Another good day for Biden.

January 25, 2024

Wednesday was another good day for President Biden’s re-election bid. After Biden’s strong victory in New Hampshire, the United Auto Workers Union endorsed Biden for president. And Nikki Haley came out swinging at Trump, needling him for “throwing a fit” in his “victory speech” and challenging him to debate (“Show me what you got!”). All good developments. Let’s take a look.

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UAW endorses Joe Biden.

Although it was always a given that the UAW would endorse Joe Biden for president, the delay in granting that endorsement was disappointing. But as Farah Stockman (of the NYTimes Editorial Board) wrote, “Biden Needed That U.A.W. Endorsement.”

Although the endorsement was not unexpected — Biden is widely considered the most pro-union president in generations — it does represent an important victory for the president at a time when some activists within the union argued that politicians who do not back calls for a cease-fire in Gaza should not be endorsed. Some union members were also concerned last year about the strength of Biden’s commitment to making sure that factories making electric vehicle components were unionized.

Despite the union’s hesitancy, UAW president Shawn Fain not only endorsed Biden in the strongest terms possible, he also attacked Trump for his anti-union stance—both during his term as president and as a candidate in the 2024 election.

Joe Biden’s speech to the UAW was not widely carried by the media because it was rational, lucid, and appropriate—unlike the unhinged “victory” speech by Trump on Tuesday evening. Being “normal” is not news. Biden’s speech to the UAW is here (starting at the 33:00-minute mark).

The UAW endorsement should be helpful in Michigan, a swing state crucial to Biden’s 2024 victory.

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Biden’s performance in New Hampshire was good. Really good.

Joe Biden’s performance in New Hampshire was good. Really good. How good? President Biden won more votes in NH re-election primary than did President Obama in the 2012 NH primary when Obama sought re-election to a second term.

President Obama garnered 49,080 votes in the 2012 NH primary, while President Biden won 77,061 write-in votes! (See Excel spreadsheet at NH Secretary of State website, “Write-ins Summary by Counties.”) An interesting point of reference: RFK Jr. received 435 write-in votes.

President Obama captured a greater percentage of votes in a lower turnout election in 2012, but Biden generated a 57% increase in votes over President Obama. That fact explains why no one is criticizing Biden’s performance in New Hampshire. It was outstanding.

On the other hand, the voting patterns for Trump reveal unprecedented levels of worry. As Steve Kornacki noted on Twitter,

We've never seen a gap between the independent vote and the Republican vote in an NH GOP primary like we saw last night. Trump won Republicans by 49, Haley took independents by 22—a swing of 71 points. Previous high was 40.

Even the NYTimes was moved to state the obvious: See NYTimes, New Hampshire and Iowa Reveal Broader Weaknesses for Trump. Per the Times,

Outside the soft bubble of Republican primaries, Mr. Trump’s campaign is confronting enduring vulnerabilities that make his nomination a considerable risk for his party. Those weaknesses were laid bare in New Hampshire on Tuesday, where independents, college-educated voters and Republicans unwilling to dismiss his legal jeopardy voted in large numbers for his rival, Nikki Haley.

But, true to form, the Times limited its analysis to describing a horse-race. The reporters who wrote the story did not mention why Trump was having trouble with Republican voters until 32 paragraphs into a 33-paragraph story. Even then, their anodyne observations about the greatest threat to American democracy in 150 years were limited to the following:

His fixation on the last election, his role in the riot at the Capitol on Jan. 6 and the 91 felony charges he is facing, most of which are tied to his attempts to hold on to power, threaten his prospects, and not just with already-wary independents and swing voters.

“Riot at the Capitol” and “attempts to hold onto power” are awfully nice words for “insurrection” and “attempted coup.”

Ah, well! We should take a win whenever we get one. The narrative is breaking in Biden’s favor, as Laurence Tribe and Dennis Aftergut note in their article on MSNBC, Why Joe Biden should feel good about a Donald Trump 2024 rematch.

Tribe and Aftergut write,

The good news, as the election comes into sharper focus, is that there is strong reason to believe that the sensible American majority will preserve our democracy and our freedoms in the only way we can, by rejecting Trumpism and keeping President Joe Biden in office.

The surest basis for optimism is evidence that the reality of a robust economy is sinking in with voters. Last week, The Wall Street Journal, citing a Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey, reported, “Consumer confidence last month saw its biggest one-month gain since March 2021.”

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Nikki Haley comes out swinging against Trump.

And then, there is Nikki Haley—“Bless her heart!” She has come out swinging at Trump on the first full day of campaigning after New Hampshire. She correctly observed that Trump “threw a fit” in his “victory” speech on Tuesday and taunted Trump, challenging him to a debate by challenging his manhood, saying

Bring it Donald, show me what you got.

Ouch!! Trump will not be able to contain himself and will flail against Haley in a crude, incoherent manner. Lucian Truscott IV describes what we can expect to see from Trump in his Substack post titled, Go, Nikki, go! Truscott writes,

Running against a woman, especially a disloyal woman who in the mind of Donald Trump owes him, will continue to drive him nuts, and when he’s mad, he starts referring to himself in the third person and talking about stuff like how people are going to get “de-banked” . . . . 

We won’t have to depend on reporters and pundits to point out Trump’s verbal slips and outright manic nonsense.  Haley will be right there watching him ready to capitalize every time he opens his mouth and some form of evident lunacy escapes his lips.  When she does, it will make him even crazier.

As Haley is goading Trump—and Trump is responding by calling her “Birdbrain”—the Biden campaign is pivoting to run against Trump.

Biden’s strategy is right. While Haley and Trump are battering one another, Biden will be focusing on Trump—and not alienating those independent voters who are currently supporting Haley. Smart move! It was a good two days. And there will likely be more to come as Trump “loses it” over a strong woman directly challenging him.

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The GOP’s cynical strategy on the “immigration crisis” at the border.

Although Republicans are screaming about the crisis at the border, they are doing everything they can to ensure that Democrats can’t address the crisis. Congressional Republicans have acted to ensure that the Biden request for supplemental funding on the border won’t make it out of Congress. Mitch McConnell told fellow GOP Senators on Wednesday that the border deal “was dead.” See The Hill, McConnell floats splitting Ukraine and border security amid GOP infighting.

What’s worse is that Trump has been lobbying Republicans to prevent progress on the border deal. See Huffington Post, Exclusive: Trump Pressuring GOP Senators To ‘Kill’ Biden's Border Deal.

Per Huffington Post,

Trump directly reached out to several GOP senators on Wednesday to tell them to reject any deal, said this source, who requested anonymity to speak freely. The GOP presidential frontrunner also personally reached out to some Senate Republicans over the weekend, the source told HuffPost.

“Trump wants them to kill it because he doesn’t want Biden to have a victory,” said the source. “He told them he will fix the border when he is president. . . . He said he only wants the perfect deal.”

I know this situation is frustrating to Democrats, many of whom are starting to believe the disinformation campaign by Republicans that Joe Biden isn’t doing anything to enforce immigration and security laws at the border. He is! If you are still doubtful about Biden’s performance on this issue, I refer you back to my newsletter of January 12, 2024, article entitled, “Don’t believe the lies about Joe Biden and the border.”

Biden has enforced US immigration laws to a greater degree than did Trump during his tenure. Don’t believe the GOP lies—lies that are being used to give Trump a campaign issue at the expense of Americans who want a solution to the border crisis.

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Senate Committee advances bill that would transfer Russian assets to Ukraine.

The Senate inaction over the border bill has slowed action on supplemental funding for Ukraine. But possible good news is on the horizon: The Senate Foreign Relations Committee has advance the REPO Act, which would allow the US to transfer frozen Russian assets to Ukraine. See Razom for Ukraine, Tell Congress to pass the REPO Act.

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Opportunity for reader engagement.

Here is a pitch to a really terrific event hosted by San Gabriel Valley / Swing Left called “Smart Giving: Jessica Craven Talks Money. One of the most frequent requests I receive from readers is, “How can I make smart investments with my donations?” Jessica Craven and Swing Left / San Gabriel Valley are both wonderful and inspiring. Why not join them?

Each day we’re deluged by requests from candidates and organizations asking for money. We know early money is vital to campaigns, but where should we put it? Where will it have the greatest impact? How do we avoid scammers? Luckily, Jessica Craven has the answers. Join us on Tuesday, February 6 at 6:30 pm when Jessica will talk to us about strategic donations, how to get the biggest bang for our buck in the most important election year of our lives and common mistakes left-leaning donors make. Bring a notepad or your phone because you’ll want to jot down the guidance she offers. And invite a friend or two as well. Register here

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Concluding Thoughts.

Over the last two weeks, the tone and atmosphere have shifted in the presidential race. The media is no longer discussing Trump as if he is an unstoppable juggernaut who will cruise into a second term against a weak Joe Biden. Now that Trump is again in the public eye daily, people are recalling the insanity and chaos of his presidency. Remember waking up every morning wondering, “What crazy thing has he said now?”

At the same time, Biden is acting in a rational, normal manner. He held talks with senior congressional leaders the second week in January to broker the third continuing resolution (to avoid a budget shutdown). He managed to win in New Hampshire without appearing on the ballot. He gave a normal speech accepting the UAW endorsement, during which he managed to “stay on script” by reading the speech on the teleprompter (a skill that now eludes Trump).

Compared to “crazy,” it doesn’t take much to demonstrate competence and normalcy. And Trump is about to show the world what crazy really means as he is challenged by a strong woman who is not afraid to mock his insecurity and weaknesses. It is not Joe Biden’s fault that the bar is so low (compared to Trump). But as long as it is, Democrats should highlight that fact until it becomes “baked in” to the media narrative about Trump.

Indeed, as I write this evening, Trump is pulling the “mob boss” routine (“You’re dead to me”) on anyone who supports Haley going forward—donors who include Koch Industries and hedge fund billionaires not afraid to spend their own money to defeat Trump. See NBC News, Trump threatens to blacklist Haley donors.

Trump's threats are a perfect illustration of what it will be like under Trump as “a dictator on day one.” Perhaps the billionaires who formerly backed Trump will finally begin to realize they created a monster in 2016.

As I said at the outset, it was another good day for Biden.

Talk to you tomorrow!