A consequential week ahead.

June 29, 2026

Most of the news over the last 72 hours relates to the rapidly deteriorating situation in the Middle East, as the US and Iran exchanged fire (sometimes directed at third parties) over Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz. I will take the opportunity of the relative lull in the usual firehose of news to publish a shorter newsletter ahead of a consequential week in the Supreme Court.

The Court’s current term officially ends on June 30, 2026. Most (but not necessarily all) of the eight remaining opinions should be issued by Tuesday. Those cases will address

• whether states may count ballots mailed before Election Day but received up to five days thereafter;

• whether birthright citizenship applies to every person born in the United States or can be limited by presidential order;

• whether transgender athletes can compete on girls’ sports teams; and

• whether the president has unfettered authority to fire heads of independent agencies without cause.

See generally, Chris Geidner, Law Dork (Substack), Eight Supreme Court cases remaining (with links to articles on each case).

Trump should lose on all cases in which he is involved, but the counting of ballots mailed before but received after “Election Day” gives the reactionary majority another opportunity to approve a voter suppression tactic shortly before the midterms.

We should keep in mind two caveats if the Court further restricts voting rights.

First, 36 states already require that mail ballots be received on or before Election Day to be counted. Only 14 states allow a “grace period” for acceptance of domestic ballots mailed before election day but received thereafter. (An additional 15 states allow for the late arrival of military and overseas ballots.) See National Conference of State Legislatures, Receipt and Postmark Deadlines for Absentee/Mail Ballots (as of 5/18/2026).

In general, a loss on the Election Day case will result in changes in 14 states. Five of those states voted for Trump in 2024 (Alaska, Mississippi, Nevada, Texas, West Virginia), and nine voted for Harris (California, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Virginia, Washington).

Although the burden of a loss in the Election Day case will fall disproportionately on nine blue states, Texas has the second-largest electorate in the nation, and Alaska’s citizens face greater obstacles than many other voters because of distance and a lack of roads in remote areas. Moreover, more than 220,000 US military personnel and contractors are stationed overseas; a ruling that ballots must be “received by Election Day” will effectively shorten their voting time, thereby imposing a penalty on members of the military.

Another mitigating factor: About 50% of “mail ballots” are returned via “drop boxes” (not US mail boxes). Ballots in drop boxes are collected on election day. See Election Administration and Voting Survey 2024 Comprehensive Report (“Nearly 15 million mail ballots were returned at ballot drop boxes in the 36 states that allow for drop boxes, which account for just under half of the ballots returned in these states.”)

The second point is that voter suppression is a blunt instrument. Even in blue states like California and New York, millions of Republicans vote by mail. An adverse ruling in the Election Day case will likewise affect tens of millions of Republicans currently eligible to mail ballots postmarked on Election Day.

Democrats are better positioned to overcome voter suppression tactics because they are more frequently the target of such tactics.

While a loss in the Election Day case would be outrageous and unconstitutional, we should not react to such a loss by proclaiming that Democrats will fail to take back the House and Senate in November. Instead, we must begin the hard work of changing voter behavior when they vote by mail. We can do that.

Stay tuned. The decision will be issued soon.

The deteriorating situation in the Middle East

Last Friday, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard fired on a tanker that failed to follow the shipping lanes prescribed by Iran. The US attacked Iranian missile and drone sites on the Persian Gulf, and Iran retaliated by launching multiple attacks on Bahrain and Kuwait over the weekend.

An anonymous source in the US government is telling media outlets that the US and Iran have agreed to “stand down” from the active hostilities and that Iran will allow traffic to flow “freely” through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has not confirmed the statement by the anonymous US source. See NYTimes, Iran Strikes U.S. Sites in Bahrain and Kuwait as Attacks Show Few Signs of De-escalation.

As usual, Trump is pouring gasoline on a volatile situation. See CNN, Iran talks stall after fighting erupts, Trump threatens annihilation.

Per CNN, Trump posted the following:

There may come a point when we are no longer able to be reasonable and will be forced to militarily complete the job that we very successfully started. If that happens, the Islamic Republic of Iran will no longer exist!

As a public service reminder, the Geneva Convention (and supplementary treaties) and international law make it a crime to threaten civilian populations, which is a fair reading of Trump’s statement that “Iran will no longer exist.” But Trump has committed (or ordered) so many war crimes, no media are commenting on Trump’s latest threat against Iranian civilians.

Iran apparently canceled “technical talks” on Sunday, but the anonymous US source claims that such talks will continue at some point in the future.

Per the Times,

The official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss ongoing negotiations, said technical talks are slated to continue on the memorandum of understanding, but declined to provide any specifics on when or where those talks would occur.

In sum, active hostilities have resumed, Iran canceled peace talks scheduled for Sunday, an anonymous US source says everything is fine, and the last statement from Iran was a barrage of missiles aimed at Kuwait and Bahrain.

Opportunities for Reader Engagement

Join Markers For Democracy, Downtown Nasty Women Social Group, and Team Min on Tuesday, June 30 at 10 am ET for a conversation with Ben Wikler, Former Chair of the Wisconsin Democratic Party, about his soon-to-be-published book “This Is The Plan: How to End America’s Meltdown and Save Democracy,” about which Nancy Pelosi writes: “Ben Wikler is one of the most strategic and respected leaders of his generation. If we do what this book says, we will win.” His recent op ed in the New York Times, “My State Was a ‘Democracy Desert.’ This Is How We Turned It Around,” is a must-read and offers a preview of the ideas presented in Ben’s forthcoming book. RSVP here.

Win the Iowa US Senate Race with Josh Turek

Please join a Zoom with Josh Turek tonight, Monday, June 29 at 4:00 p.m. Pacific / 7:00 p.m. Eastern. After a decisive victory in the Iowa Senate Democratic primary, he is winning over Republican voters who are turning away from Trump because of gas and fertilizer prices, tariffs, the closing of medical clinics, and a new war in the Middle East. The latest poll shows him up 2 points. This will be a fight to the finish! Watch Turek’s launch video, and we think you’ll be thrilled to see him on Zoom.

Join: Donate any amount to join or email David@senatecircle.org with questions.

When: Tonight, Monday June, 29 at 4:00 p.m. Pacific / 7:00 p.m on Zoom.

Hosts: Senate Circle, Team Min, Markers For Democracy, and Downtown Nasty Women Social Group.

Concluding Thoughts

Trump has not relented in his demand that Congress pass the SAVE America Act, the voter-suppression legislation that requires proof of citizenship upon registration. Republicans are beginning to admit that there isn’t enough time to implement the legislation, even if it is passed.

I was corresponding with reader Jeff B. on Sunday, who pointed out that if the SAVE America Act were passed, it would impose an unmanageable burden on state election officials. There are approximately 240 million registered voters. States process more than 50 million registration transactions every year, more than half of which are updates to existing registrations. The “proof of citizenship” requirement would apply to updated registrations (e.g. change of address) and new voter registrations alike. See Election Administration and Voting Survey 2024 Comprehensive Report.

Expecting that states could handle requests for tens of millions of certified birth records between now and November is unrealistic. To put it bluntly, it would be a train wreck. Fifty train wrecks, to be precise. Even Republicans are recognizing it is unrealistic. See Democracy Docket, Kansas GOP Senator admits there may not be enough time to implement SAVE America Act.

And South Dakota Republicans at a state party convention voted down a resolution to censure Majority Leader John Thune for failing to pass the SAVE America Act. See Democracy Docket, South Dakota Republicans reject censuring John Thune over stalled SAVE America Act. Again, Republicans recognize that Thune doesn’t have the votes to overcome the filibuster to pass the Act or to abolish the filibuster. The SAVE America Act isn’t going to pass before the midterms. If Democrats take control of the House in November, the SAVE America Act is dead.

It has been a long, hard-fought battle, but we have outlasted and defeated those efforts at every step. Good job, everyone! The battle isn’t over, but our opposition is planning their retreat.

Talk to you tomorrow!

Pro-democracy protest photos

Send to rbhubbell@gmail.com. Include city and state.

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Anchorage, Alaska, June 27, 2026.  Our weekly Sunday Signwaving.  We may number in the single digits, however, we are consistent in our actions.

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Fort Bragg on the Mendocino Coast, CA. Arriving with signs, On a sunny, windy day, More honks than thumbs down.

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San Jose, CA.  Indivisible San Jose added a touch of humor to our messages today and happy to report both messages were well received. 

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There were 6 North Country Resilience volunteers displaying messages on the I-93 overpass in Bethlehem, NH today.  The weather was wonderful and we received many honks and waves from the vehicles going by.  Some folks on bicycles stopped on the bridge to thank us, too.

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Seven North Country Resilience volunteers displayed messages on an I-93 overpass in Franconia Notch in Franconia, NH on this beautiful, warm, sunny day.

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Billerica United Indivisible (MA) 6/24/26. Protesting the 4th “banniversary” of the SCOTUS Dobbs decision. We won’t go back. Believe women!

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Weekly Saturday protest Rail Trail overpass of Rte 114, Peabody, MA. #0 on, below bridge 6/27/2026. Varies 20-40

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On a typical weekend in the Berkshires (MA) there are demonstrations in Pittsfield, North Adams and on four I-90 overpasses.

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Hudson River Visibility Brigade in Pelham, NY June 28, 2026

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EAU CLAIRE, WISCONSIN — Farmers Feed Us! Tariffs Bleed Us!

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June 17, 2026. Lake Oswego, OR

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Attached are photos from the PRIDE Festival in West Hartford: highlighting words banned by the Trump Administration. 

Link to the Facebook reel from yesterday is here: https://www.facebook.com/share/r/17cutZ2V3M/

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yesterday was a perfect morning for a bridge drop. we showed up and Angelenos on the 101 did not disappoint - they usually start honking before we even get our messages up 💙

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I wanted to share our bridge system that was designed by one of my members. We are not allowed to adhere anything to the fences on the overpasses, so we designed a system that leans and can be erected by a few people. 

We would be happy to help anyone wanting to use this system - it takes PVC pipes, zip ties, paint, and durable poster material. 

It is also designed to stand with minimal support, and can be used at demonstrations without fences.

Any group interested can contact me, Cory Bly at resist@withvisalia.org

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Our regular Saturday morning protest (11-12) at Bothell (WA) Landing draws 40-100 people each week. We usually have a group of drummers adding to the festivities. But this week we also got a new band, The ICE Breakers, who say they will be back every week after July 4.

We aim to create a friendly neighborhood vibe to lift everyone’s spirits as we continue to stand for a world that works for everyone.

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Peterborough, NH Had to deflate our frog-loves-algae mini-rally to avoid heat stroke. Temp. inside frog blowup surpassed any steam bath/sauna.

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Bend, OR

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Dump Trump. Oakland, CA, High and MacArthur.

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Shout out from the Local Ball Park in Hartford CT 6/26/26

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Visibility Brigade Hartford CT 6/26/26- 

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Cocoa Beach,Florida

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Chattanooga Bridge Brigade June 26, 2026

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This weekly standout, from 12noon until 2pm, is in front of the Pride gas station in Hadley, MA. It was started over a year ago and gathers an average of 25 devoted protestors; not one week has been missed, even through rain, snow, sleet or heat.  

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Dayton, Ohio area last week. This event marked the fourth anniversary of the devastating Dobbs decision. Several folks from our local Indivisible group, DIFA (District 10 Indivisible For All), staged a bridge protest over I-75 at rush hour.

Our large square sign says Honk 4 Liberty and the long line of letters spells out Hands Off R Rights.