126 Comments

Polls are a strange and perplexing activity. I don't blame the people who do it and are paid for their efforts. But: who answers unknown phone calls? I don't. And, in the exceptionally rare cases where I do, I answer it full of suspicion. If someone unknown called me, and I answered for some unusual reason, and the caller identified themselves as working for the NYT, or Nate Cohn or whomever, I would be so suspicious that the person was lying or calling from St Petersburg, that I would then dis-connect. I can't be the only one who doesn't trust strangers on their phones. So who exactly is giving pollsters answers? And why should we be believe they are representative of anyone normal?

Expand full comment
Apr 17·edited Apr 17Liked by Robert B. Hubbell

Thank you for stating what has been an obvious imbalance in what constitutes polling for me. It is old school practice that isn't even close to capturing reality in society. Just like the electoral college is outdated, so is the concept of polling via phone calling to landlines in order to capture voter opinion.

Expand full comment
Apr 17·edited Apr 17Liked by Robert B. Hubbell

Also, there is the matter of how the questions are framed--you can get almost any answer you want to get, depending on the way the question is worded and framed. There is an equally wide gap between how people answer polls and how they actually vote in the privacy of a voting booth with the stark contrast of the two candidates in black and white on the piece of paper in front of them. Creating and reporting on polls is lazy journalism, in my opinion.

Expand full comment

Right! Anyone here watch "Yes Minister"? It's an old TV series, but sadly timely, about an incompetent PM, and his civil service staff, and it's still really hilarious (I recommend it!). Anyway, one episode has Sir Humphrey demonstrate that very thing to his under-secretary (or whatever), Bernard. Humphrey asks a series of questions, and gets a long string of "yes" answers; he then rephrases the *same* questions, and gets a long string of "no" answers, and poor Bernard is shocked and horrified by this example. Again: hilarious, but very timely, and scary.

Expand full comment

YES, I have indeed watched it--love Brit comedy. It was very funny.....most unfortunately however, our press is using polls for clicks (clicks=$$$$) and lazy journalism.

Expand full comment

I think we've watched the whole thing about 5 times in the last 25 years. It doesn't get old, nor less timely (sadly).

Expand full comment

Yes Minister is an excellent example of what I fear we are seeing. And I don't exempt the NYT from the problem.

Expand full comment

Indeed, the NYT and the WaPo are major perpetrators of this use of polls to make the presidential campaigns into a horse race. Polls and re-framing the campaigns into a "horse race" allows them (and, of course it isn't just the Times and the WaPo--it's all the media) to get ever more "clicks" which translates into more advert dollars, of course. It's a total disservice to the American populace--this election year is about so much more than a popularity contest between Trump and President Biden. We deserve so much more than polls and breathless announcements about who is leading who (which, 7 months out, is really quite ridiculous).

Expand full comment

It’s more than just getting clicks: polling gives newspapers filler to write about other than genuine news.

Expand full comment

Absolutely. Though it begs belief, it would be wonderful if FOX management would look into its collective heart and ask itself if being in thrall to a Putin of the future is really what it wants out of life and for their kids.

Expand full comment

I’ve been receiving text from an entity asking me to take a survey regarding California issues. I delete them. And I never answer my phone unless the number is in my contacts. Leave a message and I may return the call, or not.

Your suspicion of potential Russian trolls is valid.

Expand full comment

That entity asking for California polls is actually real. The questions are all artfully-designed push-questions (for both sides) of local/state issues.

Expand full comment

See earlier Yes, Minister comments

Expand full comment

As someone who was involved in politics and government, I always though Yes Minister was the best takedown of the system ever made. I knew a couple Sir Humphreys.

Expand full comment

Thank you, TC. I know you’re a bit more tuned into CA politics than I am. I’ll respond next time

Expand full comment

I report those kinds of calls from unknowns to my service provider, simply by forwarding the text and then in their response query, paste in the unknown caller's phone number. I don't answer texts nor calls from unknowns, bc if they're legit they'll leave a msg.

And, I don't care if the pollster is legit, I don't want to participate in a phone call/text msg. I will gladly do polls online when I can take my time formulating answers.

Expand full comment

Your point is valid and the challenge is the quality of the people being polled.

Expand full comment

These respondents are the unknown in the equation, yes. Good science quickly dismisses these thumbnail sketch, guesstimate conclusions to merely providing the pollsters with another payday. We Are Living In A Land Of Make Believe, Moody Blues.

Expand full comment

Simon Rosenberg is a person who uses polling and other factors. What no one ever talks about is the relationship today to what and how people vote in November

Expand full comment

I don't answer ANY calls that don't have a name attached, and even then, it has to be from someone who I know is not going to solicit money or ask for my opinion on something.

Expand full comment

Read the ancient little book, "How To Lie With Statistics". You will enjoy the optics in the art alone. Out of print. I have it here somewhere nearby.

Expand full comment

Or as Mark Twain put it, "there are lies, damned lies, and statistics!"

Expand full comment

I’m a bit of a methodology nerd so I found this article in the NYT about how they conducted their poll interesting. I think commentators here may be overstating how bad the methodology is. But the actual important point is polls are not news and we shouldn’t pay much attention to them given that it’s not going to change what we need to do. https://www.nytimes.com/article/times-siena-poll-methodology.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare&sgrp=c-cb

Expand full comment
Apr 17Liked by Robert B. Hubbell

Only in 2024 America, with a Supreme Court majority hand-picked by a wannabe dictator, would the statute that prosecuted insurrectionists who stormed the Capitol and brutalized law enforcement be considered vague on the word "otherwise." Yep! We are watching America be run by Alice's tea party.

Expand full comment

Nice allusion to Alice in Wonderland. Extra Credit.

Expand full comment

Back in my day as a court stenographer, I used to close my eyes while reporting to close out any visual distractions so as to allow my ears to hear better. It also allowed me to make a connection between the words being said and where my fingers needed to go. It was very effective. It did not dawn on me that others thought I was asleep until one day I had a lawyer confront me about it.

Anyway, just thought I'd put it out there that some of us think better with our eyes closed, though I don't think that's necessarily the case with tfg.

And thanks for the rest you covered today, Robert...all very important!

Expand full comment
author

Stenography is an incredible skill that requires immense concentration. I completely understand the need to resort to physical strategies to enhance concentration. Court reporters are under appreciated and frequently abused by inconsiderate counsel.

Apropos of court reporters, I once traveled to a deposition in another state. Local counsel hired the court reporter. As he began recording the testimony, he mouthed the words being said by the witness and twisted his head and neck, seemingly using his upper body's movement as a translation aid. It was really distracting--for about five minutes. Then it was just background hum, like the air conditioning. The transcript was perfect. (BTW, he repeated the head and neck twisting when reading back the transcript.)

Expand full comment

Thank you for your comment, Robert. Glad your experience had been mostly positive!

Expand full comment
Apr 17Liked by Robert B. Hubbell

I close my eyes when listening to an orchestra concert. It does help with experiencing just the music. I have to admit that sometimes it puts me in a trance-like state that could be called "dozing off..."

Expand full comment

Oh, yes, Carla, good point about music!

Expand full comment

I should specify that I do not close my eyes or doze while I am PLAYING in a concert. (I am In a fairly decent amateur orchestra in Brussels).

Expand full comment

I was a chosen juror in a criminal trial and had to listen to both sides of lawyers ask a list of questions to other prospective jurors that was mind numbing. I am sure I dozed off but I was not the defendent. Trump’s entire attitude in this courtroom is so off putting. Nothing but contempt for the entire proceding and the surety that he will be acquitted of these petty charges.

Expand full comment

I don't think that's what's happening. It looks to me, a licensed therapist, that he is medicated; in fact, he's over-medicated. He's highly anxious, and can't control himself.

Expand full comment
founding

Yes - unless you are a former (criminal) president running for re-election and wishing to present himself as a stable genius. (hahaha) You certainly do not close your eyes voluntarily. No ---- I believe this is a graphic reflection of his mental decline. Oh - and when has trump ever, ever had the capacity to be reflective (which Lynell probably is) If I had a wish, it would be that he dreams of Dad Fred - telling him he is a loser.

Expand full comment
Apr 17Liked by Robert B. Hubbell

As Chris Hayes put it Monday night, "When you're running on 'Sleepy Joe', you have one job..."

Expand full comment
author

Ha! good point!

Expand full comment

I have to wonder if maybe his defense lawyers had Trump's minders slip a little bit of sedative into his morning Diet Coke...just to get him to keep his big yap shut...although it wore off towards the end. The other thing is that if he would quit rage x-ing (or whatever the heck tweets are called these days) most of the night, he might be better able to stay awake during the day.

Expand full comment
Apr 17Liked by Robert B. Hubbell

It's been said many times that he needs to have his phone taken away between 9pm-6am. Good luck with that!

Expand full comment
founding

Or give him a fake phone not connected to anything but it LOOKS like it's working. Sort of like the toys we gave our toddlers BITD.

Expand full comment

That's a good idea.

Expand full comment
founding

Funny you should say that - my wife, also a psychiatrist, said she was sure that was what was happening. I disagreed - but, after 48 years, I'm realizing that she is right 95% of the time.

Expand full comment

I think he is medicated, too, but not by the lawyers. But whoever is treating him is over-medicating him.

Expand full comment
founding

Rage posting.

And you hit the post on the head.

Expand full comment

He’s in court way too early in the morning and thus, is missing his “executive time”.

Expand full comment

Derek, I think it's quite likely that Donnie already has nightmares on a regular basis of Father Trump accusing him of being a loser.

Expand full comment

Read my earlier comment, Lynell. I think he's medicated!

Expand full comment

@ Lynell....Thanks for the quick chuckle in your next to the last paragraph.

Expand full comment

You're welcome, T L. Whenever I can get a chuckle out of someone, it's a win for me!

Expand full comment
Apr 17Liked by Robert B. Hubbell

Her Bold Move is a great organization. I need help finding two other organizations. Is there a Florida group devoted to defeating the retention of the two Florida Supreme Court justices who voted in favor of keeping the 6 weeks abortion ban and opposed allowing the abortion protection vote to proceed? Similarly, is there an Arizona organization devoted to defeating the retention of the two Arizona Supreme Court justices who voted in favor of sustaining the 1864 Arizona statute that made performing or assisting in an abortion a felony?

Expand full comment

First expand our base. Democrats are down 1 mil in Florida voter registrations. Register Democrats -defeat retention.

https://www.fieldteam6.org/

Expand full comment

Len, not aware of any orgs in Florida(yet).Floridians Protecting Freedom is the campaign of orgs behind Amendment 4.I’ll keep you posted.Thanks for all you do !😎

https://floridiansprotectingfreedom.com/

As Daniel states, we need to expand our base! 🗳️

Expand full comment
Apr 17·edited Apr 17Liked by Robert B. Hubbell

This is bad karma for us too and further indictment of the mainstream Press. I certainly had to stop supporting the NYT and even though I could still do their crosswords without a subscription I do not choose to anymore. I am totally done with them. As the USA moves into the direction of Germany after the Weimar Republic thanks to one man, who cannot let go of running our country and continues to influence political outcomes via his proxies in Congress, and sending one of his former ambassadors around the world to whisper words of encouragement in authoritarian ears, with our current justice department and the press allowing this to happen, I do not know what can be done. The press is treating treasonous behavior as if it were a walk in the park. If dems can win in the face of widespread Republican vote fraud and manipulation, including gerrymandering, contesting legitimate voter registration, and any number of dirty, nasty, fascist tricks, we should think about making our press voter funded, and not privately owned. At least for the airwaves. We should follow the model that Germany has which is to have the residents of the country pay for the airwaves. https://youtu.be/jphacgBLrc0?si=V3txZUXlKT0uhthJ

For now I am sticking to local news, international press and some Substacks for news, information and intelligent thinking about the events of the day.

Expand full comment

I agree with your approach. I am using the Guardian for headlines and find that for factual elaboration, I can rely on HCR, Hubbell and Vance. To spice it up, there is always Reich, Hartmann and Kinzinger. For a positive wrap up of my reading I turn to Simon Rosenberg and sometimes Rather. And I am VERY grateful to have found this substack community - folks like you who add international perspectives as well as positive, constructive thinking.

(Footnote: Rubin is with WaPo which is competing with the NYTimes for ignominy. )

Expand full comment
Apr 17Liked by Robert B. Hubbell

Kareem Abdul-Jabber’s Substack is very thought provoking and includes some fun, heartwarming anecdotes as well.

Expand full comment

Good for Rubin for calling out MSM, including her own newspaper. I wonder if it will have any effect!

Expand full comment

Linda, Rubin works for the Washington Post, not NYT. (And I agree about the NYT crossword puzzles - I could still do them but won’t give NYT the time of day!)

Rubin is one of very few opinion writers who is consistent in supporting democratic ideals while continuing to parse out the autocratic ideology now preferred by many Republicans. And since she identifies as a conservative, it makes her opinion more credible in my view. She has even called out some of her fellow editorial writers at WAPO for their both siderism nonsense. Pretty rare these days.

The mainstream media seems to be in a death spiral and only concerned about clicks and making money. Thank heavens for Substack!

Expand full comment

Sheila, I agree with your assessment of Rubin. Pre-Trump, frankly, I found her to be wrongheaded in her views most of the time, though she has always been a good writer--in fact, as a supporter of Bush and other Rs, she helped get us to where we are today. Her conversion to what has become her very consistent positions in support of Biden and anti-MAGA, leaving the R party, is welcome because she is a very articulate dissecter of reality.

Expand full comment

Has she actually left the Republican party! Great!

Expand full comment

Thanks. That is probably why I still see her name, although I skip much of what they have to say too. Have not given them up yet, but might soon. Still doing their crossword puzzles alone or with my daughter. We tried the friends format today. We are adjusting to it. We usually do them on a Signal call with someone screensharing. It connects us even though we live in different cities. I am sickened by the lack of coverage and insightful commentary by mainstream press, so I appreciate Substacks and the Guardian, although they too have been ballyhooing about Biden's age. We should be glad that someone who has lived long enough to have insight and experience is willing to do the job.

Expand full comment

Substacks allow me to be better informed of current events than the Talking Heads on major outlets. Critiquing their bias in real time is a bit cathartic, but not satisfying enough

Just once I’d wish CBS would announce “We are Weimar”

Expand full comment

So many good comments in Linda Weide's posting and the replies, yet I have to give two cheers to Jennifer Rubin and WAPO and even the NYT. If they were to disappear tomorrow, we would have nothing but avowedly right wing national media. Would that make us better off? And who would be made happy by that conclusion? Trump and his allies. Both NYT and WAPO are feckless and cowardly at times to be sure, but Rubin has called out her fellow journalists, as Sheila B noted, and has certainly attacked Trump. The Guardian is great, but few outside of news junkies and diligent students like those on Today's Edition take the time to read even a portion of what is being said and read. Bill Alstrom's reading list is worthy of praise, but the average person has neither the time nor the experience to wade through half of what we all put out and what Bill manages to lasso.

There are a number of reasons why the reader and supporters of Robert Hubbell are (from the pictures from the Mississippi River trip) overwhelmingly white folks of a certain age. I am of that demographic too and retired, and feel no need to apologize for that fact. We have time and resources and inclination to engage in this work. Praise to all of you. I'm not saying the average 19 year old college student or high school grad is rushing to read the NYT, but the NYT and WAPO may get read and quoted by other media and maybe an "influencer" or two of that demographic may become alarmed and may begin to help in getting out the vote. If national news is left to WSJ and Murdoch and FOX and the Sinclair Broadcasting Group, we are in deep trouble. Let's not demand perfection in our allies. Let's take every dribble of help we can get in working toward the major changes we need.

And thanks, Dave Dalton, for your comment, "Just once I’d wish CBS would announce “We are Weimar.” But I am afraid the reference might not have the intended effect. I think many would think that the station has just gone to a commercial for some kind of sausage.

Expand full comment
founding

I agree with all you have said --- I still to to write responses daily to WaPo and the NYT --- if nothing else - it give me an opportunity to confront them. (just like Don Quixote --- )

Expand full comment
founding

Jennifer Rubin writes for The Washington Post.

Expand full comment

Thanks. I subscribe to that too and currently have not quit the subscription, but am considering it.

Expand full comment

Jennifer Rubin writes for WAPO, but it’s basically the same difference.

Expand full comment
founding
Apr 17Liked by Robert B. Hubbell

A couple of things. First, the obstruction case argued before the Supreme Court yesterday presents the strict-constructionist justices a test. Can they really rule that the word “otherwise” doesn’t mean otherwise? Robert and I, as old lawyers (I’m older than he is) can assure you that they can, but not honestly, in my opinion. Will they do so? Let’s hope integrity has not entirely left the building.

On another topic, some of Trump’s MAGA supporters think that Dementia is the name of his youngest daughter.

Expand full comment
author

I agree with you Jon. The structure of the statute includes "otherwise" in a seprate subsection that is IN ADDITION to the section on documents. If the justices ignore the "or otherwise" phrase, they will ignore an entire subsection of the statute. The addition of "or otherwise" must mean something--and the most reasonable interpretation is "by whatever means otherwise employed by the defendant."

Expand full comment

Well, the conservative justices did manage to ignore "A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State,...." when they ruled on the right to bear arms.

Expand full comment

Textualism is really pretextuaralism.

You can quote me.

Expand full comment
founding

I shall. Without attribution.

Expand full comment
founding

As I have said before, I do believe that this trial is probably going to be the most damaging for trump. He always wants to control others, appear strong and infallible and the prospect of sitting powerlessly for several weeks, with daily reporting about his sexual depravity, not to mention obvious lying, is, for once, going to exact a huge toll. (I would love to be a fly on the wall when he and Melania are in the same room at this time.) Hopefully, the judge will stand firm on his gag instructions - which is also anathema to the criminal. I think he looks terrible which is another sign. Dementia is characterized by more irrationality combined with more overt aggressiveness. His decline is going to get his usual unending free coverage - except this time it will probably be all bad. I feel bad for the mainstream media - for once they will be forced to confront a reality they spend so much time avoiding. (or not!)

Expand full comment
Apr 17Liked by Robert B. Hubbell

Regarding the aid bills MAGA Mike is putting up - he announced that all would be combined back into a single bill after passage, to be sent to the Senate for reconciliation.

Expand full comment
author

That is a very important detail I did not know. Thank you!

Expand full comment

There was one photo of Trump coming into the courtroom in which he looked truly horrible and miserable. Being on trial is definitely taking a toll on him. He's already very demented, as John Gartner has said

https://thinkbigpicture.substack.com/p/john-gartner-trump-cognitive-decline

and I suspect the trial will hasten his deterioration.

Expand full comment
Apr 17Liked by Robert B. Hubbell

I spent quite a few years in corporate product marketing and sales and polls and focus groups are very similar insofar as we tend to hear and believe whatever supports our current train of thought. Tune out for awhile and put your energy in getting people to VOTE.

Expand full comment
Apr 17Liked by Robert B. Hubbell

Four sides, four walls, the walls of Karma are closing in on the monster now! Four walls, four criminal indictments. Exponentially, they increase in both their mass, as well as their speed. We Democrats must totally understand , there is no common ground with the Gaetz/Jordan clan. None! Everything, large and small must be fought for with clear intentionality. I'm talking IF / THEN statements going in. If we support Ukraine, then they will not. Period. Not now, not ever. Thus , do the Stoics 'work-around'. It's how our forbears resolved their most vexing problems. Republicans are no less evil than our very unique export, Republican sponsored School Shooters. Yep, this proud Veteran is madder 'n' hell !

Expand full comment
Apr 17Liked by Robert B. Hubbell

Use this interactive map to see Clarence Thomas' CONFLICT OF INTEREST by not recusing the Jan 6th insurrection case that his wife Ginni attended:

https://thedemlabs.org/2024/04/16/clarence-thomas-conflict-of-interest-map-on-jan-6th-insurrection-that-his-wife-attended/

Track the timeline, indictments, payments, and people involved in Trump's NY Election Interference case.

https://thedemlabs.org/2024/04/15/trump-ny-fraud-trial-newstracs/

Expand full comment
Apr 17Liked by Robert B. Hubbell

Whether its presentation of the miscellaneous poll results, its headline writing, and the seeming misguided effort at "fair and balanced reporting," I have not been able to fully understand what the NYT and, to a slighlty lesser degree, the WAPO, are doing. Robert suggested that it is some combination of business considerations and editorial bias. I'm not sure about either of those--I suppose more people may click on stories about the horserace or that ignore Trump and MAGA faults and play up Biden and Democrat ones but is that really true of people prone to read the Times? MAGA diehards are not reading the Times. And I am not sure that I believe that Times leadership on either the business or editorial sides favors Trump or Republicans, I have come to think that their coverage may have more to do with playing it safe just in case Trump and the MAGAs do prevail--not to get on the enemies list, which could lead to business setbacks or even persecutions. Also, continuing to be able to get access to Rs for their work, which they might not be able to do if perceived as overtly hostile. There has to be one or more reasons for their continued malfeasance in the face of a lot of criticism from folks who would normally be their readers and supporters.

Expand full comment
Apr 17Liked by Robert B. Hubbell

In a galaxy far, far away… “it does not help the House Republicans advance our agenda, which is in the best interest of the American people here — a secure border, sound governance – and it’s not helpful to the unity that we have in the body.”

Expand full comment
Apr 17Liked by Robert B. Hubbell

Thank you Robert. I needed your inspiration today.

Expand full comment
founding

The SCOTUS discussion of the Jan 6 interpretations really hit me in the head. Thank you for assuaging that but it will remain. Unless their goal is how to let off the teasonous actions of that day I am baffled that there can be any response to that riot. What if the goal to kill Pence had been met? Just a protest?

Expand full comment