As I keep saying, ignore the polls and keep working for the midterms. You can make statistics say whatever you want if you try hard enough. We CAN do this!!!!!
I had a college professor who started her class on statistics with a book titled "How to Lie with Statistics". It was a great way to introduce the subject matter to this naive 19 year old.
Sep 28, 2022·edited Sep 28, 2022Liked by Robert B. Hubbell
Robert - thanks for the shout-out for That's Another Fine Mess. Every little bit helps!
One of the reasons I left professional politics 41 years ago was that the fellow "professionals" I worked with had in their number way too many morons convinced they were geniuses. It's been my experience down here in Hollyweird that the same situation exists, the difference being that the only things the legends in their own minds fuck up here are movies and TV shows, which isn't quite on the level of managing to screw up the way a country operates because you are too damn stupid to figure out reality right in front of you.
Back in 1940, many high-ranking French officers were literally frozen and unable to act when they were confronted with the German blitzkrieg, since everything about it violated everything they "knew" was the proper way to run a war. Their minds blanked. That's what's happening with the pollsters who cannot understand that a "never before in history" event is not one that will be understandeable by the rules of a politics that comes from the Before Time.
I listened tonight to a really good interview the very smart Alex Wagner conducted this past weekend with California governor Gavin Newsom. He "gets" everything I was thinking about in the post I did that Robert recommended - having a relevant message, taking the fight to the people and confronting the enemy and calling them what they are, putting forward policy proposals that really will deal with the issues that the majority of people want to see us deal with. No wonder he's my favorite California governor after having to deal with the Amiable Dunce, then Governor Moonbeam (who turned out to be a zombie and showed up again after I thought we'd finally killed him off) and the execrable Gray "It's my turn" Davis - and all the Republican morons in between (but thank you Pete Wilson for finally turning the state blue with Prop 187). I recommend to everyone to go watch the interview. We may be looking at the political future there. Here it is on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zQjotJ0A1AQ
IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT: if you are interested in visiting That's Another Fine Mess, DO NOT click on the "writes That's Another Fine Mess" associated with this post. That is not the right address - it goes to a "zombie" site. I am working with Substack for them to fix the URL so it goes where it should. The correct URL for the real TAFM is https://tcinla757.substack.com/
One of the things we don't talk about enough is charisma. Gov Newsom has it in spades. While I know I am joined by millions of Democrats and Independents (whatever that is now) in wishing for a "diverse leader", I think the charisma factor is the winning hand.
I would LOVE to see us have a woman candidate of color who is gay and an avowed agnostic who is married to a trans Muslim from Sudan. More practically, I would love to see Pete Buttigieg as a candidate again. Or at least ANY really smart woman like Amy Klobuchar... You get my drift. Straight white men have been screwing things up for eons.
But we have not evolved enough to really respond fairly and evenly to intellect or demonstrated abilities regardless of sex, color, etc. We are still primitive beings who are attracted to "strong men".
Gavin Newsom could be the charismatic leader that JFK was. He could save the Union. Diversity may need to wait for another day. That being said, Corey Booker is a compelling speaker.
And the good news is, when you look at his record, Gavin Newsom has used his charisma to get in positions to do very good things for all those groups you mention. When he was mayor of San Francisco, he started performing gay marriages when it was still illegal after Prop 8. This pushed things politically toward the result that the California Supreme Court tossed out Prop 8. As governor he has been excellent on every issue of importance to people who read That's Another Fine Mess.
And he's a lot more solidly progressive than Corey Booker who (I was surprised to learn) isn't as solidly progressive as I had thought (Not that he's bad, he's just not as solid as I had thought).
Where is DNC Chairman Jaime Harrison on this critical issue of Dems taking control of the narrative? I would like to see Dems drive an aggressive campaign to put out the numbers, over and over again. Blue state vs Red on education, healthcare, violence, jobs, etc etc. By almost any measure, Democratic leadership has resulted in higher quality of life. Why can’t we shout it from the rooftops?
Frankly, I am not a Howard Dean fan. For the first two years I lived in Vermont, I honestly thought he was a Republican. A lot of folks were waiting for him to put his foot in his mouth. Eventually he did. It was sad, but it also revealed something about him. He did get VT started on moving toward universal health coverage, but he was also short-sighted in other ways.
Yes to all of that. The one very good thing he did do was the 50-state strategy when he ran the DNC. Campaign everywhere, make sure there's a Democratic candidate for every office, you can't win if you don't play. And that was what got Obama's victory with a 62-seat Senate and a strong House majority that allowed him to do Obamacare. And when he let Emanuel fire Dean and stop all that, he set his own defeat in motion.
I think it was more complex than that where Obama was concerned, but admit there are probably things I am not aware of. I saw Dean undercut himself as gov of VT, too. He did learn as he went, but he isn't really considered a go-to guy here.
We wouldn't be in this hole if Obama hadn't made the mistake of thinking Rahm Emanuel was an intelligent person and hired him as chief of staff so the first thing he could do was fire Howard Dean, end the 50-state strategy and mothball Obama For America just as the GOP wheeled out the Tea Party.
And... TC is also really entertaining!!!! :) I find myself smiling & chuckling & 'yeah' to his posts that often 'gut punch.' Would love to see him eviserate 'u know who' w passion & just 'raw truth ' not to mention other empty drama queens. Go TC & RH & HCR your voices & all the incredible & brilliant followers r blessings to us all.
TC, love getting your substack newsletters...and my husband, who hates reading anything political, delights in your writing. I always know when I forward to him that he will read it (he's from Colorado as well). Many thanks, and thanks, Robert, for continuing to share your space with shout outs to other publications.
YES!!! I loooooved the interview with Newsom and didn't erase the episode from my DVR. Always loved me some Alice Wagner, too; she gets out into the field and does actual journalism, asking real questions and pushes back, albeit charmingly.
Thanks for bringing up Newsom’s interview TC - it was great! He is a good leader who knows how to address the many thorny problems we face. It was interesting (and hopeful) to hear him discuss the rapport he’s developed with other US governors, who are interested in following his lead in their states. More state leaders need to speak out against the hypocrisy of what the GOP claims to be “for” versus what their actions, (or lack of actions for Americans), actually deliver - more power back to themselves to appoint conservative judges, exert control, and to receive the dark money that keeps this cycle in place.
Sep 28, 2022·edited Sep 28, 2022Liked by Robert B. Hubbell
It really is incredible to see so many male pundits (even on the left) claiming that abortion might not be such a big deal in the midterm elections. I suppose the women who know what it's like to have received devastating news at that 18-week ultrasound, or have been raped, or have gotten pregnant by an abusive partner who threatens their life if they keep the baby are all on board with Republican abortion bans? And what about protections for their daughters, sisters, and friends? Real disconnect.
ISL is just republican-speak for reinterpreting the constitution to justify their nonsense; they have been at this for awhile. It’s the reason The Heritage Foundation exists.
Independent State Legislature theory is being promoted by the Moore v Harper lawsuit, brought by House Speaker Tim Moore to allow the egregious gerrymandering of the Republican General Assembly to stand. Moore and his partner in crime, Phil Berger, Senate leader are only interested in their personal power and increasing their financial largesse.
Robert, I’m afraid you have over-simplified the independent state legislature theory by omitting mention of its idea that legislatures may set boundaries of congressional (and legislative) districts without oversight from a state’s courts. Thus, if a state (North Carolina, say) has an anti-gerrymandering provision in its constitution, the legislature would be free to ignore it, without review from the courts. Indeed, that is what the case before the Extreme Court is all about. If the Court sides with the legislature (that is, the Republican majority), democracy will be threatened gravely all across the nation. The case is so important that the organization of state supreme court chief justices has filed a friend-of-court brief arguing against the theory.
You write "without review from the courts" -- meaning "without review from state courts." The Constitution gives Congress the explicit power to override state regulations. Moore v. Harper is an important case, but it will not create state legislatures unbounded by the law. The will still answer to the Elections Clause and the Due Process and Equal Protection Clauses of the 14th amendment.
And to be clear, Moore v. Harper deals only with the "time, place, and manner" regulations for congressional elections. State courts will still be subject to anti-gerrymandering laws in a state constitution as they relate to state elections boundaries.
I confess that I have not read the papers in the case, nor the briefs, but from the press I was under the impression that the whole reason for the case was that the NC Supreme Court invalidated congressional district boundaries set by the legislature. The Brennan Center seems to agree. https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/moore-v-harper-explained
Yes; that is correct. My point is that Moore v Harper seeks only to insulate state legislatures from supervision by state courts when exercising power under the "time, place, and manner" clause. But that clause includes an express provision for Congressional preemption of state law. So, when we talk about the possible ramifications of Moore v. Harper, they are limited to the relations between state courts and state legislatures--not the ability of state legislatures to act without restraint from the Constitution or federal courts.
Local USPS OFFICES sell stamped postcards and the price is slightly lower than buying postcards and stamps separately and saves us the trouble of sticking on stamps. They are sold in packets which we are going to need because we will not be sending out just a few. If every Democrat in the country bought a packet of 100 and mailed them-LIKE WOW!
This is actually a strategy that is so old, it is new again as the song says.
"Dear Friend" is how it was originally developed. It was old when I was first introduced to it by my then-boss in the SF Board of Supes 50 years ago. It's based on the fact that people will respond more to something personal (it works best of all when the recommendation comes from someone they know, thus the name) than they do to campaign mailers and such. Campaign mailers mostly go straight from the mailbox to the trash can. The postcard will at a minimum get read before it gets tossed, and has a good likelihood of being kept for future reference.
When we used it, we got people who were in organizations supporting the campaign (unions, community groups, etc.) to take the postcards, which had a photo of the candidate and space for the person to write a note about why they were supporting him, which they would send to their friends and associates. It was a great way of community grassroots organizing. Those groups that still exist don't work that way anymore, so the way it's done now is a useful alternative.
It does work, it is very "vote efficient" so if you're doing it, you're not wasting your time.
Exactly! What got me started was a postcard my husband received reminding him about changing his registration so he could vote in the primary that year; I didn’t think about it too much at the time but it worked! And the AZ Native Democrats I write for share pictures of their recipients getting cards and how appreciative they are, and how it causes an uptick in inquiries about their registration, polling locations, etc.
Love writing postcards for NE AZ Native Dems and how they have us guide voters/potential voters to a local Native organizer.
I’m volunteering for a local candidate running a grassroots campaign for US House Rep opposing our long-entrenched TWG (Trumpster White Guy).Our Dem candidate has a space to write a note about why we support. Sound familiar TC ? It’s an uphill climb, but as Robert has commented …eventually we’ll win. And now I’m knocking on doors in Florida ! EVERY RACE COUNTS , TC!
You wrote for us too?! Thank you…that group is SO positive and organized. They had a Meet the Candidates on zoom a few weeks ago for some local candidates and it was so informative. If you didn’t know, we have some crazies running for office here! And kudos to you for knocking on doors…I assume Ian is slowing that down some? Stay safe
Gerry, I’ve been writing postcards and letters for over 2 years now; I use the pre-stamped a lot but really like ordering the fun, colorful voting-encouraged ones with the different designs. ..and don’t get me started about pens, it’s become my new obsession(I have to sneak them home in my purse to avoid the“do you really NEED more pens?!” comment) Anything for the Cause, right?!
Oh, Carol. You are a woman after my own heart! I LOVE colored pens. My dad used to use colored pencils. I guess I got the gene from him. He would be in seventh heaven with all the new gel pens we have now. Have you ever shopped at Jet Pens? They have everything.
I also love colored pens (and colors period). The sets I've bought on Amazon to use on my "Postcards to Voters" tend to dry out too soon. However I just did a quick visit to "Jet Pens" and am not sure it's legal for some of us to have open access to that website. Thank you for the referral! P.S. I hope you and your loved ones are safe from the storm caused by Hurricane Ian.
I went back to fountain pens because my hands can't take the pressure that ball points require, even gel pens. Love my inexpensive refillable fountain pens that are so easy on my hands: no pressure required! AND the outfit I buy from (Goulet Pens) sell ink samples in small tubes for a couple dollars or less, each good for at least two fillings. This has become my secret vice: I have about 2 dozen of those tubes in all kinds of colors. Writing used to be a chore, now it is a joy again. (Really fun to add little drawings, too!)
I’m not an expert in polling either. The early predictions of a Republican sweep in part was more grounded in past political history than in real time reality. Based on several articles I have read the polling this year has a few wrinkles such as the Dobbs decision and voter reactions to the decision plus follow up decisions by states to eliminate abortions entirely. There is no experience or baseline to effectively measure until after the election the impact this will have. Polls aside the only two things that matter are registration and voter turnout. That is what will win or lose elections. One bright shining light in all of this is the Democrats have a better slate of candidates this time and a larger number of women running for office. All of us need to help get out the vote in our communities and women once again have to save our country from tyranny.
Also, how questions are phrased have a huge influence on poll results (as well as how the sample is selected and how big it is). Somehow I got on the poll list for a conservative pollster(that was trying to sound middle of the road). I was trained in how to select samples and how to write questions that are neutral in tone, and these stood out as pretty leading. Each question had an implied assumption. I used to teach people how to identify polls that were simply collecting information, or were assessing whether you were worth keeping on the list, or might donate money. These are important things to be aware of, whether you are responding to a poll, or reading the results in the news or in opinion pieces. It's called self-protection, and it's a necessary skill. Especially these days.
My response somehow came above yours, TC. Let it be noted that your "Exactly right!" was in response to Stephan, as was mine! I agree with both of you.
Recently TFG has been lobbing insults at McConnell. Perhaps this support for the Electoral Count Reform Act is Mitch's little twitch of a payback? It can't be because of some solid principle of democracy or fairness. There is no space for such stuff in his ultra partisan rotten old noggin.
Best discussion of polls, polling, and pollsters I've seen. Of course, if any of them were to admit the fallacy of their assumptions, they'd lose the income they get from politicians and pundits who need "hard data" to back up their arguments. Maybe we can discuss economists and their assumptions next.
I am still concerned that some red states may still prospectively change their election laws to subvert the intent of that state’s voters and that would be acceptable under the proposed federal legislation
How would the one-man, one-vote ruling come into play? What’s the point of it if the vote has no effect? Could it be that a prospective state law to disenfranchise voters would comply with the new bill but not the Constitution?
So better than nothing but still a major chance for a malfeasant GOP legislature/governor to create federal protection for their act in contradiction to the Constitution.
I thought about that too. But I am still optimistic that the people would prefail. And I believe most state constitutions cannot be changed without the people approving, so that's a safeguard. I hope.
Thank you, Robert, for thinking of the Floridians among us. I live just south of Fort Myers, so I made sure to listen to your words for today as soon as I awoke; I expect to lose power in just a few hours.
I spent some time today checking in on you all. Fingers crossed. Last I heard they thought Ian was losing some energy, so less dramatic winds but probably more rain. Hope you're high enough to stay dry. Will be watching here, so please post back when you can.
Thank you so much! I was without Internet much of the day and now I'm without power, but I consider myself very fortunate. No other problems. You are so kind.
Knowing that Ted Cruz is thrilled by the hard right victory in Italy is of a piece with his semi-fascist admiration and support for Victor Orban and his love affair with Tucker Carlson. He ran for president in 2016. Let's remember and not forget what a disgrace the "most despised senator" is to the great state of Texas. He should head back to Cancun.
His college freshman dorm roommate (can't remember the name, he went on to do interesting stuff) recalled that several people back then were of the opinion that Rafael should be pushed out the third-floor dorm window. Too bad they didn't act on the idea.
Pollsters and hucksters share more than just the second syllable of their respective social constructs. I approach ANY poll-even those claiming a wide Democratic lead, with a few grains of salt. There is a lot of good speculation out there, and a lot of ill speculation as well. The only "poll" that counts is the actual vote.
The Italy vote is instructive, as the Brazil vote may well be-though likely in the other direction. The Italians have shown us what progressives should NOT do. Senhor Lula da Silva is showing us what progressives NEED to do.
As I keep saying, ignore the polls and keep working for the midterms. You can make statistics say whatever you want if you try hard enough. We CAN do this!!!!!
Exactly right!
I had a college professor who started her class on statistics with a book titled "How to Lie with Statistics". It was a great way to introduce the subject matter to this naive 19 year old.
"There are lies, damned lies, and then there are statistics." - Mark Twain
Robert - thanks for the shout-out for That's Another Fine Mess. Every little bit helps!
One of the reasons I left professional politics 41 years ago was that the fellow "professionals" I worked with had in their number way too many morons convinced they were geniuses. It's been my experience down here in Hollyweird that the same situation exists, the difference being that the only things the legends in their own minds fuck up here are movies and TV shows, which isn't quite on the level of managing to screw up the way a country operates because you are too damn stupid to figure out reality right in front of you.
Back in 1940, many high-ranking French officers were literally frozen and unable to act when they were confronted with the German blitzkrieg, since everything about it violated everything they "knew" was the proper way to run a war. Their minds blanked. That's what's happening with the pollsters who cannot understand that a "never before in history" event is not one that will be understandeable by the rules of a politics that comes from the Before Time.
I listened tonight to a really good interview the very smart Alex Wagner conducted this past weekend with California governor Gavin Newsom. He "gets" everything I was thinking about in the post I did that Robert recommended - having a relevant message, taking the fight to the people and confronting the enemy and calling them what they are, putting forward policy proposals that really will deal with the issues that the majority of people want to see us deal with. No wonder he's my favorite California governor after having to deal with the Amiable Dunce, then Governor Moonbeam (who turned out to be a zombie and showed up again after I thought we'd finally killed him off) and the execrable Gray "It's my turn" Davis - and all the Republican morons in between (but thank you Pete Wilson for finally turning the state blue with Prop 187). I recommend to everyone to go watch the interview. We may be looking at the political future there. Here it is on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zQjotJ0A1AQ
IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT: if you are interested in visiting That's Another Fine Mess, DO NOT click on the "writes That's Another Fine Mess" associated with this post. That is not the right address - it goes to a "zombie" site. I am working with Substack for them to fix the URL so it goes where it should. The correct URL for the real TAFM is https://tcinla757.substack.com/
Watched Newsom. Thanks for the link.
One of the things we don't talk about enough is charisma. Gov Newsom has it in spades. While I know I am joined by millions of Democrats and Independents (whatever that is now) in wishing for a "diverse leader", I think the charisma factor is the winning hand.
I would LOVE to see us have a woman candidate of color who is gay and an avowed agnostic who is married to a trans Muslim from Sudan. More practically, I would love to see Pete Buttigieg as a candidate again. Or at least ANY really smart woman like Amy Klobuchar... You get my drift. Straight white men have been screwing things up for eons.
But we have not evolved enough to really respond fairly and evenly to intellect or demonstrated abilities regardless of sex, color, etc. We are still primitive beings who are attracted to "strong men".
Gavin Newsom could be the charismatic leader that JFK was. He could save the Union. Diversity may need to wait for another day. That being said, Corey Booker is a compelling speaker.
And the good news is, when you look at his record, Gavin Newsom has used his charisma to get in positions to do very good things for all those groups you mention. When he was mayor of San Francisco, he started performing gay marriages when it was still illegal after Prop 8. This pushed things politically toward the result that the California Supreme Court tossed out Prop 8. As governor he has been excellent on every issue of importance to people who read That's Another Fine Mess.
And he's a lot more solidly progressive than Corey Booker who (I was surprised to learn) isn't as solidly progressive as I had thought (Not that he's bad, he's just not as solid as I had thought).
Where is DNC Chairman Jaime Harrison on this critical issue of Dems taking control of the narrative? I would like to see Dems drive an aggressive campaign to put out the numbers, over and over again. Blue state vs Red on education, healthcare, violence, jobs, etc etc. By almost any measure, Democratic leadership has resulted in higher quality of life. Why can’t we shout it from the rooftops?
You, me, and everyone else worried about the state of things would like an answer to this question.
Respectfully saying, he's been rather ineffectual. We need some Howard Dean right about NOW.
Frankly, I am not a Howard Dean fan. For the first two years I lived in Vermont, I honestly thought he was a Republican. A lot of folks were waiting for him to put his foot in his mouth. Eventually he did. It was sad, but it also revealed something about him. He did get VT started on moving toward universal health coverage, but he was also short-sighted in other ways.
Yes to all of that. The one very good thing he did do was the 50-state strategy when he ran the DNC. Campaign everywhere, make sure there's a Democratic candidate for every office, you can't win if you don't play. And that was what got Obama's victory with a 62-seat Senate and a strong House majority that allowed him to do Obamacare. And when he let Emanuel fire Dean and stop all that, he set his own defeat in motion.
I think it was more complex than that where Obama was concerned, but admit there are probably things I am not aware of. I saw Dean undercut himself as gov of VT, too. He did learn as he went, but he isn't really considered a go-to guy here.
We wouldn't be in this hole if Obama hadn't made the mistake of thinking Rahm Emanuel was an intelligent person and hired him as chief of staff so the first thing he could do was fire Howard Dean, end the 50-state strategy and mothball Obama For America just as the GOP wheeled out the Tea Party.
[sigh] I know. Maddening.
Or one could just subscribe to That's Another Fine Mess and get outstanding history as well as analysis for an entirely reasonable price.
Full Disclosure: I pay for my subscription and TC had nothing to do with this plug other than writing a great piece.
And... TC is also really entertaining!!!! :) I find myself smiling & chuckling & 'yeah' to his posts that often 'gut punch.' Would love to see him eviserate 'u know who' w passion & just 'raw truth ' not to mention other empty drama queens. Go TC & RH & HCR your voices & all the incredible & brilliant followers r blessings to us all.
Oh glory TC. I saw that and decided that Gavin is the voice to break us out of the morass. Thanks for the reminder, action item for many I hope.
TC, love getting your substack newsletters...and my husband, who hates reading anything political, delights in your writing. I always know when I forward to him that he will read it (he's from Colorado as well). Many thanks, and thanks, Robert, for continuing to share your space with shout outs to other publications.
Thank you for this news about your husband, Karen. If good writing can trump dislike of politics (a position I well understand), then we're good.
YES!!! I loooooved the interview with Newsom and didn't erase the episode from my DVR. Always loved me some Alice Wagner, too; she gets out into the field and does actual journalism, asking real questions and pushes back, albeit charmingly.
I think you mean Alex Wagner?
Old Fumble Fingers lurks everywhere, waiting to strike again. :-)
Yep.
Thanks for bringing up Newsom’s interview TC - it was great! He is a good leader who knows how to address the many thorny problems we face. It was interesting (and hopeful) to hear him discuss the rapport he’s developed with other US governors, who are interested in following his lead in their states. More state leaders need to speak out against the hypocrisy of what the GOP claims to be “for” versus what their actions, (or lack of actions for Americans), actually deliver - more power back to themselves to appoint conservative judges, exert control, and to receive the dark money that keeps this cycle in place.
It really is incredible to see so many male pundits (even on the left) claiming that abortion might not be such a big deal in the midterm elections. I suppose the women who know what it's like to have received devastating news at that 18-week ultrasound, or have been raped, or have gotten pregnant by an abusive partner who threatens their life if they keep the baby are all on board with Republican abortion bans? And what about protections for their daughters, sisters, and friends? Real disconnect.
ISL is just republican-speak for reinterpreting the constitution to justify their nonsense; they have been at this for awhile. It’s the reason The Heritage Foundation exists.
Independent State Legislature theory is being promoted by the Moore v Harper lawsuit, brought by House Speaker Tim Moore to allow the egregious gerrymandering of the Republican General Assembly to stand. Moore and his partner in crime, Phil Berger, Senate leader are only interested in their personal power and increasing their financial largesse.
Robert, I’m afraid you have over-simplified the independent state legislature theory by omitting mention of its idea that legislatures may set boundaries of congressional (and legislative) districts without oversight from a state’s courts. Thus, if a state (North Carolina, say) has an anti-gerrymandering provision in its constitution, the legislature would be free to ignore it, without review from the courts. Indeed, that is what the case before the Extreme Court is all about. If the Court sides with the legislature (that is, the Republican majority), democracy will be threatened gravely all across the nation. The case is so important that the organization of state supreme court chief justices has filed a friend-of-court brief arguing against the theory.
You write "without review from the courts" -- meaning "without review from state courts." The Constitution gives Congress the explicit power to override state regulations. Moore v. Harper is an important case, but it will not create state legislatures unbounded by the law. The will still answer to the Elections Clause and the Due Process and Equal Protection Clauses of the 14th amendment.
And to be clear, Moore v. Harper deals only with the "time, place, and manner" regulations for congressional elections. State courts will still be subject to anti-gerrymandering laws in a state constitution as they relate to state elections boundaries.
I confess that I have not read the papers in the case, nor the briefs, but from the press I was under the impression that the whole reason for the case was that the NC Supreme Court invalidated congressional district boundaries set by the legislature. The Brennan Center seems to agree. https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/moore-v-harper-explained
Yes; that is correct. My point is that Moore v Harper seeks only to insulate state legislatures from supervision by state courts when exercising power under the "time, place, and manner" clause. But that clause includes an express provision for Congressional preemption of state law. So, when we talk about the possible ramifications of Moore v. Harper, they are limited to the relations between state courts and state legislatures--not the ability of state legislatures to act without restraint from the Constitution or federal courts.
Local USPS OFFICES sell stamped postcards and the price is slightly lower than buying postcards and stamps separately and saves us the trouble of sticking on stamps. They are sold in packets which we are going to need because we will not be sending out just a few. If every Democrat in the country bought a packet of 100 and mailed them-LIKE WOW!
This is actually a strategy that is so old, it is new again as the song says.
"Dear Friend" is how it was originally developed. It was old when I was first introduced to it by my then-boss in the SF Board of Supes 50 years ago. It's based on the fact that people will respond more to something personal (it works best of all when the recommendation comes from someone they know, thus the name) than they do to campaign mailers and such. Campaign mailers mostly go straight from the mailbox to the trash can. The postcard will at a minimum get read before it gets tossed, and has a good likelihood of being kept for future reference.
When we used it, we got people who were in organizations supporting the campaign (unions, community groups, etc.) to take the postcards, which had a photo of the candidate and space for the person to write a note about why they were supporting him, which they would send to their friends and associates. It was a great way of community grassroots organizing. Those groups that still exist don't work that way anymore, so the way it's done now is a useful alternative.
It does work, it is very "vote efficient" so if you're doing it, you're not wasting your time.
Exactly! What got me started was a postcard my husband received reminding him about changing his registration so he could vote in the primary that year; I didn’t think about it too much at the time but it worked! And the AZ Native Democrats I write for share pictures of their recipients getting cards and how appreciative they are, and how it causes an uptick in inquiries about their registration, polling locations, etc.
Love writing postcards for NE AZ Native Dems and how they have us guide voters/potential voters to a local Native organizer.
I’m volunteering for a local candidate running a grassroots campaign for US House Rep opposing our long-entrenched TWG (Trumpster White Guy).Our Dem candidate has a space to write a note about why we support. Sound familiar TC ? It’s an uphill climb, but as Robert has commented …eventually we’ll win. And now I’m knocking on doors in Florida ! EVERY RACE COUNTS , TC!
You wrote for us too?! Thank you…that group is SO positive and organized. They had a Meet the Candidates on zoom a few weeks ago for some local candidates and it was so informative. If you didn’t know, we have some crazies running for office here! And kudos to you for knocking on doors…I assume Ian is slowing that down some? Stay safe
That's very good.
Gerry, I’ve been writing postcards and letters for over 2 years now; I use the pre-stamped a lot but really like ordering the fun, colorful voting-encouraged ones with the different designs. ..and don’t get me started about pens, it’s become my new obsession(I have to sneak them home in my purse to avoid the“do you really NEED more pens?!” comment) Anything for the Cause, right?!
Oh, Carol. You are a woman after my own heart! I LOVE colored pens. My dad used to use colored pencils. I guess I got the gene from him. He would be in seventh heaven with all the new gel pens we have now. Have you ever shopped at Jet Pens? They have everything.
I also love colored pens (and colors period). The sets I've bought on Amazon to use on my "Postcards to Voters" tend to dry out too soon. However I just did a quick visit to "Jet Pens" and am not sure it's legal for some of us to have open access to that website. Thank you for the referral! P.S. I hope you and your loved ones are safe from the storm caused by Hurricane Ian.
c c, very funny…. Retirement check will be coming soon, will visit Jet Pens then!
I admire your restraint. Have fun! : )
Couldn’t stand it…bookmarked the site; something to look forward to this week-end!
Too funny. Believe me, I’ve had that thought myself.
I went back to fountain pens because my hands can't take the pressure that ball points require, even gel pens. Love my inexpensive refillable fountain pens that are so easy on my hands: no pressure required! AND the outfit I buy from (Goulet Pens) sell ink samples in small tubes for a couple dollars or less, each good for at least two fillings. This has become my secret vice: I have about 2 dozen of those tubes in all kinds of colors. Writing used to be a chore, now it is a joy again. (Really fun to add little drawings, too!)
I tend to go to Staples as I like to actually hold the packages! Will Jet Pens be the death of me?! Ok, I will try them🤪
I’m not an expert in polling either. The early predictions of a Republican sweep in part was more grounded in past political history than in real time reality. Based on several articles I have read the polling this year has a few wrinkles such as the Dobbs decision and voter reactions to the decision plus follow up decisions by states to eliminate abortions entirely. There is no experience or baseline to effectively measure until after the election the impact this will have. Polls aside the only two things that matter are registration and voter turnout. That is what will win or lose elections. One bright shining light in all of this is the Democrats have a better slate of candidates this time and a larger number of women running for office. All of us need to help get out the vote in our communities and women once again have to save our country from tyranny.
Also, how questions are phrased have a huge influence on poll results (as well as how the sample is selected and how big it is). Somehow I got on the poll list for a conservative pollster(that was trying to sound middle of the road). I was trained in how to select samples and how to write questions that are neutral in tone, and these stood out as pretty leading. Each question had an implied assumption. I used to teach people how to identify polls that were simply collecting information, or were assessing whether you were worth keeping on the list, or might donate money. These are important things to be aware of, whether you are responding to a poll, or reading the results in the news or in opinion pieces. It's called self-protection, and it's a necessary skill. Especially these days.
Exactly right!
My response somehow came above yours, TC. Let it be noted that your "Exactly right!" was in response to Stephan, as was mine! I agree with both of you.
Recently TFG has been lobbing insults at McConnell. Perhaps this support for the Electoral Count Reform Act is Mitch's little twitch of a payback? It can't be because of some solid principle of democracy or fairness. There is no space for such stuff in his ultra partisan rotten old noggin.
Yeah. Turns out El Jefe is learning that Payback is indeed a bitch.
Exactly what I’ve been thinking.
..."because they are neo-fascists in waiting. " With all due respect Mr. Hubbell I don't believe they are waiting.
Best discussion of polls, polling, and pollsters I've seen. Of course, if any of them were to admit the fallacy of their assumptions, they'd lose the income they get from politicians and pundits who need "hard data" to back up their arguments. Maybe we can discuss economists and their assumptions next.
I am still concerned that some red states may still prospectively change their election laws to subvert the intent of that state’s voters and that would be acceptable under the proposed federal legislation
Yes; that could happen and would be constitutional.
How would the one-man, one-vote ruling come into play? What’s the point of it if the vote has no effect? Could it be that a prospective state law to disenfranchise voters would comply with the new bill but not the Constitution?
So better than nothing but still a major chance for a malfeasant GOP legislature/governor to create federal protection for their act in contradiction to the Constitution.
I thought about that too. But I am still optimistic that the people would prefail. And I believe most state constitutions cannot be changed without the people approving, so that's a safeguard. I hope.
Thank you, Robert, for thinking of the Floridians among us. I live just south of Fort Myers, so I made sure to listen to your words for today as soon as I awoke; I expect to lose power in just a few hours.
You are in our thoughts. Please be careful!
Please be careful!! Prayers for your safety this week.
Good thoughts coming your way. I am just north of Tampa. Probably won’t be as bad here but my daughter evacuated to my house from Pinellas.
I spent some time today checking in on you all. Fingers crossed. Last I heard they thought Ian was losing some energy, so less dramatic winds but probably more rain. Hope you're high enough to stay dry. Will be watching here, so please post back when you can.
Thank you so much! I was without Internet much of the day and now I'm without power, but I consider myself very fortunate. No other problems. You are so kind.
Pat
I'm really glad. Going to do a quick news check on Ian before bed. Take care, and thanks for checking in.
Chris Kise, not Krise
From Denialad. donbialostosky.substack.com
Trump’s benched his three million dollar lawyer,
Who must not have pleased his new employer.
One wag has speculated that Chris Kise
Gave Trump some reasonable legal advice
And that was all it took to get him cut.
Trump was much happier to have a nut
Like Giuliani, who told him he won
And made such a ridiculous bull run
That he’s lost his lawyerly bona fides.
Perhaps Kise is a legal sobersides
Who wouldn’t say in court what Trump Truths out:
He wouldn’t take a chance and go all out
To say the docs were all declassified,
And maybe balked at claiming the Feds tried
To plant incriminating things among
Trump’s papers. That refusal must have stung.
After Kise won Trump the special master,
His legal cases ended in disaster.
The special master Dearie called his bluff
And the circuit court justices were tough
On Trump, his lawyers, and his loyal judge,
And now that it is clear the courts won’t budge,
Someone other than Trump must take the blame;
So he is taking Kise out of the game.
Knowing that Ted Cruz is thrilled by the hard right victory in Italy is of a piece with his semi-fascist admiration and support for Victor Orban and his love affair with Tucker Carlson. He ran for president in 2016. Let's remember and not forget what a disgrace the "most despised senator" is to the great state of Texas. He should head back to Cancun.
His college freshman dorm roommate (can't remember the name, he went on to do interesting stuff) recalled that several people back then were of the opinion that Rafael should be pushed out the third-floor dorm window. Too bad they didn't act on the idea.
I secretly have thoughts like that from time to time. Don't tell anybody. It'll spoil my goody goody rep.
Good to know you can be "dangerous." :-)
You betcha, TC! (You should know...)
Pollsters and hucksters share more than just the second syllable of their respective social constructs. I approach ANY poll-even those claiming a wide Democratic lead, with a few grains of salt. There is a lot of good speculation out there, and a lot of ill speculation as well. The only "poll" that counts is the actual vote.
The Italy vote is instructive, as the Brazil vote may well be-though likely in the other direction. The Italians have shown us what progressives should NOT do. Senhor Lula da Silva is showing us what progressives NEED to do.
Just submitted my order for 100 postcards. Thanks for posting this opportunity.