOC Republicans out of all elected offices - local, state and federal! Do you know what you call a woman Marine? Answer: a Marine! Always liked that!
Greetings, all, from soggy Montpelier, Vermont, where we are all reeling and weeping. Mother Nature is angry with all of us and dumped a gigantic tank of water on the Green Mountains here, leaving the downtown by the river deep in stinking, sewage-y water. We wonder whether we are the next state to become uninsurable too. And yet, people who are hard hit by global warming insist on rebuilding whether they are instead of working on mitigation and thinking ahead. One scratches one's head at human folly.
Poor Florida. De Santis has no excuse. He is venal, corrupt, and cynical—a very small man. Note that it is the marketplace that brings the furies of climate change to roost. Money is the only thing that catches some people’s attention, especially property value. Thank you for calming our nerves about the election analysis.
When friends and I were on our way to a pro-abortion rally after the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v Wade, two Black men on the train asked where we were going. I would say they were in their mid-late 30s. I had turned my poster messages in towards each other, but a friend had not, and seeing it, the men asked her about it. One told us he had not voted in almost 15 years. The other one said he had never voted. Then, once they understood where we were going, one said he was not for abortion because his mother had not wanted him and she might have aborted him. It reminded me that a lot of Conservative Blacks do not believe in abortion, seeing it as diminishing their numbers. So, abortion might not be the issue to get Black voters out. Anyway, women's health care in this country is shot because of the anti abortion laws and the prevalence of Catholic Health Services in this country, even in Blue States. All of the Catholic Universities health services will not cover birth control or abortion. When I was a student, working in a cool revival movie theater, one of my co-workers who was also in college got pregnant from a Roadie of a Band that came into our town. She was attending a Catholic university and could not get any help, and did not make enough to afford it on her own. It was abstinence, abstinence, abstinence all the way with her health care. That is the health care that many women are left with and those who want children are no longer able to get good prenatal care in any state where doctors are worried about getting in legal trouble for what used to be routine good care. Our nation is not training enough OB-GYNs anymore because many cannot get their rotations in their training for OB-GYN care that includes abortion. We already have a shortage of doctors. The whole things is just ignorant and cruel. Republican policies are typically cruel of women and children so that is no surprise.---As for Florida, a state I talked my nephew out of attending for grad school, and where I did not want my daughter to vacation with her apolitical friend who was pulling her to vacation there because she likes a hotel in Palm Beach a lot. I was assured that the owners were Democrats, at the same time, down the street the Sheriff has to deal with Nazis causing trouble. Yeech! We know whom they voted for governor. The wetland destruction of Florida is supported by the ignorant, vicious and evil members of the Supreme Court, since they claim to understand where a wetland begins and ends. Not their job to determine, but they did this anyway. I have suggested in a letter to the Biden Administration that FEMA not give any insurance payout to anyone unless they use it to 1) not rebuild in the same place, particularly not a wetland, flood or fire zone 2) they must rebuild using government approved zero carbon plans. In fact, they should have to use solar energy as well as other sources of non carbon energy. It would be a great if the first part of this letter were sent to some widely read Florida papers. I imagine that many would just put their heads in the sand. However, it might jolt some to wake up and think. After all, that is what WOKE is, is being awake and aware. We know that DeSatan likes his folks to be asleep.
I'm not sure that meeting a couple of men on a train is the right venue, but a possible thoughtful response to their concern about abortion would be to point out that abortion bans make appropriate miscarriage care difficult, putting the lives of women at risk due to infection or bleeding. We already have a problem with very high maternal mortality among Black women in this country--rates similar to those of women in developing countries. Abortion bans are likely to make that worse.
I really did not want to have a conversation with them about abortion after the guy told me why he was against abortion. I just felt like it was a lost cause, and that is one of the reasons I travel with my signs inward to the rallies. It was not the context to convert men who I was guessing do not have a lot of investment in women's health care, if they don't care about their own mother's health over their existence. It clearly was that personal. If my mother had aborted me, so be it. I don't romanticize my existence like that. But, I understand that some people do. I spent my energy convincing them to vote, and they said that they would. I will have to hope they don't vote for Trump. I have seen black men working for his campaign on the streets, and I know someone gave them money to do so.
In my own anecdotal experience a lot of men of color typically are very socially conservative, at least in the way that they want to have all of the fun they want, but they want women and other men to behave in a traditional manner. i.e. - they don't want to pay child support, want to date multiple women and not get married, but the concept of women having autonomy and reproductive choice literally makes the uncomfortable. I'm a mixed race person, and my Grandparents had 8 kids, and I have about 65 first and second cousins. None of my 5 Uncles vote, and none of my 40+ male cousins vote, (all black men). It's super sad. No matter how much they complain about politics, or institutional racism, they won't go out and vote to change anything. It's like they want immediate gratification or are afraid of being let down? I honestly don't know. I've had so many conversations, I try to put my effort into people that are willing to put the effort into the system and be at the table to make change at this point.
I hear your frustration and my family is a multicolored one itself. All of the Black men in my family who are older have been active voters, who are older, and fought in Civil Rights movement, but the younger ones vary. Most are busy making money, and I do not know who votes. My nephew lives with us as a young Brown man, working on his PHD in an environmental engineering field, and he is voting. In Chicago where we live, the public schools no longer give complete drivers education. Instead they just teach up to the written test. So, many families who do not have cars themselves, cannot take their children to get IDs and then they are missing a basic ID to get registered. Getting hold of Birth certificates costs money too. My daughter suggests that necessary ID for voting should be free. Would most Americans support the government issuing a voter card that was validated like a DL, but was free? Hard to say? Still, if voting is a right, then access to it should be free. I had a colleague who considered himself White because he did not learn Spanish from his mom, although his heritage is Mexican. He does not vote because he says it does not count. So, it is a malaise in the youth particularly those who have had a lot done for them. I hope that spending so much time on electronics does not turn their activism down. I think the electoral college really turns people off of voting too, or seeing how their vote counts in a presidential election. I have spent a lot of time arguing with this friend in the past, so has his wife, but he will not see it. I don't give up, but I also don't spend a lot of time on it. It helps to argue with people that think differently, because it hones your thinking skills.
Linda,perhaps you’re aware of this org ? They can help get ID’s and all their services are free.
https://www.voteriders.org/
Thank you Kathy. This is helpful to know. How would people find out about this? Is it advertised?
Completely understand that--that's why I made the comment about the "right venue." I just find that sometimes after a conversation, I realize what I might have said, and I try to file those thoughts away for use in a future similar situation.
I especially liked your idea of no FEMA $$ without climate-friendly locations and products being used.
Linda Weid said DeSantis wants his people to be asleep, not woke. Most religions try to wake people up. Rumi wrote, “Don’t go back to sleep,” and Jesus asked his disciples to watch with him in the garden on his last night before his assassination. Another reason movements are wanting the populace to stay asleep is to avoid facing the logical consequences of the disproportionate privilege many of us have inherited from the misdeeds of our cultural ancestors. It’s not about individual guilt, but there is a systemic issue of reparations that is only logical and mathematic.
Reader Joan Lessing sent this comment to me for posting:
I do not understand why deSantis is still considered credible by anyone. Perhaps the decision by the insurance companies to leave Florida will wake up some of his supporters. Or perhaps they just (hypocritically) plan on taking FEMA money, paid for by taxes paid in ‘blue’ states? I assume that it would be nasty to suggest that as Florida refused help pre-catastrophe, they should be denied help after the fact?
There was a comment about abortion rights and the anti-abortion views of Blacks. I think that what needs to be emphasized is not so much ‘abortion’, but rather women’s health. Statistics have shown that Black women are at greater risk during pregnancy and birth than others. The new laws in some states are so draconian that all women are at greater risk if there are complications during pregnancy.
We have had a number of summer interns from TurnUp join us on our Markers For Democracy postcarding zooms in the last few weeks, as they check out different activism groups. They are delightful young people who are dedicated to making change in the world. We have great conversations with them, they are eager to learn, and they ask thoughtful questions of visiting candidates and organizations. A breath of fresh air that gives us hope for the future!
So good to hear. We need that right now 🌎
Many Democrats myself included believed that the “ Whole Foods crowd” in major metropolitan areas could provide enough voters to counter act the “ Cracker Value” crowd in the rural areas. That has not been the case and instead of just tying to increase the metro areas voter base Democrats need to give rural voters a reason to vote Democratic. The Biden Administration has done more for rural areas than previous Democrats by delivering a variety of programs and jobs but the message has not gotten through. The opportunity to change this dynamic is to appeal to younger voters with a focus on what there future would or could look like . Based on discussion with several college professors they feel that today’s students are turned off by the negative continuous stream of messaging on their social platforms and are turned off by most politicians and the polarized environment. This demographic is our future and we need to figure out how to appeal to them and there needs.
That is precisely why President Biden’s speech was so important. It is one of the few times in recent memory that I have heard a positive, strong, and optimistic speech from any politician. People want to feel empowered to make change, not just poke the other person in the eye. Leave the name calling for the playground set. We , as a global community, have massive issues to tackle which will require all of us working together. Living in fear and anger won’t get us anywhere.
Agree but unfortunately many people don’t share our view of the world.
And as usual the republicans that voted against these things are still standing up in their communities to take credit, which is why they keep getting voted in. Those constituents don't bother pulling back the very, VERY thin veil to see their electeds actually hate them.
I live in a red purple district that elected a Democrat who is trying to thread the needle between winning over rural, blue-collar people, and urban and suburban voters who comprise her base. The situation is complicated and involves determining whether you can appeal to both constituencies.
Part of figuring this out involves counting how many young voters you have the opportunity to turn out because they lean far more Democratic than other groups, especially if they are in urban and suburban areas. Then you compare that with rural, blue-collar voters who are often already committed Republicans and are very difficult to flip.
Robert was very helpful in alerting us to the Michael Podhorzer study on the emerging antiMAGA majority, where he shows how much living in a red or blue region influences voting patterns, even among groups that you would expect to lean in your direction.
I believe that an inference can be made between Podhorzer’s refined characterizations that bring together region and demographics, and this can be applied to urban, suburban, and rural parts of the same congressional district. Podhorzer’s writing emphasizes what you might do in an evenly-divided, purple district, although he cautions that his recommendation is not a prescription for a particular candidate. You have to dig into the data to make inferences that might help you target messaging and where you concentrate turnout operations.
Here is the link, again, to Podhorzer’s post.
https://michaelpodhorzer.substack.com/p/the-emerging-anti-maga-majority
That's why republicans keep making it more difficult for college-aged people to vote.
Robert, your newsletter is my north star. Today's post is even more exceptional than most. Thank you for all of the leads on understanding the behavior of U.S. voters, and especially for a link to turning out young voters who overwhelmingly vote Democratic. The way to stop authoritarianism is to stop it. Failure is not an option.
Turnout is definitely the name of the game in VA, with no state-wide election, but the entire legislature up. At 31st St., we are vigorously promoting it. And well-executed voter outreach can be effective. But R Gov. Youngkin is mobilizing also, per this recent Washington Post: https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2023/07/11/virginia-youngkin-republican-early-vote/
In large part due to responses to Robert's newsletter, we have now raised over $164,000 of vital early money toward our goal of $200,000. But would welcome additional support to push us over. https://secure.actblue.com/donate/31ststvaleg23?refcode=outreach
By the way, in my initial canvassing in VA, abortion is clearly a potent and persuasive issue.
Robert, CNN has updated their article. It was Farmers ( not State Farm) that pulled out of Florida.
Our CFO had a scathing press release calling Farmers the “ Bud Lite” of insurance and blaming insurance executives for ( surprise ! ) woke policies.
Please all keep writing, calling, getting out the vote, whatever you can ! it We do not want to make America Florida !!
thanks. I will make the correction in the online version.
In 2017 the then German Minister for the Environment visited California. After a meeting with Gov. Jerry Brown she was asked how much of an obstacle would be the policies of the new administration in Washington in the worldwide efforts to combat climate change. She answered that the planet would survive a term of President Trump – and perhaps even a second one.
I doubt she would give the same answer today. It was quite chilling to see a clip of a recent campaign event where tfg to the frenzied applause and laughter of his followers quipped that the rising sea levels would produce more beachfront properties.
Thank you, Robert, for pointing out in today's newsletter that not only the IQ-challenged
pied piper but also the other possible contender for the Presidency is a card carrying member of the climate change deniers who have no qualms to run our planet into the ground.
Should for whatever reason tfg not get the nomination that should not be a reason for a sigh of relief.
And yet.... Trump, presuming he is the GOPs nominee in 2024, will get 60 million +/- votes. I sit here in the NE and don't get it. I don't get how millions upon millions of people will support Trump and numerous of his down-ballot acolytes. Are his moral failings not known? Don't most of the people in the world, to say nothing of the US, understand that Trump can't help himself? He lies, then exaggerates, then lies some more, and finally blames someone else.
I live in the metro Denver area. I was raised in the eastern Kansas area, which is really the only Democratic area in KS. Further, I have been lucky to live in many areas of the US and internationally and have travelled a lot. I share this to generally say, many of us left our more rural or Midwest roots to pursue careers and explore the world. We have lived with one foot in a more rural area and one in a more urban/ city area. Family visits have helped me stay grounded and also to discourage further us vs them, rural vs urban, college educated vs non college educated, etc. As long as people are focused on what is ‘wrong’ with others, the wedge between grows. Yes, I disagree regularly with family members yet I seek first to understand why they hold those opinions and in return, share mine. Thankfully, most of my family can still have a respectful conversation. We value our family connection first, political affiliation down the list.
To appeal to each other we must go walk side by side and listen to the stories and seek answers that involved a shared gain. It is hard work but we all need to put on our diplomat hats. The constant ‘other’ focus is just fertilizing the toxic environment.
There are many times I want to give up because the gap in opinions and experiences of living feels so wide. We have to lead with acknowledging common humanity and decency. And of course, some people will not approach anything this way and hold views we cannot and must not tolerate, such as white nationalism. Yet, most of the people we need to help maintain our democracy who are not voting with Democrats just want some respect and to be heard first.
You probably know all of this, so I will stop now. I just don’t want us to give up hope in real engagement with others who have a different opinion.
I'm not disagreeing with what you have said. And I agree we ought to talk. But it doesn't explain to me how people in NW Florida or Western Kansas or Western Colorado can vote for Trump or Josh Hawley or Lauren Boebert. They lie habitually; I don't trust that their interests and mine are in the same ballpark.
I am smiling, because we definitely are not disagreeing! I don’t understand it all either, even when I do sit and listen and absorb it all. There are days I just shake my head and wonder if we aren’t just having different opinions but live on different planets. Lauren Boebert is interested in trying to have some power and money and will lie as much as necessary in an effort to gain them. But then, she or Josh Hawley is not who I want to change, as that is a waste of time. I just want people who might be hesitating with the messaging and extreme beliefs being spouted by all those names like Boebert and Hawley to crack the door open a wee bit, and let me try to forge a relationship and have a discussion. I spent years in international travel, and I am determined to get kids out of their towns, counties, states, and country to see and experience other places, people, and lifestyles so they begin to establish their own ideas and not just the opinions of their families, etc.
Onward!
And, yes, I know Hawley is from neighboring Missouri. So I add Kris Kobach.
This is not about pineapple on pizza, it's about the utter lack of humanity that republicans willingly and willfully ignorantly support.
They love him because they too hope to get away with crimes like that...
Robert, I want to point out a major error in Today's Edition regarding homeowners insurance in Florida. You state State Farm Insurance is the latest to pull out of the state. It is not "State Farm," but rather Farmer's Insurance. (https://www.newsnationnow.com/business/your-money/state-farm-recommits-its-coverage-in-florida-amid-environmental-risks/ and https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/12/business/farmers-insurance-florida/index.html).
That said, my personal experience as a Florida resident and homeowner, has been a struggle just to keep my home insured. While I've been fortunate, having survived relatively unscathed in my house through Hurricanes Charley, Irma, and most recently Ian (by far, the worst of any hurricane I've ever experienced, having lived most of life in Florida (45+/- years) and Louisiana (12 years), which have been numerous. Each of the past two years I've had my insurance cancelled, despite filing no claims. My agent has struggled to find a replacement, but each time my rates have increased by $400-$500.
Most Floridians have reached the point that they live with a dread of the thought of having to navigate through the nightmare that is filing insurance claims, knowing that it will result in likely cancellation and/or substantial increases in rates, despite the insurance company working diligently to find ways to NOT pay claims, or pay as little as possible, usually insufficient to cover the damages caused. This is on top of outrageous deductible and confounding clauses regarding the distinctions of what kind of wind damage/rain damage/tidal surge is covered and what is not...which is as little as they can get away with.
Of course, JEB!, Rick "Voldemort" Scott, and now Ron DeSatan, and their lapdog legislatures, have all sided with the insurance companies time and time again. You hear politicians calling Florida "paradise." I once felt that way, but no longer. I suspect I'm not alone.
Sorry for the confusion about State Farm v. Farmers. That's why I link to original sources. The CNN article I cited has the correct facts.
State Farm pulled out of California, not Florida.
You are not alone! When we sold our Florida home last year, we had to replace a perfectly good roof (per inspection), because buyers could not get a homeowners policy if the roof was more than 15 years old. Citizens insurance (via the state) has liability limits, so at certain price points a buyer must look to a ge broader insurance industry.
Simon Rosenberg’s analysis is spot on. Turnout among POC and youth made the difference in preventing a red wave in 2022. And a mere 6,700 more votes (not in swing states, but in CA and NY) would have saved the House. I’m a fan and supporter of Movement Voter Project (www.movement.vote) because they identify, vet and support the best grassroots groups to turnout voters in close races across the country. They have advisors on the ground who know the landscape, know which races are winnable, and make investment decisions accordingly. So many races in 2022 were decided by the tiniest margins - it’s critical that we use our time and dollars where they can make the difference between winning and losing!
I too am a huge supporter of Movement Voter Project.
Before DeSantis, Florida was”blessed to have that Republican “paragon. Of virtue” RickScott, who would not allow anyone in his administration to utter the words, “climate change.” I have lived in Florid for over 50 years, and am constantly amazes at the ignorance of the people who call themselves rRepublicans.
Thank you for highlighting the insurance industry’s influence on climate policy and noting DeSantis’s madness on the subject. It is mind-boggling, with his state being so completely vulnerable to a changing climate, that he blocks any and all efforts to help Floridians cope.
I live in a blue trifecta state that has a long history of good environmental protections. This year, we passed a 100% renewable energy standard that means by 2040, we will get our electricity largely from wind and solar. The bad news, as you highlighted, is that it make may little difference in our lives in the bigger scheme of things.
Last winter was the third wettest winter on record in Minnesota. Most of that moisture came in the form of ice storms rather than snow. I used to love winter but got completely fed up just trying to walk my dog! I’m healthy and active at 69 but know way too many people who were housebound for months. Ironically, my climate denier neighbor complained bitterly.
Today? Back in severe drought according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. In just two months, we went from excessive moisture to cracked earth. And today marks the return of Canadian wildfire smoke to our airways with all it’s dangers. Oh joy.
I hope insurers start to sound the climate alarm. In the meantime, I will work to register new voters and help get out the vote. It’s the climate, stupid!!
I'm very disturbed by Senator Tuberville single-handedly holding up 250 military confirmations over women in the military having access to reproductive care. Military bases are federal property not property of the state. Since the Extreme Court has washed their hands of reproductive rights there is NO federal law on abortion. Making it just for the women of the military is targeting one particular group of women so it would seem that wouldn't be legal if appealed to the Courts. Seems like if a woman takes off from one military base and goes to another, she is never stepping into any state so the state has no jurisdiction over her. And, if the Senate passes the Defense bill with the restriction on women flying somewhere for an abortion, then let the military doctors fly to the women. Just hearing that the NDAA just passed. Sounds like it was passed with the "wokeness" removed. VOTE in 2024. Vow to throw the MAGA/FEDSOC Republicans out of all elected offices - local, state and federal! Do you know what you call a woman Marine? Answer: a Marine! Always liked that!
Greetings, all, from soggy Montpelier, Vermont, where we are all reeling and weeping. Mother Nature is angry with all of us and dumped a gigantic tank of water on the Green Mountains here, leaving the downtown by the river deep in stinking, sewage-y water. We wonder whether we are the next state to become uninsurable too. And yet, people who are hard hit by global warming insist on rebuilding whether they are instead of working on mitigation and thinking ahead. One scratches one's head at human folly.
Anyone got a bucket and mop? Come on in.
Ugh. Sorry to hear about the situation in Montpelier. I hope cleanup proceeds quickly!