Another action-packed day!
December 15, 2023
More good news for Democrats (and all Americans) on the economy, the budget, possible funding for Ukraine, and a ruling by the Supreme Court refusing to stay a ban on assault rifles. The US continues to pressure Israel to change tactics in Gaza, Putin threatens Ukraine, and shocking disclosures regarding Republican corruption. And Trump loses again on the NY gag order.
We shouldn’t “keep score” on the political news each day. That type of short-term thinking will cause us to lose perspective. But the media and pundits do “keep score” daily. Even the most committed pessimists and persistent critics of Biden had to admit that it had been a very good week for Biden and the Democrats.
As I did yesterday, I am using a more compressed, structured format to cover many topics. Although a compressed format will not be suitable every day, I received lots of positive feedback (and no complaints) about the change in newsletter style. Links to sources are included in blue hypertext. Recommended articles are cited by publication and title.
The Federal Reserve Board holds interest rates steady, hints at future decreases.
What happened. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve Board held interest rates steady and hinted at cuts in 2024. On Wednesday, the stock market reached an all-time high.
Why it matters. The Fed used high-interest rates to fight inflation, which punished consumers, home buyers, students, and businesses. Holding rates steady and hinting at future cuts signals confidence that inflation is under control and that the economy may have dodged the long-predicted post-pandemic recession.
Likely outcome. This development is a big deal that should help Joe Biden reverse the unrelenting (and erroneous) view that the US economy is “bad.” It should boost Biden’s re-election prospects.
More to read. Simon Rosenberg, Hopium Chronicles (on Substack), The Good Economic News Just Keeps Coming.
Surprise! House passes defense spending bill!
What happened. The House voted to approve the Senate version of the defense spending bill—which omitted culture-war provisions banning access to abortions and prohibiting “woke” policies. The defense bill will now go to President Biden for signature. In another surprise, Congress included a provision that prohibits a US president from withdrawing from NATO without congressional approval!
Why it matters. When I made predictions yesterday regarding prospects for the Senate defense bill, “immediate approval by the House” wasn’t on my Bingo card. More importantly, the defense bill garnered more support among Democrats than Republicans in the House—a recurring pattern in every major bill passed in the GOP-controlled House in 2023. The reactionary Freedom Caucus was once again abandoned, alone, and angry. Sound familiar?
Likely outcome. The surprise approval suggests that Speaker Mike Johnson and non-Freedom Caucus members will act responsibly with other “must-pass” legislation, including supplemental funding for Ukraine and Israel. But Mike Johnson is quickly burning through his political capital with the radicals in the Freedom Caucus.
More to read. Politico, House sends defense bill to Biden, despite conservative anger over spy powers, culture wars, and The Hill, Congress approves bill barring any president from unilaterally withdrawing from NATO.
Three Developments regarding Ukraine.
Ukraine Development 1: What happened. In a rambling press conference, an emboldened Putin said Russia’s goals in its war against Ukraine have not changed, and he is confident Russia will win.
Why it matters. Putin is watching the GOP dysfunction and believes the US will abandon Ukraine.
Likely outcome. Putin’s bellicose statements increase the likelihood of passage of US aid for Ukraine.
More to read. The Hill, Democrat says Putin ‘celebrating’ Congress going home without passing Ukraine aid, and Institute for the Study of War, Russian Campaign Assessment 2023-12-14.
Ukraine Development 2: What happened. The EU voted to start the process of admitting Ukraine into the EU—over the objections of Hungary. Hours later, Hungary opposed a €50 billion aid package to Ukraine.
Why it matters. Admission to the EU would help Ukraine overcome its historical ties to Russia and provide an economic boost to its wartime economy.
Likely outcome. Depends on Ukraine surviving Russian invasion.
More to read. The Guardian, EU sidesteps Viktor Orbán to open membership talks with Ukraine.
Ukraine Development 3: What happened. Majority Leader Chuck Schumer asked the Senate to delay its year-end recess to continue work on a US immigration bill tied to funding for Ukraine.
Why it matters. The Senate may resolve the thorny issues relating to immigration at the US southern border in December, making passage of a Ukrainian supplemental aid bill in January more likely. As Schumer spoke in positive terms about reaching a deal, progressives in the Democratic caucus expressed alarm about some of the provisions that Senate Democrats are considering.
Likely outcome. Very difficult to predict, but my pessimism on the defense bill was wrong. I am prepared to be surprised (again).
More to read. Politico, 'Rude awakening': Biden takes progressive fire in border talks, and Vox, Senate immigration talks: Why Biden might give in to GOP demands (“Democrats have grown uncomfortable with the border and asylum situation in the Biden years, which have featured a dramatic surge in border crossings and asylum requests.”)
Supreme Court refuses to stay ban on automatic rifles in Illinois.
What happened. Illinois enacted an assault rifle ban after the Highland Park mass shooting in July 2022. The ban has been challenged by groups claiming that it violates the Second Amendment as interpreted by the Supreme Court in the Bruen decision. Federal district and appellate courts upheld the Illinois ban. On Thursday, the Supreme Court refused to enjoin the law banning assault rifles pending further legal proceedings.
Why it matters. The lower court rulings held that the Second Amendment (as interpreted by Bruen) does not protect “semiautomatic weapons that are much more like machine guns and military-grade weaponry.” The Supreme Court’s implicit approval of the Illinois ban may signal the outer perimeter of the reactionary majority’s willingness to tolerate mass slaughter of innocent Americans by weapons of war.
Likely outcome. Expect other Democratically controlled states to pass similar legislation. However, the Supreme Court’s decision did not decide the merits of the challenge to the law; gun groups will continue to challenge the ban. Nonetheless, the Court’s refusal to enjoin the law is a good sign that a majority of justices believe the ban does not violate the Second Amendment.
More to read. NPR, Supreme Court leaves Illinois semiautomatic gun ban in place.
US National Security Adviser confirms US is pressuring Israel to change tactics in Gaza.
What happened. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters in Israel, “So the issue really is when does Israel shift from the high-intensity military operations that are underway today to a different phase of this conflict, one that’s more precise, more targeted.”
Why it matters. Sullivan’s statement confirmed previous reporting from anonymous sources yesterday. Importantly, the Biden administration has disclosed to the public its previous private pressure on Israel—presumably as a way to increase pressure on Netanyahu.
What to expect. Israel will stop aerial bombing campaigns and switch to commando raids targeted at Hamas leaders within the next two to four weeks.
More to read: Times of Israel, Sullivan describes 'intense conversations' with Israel on when to shift from 'high-intensity' conflict in Gaza.
New York intermediate appellate court upholds Trump gag order.
What happened. Judge Engoron issued a gag order prohibiting Trump from targeting court personnel and witnesses in the NY civil fraud trial against Trump, who then filed a separate lawsuit against Judge Engoron. On Thursday, a New York appeals court said Trump should not have sued Judge Engoron in a new lawsuit, but should have instead taken an appeal from the proceeding in which the gag order was issued.
Why it matters. Trump is extending his losing streak in courts of appeal on a variety of matters. Nobody likes a loser. Just ask Trump.
Likely outcome. Trump will appeal to the NY supreme court (confusingly called the Court of Appeals).
More to read: NBC News, Appeals court again upholds gag order barring Donald Trump from commenting about judge’s staff.
Republican corruption.
What happened. On Thursday, three stories of Republican corruption were reported by the media. Each is shocking in its own way, but all are entirely predictable for a party in which hypocrisy is not only tolerated but celebrated.
What happened | James Comer. The Associated Press is reporting that James Comer, Chair of the House Oversight Committee (which is running the Biden impeachment inquiry) is using shell companies to conceal his joint ownership of a six-acre parcel in Kentucky. Why? The reason is not clear, but Comer co-owns the land with a campaign donor. Comer did not list the co-ownership in congressional financial disclosure forms. See Republican leading Hunter Biden probe has his own shell company | AP News.
What happened | Christian Zeigler. According to a Florida media outlet, multiple sources confirm that the Chair of the Florida Republican Party is demanding a multi-million-dollar payout to resign as head of the Florida GOP after a rape allegation against Zeigler was reported last week. See Florida Politics, Sources: Christian Ziegler wants multimillion-dollar buyout to step down as Florida GOP Chair. Zeigler denies the allegations.
What happened | Mike Garcia. GOP Rep. Mike Garcia represents CA-27, the seat held (briefly) by Katie Hill. According to the Daily Beast, Garcia “sold up to $50,000 in shares of aerospace giant Boeing, weeks before his committee released the damning results of its investigation into deadly crashes involving the company’s 737 Max airliner.” Compounding the apparently illegal sale, Garcia failed to report the transaction ahead of the 2020 election (as required), but instead delayed reporting until after he had won re-election! See The Daily Beast, GOP Rep. Mike Garcia Secretly Sold Boeing Stock Ahead of Damning Report.
Why it matters. Democrats should be shouting from the rooftops about these ethical lapses to help divert the media narrative away from the sham impeachment inquiry.
Likely outcome. The media will give scant attention to these stories. Too much work, not enough clickbait.
Concluding Thoughts.
Democrats need to do a better job of going on offense and defense. The actions and implications of the Fed’s announcement (and last week’s jobs report) are phenomenal news. The Biden administration commented on the Fed’s announcement in a Sergeant Joe Friday, “Just the fact, Ma’am” style. Let’s hope that someone in the back room of a PAC or the DNC is feverishly working on a series of ads touting the success of Bidenomics. In the meantime, we should all do our best to be messengers of the good news for Joe Biden.
Conversely, Democrats aren’t tough enough on hypocrites like James Comer and Jim Jordan, who are directing the impeachment inquiry into Joe Biden. Comer is using the same legal corporate structures employed by Hunter Biden—with the added fact that Comer failed to report the assets held by shell companies as required by House rules! And Jim Jordan refused to comply with a congressional subpoena issued by the January 6 committee, even as he threatens to hold Hunter Biden in contempt for offering to show up for public testimony rather than a closed-door deposition.
There is an old joke with many variations, but one telling is this: “What do Democrats bring to a knife fight?” Answer: “A cheese and fruit plate with a nice Chardonnay.”
A reader recently sent me a note urging me not to use terms like “fight” or “struggle” to describe our situation but to use terms urging collaboration instead. I understand the import of the reader’s advice, but Republicans just opened an impeachment inquiry when they cannot even identify the crime being investigated!
So, while I agree with the reader who says we should avoid combative metaphors and those readers who urge me to focus on Biden’s accomplishments, Republicans have given us ample low-hanging opportunities to create a counter-narrative to the false narrative pushed by Republicans—and dutifully reported by the press. At the very least, we should amplify accurate reporting about Republican malfeasance. There is no shame in that.
And while you are at it, spread the good news of Joe Biden’s terrific economic accomplishments!
Talk to you tomorrow (with a shortened newsletter—taking the granddaughters to look at Christmas lights tomorrow evening!).
Great newsletter, Robert! I really really like this format. We gotta hit the R’s where it hurts and I don’t care if it’s below the belt. They have disrupted our lives long enough and as far as I am concerned, they are all low hanging fruit-balls! As for Trump, he keeps losing and losing and losing. In fact, he is one big fat LOSER.
It was the last night of Chanukkah and my concerns are still with the hostages as well as the health and well-being of the Palestinians. May a miracle happen.
“Collaboration“ is bringing a cheese and fruit plate to a knife fight.
Let’s fight till we are secure in both houses, and then talk about collaboration.