Two comments on your welcome coverage of events in Brazil. First, there is ample evidence of communications between Bolsonaro's sons, the Trump boys (jr. and Eric), Steve Bannon and Jason Miller, at least in the lead-up to the election. There is also sufficient home-grown misinformation and absurdity among die-hard bolsonaristas, many among them retired military and police, to have hatched this in-vain and banal rampage on their own. For an exceptionally clear analysis, I recommend you listen to yesterday's interview with Brazilian sociologist Bernardo Sorj on Buz Eisenberg's podcast Afternoon Buz WHPM 101.5 https://whmp.com/podcasts/shows/the-afternoon-buzz/
Second, an important postscript lesson should run from Brasil to the US. Silence from Bolsonaro and the military and complicity among active on-duty police notwithstanding, the immediate and broad-based repudiation of the simultaneous acts of terror on the three branches of government by public officials, the press, media influencers and civil society speak volumes. Within a day, as part of damage assessment and control, Lula and the National Association of Governors convened a meeting in a quickly restored room in the Presidential palace where all 27 governors, including the stand-in for Brasilia's suspended governor, joined Lula, cabinet members (Justice and Institutional Oversight), the President of the Supreme Court Rosa Weber, the National Prosecutor, the head of the National Association of Mayors and congressional leaders who momentarily set aside their striking political difference in an unambiguous show of solidarity for democracy and in recognition of Lula's presidency. In a moving symbolic afterward, the entire group -arms linked- were led by Lula and Justice Weber across the plaza to witness the especially vehement destruction to the Supreme Court and pledge their support for the rule of law. The alacrity with which the Ministry of Justice is responding reinforces Lula's promise that perpetrators at every level will be brought to justice and that this will never occur again.
In assessing this telling difference in response tone and time in Brazil and the US, we mustn't lose sight of the fact that Brazilians are largely united in support of democratic norms having experienced the hard facts of decades of military dictatorship while we Americans are mired in a dysfunctional and dangerous divide between those who are entranced by an amplified autocratic vision and those of us near traumatized by the threat of it.
Shep, thanks so much for your in-depth analysis. As I have noted, I have been reluctant to say much because I feel out of my depth. With your permission, I may quote part of your comment here in tonight's newsletter. It is good to see that Brazil's political leaders have unified in response to the events.
Shep, I write to note how deeply grateful I am to learn about the stark contrast between the two countries and will do all I can to educate more of us about these “telling differences[s]”that demand we rethink the current response in the States to 1/6 and beyond. Again, my sincere thanks for your highly pertinent post.
It does seem like a case of copy cat crime, does it not? Instead of hoping the US would set an example for Brazil and the world, however, I have been hoping the US and the world would take aspects of Brazil's response as a model.
There is one big difference between the two insurrections that should be acknowledged. Lula was already acting President and Bolsonaro gone. Trump was still in the White House, physically present, and would be for some time. Biden did not have the power to call up reinforcements. Perhaps we allow our defeated leaders too much power and to linger too long when we should limit them to processes necessary to hand over the reins (which Trump did not attempt).
Things are moving swiftly here. As reported by Folha de São Paulo, 100 firms associated with agro business in Mato Grosso do Sul and Santa Catarina States that financed the bus loads of insurrectionists to Brasilia have had their assets frozen pending investigation. — money held in anticipation of fines, to pay for damages and upkeep of 1200 detainees. And Bolsonaro, who’s approval rating has fallen from 40-20 points since the event, says he will return to Brazil “sooner than planned”, at urging of his sons who says it’s best to return of his own free will rather than under extradition and to “rebuild the opposition before the current government destroys it”.
This is impressive news. Thank you, Shep! Although I hope if former President "The Covid vaccine could turn people into crocodiles" Bolsonaro does deport himself back to Brazil, the "opposition" his sons urge him to rebuild decides it's not worth being rounded up by law enforcement on the spot while their "fearless" leader puts his head down and races to hide among his fellow fascists in Florida. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-61216250
My head is spinning! Qevin’s quest to be king will end badly for him, I believe. His over-inflated ego gets in the way of him getting anything done. Biden should be able to reign over their cockamamie schemes to once again, give their bosses ( Kochs, Mercersi, Leo, etc.) another raise. Certainly hope he is able to veto the crap out of just about everything they do so that some of the R’s come to the Dems, begging for help.
I too, am very frustrated with Garland, especially when you see how quickly Lula’s security guards were able to bring Bolsonaro’s supporters to a screeching halt. They arrested at least 1000 people. Bolsonaro has been hiding out in Orlando for 2 months. He knew this would happen because Bannon set everything up. Bolsonaro must be kicked out of the US as soon as his “abdominal pains” go away. Garland must stop Bannon in his tracks....NOW! I mean, how many times does it take for this criminal to commit acts of violence before he’s thrown into the slammer?
I'm going to continue to remind people that "when you strike the king, you must kill him." The evidence against Trump has to be stronger than strong, more certain than certain. Even with the best evidence possible, one Trumper sneaking onto the jury could hang it. If he was indicted and tried - and conspiracy trials are traditionally "iffy" with the standard of proof necessary for conviction - and got off, he would be strong enough to be irresistible.
I''m fine with making things as absolutely certain as possible. The last thing we want is that traitor getting off.
I disagree. The standard for prosecuting Trump should be the standard for prosecuting any defendant. All litigation is uncertain and if fear of a Trump holdout on the jury is enough to dissuade us from prosecuting Trump, then all presidents have immunity. All litigation is uncertain, even when you think you have a good case. Here, delay will not make the case stronger; it will make it weaker. See, e.g., the discovery of two documents at Biden's vice presidential library.
Here is my least favorite example of litigation uncertainty. I tried a case in Florida. At the end, my opponent--not his lawyers, but my opponent--came up to me and said, "Congratulations! You were magnificent." I took that as a good sign. When the judgment was issued, I lost on every claim as badly as possible. That happens sometimes and you just have to accept it as part of the inherent risk.
"The standard for prosecuting Trump should be the standard for prosecuting any defendant". I agree with this because it is the right principle and because despite the fact nothing is 100% certain, a win against Trump is likely.
I think we already have a spectacle. The J6 hearings were a spectacle, and a good thing. Every time Trump speaks or tweets it's a spectacle, and a bad thing.
As to giving them a martyr, they already have martyrs, with Trump having proclaimed himself the biggest in history with every investigation of him as a "witch hunt". Being martyrs is a specialty of the right wing. In fact MAGA voters identify as "great patriots who have been badly & unfairly treated for so long".
Democrats have a long history of holding off on strong actions - justified actions - because if we do, the Republicans will just do it to us when they are in office. Guess what? Sparing Republicans does nothing but spare Republicans to fight again another day. They do whatever they want without precedence, without the slightest hesitation from any feeling of fair play, any guilt over moral or ethical concerns, or any previous traditions of acceptable behavior. Democrats aren't lowering themselves to Republicans' level by refusing to allow fear of retaliation and a measly hope of being spared in the future to prevent strong acts of justice.
I understand needing to proceed carefully and fully but holding nothing back so as to "kill the king" in the original TC comment, but yes, do strike the killing blow and stop just stiff fingering him in the chest. This one needs to be out of the way, not just wounded and growing more spiteful on the benches.
If we have one jury member whose mind was already locked down on a jury that's an oversight and poor performance during jury selection, but (like with the J6 committee) the nation will be watching and the nation will likewise judge.
I agree with TC on this one. This situation with Trump is incendiary for so many reasons. Mostly right now is the question: Do we really want to prosecute a former President while moving into an election year? Right now he is more or less contained. A public spectacle would vault him back into national prominence.
Also and seemingly related is this: If going by the "miraculous" discovery of classified documents in Biden's Library is any indication this promises to be an exceptionally nasty Presidential election cycle. And we can now see how the Republicans are going to play it. We nor Garland cannot afford one single misstep. We are walking a Democracy tightrope.
We’ve been walking a “Democracy tightrope” since tfg won in 2016 and took office in January, 2017! The high wire act is/ has gotten old, more than old……
TFG could have been indicted and convicted already for the documents held at Maralago and his subsequent obstruction related to those docs. A trial for the Maralago docs would have (and would) only take two or three days.
If the DOJ indicts tfg for anything related to Jan 6th, the 2024 elections will be finished, decided, and done LONG BEFORE any trial of tfg for Jan 6 starts.
Seriously! How much longer should we walk this tightrope?!!
If we let that fear control our actions, we have just granted Trump immunity. The only thing worse than indicting Trump and possibly losing is not indicting Trump and removing all doubt that he will walk free.
Sometimes it appears no charges are being brought by the DOJ out of fear they will win/ get a conviction of tfg! Fear that if convicted his devout followers will rise up and start a civil war!
It constantly feels like we’re in a damned if we do damned if we don’t situation when it comes to him
No arguments here. But I'm glad that Michigan AG Dana Nessel is changing her mind about leaving the Michigan fake electors to be investigated by the DOJ. She thinks the DOJ is taking too long. If she prosecutes Michigan's fake electors and wins, they can never be pardoned by any American president. And my understanding is that they can still be federally prosecuted if the DOJ decides to do so. https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/06/politics/michigan-fake-electors-attorney-general-dana-nessel-investigation/index.html
Thank you Robert Hubbell and TCinLA and additional readers for the deep analysis today. A lot of readings ahead. The reminder about one Trumper sneaking onto a jury is frightening but correct and important to try to remember, even when of course one would want him convicted.
Every now and then I remember a column by Greg Olear that said Trump has been given immunity from prosecution because he has long been an informant for organized crime, including the international crimes of oligarchs. Then, I recalled how Trump boasted that he could shoot somebody in public and get away with it. Not that he is a good guy, rather he swims with the sharks. Maybe it's an outrageous theory, but then again, it could explain it all.
I had never heard of the Greg Olear column you referred to, so I looked it up. It's shocking, but given what we do know, it's believable. Has anyone ever offered any reasons not to believe what is in Olear's article?
There were a few other articles listed at the end of the Trump/CI article. The interview with the comic who worked at the Celebrity Apprentice was also an eye opener. Again, is there any push back in public to the allegations of Trump's drug abuse? https://gregolear.substack.com/p/full-disclosure-an-interview-with
I'd like to know if this is all unsubstantiated gossip and if not, why it hasn't been picked up by any media outlets.
Now you know as much as I do from your research. I imagine there would be hell to pay for a broader release without substantial proof, one way or the other. I think it is wiser to suspend judgement at this point, and we may never know the truth since international ramifications would be horrific. But as I said, it has stuck in the back of my mind whenever the delay of DOJ resurfaces. As for substance abuse, I believe its true that DJT uses prescription meds, even currently, but he does not use alcohol.
I didn't think you had the answers, but I was hoping someone else on this comment section might know something.
There is a difference between using prescription medications and abusing them. Not sure which he does. All I've ever heard is how he never touches alcohol.
I appreciate your comment about the international ramifications if the story were true and was widely reported. But I can't say right now that I think it's better for America or the world that any truth to that story should be hidden, if it causes DOJ to delay and ultimately resist or deliberately fail at a prosecution. The possibility of a successful fascist coup in America in the future because Trump and his closest supporters are not prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law by "unfettered" DOJ attorneys is just unthinkable.
Yes. Great article and I do feel like it's both credible and explains a great deal about Trump and his family. His own lawyer Cohen said he uses mob speak when he's letting you know what he wants done - never actually spelling it out in an undeniable way. He's not especially bright but it's easy to learn things like that when you are immersed from the cradle (as was Jared as well).
The insane reactions to life-saving vaccines are beyond any reason or logic. I simply cannot wrap my head around the illogical bloviating on this subject. It’s like Nietzsche said “In individuals, insanity is rare; but in groups, parties, nations, and epochs, it is the rule.”
I don't get it either. But caution genes run in my family. We've all had all six vaxes, and we all take ample vitamin D, without which, the immune system doesn't function on all four cylinders.
Unfortunately, docs of a certain age were taught that it's easy to get a toxic dose of D. It's actually quite hard to get a toxic dose. How much different people need depends on their individual physiology. I take 5000 IU every other day, four times a week--20,000/a week--which is cheaper than taking 3000/day (21,000/week). 2000/day is often sufficient for small, slender people, and some need as much as 5000, 6000, or 10,000 every day (the latter a friend of mine for osteopenia). Fauci takes 6000 a day. People with MS are given as much as 20,000/day, which reduces symptoms and slow progression, and I sure wish I'd known about that when my mother was alive.
It does take around 6 weeks to get the blood level to where you want it--40-60 ng/ml. My own blood level is around 55 ng/ml, both in summer, when I don't take any, but run shirtless in the sun just about every day, and it winter, when I'm taking my 20k/week. It's an easy test to get from your MD.
I started taking it in '04. Until then, I had a bunch of things I did whenever I started to get a cold, to try to stop it in its tracks or mitigate the symptoms. About a year and a half after starting to take D I realized I hadn't done my cold routine since before I'd started taking D, and it's remained that way. I've done it maybe twice since then, instead of several times a year. Have hardly had any flu, either.
There are a number of studies suggesting that people with ample D have milder covid when they get it.
It reminds me of the snake handling religion in the good ol' Southern states. If you don't get bitten it is proof of God's favor. If you do get bitten, well, C'est la vie!
Rattlesnakes don't want to bite you. They have the rattle because all that venom is expensive. There is actually an old African American folktale about How the Snake Got his Rattle, which demonstrates a thorough understanding of this. After the snake starts killing other animals, which happens after God gives him the poison, ostensibly to keep the other animals from stepping on him, a couple of the animals go to God to ask him to do something about the problem. (I have it in a book of folktales.) It's also very funny, with the God character smoking his cigars, which Mrs. God hates.
I understand that Steve Bannon is appealing his conviction & remains out of prison while this is being processed, but meanwhile he is creating havoc. I think that the world (especially Brasil) would benefit if he were behind bars serving his sentence for his contempt for our laws. Trump corruptly pardoned him once. Time for him to pay the piper.
I have to say that the news of the celebratory moron Diamond, a Trumpscum who publickly celebrated ignorance and mendacity, would have me putting a nice bottle of champagne on ice with which to celebrate her decision to Make America Great Again by permanently departing, if i still had nice bottles of champagne available to put on ice and still drank them.
As a doctor I know told me three years ago this month when the first news of the virus started coming out, a pandemic is Evolution's IQ test - are you intelligent enough to take this information and modify you behavior in such a way as to maximize your likelihood of survival? It's pass/fail. Recent news is that vaccination rates now track with political affiliation, with a majority of Democrats being vaccinated and a majority of Republicans being unvaccinated, and that death rates since the introduction of the vaccines have also tracked with political affiliation, with the greatest number of deaths being among Republicans in red states. See? Evolution is right, and with the reintroduction of Darwinian evolution - survival of the fittest - we should see more Homo Sapiens and fewer Homo Saps. In fact, there is an argument made that the November election results were affected by the increased die-off of the old white boomer Republicans too stupid to get vaccinated.
I guess there is always a "silver lining". May they pass quietly. But here is the thing. Many of these idiots won't die from the newest Covid. They will be disabled. Incapable of working and contributing to society's coffers. Which in a very twisted way, makes them the ultimate irony in this battle between us and them. Maybe we should start calling them the "Covid Queens".
After dodging Covid for almost three years, my wife and I were slammed with it on Christmas. We are fully boosted and after a week of significant agony, we seem better. And this is where I must applaud science and the "state".
On the Christmas weekend, needless to say, the doctors office was closed. But from their website I was directed to a State of Massachusetts website. Within five minutes, I was on a video call with a friendly, smart nurse practitioner. She asked a few questions and then explained that she was prescribing Paxlovid and that my pharmacy would have it ready within an hour. 48 hours later we were on the road to recovery. So grateful!
And that my friends, is how the "gubmint" helps its citizens and sometimes saves lives. Take that Ronnie Raygun - and stick it where the sun don't shine.
"Many of these idiots won't die from the newest Covid. They will be disabled. Incapable of working and contributing to society's coffers. Which in a very twisted way, makes them the ultimate irony..." Hmmm, never thought of it that way. The sadder realities are the folks who were vaccinated, got covid before the boosters, and are now long haulers. My husband and I have managed to avoid covid since the get-go, vaxing, boosting, masking, along with quite a number of friends, but it's still a nag in the back of my psyche. VERY happy to hear of your success and well-being! Long live state/county departments of health and their websites!
COVID cases are up in my area--eastern Mass--and I hate having to wear the damn masks again, but I would hate more to get COVID. (I don't bother with the masks outside unless I'm in a genuine crowd.)
I'm sorry to hear you suffered and glad to hear you recovered.
Many people who get covid and survive may not only be left physically disabled, but may be left with brain damage that not only effects their ability to focus (the now famous post covid fog) but may also affect their ability to process information logically and affect their ability to control their emotions, especially aggressiveness. If you poke around on paywall free sites for original research (like Oxford Press) you can probably find some of that since I can't pull a reference off the top of my head. I do think it has contributed in some way to the strangely hair trigger nature of our public discourse. Of course, one would expect those after effects would be found in the highest numbers among anti-vaxers.
Great story Bill and even better is the news that you and your wife have recovered. Not the merriest of Christmases, but certainly a great start to the new year.
Except the R's in power all had the vaccine. Some lied, many lied. But they are protected to that degree of the vax. Masking no. That would be harder to lie about.
As I read the bit from Today’s Edition extrapolating from the 14th Amendment an interpretation that would grant the Presidency “the authority to continue to pay pre-existing debt even if Congress does not ‘raise the debt ceiling,’” admittedly, I feel a combination of relief and uneasiness. Allow me to explain.
I imagine as one delegitimates the Legislative branch one simultaneously strengthens the Executive. Because the Executive presently is Joe Biden, he’s not going to take advantage of that, he’s not going to abuse it. I imagine, instead, he’ll likely regretfully issue a few executive orders as permitted and warranted.
However, if the table is set so that people don’t think the Legislative branch can work—that the Legislature already is broken—and we get a corrupt president, one who’s not hesitant to do all kinds of things, then we really are entering a kind of democratic breakdown situation. Hence, when I think about the long game of what could transpire in the radical-right House over the next 2 years, that’s partly what I worry about.
Those are legitimate concerns. But as the second article I cited explains, Biden will be in a situation where he has competing legitimate demands: One to spend money and service debt lawfully authorized and the other not to increase the debt.
There are many ways to solve t his dilemma. Not doing anything is a failure to observe the command of the 14th amendment. Selectively paying some debts is the worst option because it allows the president to usurp the legislative function in deciding which programs to fund and which debtors to pay. The best option is for the president to fund all programs and pay all debts as commanded by the 14th amendment.
Robert, I expect, from your reply, that I did not adequately convey the intent of my comment. Though I started with your reference to the debt ceiling, my main concern, since observing McCarthy giving away the House so he could take the Speakership, involved the chaos I imagined would result followed by an increasing transfer of power to the executive that, under different leadership, could leave the republic in grave danger.
Barbara, My thanks for your affirming reply. As for pondering feasible consequences further down the road, I have found it’s every bit as critical to try and connect the dots as one looks forward as it is to learn from the past.
The kicker in this conversation is that the President has no money of his own to pay the bills with. Everything available to the Executive branch has to be appropriated by the Congress based on legislation that, Constitutionally, must originate in the House. The 212 Democrats who stood firmly with Mr. Jeffries need to start building some bridges to at least 6 of the 18 Republicans who were elected from districts that Biden won in the last election. It may help that David Valadao, who is one of them, voted to impeach the traitor Trump.
I think the argument is that the Constitution gives Biden the power to issue debt in extraordinary circumstances to honor existing obligations authorized by Congress.
That's what I understood too, but it will be, at best, interesting to see if that holds up in practice. I'd like to believe it but it seems quite a concatenation of concepts and there will be a lot of naysayers.
Robert, While your explanation is not addressed to me, I believe you’re right and am most grateful, let alone relieved, for the clarification. That said, were you to review my response to your initial reply to me, you would note that the point of my comment at the start of this thread was misunderstood.
David, I write because, while there will be more votes down the road, to date, despite efforts by House Dems to extend an open hand to reasonable members across the aisle, barring Andrew Garbarino, no seemingly moderate establishment House Republican has been willing to break ranks and defy Party leadership. Additionally, no number of phone calls from highly motivated voters could convince them to put country before party.
I further would note our list included David Valadao and Dan Newhouse, both of whom voted for Trump’s Second Impeachment and held their seats. Others on our list, who had signaled a willingness to work with like-minded people across the aisle, included: Brian Fitzpatrick, Mike Carey, John Curtis, Mike Gallagher, Ashley Hinson, David Joyce, Nicole Maliotakis, Blake Moore, and Ken Calvert. As stated, despite the despicable deals that were cut to get McCarthy the gavel, only 1 from the list, Andrew Garbarino, voted against the House rules package.
Still, given there will be more votes, I expect none of us is prepared to relent.
Your suspicion is correct, at least as far as I'm concerned. My rep, Ann Wagner, is a placeholder who just follows orders but I'm getting to know her office staff well.
I'm sure there are others Barbara. The MO GOP legislators were concerned enough about her to redraw her district lines twice before the last election. Maybe one day she'll listen.
It sounds though, as explained in the article, like the ability to proceed without the legislative body is very clearly limited to servicing the national debt. Not a lot of play there or opportunity to line one's pockets, favor friends, and so on.
Not to mention we just finished having a president who played fast and loose with bypassing legitimate processes as much as possible. As pessimistic and cynical as I can sometimes be, we did just go through that particular stress test.
I do wish however that Biden would assign a committee to examine all the ways Trump and members of his administration side stepped the intent of our laws and government structure and recommend steps to close those gaps. We would all sleep sounder and worry less.
Yehawes, I write because, despite Trump’s loss, I’d argue that the republic remains in grave danger while the third-highest ranking office in the country (next after the Vice-president) is occupied by someone who owes his position to organized white Christian nationalists. Hence, the justification for partnering with communities like this one to work for more democracy (e.g., federal voter protections, D.C./ Puerto Rican statehood, big money out of politics, and the like).
As a final point, I would note that my reply to Dave Conant, who is part of this thread, also was intended for you.
And even the ability to service the debt is based on rolling over earlier issues into more current ones. The new bond issues are contingent on Congressional approval of an increased debt ceiling.
The big difference between Biden and Trump regarding classified information is you kinda expect Trump to act and behave the way he did and break the law and you expect Biden to be a straight shooter and obey the law and know he made an honest mistake regardless of what Republicans say. What is frustrating to me is there are a lot of investigations of Trump in Georgia, New York, DC and California and people like Bannon, Eastman Giuliani and Meadows are still walking around and making all kinds of noise. What has to happen is these folks need to be indicted and the domestic terrorists in the House must testify which will take the focus away from the bogus “ investigations “ and focus on real indictments. It’s the only way to shut these folks up.
This is the first newsletter from you where I was too exhausted to go on after three paragraphs. Really. I just finished a morning meditation on breathing, made a cup of tea and sat down again to read. I just can't do it. I can't follow the trail of evil. "End IRS funding", wrap up existing Social Security (I already paid for mine), stop funding Ukraine. I don't know where to put my brain but I think it is in a garden catalogue.
That's not good and I urge you to take a break. Not much will change in the next several months. Everyone deserves time to recharge and rest. Take some time off.
You could have used my name in today's call...permanent permission. just can't listen to the hate and manipulation right now....but after the Founding Members Call, I listened to Hakeem Jefferies's acceptance speech. OMG. That is leadership. Keep talking, Mr. Jefferies, we need to hear you. Get on all the airwaves....or whatever they are called.
Well, this is traditionally the time of year to order seeds and day dream over plants and fantasize about wee green sprouts and bodacious color. May you positively inhale spiritual renewal off the glossy pages of plantly promise!
I have a tendency to over-simplify. In this case I generalize and say the right wing thugs will obstruct anything the Dems have approved. So much for their administrative skills and intelligence. That is as far as they can think. Then I meditate and have some tea.
Regarding Garland……if his justice department had moved more quickly, not on a Trump indictment but on investigations and indictments of those in congress who worked to support the insurrection and the fraudulent electors, we might not be in this situation. Many of them would have either been convicted, removed from office, or exposed to their constituents as criminals.
Two things are needed to raise or remove the debt ceiling:
1. 218 votes in the House. I think those votes are probably there -- there must be at least 5 Republican representatives who do not want to throw the financial system into freefall. The harder part...
2. An opportunity for those 218 people to vote. Normally a measure can come to the floor of the House only with approval of the Rules Committee, controlled by the Speaker. But there are other, more difficult routes--e.g. a discharge petition, signed by at least 218 members.
What we can do is confront Republican members in their districts when the measure comes up, demanding that they lift the debt ceiling for the sake of the national economy.
A discharge petition - about which I'm completely ignorant. However, last night Lawrence O'Donnell said we're all going to learn about discharge petition very soon. So, get busy 218 members, I'm anxious to learn!
The legislation has to be written first and that probably won't happen until it's much closer to the deadline. Proactively resolving the problem is totally foreign to Congress any more and would eliminate a lot of opportunities for fundraising and clickbaiting.
I would imagine that House Democrats are already putting together legislation for a discharge petition and to raise the debt ceiling. The new House Minority leaders seem to me to be unlikely to wait until the last minute.
It is perhaps presumptuous to disagree with the properly respected Ms. Applebaum, but she is wrong on one critical point - "after all, the American version already did". The American version has not failed and, as you, TC, Barbara Jo, Marlene and a number of other commenters have noted, until and unless the defeated former president and his immediate cohort of supporters and enablers are indicted, convicted and imprisoned, it will not have failed, the success of the insurrection will only have been postponed.
I'll not rehash the whole Social Security and Medicare conversation because it was well covered and commented on yesterday, but the House Republican Caucus has now teed up the ball for the Democrats who, if they chose to do so, could take advantage of a long, straight fairway lined by a huge crowd of Americans who would cheer their drive to stabilize the Trust Funds, institutionalize the benefit and COLA structure, and remove this topic from the political conversation for at least the next 10 years or until a revanchist Republican administration was voted into power. This is a remarkable Mulligan in politics and one hopes that, between Messrs. Jeffries, Schumer and Biden and with the support of the rightly esteemed former Speaker, they won't whiff this time.
This morning I broke a rule and decided to see what Hugh Hewitt (a Washington Post GOP "journalist" who is close enough to MAGA that I generally don't read what he has to say) had to say about McCarthy. He was against the group led by our new Speaker's antagonists and was praising McCarthy for all that he will accomplish now that he has outwitted Gaetz & Group and become victorious. To read Hewitt, there are deniers and there are deniers. Once again, I am proved to be baffled by the nuances on the side of those who publicly sought to overturn our government. Yesterday I asked someone who listens to Fox in order to translate their thinking to me (I confess I need a translator) tried to answer my question, "what liberties are they (like my sister) saying the country will lose with the Biden side," and the answer (which I can't articulate) is, I am told, "too complicated" for words. Given what I view as the ignorance and stupidity of that crowd, I believe that it is, indeed, too complicated for words. (Excuse my show of disgust.)
They don't feel the need to explain. They can't. Because there is no there there. There is only a blinding faith that Democrats are evil and will bring us Marxism and millions of immigrants running through the streets stealing our jobs and our daughters.
They can't reason through a problem objectively. Like the fact that the birth rate in the US is currently 1.65 and shrinking. That means there won't be enough workers to support the safety nets of Social Security and Medicare. So there you have it. The answer is at our "open border" but the hate for the other promoted by idiots like Hewitt blinds them. For folks who decide to embrace lie after lie based on fear and hate - there is no hope. They must be marginalized and defeated at the polls.
I believe it was Ben Shapiro who said that if you're explaining you're losing. It's about tribal identity and instinct and emotion and not about thinking with words.
Terrific letter as always. A question: if one house member can require a no confidence vote on McCarthy, could that be a democrat? And if so could democrats find 5 moderate republicans to vote McCarthy out if and when moderate republicans are truly shamed by what the far right is up to?
Wow, really? Why would Repubs allow that? Seems almost too good to be true in terms of leverage. I would think the motion to vacate would be restricted to the majority... Or can McCarthy restrict motions being brought to the floor...Anyway if true, it gives Democrats something to work with.
True, but of course since the Rs are going to be obstructionist the goal will be for the Ds to be clear about having actual policy goals when they obstruct. One of the goals of the Freedom Caucus is to bring down democracy and as soon as the Speaker's chair is vacated and the House is back to interminable voting that goal is partially accomplished.
Of course, there are worse things than the House unable to proceed, and that's a House ruled by MTG proceeding as advertised. It's a tool I hope the Ds use after attempts to work with more sane if not exactly moderate Rs and a tool I hope to see the Rs use first or most frequently.
Agreed. A tool to use when the Dems have 5 or 6 moderate repubs ready to elect a mutually agreed upon replacement for McCarthy and have the votes counted and ready.
Robert: as an astute observer of the political scene, you have developed a real talent in your ability to suss out the hidden aspects of proposed Republican legislation. That will be quite a gift to those of us who have been loyal readers of this newsletter. Keep up the good work.
I don't understand. Didn't Bannon get time for resisting a subpoena? Did he ever go to jail? Or is he stalling with endless appeals? He should be arrested for excessive smugness alone. Bannon and the whole top MAGA team are dangerous to the entire world.
Two comments on your welcome coverage of events in Brazil. First, there is ample evidence of communications between Bolsonaro's sons, the Trump boys (jr. and Eric), Steve Bannon and Jason Miller, at least in the lead-up to the election. There is also sufficient home-grown misinformation and absurdity among die-hard bolsonaristas, many among them retired military and police, to have hatched this in-vain and banal rampage on their own. For an exceptionally clear analysis, I recommend you listen to yesterday's interview with Brazilian sociologist Bernardo Sorj on Buz Eisenberg's podcast Afternoon Buz WHPM 101.5 https://whmp.com/podcasts/shows/the-afternoon-buzz/
Second, an important postscript lesson should run from Brasil to the US. Silence from Bolsonaro and the military and complicity among active on-duty police notwithstanding, the immediate and broad-based repudiation of the simultaneous acts of terror on the three branches of government by public officials, the press, media influencers and civil society speak volumes. Within a day, as part of damage assessment and control, Lula and the National Association of Governors convened a meeting in a quickly restored room in the Presidential palace where all 27 governors, including the stand-in for Brasilia's suspended governor, joined Lula, cabinet members (Justice and Institutional Oversight), the President of the Supreme Court Rosa Weber, the National Prosecutor, the head of the National Association of Mayors and congressional leaders who momentarily set aside their striking political difference in an unambiguous show of solidarity for democracy and in recognition of Lula's presidency. In a moving symbolic afterward, the entire group -arms linked- were led by Lula and Justice Weber across the plaza to witness the especially vehement destruction to the Supreme Court and pledge their support for the rule of law. The alacrity with which the Ministry of Justice is responding reinforces Lula's promise that perpetrators at every level will be brought to justice and that this will never occur again.
In assessing this telling difference in response tone and time in Brazil and the US, we mustn't lose sight of the fact that Brazilians are largely united in support of democratic norms having experienced the hard facts of decades of military dictatorship while we Americans are mired in a dysfunctional and dangerous divide between those who are entranced by an amplified autocratic vision and those of us near traumatized by the threat of it.
Shepard Forman, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Shep, thanks so much for your in-depth analysis. As I have noted, I have been reluctant to say much because I feel out of my depth. With your permission, I may quote part of your comment here in tonight's newsletter. It is good to see that Brazil's political leaders have unified in response to the events.
Thanks again, and stay strong!
Shep, I write to note how deeply grateful I am to learn about the stark contrast between the two countries and will do all I can to educate more of us about these “telling differences[s]”that demand we rethink the current response in the States to 1/6 and beyond. Again, my sincere thanks for your highly pertinent post.
It does seem like a case of copy cat crime, does it not? Instead of hoping the US would set an example for Brazil and the world, however, I have been hoping the US and the world would take aspects of Brazil's response as a model.
There is one big difference between the two insurrections that should be acknowledged. Lula was already acting President and Bolsonaro gone. Trump was still in the White House, physically present, and would be for some time. Biden did not have the power to call up reinforcements. Perhaps we allow our defeated leaders too much power and to linger too long when we should limit them to processes necessary to hand over the reins (which Trump did not attempt).
Things are moving swiftly here. As reported by Folha de São Paulo, 100 firms associated with agro business in Mato Grosso do Sul and Santa Catarina States that financed the bus loads of insurrectionists to Brasilia have had their assets frozen pending investigation. — money held in anticipation of fines, to pay for damages and upkeep of 1200 detainees. And Bolsonaro, who’s approval rating has fallen from 40-20 points since the event, says he will return to Brazil “sooner than planned”, at urging of his sons who says it’s best to return of his own free will rather than under extradition and to “rebuild the opposition before the current government destroys it”.
Sent from my iPhone
On Jan 10, 2023, at 4:29 PM, Shep <shepardforman@gmail.com> wrote:
This is impressive news. Thank you, Shep! Although I hope if former President "The Covid vaccine could turn people into crocodiles" Bolsonaro does deport himself back to Brazil, the "opposition" his sons urge him to rebuild decides it's not worth being rounded up by law enforcement on the spot while their "fearless" leader puts his head down and races to hide among his fellow fascists in Florida. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-61216250
My head is spinning! Qevin’s quest to be king will end badly for him, I believe. His over-inflated ego gets in the way of him getting anything done. Biden should be able to reign over their cockamamie schemes to once again, give their bosses ( Kochs, Mercersi, Leo, etc.) another raise. Certainly hope he is able to veto the crap out of just about everything they do so that some of the R’s come to the Dems, begging for help.
I too, am very frustrated with Garland, especially when you see how quickly Lula’s security guards were able to bring Bolsonaro’s supporters to a screeching halt. They arrested at least 1000 people. Bolsonaro has been hiding out in Orlando for 2 months. He knew this would happen because Bannon set everything up. Bolsonaro must be kicked out of the US as soon as his “abdominal pains” go away. Garland must stop Bannon in his tracks....NOW! I mean, how many times does it take for this criminal to commit acts of violence before he’s thrown into the slammer?
I'm going to continue to remind people that "when you strike the king, you must kill him." The evidence against Trump has to be stronger than strong, more certain than certain. Even with the best evidence possible, one Trumper sneaking onto the jury could hang it. If he was indicted and tried - and conspiracy trials are traditionally "iffy" with the standard of proof necessary for conviction - and got off, he would be strong enough to be irresistible.
I''m fine with making things as absolutely certain as possible. The last thing we want is that traitor getting off.
I disagree. The standard for prosecuting Trump should be the standard for prosecuting any defendant. All litigation is uncertain and if fear of a Trump holdout on the jury is enough to dissuade us from prosecuting Trump, then all presidents have immunity. All litigation is uncertain, even when you think you have a good case. Here, delay will not make the case stronger; it will make it weaker. See, e.g., the discovery of two documents at Biden's vice presidential library.
Here is my least favorite example of litigation uncertainty. I tried a case in Florida. At the end, my opponent--not his lawyers, but my opponent--came up to me and said, "Congratulations! You were magnificent." I took that as a good sign. When the judgment was issued, I lost on every claim as badly as possible. That happens sometimes and you just have to accept it as part of the inherent risk.
"The standard for prosecuting Trump should be the standard for prosecuting any defendant". I agree with this because it is the right principle and because despite the fact nothing is 100% certain, a win against Trump is likely.
I think we already have a spectacle. The J6 hearings were a spectacle, and a good thing. Every time Trump speaks or tweets it's a spectacle, and a bad thing.
As to giving them a martyr, they already have martyrs, with Trump having proclaimed himself the biggest in history with every investigation of him as a "witch hunt". Being martyrs is a specialty of the right wing. In fact MAGA voters identify as "great patriots who have been badly & unfairly treated for so long".
Democrats have a long history of holding off on strong actions - justified actions - because if we do, the Republicans will just do it to us when they are in office. Guess what? Sparing Republicans does nothing but spare Republicans to fight again another day. They do whatever they want without precedence, without the slightest hesitation from any feeling of fair play, any guilt over moral or ethical concerns, or any previous traditions of acceptable behavior. Democrats aren't lowering themselves to Republicans' level by refusing to allow fear of retaliation and a measly hope of being spared in the future to prevent strong acts of justice.
I understand needing to proceed carefully and fully but holding nothing back so as to "kill the king" in the original TC comment, but yes, do strike the killing blow and stop just stiff fingering him in the chest. This one needs to be out of the way, not just wounded and growing more spiteful on the benches.
If we have one jury member whose mind was already locked down on a jury that's an oversight and poor performance during jury selection, but (like with the J6 committee) the nation will be watching and the nation will likewise judge.
Well said Robert!
I agree with TC on this one. This situation with Trump is incendiary for so many reasons. Mostly right now is the question: Do we really want to prosecute a former President while moving into an election year? Right now he is more or less contained. A public spectacle would vault him back into national prominence.
Also and seemingly related is this: If going by the "miraculous" discovery of classified documents in Biden's Library is any indication this promises to be an exceptionally nasty Presidential election cycle. And we can now see how the Republicans are going to play it. We nor Garland cannot afford one single misstep. We are walking a Democracy tightrope.
"Do we really want to prosecute a former President while moving into an election year?" If necessary to defend the Constitution, yes.
We’ve been walking a “Democracy tightrope” since tfg won in 2016 and took office in January, 2017! The high wire act is/ has gotten old, more than old……
TFG could have been indicted and convicted already for the documents held at Maralago and his subsequent obstruction related to those docs. A trial for the Maralago docs would have (and would) only take two or three days.
If the DOJ indicts tfg for anything related to Jan 6th, the 2024 elections will be finished, decided, and done LONG BEFORE any trial of tfg for Jan 6 starts.
Seriously! How much longer should we walk this tightrope?!!
"If the DOJ indicts tfg for anything..."
And if they don't win the case? Then what? We have a martyr on our hands.
If we let that fear control our actions, we have just granted Trump immunity. The only thing worse than indicting Trump and possibly losing is not indicting Trump and removing all doubt that he will walk free.
You're right, but given the history of conspiracy prosecutions, having super-solid evidence is still not a guarantee of success.
He already is a martyr. Just ask him!
(As well as any and/ or all of his devout followers!)
Maralago is a slam dunk case. An easy win.
Sometimes it appears no charges are being brought by the DOJ out of fear they will win/ get a conviction of tfg! Fear that if convicted his devout followers will rise up and start a civil war!
It constantly feels like we’re in a damned if we do damned if we don’t situation when it comes to him
Plenty of tRumps underlings, most notably the fake electors, are still running free and are not heavy lifts. Get off your ass Mr. Garland!
No arguments here. But I'm glad that Michigan AG Dana Nessel is changing her mind about leaving the Michigan fake electors to be investigated by the DOJ. She thinks the DOJ is taking too long. If she prosecutes Michigan's fake electors and wins, they can never be pardoned by any American president. And my understanding is that they can still be federally prosecuted if the DOJ decides to do so. https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/06/politics/michigan-fake-electors-attorney-general-dana-nessel-investigation/index.html
Thank you Robert Hubbell and TCinLA and additional readers for the deep analysis today. A lot of readings ahead. The reminder about one Trumper sneaking onto a jury is frightening but correct and important to try to remember, even when of course one would want him convicted.
Been waiting. Fear I will die first
Jeri, me too--literally. As a result I have ordered my body not to die.
Bannon is the poster boy for shouting "FIRE!" in a crowded theater.
Yes, and that's after HE starts the fire.
Every now and then I remember a column by Greg Olear that said Trump has been given immunity from prosecution because he has long been an informant for organized crime, including the international crimes of oligarchs. Then, I recalled how Trump boasted that he could shoot somebody in public and get away with it. Not that he is a good guy, rather he swims with the sharks. Maybe it's an outrageous theory, but then again, it could explain it all.
I had never heard of the Greg Olear column you referred to, so I looked it up. It's shocking, but given what we do know, it's believable. Has anyone ever offered any reasons not to believe what is in Olear's article?
https://gregolear.substack.com/p/tinker-tailor-mobster-trump
There were a few other articles listed at the end of the Trump/CI article. The interview with the comic who worked at the Celebrity Apprentice was also an eye opener. Again, is there any push back in public to the allegations of Trump's drug abuse? https://gregolear.substack.com/p/full-disclosure-an-interview-with
I'd like to know if this is all unsubstantiated gossip and if not, why it hasn't been picked up by any media outlets.
Now you know as much as I do from your research. I imagine there would be hell to pay for a broader release without substantial proof, one way or the other. I think it is wiser to suspend judgement at this point, and we may never know the truth since international ramifications would be horrific. But as I said, it has stuck in the back of my mind whenever the delay of DOJ resurfaces. As for substance abuse, I believe its true that DJT uses prescription meds, even currently, but he does not use alcohol.
I didn't think you had the answers, but I was hoping someone else on this comment section might know something.
There is a difference between using prescription medications and abusing them. Not sure which he does. All I've ever heard is how he never touches alcohol.
I appreciate your comment about the international ramifications if the story were true and was widely reported. But I can't say right now that I think it's better for America or the world that any truth to that story should be hidden, if it causes DOJ to delay and ultimately resist or deliberately fail at a prosecution. The possibility of a successful fascist coup in America in the future because Trump and his closest supporters are not prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law by "unfettered" DOJ attorneys is just unthinkable.
Very true CC. Thanks for your comments.
Yes. Great article and I do feel like it's both credible and explains a great deal about Trump and his family. His own lawyer Cohen said he uses mob speak when he's letting you know what he wants done - never actually spelling it out in an undeniable way. He's not especially bright but it's easy to learn things like that when you are immersed from the cradle (as was Jared as well).
Fingers crossed.
The insane reactions to life-saving vaccines are beyond any reason or logic. I simply cannot wrap my head around the illogical bloviating on this subject. It’s like Nietzsche said “In individuals, insanity is rare; but in groups, parties, nations, and epochs, it is the rule.”
I don't get it either. But caution genes run in my family. We've all had all six vaxes, and we all take ample vitamin D, without which, the immune system doesn't function on all four cylinders.
Unfortunately, docs of a certain age were taught that it's easy to get a toxic dose of D. It's actually quite hard to get a toxic dose. How much different people need depends on their individual physiology. I take 5000 IU every other day, four times a week--20,000/a week--which is cheaper than taking 3000/day (21,000/week). 2000/day is often sufficient for small, slender people, and some need as much as 5000, 6000, or 10,000 every day (the latter a friend of mine for osteopenia). Fauci takes 6000 a day. People with MS are given as much as 20,000/day, which reduces symptoms and slow progression, and I sure wish I'd known about that when my mother was alive.
It does take around 6 weeks to get the blood level to where you want it--40-60 ng/ml. My own blood level is around 55 ng/ml, both in summer, when I don't take any, but run shirtless in the sun just about every day, and it winter, when I'm taking my 20k/week. It's an easy test to get from your MD.
I started taking it in '04. Until then, I had a bunch of things I did whenever I started to get a cold, to try to stop it in its tracks or mitigate the symptoms. About a year and a half after starting to take D I realized I hadn't done my cold routine since before I'd started taking D, and it's remained that way. I've done it maybe twice since then, instead of several times a year. Have hardly had any flu, either.
There are a number of studies suggesting that people with ample D have milder covid when they get it.
It reminds me of the snake handling religion in the good ol' Southern states. If you don't get bitten it is proof of God's favor. If you do get bitten, well, C'est la vie!
Rattlesnakes don't want to bite you. They have the rattle because all that venom is expensive. There is actually an old African American folktale about How the Snake Got his Rattle, which demonstrates a thorough understanding of this. After the snake starts killing other animals, which happens after God gives him the poison, ostensibly to keep the other animals from stepping on him, a couple of the animals go to God to ask him to do something about the problem. (I have it in a book of folktales.) It's also very funny, with the God character smoking his cigars, which Mrs. God hates.
Interestingly, the rattle only evolved once.
I understand that Steve Bannon is appealing his conviction & remains out of prison while this is being processed, but meanwhile he is creating havoc. I think that the world (especially Brasil) would benefit if he were behind bars serving his sentence for his contempt for our laws. Trump corruptly pardoned him once. Time for him to pay the piper.
WAY past time.
I have to say that the news of the celebratory moron Diamond, a Trumpscum who publickly celebrated ignorance and mendacity, would have me putting a nice bottle of champagne on ice with which to celebrate her decision to Make America Great Again by permanently departing, if i still had nice bottles of champagne available to put on ice and still drank them.
As a doctor I know told me three years ago this month when the first news of the virus started coming out, a pandemic is Evolution's IQ test - are you intelligent enough to take this information and modify you behavior in such a way as to maximize your likelihood of survival? It's pass/fail. Recent news is that vaccination rates now track with political affiliation, with a majority of Democrats being vaccinated and a majority of Republicans being unvaccinated, and that death rates since the introduction of the vaccines have also tracked with political affiliation, with the greatest number of deaths being among Republicans in red states. See? Evolution is right, and with the reintroduction of Darwinian evolution - survival of the fittest - we should see more Homo Sapiens and fewer Homo Saps. In fact, there is an argument made that the November election results were affected by the increased die-off of the old white boomer Republicans too stupid to get vaccinated.
Fewer Republican morons. I like that outcome.
"Evolution's IQ test." Love it. Sadly.
I guess there is always a "silver lining". May they pass quietly. But here is the thing. Many of these idiots won't die from the newest Covid. They will be disabled. Incapable of working and contributing to society's coffers. Which in a very twisted way, makes them the ultimate irony in this battle between us and them. Maybe we should start calling them the "Covid Queens".
After dodging Covid for almost three years, my wife and I were slammed with it on Christmas. We are fully boosted and after a week of significant agony, we seem better. And this is where I must applaud science and the "state".
On the Christmas weekend, needless to say, the doctors office was closed. But from their website I was directed to a State of Massachusetts website. Within five minutes, I was on a video call with a friendly, smart nurse practitioner. She asked a few questions and then explained that she was prescribing Paxlovid and that my pharmacy would have it ready within an hour. 48 hours later we were on the road to recovery. So grateful!
And that my friends, is how the "gubmint" helps its citizens and sometimes saves lives. Take that Ronnie Raygun - and stick it where the sun don't shine.
"Many of these idiots won't die from the newest Covid. They will be disabled. Incapable of working and contributing to society's coffers. Which in a very twisted way, makes them the ultimate irony..." Hmmm, never thought of it that way. The sadder realities are the folks who were vaccinated, got covid before the boosters, and are now long haulers. My husband and I have managed to avoid covid since the get-go, vaxing, boosting, masking, along with quite a number of friends, but it's still a nag in the back of my psyche. VERY happy to hear of your success and well-being! Long live state/county departments of health and their websites!
COVID cases are up in my area--eastern Mass--and I hate having to wear the damn masks again, but I would hate more to get COVID. (I don't bother with the masks outside unless I'm in a genuine crowd.)
I'm sorry to hear you suffered and glad to hear you recovered.
Many people who get covid and survive may not only be left physically disabled, but may be left with brain damage that not only effects their ability to focus (the now famous post covid fog) but may also affect their ability to process information logically and affect their ability to control their emotions, especially aggressiveness. If you poke around on paywall free sites for original research (like Oxford Press) you can probably find some of that since I can't pull a reference off the top of my head. I do think it has contributed in some way to the strangely hair trigger nature of our public discourse. Of course, one would expect those after effects would be found in the highest numbers among anti-vaxers.
Great story Bill and even better is the news that you and your wife have recovered. Not the merriest of Christmases, but certainly a great start to the new year.
Except the R's in power all had the vaccine. Some lied, many lied. But they are protected to that degree of the vax. Masking no. That would be harder to lie about.
-->> "Evolution's IQ test" <<-- Yep!
"with the reintroduction of Darwinian evolution - survival of the fittest - we should see more Homo Sapiens and fewer Homo Saps."
Love it!
As I read the bit from Today’s Edition extrapolating from the 14th Amendment an interpretation that would grant the Presidency “the authority to continue to pay pre-existing debt even if Congress does not ‘raise the debt ceiling,’” admittedly, I feel a combination of relief and uneasiness. Allow me to explain.
I imagine as one delegitimates the Legislative branch one simultaneously strengthens the Executive. Because the Executive presently is Joe Biden, he’s not going to take advantage of that, he’s not going to abuse it. I imagine, instead, he’ll likely regretfully issue a few executive orders as permitted and warranted.
However, if the table is set so that people don’t think the Legislative branch can work—that the Legislature already is broken—and we get a corrupt president, one who’s not hesitant to do all kinds of things, then we really are entering a kind of democratic breakdown situation. Hence, when I think about the long game of what could transpire in the radical-right House over the next 2 years, that’s partly what I worry about.
Those are legitimate concerns. But as the second article I cited explains, Biden will be in a situation where he has competing legitimate demands: One to spend money and service debt lawfully authorized and the other not to increase the debt.
There are many ways to solve t his dilemma. Not doing anything is a failure to observe the command of the 14th amendment. Selectively paying some debts is the worst option because it allows the president to usurp the legislative function in deciding which programs to fund and which debtors to pay. The best option is for the president to fund all programs and pay all debts as commanded by the 14th amendment.
Robert, I expect, from your reply, that I did not adequately convey the intent of my comment. Though I started with your reference to the debt ceiling, my main concern, since observing McCarthy giving away the House so he could take the Speakership, involved the chaos I imagined would result followed by an increasing transfer of power to the executive that, under different leadership, could leave the republic in grave danger.
Excellent points. My first thought is that when bailing the boat it's not a good idea to worry about the next cruise.
Barbara, My thanks for your affirming reply. As for pondering feasible consequences further down the road, I have found it’s every bit as critical to try and connect the dots as one looks forward as it is to learn from the past.
The kicker in this conversation is that the President has no money of his own to pay the bills with. Everything available to the Executive branch has to be appropriated by the Congress based on legislation that, Constitutionally, must originate in the House. The 212 Democrats who stood firmly with Mr. Jeffries need to start building some bridges to at least 6 of the 18 Republicans who were elected from districts that Biden won in the last election. It may help that David Valadao, who is one of them, voted to impeach the traitor Trump.
I think the argument is that the Constitution gives Biden the power to issue debt in extraordinary circumstances to honor existing obligations authorized by Congress.
That's what I understood too, but it will be, at best, interesting to see if that holds up in practice. I'd like to believe it but it seems quite a concatenation of concepts and there will be a lot of naysayers.
Robert, While your explanation is not addressed to me, I believe you’re right and am most grateful, let alone relieved, for the clarification. That said, were you to review my response to your initial reply to me, you would note that the point of my comment at the start of this thread was misunderstood.
David, I write because, while there will be more votes down the road, to date, despite efforts by House Dems to extend an open hand to reasonable members across the aisle, barring Andrew Garbarino, no seemingly moderate establishment House Republican has been willing to break ranks and defy Party leadership. Additionally, no number of phone calls from highly motivated voters could convince them to put country before party.
I further would note our list included David Valadao and Dan Newhouse, both of whom voted for Trump’s Second Impeachment and held their seats. Others on our list, who had signaled a willingness to work with like-minded people across the aisle, included: Brian Fitzpatrick, Mike Carey, John Curtis, Mike Gallagher, Ashley Hinson, David Joyce, Nicole Maliotakis, Blake Moore, and Ken Calvert. As stated, despite the despicable deals that were cut to get McCarthy the gavel, only 1 from the list, Andrew Garbarino, voted against the House rules package.
Still, given there will be more votes, I expect none of us is prepared to relent.
Your suspicion is correct, at least as far as I'm concerned. My rep, Ann Wagner, is a placeholder who just follows orders but I'm getting to know her office staff well.
Dave, For what it’s worth, I’m delighted to hear that you (and hopefully other) remain in contact with Wagner’s staff.
I'm sure there are others Barbara. The MO GOP legislators were concerned enough about her to redraw her district lines twice before the last election. Maybe one day she'll listen.
I wondered about that.
It sounds though, as explained in the article, like the ability to proceed without the legislative body is very clearly limited to servicing the national debt. Not a lot of play there or opportunity to line one's pockets, favor friends, and so on.
Not to mention we just finished having a president who played fast and loose with bypassing legitimate processes as much as possible. As pessimistic and cynical as I can sometimes be, we did just go through that particular stress test.
I do wish however that Biden would assign a committee to examine all the ways Trump and members of his administration side stepped the intent of our laws and government structure and recommend steps to close those gaps. We would all sleep sounder and worry less.
Yehawes, I write because, despite Trump’s loss, I’d argue that the republic remains in grave danger while the third-highest ranking office in the country (next after the Vice-president) is occupied by someone who owes his position to organized white Christian nationalists. Hence, the justification for partnering with communities like this one to work for more democracy (e.g., federal voter protections, D.C./ Puerto Rican statehood, big money out of politics, and the like).
As a final point, I would note that my reply to Dave Conant, who is part of this thread, also was intended for you.
And even the ability to service the debt is based on rolling over earlier issues into more current ones. The new bond issues are contingent on Congressional approval of an increased debt ceiling.
The big difference between Biden and Trump regarding classified information is you kinda expect Trump to act and behave the way he did and break the law and you expect Biden to be a straight shooter and obey the law and know he made an honest mistake regardless of what Republicans say. What is frustrating to me is there are a lot of investigations of Trump in Georgia, New York, DC and California and people like Bannon, Eastman Giuliani and Meadows are still walking around and making all kinds of noise. What has to happen is these folks need to be indicted and the domestic terrorists in the House must testify which will take the focus away from the bogus “ investigations “ and focus on real indictments. It’s the only way to shut these folks up.
This is the first newsletter from you where I was too exhausted to go on after three paragraphs. Really. I just finished a morning meditation on breathing, made a cup of tea and sat down again to read. I just can't do it. I can't follow the trail of evil. "End IRS funding", wrap up existing Social Security (I already paid for mine), stop funding Ukraine. I don't know where to put my brain but I think it is in a garden catalogue.
That's not good and I urge you to take a break. Not much will change in the next several months. Everyone deserves time to recharge and rest. Take some time off.
You could have used my name in today's call...permanent permission. just can't listen to the hate and manipulation right now....but after the Founding Members Call, I listened to Hakeem Jefferies's acceptance speech. OMG. That is leadership. Keep talking, Mr. Jefferies, we need to hear you. Get on all the airwaves....or whatever they are called.
Well, this is traditionally the time of year to order seeds and day dream over plants and fantasize about wee green sprouts and bodacious color. May you positively inhale spiritual renewal off the glossy pages of plantly promise!
I have a tendency to over-simplify. In this case I generalize and say the right wing thugs will obstruct anything the Dems have approved. So much for their administrative skills and intelligence. That is as far as they can think. Then I meditate and have some tea.
Regarding Garland……if his justice department had moved more quickly, not on a Trump indictment but on investigations and indictments of those in congress who worked to support the insurrection and the fraudulent electors, we might not be in this situation. Many of them would have either been convicted, removed from office, or exposed to their constituents as criminals.
Two things are needed to raise or remove the debt ceiling:
1. 218 votes in the House. I think those votes are probably there -- there must be at least 5 Republican representatives who do not want to throw the financial system into freefall. The harder part...
2. An opportunity for those 218 people to vote. Normally a measure can come to the floor of the House only with approval of the Rules Committee, controlled by the Speaker. But there are other, more difficult routes--e.g. a discharge petition, signed by at least 218 members.
What we can do is confront Republican members in their districts when the measure comes up, demanding that they lift the debt ceiling for the sake of the national economy.
A discharge petition - about which I'm completely ignorant. However, last night Lawrence O'Donnell said we're all going to learn about discharge petition very soon. So, get busy 218 members, I'm anxious to learn!
The legislation has to be written first and that probably won't happen until it's much closer to the deadline. Proactively resolving the problem is totally foreign to Congress any more and would eliminate a lot of opportunities for fundraising and clickbaiting.
I would imagine that House Democrats are already putting together legislation for a discharge petition and to raise the debt ceiling. The new House Minority leaders seem to me to be unlikely to wait until the last minute.
I certainly hope you're right, it would make more sense than otherwise.
It is perhaps presumptuous to disagree with the properly respected Ms. Applebaum, but she is wrong on one critical point - "after all, the American version already did". The American version has not failed and, as you, TC, Barbara Jo, Marlene and a number of other commenters have noted, until and unless the defeated former president and his immediate cohort of supporters and enablers are indicted, convicted and imprisoned, it will not have failed, the success of the insurrection will only have been postponed.
I'll not rehash the whole Social Security and Medicare conversation because it was well covered and commented on yesterday, but the House Republican Caucus has now teed up the ball for the Democrats who, if they chose to do so, could take advantage of a long, straight fairway lined by a huge crowd of Americans who would cheer their drive to stabilize the Trust Funds, institutionalize the benefit and COLA structure, and remove this topic from the political conversation for at least the next 10 years or until a revanchist Republican administration was voted into power. This is a remarkable Mulligan in politics and one hopes that, between Messrs. Jeffries, Schumer and Biden and with the support of the rightly esteemed former Speaker, they won't whiff this time.
Your "fairway" analogy provided a great visual!
Thanks.
This morning I broke a rule and decided to see what Hugh Hewitt (a Washington Post GOP "journalist" who is close enough to MAGA that I generally don't read what he has to say) had to say about McCarthy. He was against the group led by our new Speaker's antagonists and was praising McCarthy for all that he will accomplish now that he has outwitted Gaetz & Group and become victorious. To read Hewitt, there are deniers and there are deniers. Once again, I am proved to be baffled by the nuances on the side of those who publicly sought to overturn our government. Yesterday I asked someone who listens to Fox in order to translate their thinking to me (I confess I need a translator) tried to answer my question, "what liberties are they (like my sister) saying the country will lose with the Biden side," and the answer (which I can't articulate) is, I am told, "too complicated" for words. Given what I view as the ignorance and stupidity of that crowd, I believe that it is, indeed, too complicated for words. (Excuse my show of disgust.)
They don't feel the need to explain. They can't. Because there is no there there. There is only a blinding faith that Democrats are evil and will bring us Marxism and millions of immigrants running through the streets stealing our jobs and our daughters.
They can't reason through a problem objectively. Like the fact that the birth rate in the US is currently 1.65 and shrinking. That means there won't be enough workers to support the safety nets of Social Security and Medicare. So there you have it. The answer is at our "open border" but the hate for the other promoted by idiots like Hewitt blinds them. For folks who decide to embrace lie after lie based on fear and hate - there is no hope. They must be marginalized and defeated at the polls.
I believe it was Ben Shapiro who said that if you're explaining you're losing. It's about tribal identity and instinct and emotion and not about thinking with words.
Emotion vs reason/intellect? It's harder when it's family.
Terrific letter as always. A question: if one house member can require a no confidence vote on McCarthy, could that be a democrat? And if so could democrats find 5 moderate republicans to vote McCarthy out if and when moderate republicans are truly shamed by what the far right is up to?
Yes; a Democrat could open every day of the 118th Congress with a motion to vacate.
Wow, really? Why would Repubs allow that? Seems almost too good to be true in terms of leverage. I would think the motion to vacate would be restricted to the majority... Or can McCarthy restrict motions being brought to the floor...Anyway if true, it gives Democrats something to work with.
True, but of course since the Rs are going to be obstructionist the goal will be for the Ds to be clear about having actual policy goals when they obstruct. One of the goals of the Freedom Caucus is to bring down democracy and as soon as the Speaker's chair is vacated and the House is back to interminable voting that goal is partially accomplished.
Of course, there are worse things than the House unable to proceed, and that's a House ruled by MTG proceeding as advertised. It's a tool I hope the Ds use after attempts to work with more sane if not exactly moderate Rs and a tool I hope to see the Rs use first or most frequently.
Agreed. A tool to use when the Dems have 5 or 6 moderate repubs ready to elect a mutually agreed upon replacement for McCarthy and have the votes counted and ready.
Robert: as an astute observer of the political scene, you have developed a real talent in your ability to suss out the hidden aspects of proposed Republican legislation. That will be quite a gift to those of us who have been loyal readers of this newsletter. Keep up the good work.
I don't understand. Didn't Bannon get time for resisting a subpoena? Did he ever go to jail? Or is he stalling with endless appeals? He should be arrested for excessive smugness alone. Bannon and the whole top MAGA team are dangerous to the entire world.
NC, Bannon is appealing his conviction. Stay tuned.