A default as Trump's campaign strategy

May 23, 2023

          The debt ceiling negotiations made no apparent progress on Monday. According to Kevin McCarthy, the “tone” of the discussions “improved,” but “improved tone” and $2.65 will buy you a cup of coffee at Starbucks. As Trump's legal jeopardy increases by the day, his motivation for urging a default is coming into sharper focus: An economic disaster would create chaos and unsettle the 2024 presidential race. A chaos-fueled race may be his only chance to win despite multiple indictments.

          As Dennis Aftergut writes in The Bulwark

[Trump] has a purely self-serving reason to seek an economic catastrophe. You don’t need to be a stable genius to know that a bad economy typically hurts the incumbent in a presidential race. And Trump is desperate to get the immunity from prosecution that being elected president would provide him. He’s terrified of what’s coming from Special Counsel Jack Smith. So he’ll apparently nuke the world economy to protect himself.

          Trump's new-found willingness to urge a default is motivated by the desire to obtain a partisan political advantage, as he admitted to Kaitlan Collins during CNN’s hour-long rally for Trump. Aftergut reminds us of the following exchange:

Collins: You once said that using the . . . debt ceiling as a negotiating wedge just could not happen. You—you said that when you were in the Oval Office.

Trump: Sure, that’s when I was president.

Collins: So why is it different now that you’re out of office?

Trump: Because now I’m not president.

          Trump and his Republican supporters do not care about the American people, the economy, or political principles. They want to hurt Joe Biden’s chances for reelection. If hundreds of millions of Americans and millions of American businesses are damaged in the process, Republicans will view that as a fair trade.

          If Trump and Republicans believe that economic chaos is a “win” for the GOP brand and a “loss” for Biden going into 2024, they are underestimating the American people. That has always been a losing bet—and it will be in 2024 if Republicans refuse to raise the debt ceiling.

Trump's increasing legal jeopardy.

          Anonymous sources reported to the New York Times that special counsel Jack Smith issued a subpoena to The Trump Organization for evidence of Trump's foreign business dealings after Trump was elected president. See NYTimes, Prosecutors Sought Records on Trump’s Foreign Business Deals Since 2017.

Notably, the subpoena was issued by the grand jury investigating Trump's unlawful retention of national defense documents. A reasonable inference is that Jack Smith is attempting to determine if Trump retained defense documents to benefit foreign business partners. While potentially explosive, there is no indication that any such connection exists.

          In another story based on anonymous sources, The Guardian reports that Trump's attorney, Evan Corcoran, told Trump “that he could not retain any classified documents after he was subpoenaed for their return.” That legal advice was recorded in Corcoran’s handwritten notes obtained by special counsel Jack Smith. See The Guardian, Trump was warned about retaining classified documents, notes reveal. If true, that warning would rebut Trump's defense that he believed he had the right to retain the documents.

          Finally, E. Jean Carroll has amended a second pending federal lawsuit for defamation against Donald Trump to include the defamatory statements made by Trump during CNN’s townhall/rally for Trump two weeks ago. The defamatory statements were made three days after a jury returned a verdict against Trump that included $5 million in compensatory and punitive damages for making nearly identical statements.

By amending her existing federal lawsuit to refer to the townhall statements, Carroll can rely on the recent statements to support a sizable punitive damages award against Trump. See The Hill, E. Jean Carroll adds Trump’s CNN town hall remarks to defamation suit.

          The E. Jean Carroll development will be a “natural experiment” to determine if Trump is capable of understanding that actions have consequences. I vote “No.” Trump will continue to defame E. Jean Carroll even though each new instance of defamation will increase his punitive damages exposure by millions of dollars.  

          As to the other two developments, while I welcome the reporting based on anonymous sources about Jack Smith’s investigation, he is running out of time. The most likely scenario is that Trump will be indicted this year and engaged in criminal proceedings during the 2024 general election. That will be bad for the nation. We should be long past relying on leaks from anonymous sources to sustain our hope that Trump will be held to account for his crimes.

          [Side note: Many people assume that “leaks” from anonymous sources about Jack Smith’s investigation come from lawyers working for Jack Smith. Although that is possible, I doubt it. The more likely scenario is that people working in the Trump Organization and seeking to curry favor with the press are the source of the leaks.]

Civil rights organizations issue travel advisories regarding Florida; DeSantis proves their point.

          Several prominent civil rights organizations have issued travel advisories to their members warning about the dangers of travel to Florida. Per Vox,

On Saturday, the NAACP joined the League of United Latin American Citizens (LULAC), a Latino rights advocacy group, and Equality Florida, an LGBTQ rights advocacy group, in issuing Florida travel advisories. The NAACP warned that Florida had become “openly hostile toward African Americans, people of color, and LGBTQ+ individuals,” highlighting its attacks on the teaching of Black history and on diversity, equity, and inclusion programs in public schools.

          To prove the point that Florida is hostile to Black Americans, DeSantis called the NAACP warnings a “stunt” and a “joke.” The Florida GOP Chair, Christian Zeigler, offered to pay for moving expenses for the Chairman of the Board of the NAACP to move out of Florida. Zeigler tweeted:

True leadership is being willing to do what you ask others to do… time to step up and MOVE. If you think our state is so bad, the @FloridaGOP will help with moving costs.

          While Christian Zeigler undoubtedly believed his “zinger” was “hilarious,” it betrays the animus that prompted the travel advisory. The NAACP is not calling for anyone to move out of Florida. Indeed, in an interview with Rachel Maddow on Monday evening, Leon Russell, NAACP Board Chair, made the point that the NAACP is not calling on Floridians to move out of Florida but is instead urging them to remain in Florida to reclaim democracy in the state.

          Meanwhile, DeSantis’s offer of $13 million in signing bonuses to attract more police officers to work in Florida has resulted in an uptick in applicants with violent records. See The Guardian, DeSantis’s $13.5m police program lures officers with violent records to Florida. Per The Guardian,

          Numerous police officers lured to new jobs in Florida with cash from Governor Ron DeSantis’s flagship law enforcement relocation program have histories of excessive violence or have been arrested for crimes including kidnapping and murder since signing up, a study of state documents has found.

          Given the recent hiring practices of Florida’s law enforcement agencies, it is understandable why groups targeted by Florida’s legislature would advise caution in traveling to Florida.

Nebraska passes abortion ban and prohibition against gender-affirming medical procedures for people under nineteen.

          Nebraska passed a bill prohibiting abortion if the “probable gestational age of the fetus has been determined to be twelve or more weeks.” The bill defines gestational age “as calculated from the first day of the last menstrual period of the pregnant woman”—meaning that gestational age includes two weeks during which a woman is not pregnant. Thus, Nebraska’s “twelve-week ban” is a ten-week ban after conception.

          Nebraska has also decided that the state is in a better position than are the parents and physicians caring for a transgender child to determine what medical treatment is appropriate. Nebraska’s law amounts to nothing less than state-sanctioned discrimination based on sex and gender. It intrudes on the most personal and private family decisions imaginable. And it does so because of a warped view of Christianity. Future generations will look back on the Nebraska legislators with the same disgust and opprobrium currently reserved for Southern legislators who passed Jim Crow laws after the Civil War. Shame, shame, shame!

Montana prohibits consideration of climate effects in legislation.

          It has become increasingly difficult to ignore the science and evidence of the climate crisis that is hard upon us. So, Montana Republicans have developed a novel way of dealing with indisputable evidence of human-caused climate change: They passed a law prohibiting state agencies from “considering” climate change when permitting new projects. Per Mother Jones,

Montana Republican lawmakers have passed legislation that bars state agencies from considering climate change when permitting large projects that require environmental reviews, including coal mines and power plants. Gov. Greg Gianforte signed the bill last week, marking what could be considered the nation’s most aggressive anti-climate law.

          Montana will be a crucial state in 2024. Field Team 6 has identified Montana as one of its “Target States” for 2024—in part because of the anti-climate, anti-science stance of the Montana legislature and governor. Field Team 6 will work to help reelect Senator Jon Tester, defeat Republican Governor Gianforte, and flip important state legislative seats. Field Team 6 is raising funds to “Adopt Montana” and elect pro-climate Democrats. Click on the link if you would like to help!

31^st Street/Swing Left event to elect Democrats in Arizona and Michigan.

          I received the following note from Mary Pence of 31^st Street/Swing Left inviting readers to join an informational session/fundraiser by Zoom:

          On Tuesday, May 30th, at 7:00 pm Eastern, 31st Street Swing Left will host a presentation and fundraiser to help the Michigan and Arizona Democratic Parties to engage the expertise of DEMpower Labs as they prepare for the 2024 election cycle.

          The event will feature a presentation and Q&A session with Kim Allen of DEMpower Labs, which supports Democratic state parties with the nuts and bolts of election organization and voter protection programs, from recruiting staff to facilitating planning, ongoing coaching, and support. 

          To register and obtain the Zoom link for the Zoom event, write to marypence58@gmail.com.

Concluding Thoughts.

          I don’t know how the debt ceiling negotiations will resolve. I know that there is no one I trust more than Joe Biden at this perilous moment in our nation’s history.

          Talk to you tomorrow!