A lot going on!

April 11, 2022

[Audio version here]

          There has been a dizzying array of developments on the domestic and international fronts in the last forty-eight hours. And as we draw closer to election season, the drumbeat of negative articles predicting disaster for Democrats is quickening. Here is the most important takeaway: The political, social, and national security landscapes are changing rapidly. Anyone who claims they can predict what will happen six months hence lacks self-awareness and humility. The best way to shape the future is to focus on the factors we can control and not waste unnecessary energy worrying about factors not under our control. With that lens, let’s take a look at the developments over the weekend.

Florida’s Don’t Say Gay bill metastasizes.

          Republican governors are engaged in a race to the bottom as they fall all over themselves to mimic Florida’s “Don’t Say Gay” bill. Per NPR, a dozen states have proposed copycat legislation, including Alabama, Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, Louisiana, Missouri, Indiana, Kentucky, Oklahoma, Ohio, Tennessee, and (of course) Texas. The law passed in Florida (in part) because corporations sat on the sidelines, pretending that a bill stigmatizing a significant portion of their workforce was not a matter worthy of their lobbying efforts.

          The Disney Corporation learned the hard way that failing to protect its workers is bad for business. Let’s not allow corporations in other states to make the same mistakes. If you are an executive, employee, or customer of a business in one of the states identified above, make your voice heard now and demand that company leadership take a clear stand on copycat bills.

          And here is a point that might help you convince corporate leaders that allowing states to prohibit discussion of LGBTQ+ people is un-American: Russia developed and implemented legislation in 2013 that prohibits the distribution of “propaganda” regarding non-traditional sexual relationships. As implemented, the law has been used to ban, harass, and criminalize discussion of LGBTQ+ people in education, social media, mental health services, and mainstream media. See Mark Gevisser in NYTimes (12/27/2013),  Opinion | Life Under Russia’s ‘Gay Propaganda’ Ban and Human Rights Watch (2017),  Russia’s “Gay Propaganda” Law Imperils LGBT Youth.

          Once the state imposes criminal sanctions against teachers for discussing human sexuality, it’s a slippery slope to state censorship of all speech. For example, a Russian teacher was fired for saying that Ukraine is a separate country—a comment she made after her students asked why Russia was banned from international sports competitions. Business Insider, Russian Teacher Turned in by Student, Fired, Fined for Ukraine Comment.

          Let’s stop the madness. Fight efforts by additional states to pass copycat “Don’t Say Gay” bills.

Woman in Texas arrested, indicted for murder, for inducing abortion.

          Texas law does not allow the criminal prosecution of a woman who receives an abortion. Nonetheless, when a woman sought medical care after a self-induced abortion, the healthcare facility where she sought medical treatment reported her to the police, who arrested her for murder. A grand jury then indicted her for murder. A judge ordered her jailed on a $500,000 bond. Activists showed up at the jail, demanding her release because her actions did not violate Texas criminal law. On Sunday, the District Attorney for Rio Grande City announced that her actions were “not a criminal matter” and would seek dismissal of the indictment on Monday. See The Guardian, Murder charges dropped against Texas woman for ‘self-induced abortion’.

          Texas passed a vigilante law designed to harass and punish women who seek abortions. As a result, local medical staff, police, a grand jury, and a judge all misapplied Texas law to wrongfully arrest, imprison, and indict a woman for violating a criminal law that did not exist. What happened in Rio Grand City was not a mistake—it is the point of the Texas vigilante anti-abortion law. The FBI and DOJ should investigate the justice system in Rio Grande City from top to bottom to determine why dozens of people felt empowered to violate rights currently protected by the U.S. Constitution under the still-valid case of Roe v. Wade.

Jennifer Rubin makes the case that Merrick Garland is investigating the insurrection and the coup.

          Jennifer Rubin summarizes the available evidence suggesting that Merrick Garland is finally investigating Trump for his role in the insurrection and the coup. See Jennifer Rubin in WaPo, Opinion | We don’t know much about the DOJ’s Jan. 6 inquiry. Here are 4 things we do know. Americans should take comfort in the facts cited by Ms. Rubin. The proof she cites is contained in articles dated March 31st (WaPo) and April 5th (NYTimes). Let’s hope that the grand jury has been secretly working in the background long before the dates of those articles. And, as Ms. Rubin notes,

          [N]one of this means that the Justice Department is acting with a sufficient sense of urgency. The rationale that the feds have to start at the bottom and work their way up — as though this were a Mafia case — makes no sense.

          Agree 100%!

Don Jr. laid out the coup plot in November 2020.

          Over the weekend, CNN reported that Don Jr. laid out the plan for overthrowing the 2020 election on November 5th, 2020—only two days after Election Day. Per CNN,

The November 5 text message outlines a strategy that is nearly identical to what allies of the former President attempted to carry out in the months that followed. Trump Jr. makes specific reference to . . . having a handful of Republican statehouses put forward slates of fake “Trump electors.”

          Whether Don Jr.’s texts make him a co-conspirator in the coup is a judgment that should be left to Merrick Garland. But history should record that the President’s son urged the overthrow of the 2020 election before the votes were counted.

January 6th Committee has enough evidence for criminal referral for Trump.

          There is a flurry of competing stories about whether the January 6th Committee will refer Trump to the DOJ for prosecution. A referral is both unnecessary and a distraction. The Committee should present its evidence to the American people in a straightforward and honest presentation. Merrick Garland will be watching and (probably) taking notes. See Politico, Cheney says Jan. 6 committee has enough evidence for a criminal referral for Trump.

The “gift log” is missing for the final year of the Trump presidency.

          The “gift logs” documenting gifts from foreign leaders and nations to Trump and Pence for 2020 are missing. That information comes from a report by the State Department to be published in the Federal Register this week. Although the State Department acknowledges that the absence of information might be due to an oversight, the report also states there was a “lack of adequate recordkeeping pertaining to diplomatic gifts” during Trump’s entire tenure.

          Of course, no Republicans will care about the obvious implications of corruption suggested by the missing gift logs, but they will review Hunter Biden’s business transactions with a fine-tooth comb!

Trumpworld turning on Trump (or his advisers)?

          Trump’s greatest con was convincing uneducated, blue-collar workers that a Manhattan real-estate tycoon was one of their own who would “drain the swamp” of wealthy elites who look down on the working class. Last week, Trump endorsed Dr. Oz for the GOP nomination in the Pennsylvania race for U.S. Senate. Trump’s supporters reacted with anger over the endorsement of a wealthy, show-biz elite who holds degrees from Harvard, Penn Medical School, and Wharton. See Talking Points Memo, Trumpworld Implodes Over Ex-POTUS’ Endorsement Of Dr. Oz.

          The endorsement was so unpopular that some Trump supporters speculate that Trump’s staff is trying to sabotage his 2024 run for President by recommending that he endorse candidates who are the antithesis of MAGA-world’s “drain the swamp” mantra. Good.

Ukraine.

          The situation in Ukraine is becoming even more dire. Last Friday, Russia attacked the Kramatorsk train station, which served as a gathering point for civilians fleeing the country. At least 50 people were killed and dozens more injured. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said over the weekend that the plan to target civilians came from the ‘highest levels’ of the Russian government. Although Sullivan’s comments related to the plan to target specific civilians, once the decision is made to kill civilians to achieve military objectives, it is a line that becomes easy to cross for soldiers in the field. No wonder that 4.5 million Ukrainians have fled the country.

          The media is filled with reports of a  coming massive assault by Russia in the Eastern part of the country. Putin appointed a new commander, General Alexander Dvornikov, who “has a record of brutality against civilians in Syria,” according to U.S. officials. A reader sent a link to an interview with one of Putin’s closest advisers in Corriere della Sera, Sergey Karaganov: “We are at war with the West. The European security order is illegitimate.” The reader offers a synopsis of the article as follows:

This is very important. Karaganov signals that Putin is doubling down in Ukraine, will tough out the sanctions, and lean more on China. Putin rejects diplomacy and seeks to resolve the crisis on the battlefield. He remains determined to change the current European security architecture to suit Russia and seeks to destroy the Zelenskyy regime and partition Ukraine.

          But Russia is struggling to “recruit” (read: conscript) new troops, offering rewards to Russian soldiers to return to Ukraine after withdrawing from the northern region. “Traffic inspectors” in Russia are “issu[ing] on-the-spot conscription notices” at roadblocks. Previously ineligible groups are being conscripted, including those with childhood disabilities and workers in protected industries. Police are seizing and destroying documents that grant exemptions from conscription, including medical exemptions and work certificates. For a description of the above recruiting measures, see Institute for the Study of War, Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 10.

          The next few weeks will be decisive. Let’s hope that aid from the U.S and NATO arrives in time to help the Ukrainian people defend themselves against Putin’s war of attrition against a civilian population.

Concluding Thoughts.

          I read a lengthy article discussing how the “youth vote” for Biden is “wobbling” because of Biden's declining favorability ratings among that cohort after 2020. The article discusses at length how young people feel about their lives and prospects (unhappy) but barely mentions the issues that might make their lives better. The thesis in the article is that, “Right now, [youth] say they’ll vote — but if Democrats and Republicans ignore them, they won’t turn out.”

          Sigh . . . Okay. So, like everyone else, young voters feel stressed, which is (supposedly) bad news for Democrats. It would have been interesting (but more work for the author) if the article discussed the issues affecting young voters and their reactions to those issues. Like student loan debt. Or extended unemployment benefits. Or free college education. Or reproductive freedom. Or efforts to address the climate crisis. Or efforts to require corporations and billionaires to pay more in taxes so middle-class wage earners can pay less. Or efforts to tell them that their gender identity and sexual orientation are verboten subjects in school. And then the author could have gone one step further and asked young voters which side of those issues Democrats are on and which side Republicans are on—and who is listening to them. But nope! That would have ruined a perfectly crafted negative story about the sky falling on Democrats in 2022.

          Just like statistics, it is easy to lie with polling. At some point, young voters will walk into a polling booth and make a real-life decision about who represents their interests. Until then, polling that reflects general unhappiness with the sorry state of politics in America seems (to me) to be self-evident but unhelpful in instructing Democrats how to campaign in 2022. Look at the list in the prior paragraph and ask yourself whether Democrats are on the wrong side of those issues for young voters—or any voters in America.

          Democrats are on the right side of every issue listed above. All we need to do is to communicate that message to voters—and not be distracted by polling designed to allow respondents to vent their frustrations. Stay focused. We have every reason to be hopeful, but no reason to be complacent!

          Talk to you tomorrow!