Thanks, Robert, for highlighting President Biden's granting of pardons. As you suggest, it's yet another stark contrast with Felonious Trump. More importantly, though, his action is a civics lesson in the legitimate use of pardons to right wrongs. While some may argue that those who are beneficiaries of the pardons broke the rules (in this case, the Military Code of Conduct) in effect at the time, the rules were changed to right a wrong. The pardons do not erase the pain and suffering already felt, so there is still a penalty paid for breaking the unjust rules.
Last night PBS ran an interview with a dishonorably discharged gay person. It was pretty moving. Especially when pointing out that these people were serving their country.
That was an excellent segment. When the interviewee noted that they were hospitalized for a lengthy amount of time, and their partner could not visit, my heart broke.
Sheesh, we have an old VHS tape with an interview with then newly retired senator Barry Goldwater. His take on gays in the military was he didn’t care whether soldiers were straight, as long as they could shoot straight. And he was the right wing monster of his day.
I too, turned MSNBC off when Alex Wagner started up with the dang poll, Robert. She usually does not give into that disinformation but she did. Like you, I am simply ignoring polls because yes, they are always skewed and I have yet to hear anyone I know, say that they’ve ever been contacted. WaPo and NYT are sliding into muck and it’s really a shame. They could have balanced reporting but they don’t want to. I just read Jennifer Rubin or anything by Carol Leonnig but get my news from you or others on Substack. Anyway, we await the debate tonight. After that, let the games begin!
I said ‘good night’ to Alex, myself last evening. The word ‘poll,’ like the word ‘debate,’ has lost its meaning. I’m tired of the blind interpretation of ‘facts’ collected in response to a question or questions I don’t know from a mysterious number of people (I assume) without identified age, sex, political affinity or general location. Shame on our news organizations for ignoring their responsibility to report the truth in its clearest form.
Actually, there's nothing mysterious about the WAPO/George Mason Univ. poll except the attention being lavished on it. The fact is, it measures the opinions of the least engaged members of the electorate.
SSRS (the research firm that carried out the survey) fully discloses that they vastly over-sampled "less engaged" voters: about 64% of the total ! The respondents (each of whom was paid $10 to take part), know little about politics, and they care even less.
Yet the poll's sponsor dubs these marginal participants in civic life as "Deciders". To the contrary, they are the least likely to be decisive. They're the "Irrelevants".
Lisa Desjardins (sp?) on the PBS News Hour did a long segment on time she spent with Marist pollsters learning how they frame questions and conduct their surveys. Very informative.
I'm ready to turn off Alex Wagner permanently. Her show is the one most likely to get deleted after recording if they're all doing the same stories. Outside of Lawrence and Chris Hayes, not paying much mind to MSNBC till their post debate analysis.
Besides Lawrence and Chris Hayes, I also “enjoy” watching Deadline White House with Nicole Wallace to get a fair unbiased view of the day’s political news.
Yes - Nicole is wonderful. She had the moral compass and the intellectual courage to face the truth about things she had believed and done, and to act on the answers.
I love Nicolle, her guests (like Andrew Weissman who is on almost every day), and her style. However, her husband works for the NY Times, and I feel she avoids criticizing the Times for that reason. I watch her for the reasons listed above, but am aware of a weak spot there in some of her coverage.
It's proper for her to "recuse" from the Times. Her husband used to be a major presence among guests, but hasn't come on any show since they got married.
Haha. Nicolle is not unbiased - - but she's biased the right way! Her persistence and passion in denouncing Trumpenstein has been exemplary. I've really appreciated and admired her work these now (sadly) many years as the country has been trapped in the vortex of this manic sociopath.
Same here. My wife and I usually watch Lawrence O'Donnell because we often turn on the TV late enough to be able to FF through commercials. If it's earlier, we now check out Chris Hayes rather than Alex Wagner because she seems to have succumbed to the click-bait racket too often.
If they are all doing the same stories? If? That's all they do!
And NON-STOP images of DT probably 20+ minutes every show. Disgusting. Nauseating. They are helping to brainwash viewers. Remember this station tried to hire Ronna Romney not long ago. Many hosts are GOP but are united around being anti-Trump. Whenever Joe S or Michael S bring up their "views" on a non-Never Trump issue I throw-up in my mouth
But yeah, very repetitious. I like certain guests like Elie Mystal, the sisters in law, Andrew W and Mary McCord.
Also I do most of my Msnbc now via podcast. Eliminates most commercial time, can skip past ads, and NO DT images. Much much better!
Besides not liking her awful voice (sorry not sorry for the ad hominem attack), I have always felt that Alex Wagner lacks depth. I stopped watching her the day after she took over Rachel’s non-Monday time slot.
This situation is absurd. A government official has no business taking money from a private party – period.
And calling the payoff a “gratuity” implies that the official is being rewarded by a private party. Government officials should avoid *all* financial entanglements with private parties.
"Gratuities" are supposed to be rewards for performance, but the lines are blurred between reward, incentive, and coercion. Our society has become so inured to "gratuities" being a standard cost of doing business that we're now given a menu of choices, starting at what used to be generous, on credit card purchases at restaurants and take-out establishments, shaming buyers in the process. Justifying bribes in the way the Court did takes it to a whole 'nother level.
At my last place of Corporate employment, we were subjected to regular and rigorous training regarding ethics, appearance of impropriety, bribery, gifts, gratuities both on the giving side and the taking side
There was no gray area
Such that our Gang of Six should be given similar instruction. How would they survive?
I was going to say something similar, but chose to keep it short. We had a $25 limit for accepting things of value, and were encouraged to pay for occasional lunches with vendors and contractors to keep things on the up and up. I could have lived very comfortably with the opportunities I had to take advantage of folks seeking influence. The Gang of Six seems to have adopted the mantra, "Ethics? We don't need no stinking ethics!" Now they seem to be trying to justify it by codifying it for everyone. I wouldn't be surprised to see my not-soon-enough-to-be-former senator, Robert Menendez, use it now as his defense.
Why should they even be allowed to receive $5000 as an acceptable amount to overlook? The story I heard on some show was that Snyder went to the company demanding $15,000 and they negotiated down to $13,000. Doesn't sound like a "gratuity," a gesture of appreciation, when someone shows up at your office demanding it and telling you how much.
Even if the payoff was “a gesture of appreciation”, it’s improper. Government employees are not supposed to be ‘rewarded’ by private parties, especially parties with an interest in the employee’s actions.
If there were to be a monetary gesture of appreciation, perhaps it might be through a donation to an appropriate charitable organization.
“When I use a word,” Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, “it means just what I choose it to mean – neither more nor less.” “The question is,” said Alice, “whether you can make words mean so many different things.” “The question is,” said Humpty Dumpty, “which is to be master——that's all.”
On a recent PBS episode, Lisa Desjardin took a deep dive into how the Marist poll is conducted. One pollster said he would make 100 survey calls and only one would answer or participate. And that was all I needed to hear. That polling process is worthless.
How many of us actually pick up our phones when we see an unfamiliar number? I never do. How many of us pickup and hear an unfamiliar voice and expect it to be a scam? Then hang up.
So, the PBS/Marist poll is skewed to people who will talk to anyone and want to vent their feelings to strangers. All the polls use similar techniques. They are worthless.
There is only one meaningful poll. November 5th. Vote Blue. It may be our last chance to vote.
I completely agree Bill and have been stating similar sentiments for months. Polls are worthless. As Robert states here, the news media is attempting to create their own messaging.
Shawn--loved your ending sentence! Thanks for the laugh. Indeed, I just may have to "bribe" those sites for a tee because of your clever use of current news.
Thanks TL! I tend to pitch the same story around the comment section… because EVERY article makes me want to wear a Biden T-shirt. I’ve got to change things up a bit to keep it interesting. 🛒👕
Robert, In your Concluding Thoughts, wherein you reference a NYTimes and a WaPo poll, both misleading, you rightly state that “(m)ajor media outlets are failing democracy when it most matters.” While I couldn’t agree more, I also would note that advising us to “(s)eek out and support independent, reliable voices,” though sound and necessary counsel, in my view, is insufficient because it doesn’t account for the increasingly large swath of indoctrinated Americans, who largely feed on the junk food of propaganda and, therefore, are less inclined to ask questions and be skeptical.
Accordingly, my question is what can citizens, who crave to be part of the battle for media democracy, do when media misrepresent important information or events? Though I’ve acted to put pressure on a given outlet to correct the record, I don’t expect to affect a more accurate accounting absent our acting together, speaking up and aggressively demanding more accountability.
While, admittedly, the odds are not in our favor, given the stakes, I don’t believe that should stop us. Thought?
Thanks, Barbara Jo, I’ve also acted “to put pressure on a given outlet(s) to correct the record”. I’m encouraged that you and many others here have done the same.I also follow the Media and Democracy Project and have signed their pledge:
I like to donate to ProPublica as they’re powered mostly by donations and are transparent about their financial reporting. Alito actually complained about ProPublica paying a fortune to investigate Clarence Thomas. Best use of my dollars !
I know it often seems like an uphill battle …but as Joyce Vance says, we’re in this together.
Anything that annoys Alito, is something I'm all for...and in this case I've been reading and support Pro Publica for at least three or four years and wish I had discovered it earlier.
Kathy, I greatly appreciate you writing and providing the link, which I sense could be a mighty useful resource. Btw, I, too, donate to ProPublica and am grateful you mentioned it on this site.
I am increasingly unclear of what, if anything, we are to conclude from polls, other than that the country is fairly evenly divided between two staggeringly different candidates.
With this NYT poll then caveat, it’s almost as if Cohn is saying, “These results aren’t what we expected so we can either note the caveat or try to adjust.” In other words, there must be some sort of oracle that is “accurate,” and we’ll apply weightings until this looks more like we think it should? (Which comes from where, exactly?)
I think the problem is on the reporting, which should be, “Question(s) x was asked of y people on date z. These are the responses of those y people,” as opposed to “Here’s what voters currently think.” That just is incorrect. Those are the answers of those particular polled participants to particular questions on particular dates. Who the respondents are and what the exact questions are matters a lot.
What we are to conclude from the polls is that the Press is increasingly creating the news not just reporting on it. When a newspaper is involved in polling and then reports on it, they are reporting on news they have created. What a way to sell your news with sensationalist upsetting news. I do not look at polls or believe them. Biden won in 2020 because people could see what a problem Trump's governance was. That means enough people did not watch Fox News. I don't think this has changed, but democrats are less likely to answer polls because we are more aware of the problems with giving information to random strangers that call you. These are not door to door polls, they are either over computer or phone. Neither is guaranteeing a good sample. Without a good sample your results are skewed.
I have an MS in statistics and one of the first things we are taught to do is ask/verify if the "sample" is representative of your "target population". If the answer is YES, then you can continue to analyze the data and test for statistical significance, draw conclusions, etc. If the answer is NO, then your data is meaningless and you either start over or abandon the effort.
Cheryl, YES! I have a PhD in Sociology and we were taught to follow the same steps and to reach the same conclusion if sample is problematic: “Garbage in, garbage out”. It’s a no brainer. The misuse of survey methods and statistics by once-trusted newspapers and journalists is shameful and disgusting. I always check the study methods before reading any article touting a new survey. And I immediately stop reading or stop listening to anyone who gives a mediocre survey the time of day. That includes WaPo, NYT, and others.
When I complained to the NYT Editor that they did not show us enough information about their survey, such as how they got their respondents, and what their questions were, they totally ignored this and tried to tell me how the sample was valid with Black and Youth voters. I highly doubted it. Yes, I could see that both groups would be vulnerable to Bots heavily targeting them as Democratic groups they would want to make reluctant to vote. I remember that when I was in fourth grade my mom told me that she read a study in the Chicago Sun-Times that said that teachers could just as easily teach reading to 40 children as 20. I happened to be in an overcrowded classroom that year, and I could see for myself what the problems were. So, I told my mom that that did not make sense. I had personal experience with being in a class that was almost that large and I could see how difficult that would be. So, when a study defies my personal experience, I want better info than I get from these publications.
It's real easy, ignore the polls and any story that treats with them. The only poll that counts ends on Nov. 5, except for in transit absentee and provisional ballots and we can take a lot of steps to ensure that President Biden and all the down ballot Democrats come out ahead. Make a plan to vote, support your local and statewide Democrats and encourage your friends to do the same. The election isn't going to be decided tomorrow, and nothing that NYT, WaPo, or the failed insurrectionist can do will change that.
I am a member of Democrats Abroad Germany a subset of Democrats Abroad which partners with Vote From Abroad to help people get their votes in. We are very active in the election, having precinct captains, monthly chapter meetings and regularly planned actions to recruit voters. We will also be sending delegates to the Democratic Convention in August. Through this organization many people are able to get their ballots via email, then send them in by mail once they are filled out. This means that we are able to have enough time to send them in. I get a notice when my ballot is received. Mine arrived on time. By different counts there are between 9 and 11 million Americans living abroad. If you know someone, make sure that they know that they can get help with voting by contacting either Vote from Abroad https://www.votefromabroad.org/
Ingest Hopium as an antidote. Simon sayz the trend is our friend,
On the agenda for me today is my weekly DNC veterans' group. We are starting a Florida variation. If interested email Judge Tom Snook uscga67@gmail.com
Later FT6 has a weekly Florida phone banking program Thursdays from 2-4 edt.
Next, Big Tent has a zoom program with Congressman Jamie Raskin (D-MD) and Caroline Fredrickson, Senior Fellow at The Brennan Center for Justice, this Thursday, June 27th at 7:45PM ET. https://www.bigtentusa.org/
I'm looking forward to the Big Tent event - Jamie Raskin is a national treasure!
For those of you who can't make the Zoom call, this evening, Big Tent records all their events and then posts the recording within a day or two on the their events page. Just scroll past the upcoming events to get to the recordings.
Robert, your capacity for study, summary, and analysis continues to amaze this old teacher. You point out little known and discussed matters and advise us on how to think about them. Yet, I would suggest we add some nuance to the "Ignore the Polls" chant, which you (and Simon Rosenberg and other wise commentators in the Hubbell community) espouse. It is never wise to ignore what false messages your opponents are putting out. I'd say, "Notice what's going down. See what WAPO and NYT are really doing, let Robert guides us through their actions [as you did in today's posting]. Then see the polls for what they are, and work to communicate with people that Biden is not losing and the inadequacies of some of the polls." All this for me boils down to "Ignore the Conclusions of the Polls but don't ignore how they are working on us and definitely, "Expose the Flaws." and "Don't Lose Heart." WAPO says, "Democracy Dies in Darkness." I agree with that. They also should say, "Democracy Dies When We Misrepresent the Validity of the Polls and any other "News" we have created." Where is Ben Bradlee when we need him.
It's hard to disagree with what you say, but I will, anyway! When I say, "Ignore the polls," i am talking to people who are the intended victims of the polls--the viewers and readers who are driven to doom-scrolling and rage-tweeting that drives media profits. We are the consumer, target, and product. I am saying that we need to stop being the victim of polls.
Polls serve a useful purpose in the hands of skilled political advisers and should not be ignored by them. But most people don't have the statistical background to understand the limitations of polls. Most political reporters don't have that background either. They frequently cite "cross-tabs" showing subgroups with small sample sizes and HUGE margins of error--like plus or minus 20%. But they do not include that caveat when the "drill down" on the polls.
No argument there, Robert. Your role as interpreter of the polls is always helpful. Very rarely do pollsters or the media that rely on them "show their work," as we use to hear in math class. Like it or not they are part of the landscape (S. Rosenberg, for example, with caveats, celebrates the shift in Biden's favor shown in some polls.) Bottom line for me is pay attention, interpret with the help of folks who know more about the game than I do, and never, ever, let a poll dis-courage you. Had we only slavishly watched the polls, we would have all given up in 2022 when the Red Tsunami was supposedly on its way. We didn't. Trump continues to underperform in almost every real election. Let's keep it that way.
Agreeing with Patrick E. White, your capacity to elucidate the forests and the trees feels like a Master Class in reading between the lines. The result: always seeing hope on the horizon.
Hi Robert, appreciate listening to you every night, since I am a night owl. You don’t seem to like Alex Wagner very much. Have you ever reached out to her about what she presents on her show? She’s one of the few Asian Americans to make prime time on MSM. The polls really bother me too, as they have been wrong the past several election cycles. But they do tell us there may, and a big may, be more trouble in paradise than we can imagine. I’d rather get an inkling that things may go bad. 2016 really was a shocker. We need to be ready. As a Chinese American that does not blend in easily, it’s truly worrisome. Glad I live in Maryland. Thanks agin for your insight.
I think Alex Wagner needs to grow into her position as Rachel's replacement. Hosts change and grow, or diminish. Lawrence O'Donnell is emerging as a giant. Ari Melber had a path but has lost his way. Chris Hayes is great, but he has too many "inside the beltway friends" and tends to overemphasize their views. Alex Wagner is repeating the mainstream media narrative and is not an effective interviewer; she can't (won't?) challenge statements that are wrong. I don't mean to pick on her; I acknowledge that most hosts on MSNBC have limitations.
The NYTimes is out with another story this morning admitting its poll may be wrong. But Wagner included none of that nuance or pushback in her reporting (before i turned off MSNBC). Moreover, on a day of huge developments on the Supreme Court, she led with a NYTimes fabricated news story. She is crediting the horserace theory of the election. We deserve better from someone who has scaled the journalistic heights.
Thanks Robert. I sure do miss seeing Rachel more often. She really is one in a million. If you don't mind, I was going to contact Alex and tell her about some of the things that were discussed her, not identifying anyone. I am hoping she can tweak her reporting style. Unless this something you want to do. It might be more of an impact coming from you. In this fight, we are all on the same side for now. Thanks again.
We stopped watching her almost a year ago when we realized that, when discussing a particular issue, she would go from guest to guest to try to get them to agree to the most dire (as predetermined by MSNBC?) implication for democracy, reproductive rights, climate, gun control, etc. She was trying to reshape the news, not just report it.
Methinks you impute to Robert an emotion that is invalid, with your opinion that he doesn't seem to like her, as I believe Robert wouldn't let any personal feelings interfere with his observations of news personalities. As for polls, most of them seem to be seriously flawed. If you don't already subscribe to Simon Rosenberg's Hopium Chronicles, you should consider it.
I do subscribe to Simon and an entire myriad of journalists, activists, historians, scientists, public health specialists and others on Substack, Patreon, and independent sources on Mastodon, Bluesky, and Twitter. I subscribe to five newspapers and other publications. In retirement, one of the things I became hooked on was WWII history. Going on my 7th tour in August. Also went on a WWI tour last year. I volunteered in the office of a Maryland House Delegate. Trust me, I get it. As a minority I’m much closer to ground zero if anything happens to democracy in the US if the last Trump administration is any indicator. My German friend messaged me and wrote the US reminded him of early 1930’s Germany. I wrote, I know. Thanks for your response.
We are in similar boats, tho I'm not retired but am a first gen Chinese American in healthcare, and with Covid-19 under tffg have already experienced the horror of his prior term, the virulent racism that was exposed, the misogyny, even though I live in a diverse community. I write postcards in a tiny effort to save democracy and we all must do what we can. Have a good day.
Hi JustRaven, my family has been on US soil four 4 generations, but I am the first to grow up with a mother and father because of the Chinese Exclusion Act. What ever the administration, if there is some kerfuffle about China, Chinese Americans or Chinese living in the US get targeted. There is a long, documented history of us getting scapegoated. I feel very lucky to be in this moment because of the sacrifices of all those that came before me - not just my family but all Americans that would not let this dream die. I hope we can keep it going. Stay well.
Ignore the polls. Right Robert, especially when the "esteemed" Nate Cohn leads with several paragraphs on Trump’s strength in the polls and then buries this paragraph midway in his article
“When outlier results come around, it’s generally better to look at the average of polls. As it happens, we released our poll averages for the cycle on Monday: Mr. Trump is ahead by one point over President Biden after including the latest Times/Siena poll. That’s a safer measure of where the race stands." Whaat?
It isn’t only with respect to polls: Within ‘news’ articles, the reporters often include sentences or paragraphs that try to tell us what to think. And that’s even though they might have ‘curated’ facts that make it into the articles (looking at several sources has become increasingly important).
Gifts? Perhaps the r key doesn't work on their computer?
President Biden's pardon of military members today is a welcomed effort to set right not only the members affected but the rest of us, too. "Many have been denied employment, security clearances, promotions, VA loans, and other VA benefits." What talent has society been missing out on because of court martials or dishonorable discharges? Security clearances - how many spoke multiple languages or had expertise in crucial areas? Denied employment, loans - how many new businesses didn't happen that would have employed thousands of other folks? On and on. All the what ifs are real people.
The polls pop up on my feed regularly. The proliferation of these polls on media is a factor in Democrats becoming demoralized.
Conversely, here in red, red, Naples Fla, we are holding meet and greet parties with fellow Democrats, and our candidates attend. They are quite energizing. At the last party, 5 of the 25 people present described being lifelong Republicans who switched to Democrat because they recognize the threat to democracy.
In some of my meetings with local Republican leaders here, they tell me they do not plan to vote for Trump nor Biden. I'll take it. I am just hoping they don't vote at all., rather than only vote down ballot. But I am not going to argue the point with them.
My only point is that none of that is going to be reflected in the polls.
The "accidental" posting of that opinion draft is highly suspect. If such a thing happens once: it's an accident. If it happens more than once, then it is no accident. That being said, I think there may be a mole in the SC printing office but I can't figure if the mole is a red fish or blue fish. Who does this leakage help or hurt?
Nothing triggers me more than anything coming out of this Supreme Court. These arrogant and corrupt justices simply have no sense of living in the real world, and what the consequences of their decisions are. It’s interesting that any decision they could make that would reflect the majority opinion in this country is one that they delay, or throw back to the lower court, or that they simply kick down the road. They have no problem making a definitive decision when it suits their theocratic and regressive agenda. How dare they have to “dawdle” before deciding that allowing women to die, or be permanently diminished, when they arrive at an ER with a pregnancy-related issue, would be an insane decision to allow! I am becoming increasingly angry at how women are being treated in this new fake religious and antiquated society. They do not even care if women live, as long as they show their base that they are big and bad defenders of a faith that has nothing to do with Christ! This law in Idaho and other states is barbaric and inhumane. Why is there even a question? Federal law trumps state law. The end. Why can’t the Supreme Court just state that??? My prayer is that the Democrats will soon win back positions of power and that we undo all the damage done by these people. And that we establish laws that will never allow them to seize power again. They never learn. They become more and more cruel in pushing their agenda, regardless of the voice of the people. What happened to moderating to stay in power???? If only all Americans were better informed and realized how the Supreme Court is destroying our foundations. And the fact that the leaders of that Court are openly corrupt and utterly disdainful of the rest of us is truly remarkable. There must be changes made in how this body operates, or we should simply ignore their most odious decisions. So hoping that Biden crushes Trump in the debate, and in the election. I would love nothing more than having Alito, Thomas, Gorsuch, and Kavanaugh absolutely freak out when they see that Biden and the Dems are in charge again!!!!
A Bribe is a Bribe is a Bribe is a Bribe (paraphrasing)
...unless it's a duck.
Thanks, Robert, for highlighting President Biden's granting of pardons. As you suggest, it's yet another stark contrast with Felonious Trump. More importantly, though, his action is a civics lesson in the legitimate use of pardons to right wrongs. While some may argue that those who are beneficiaries of the pardons broke the rules (in this case, the Military Code of Conduct) in effect at the time, the rules were changed to right a wrong. The pardons do not erase the pain and suffering already felt, so there is still a penalty paid for breaking the unjust rules.
Last night PBS ran an interview with a dishonorably discharged gay person. It was pretty moving. Especially when pointing out that these people were serving their country.
That was an excellent segment. When the interviewee noted that they were hospitalized for a lengthy amount of time, and their partner could not visit, my heart broke.
I saw that too. What a heart rending story.! Our president is such a compassionate, honorable person. We are lucky to have him and must keep him!!
Sheesh, we have an old VHS tape with an interview with then newly retired senator Barry Goldwater. His take on gays in the military was he didn’t care whether soldiers were straight, as long as they could shoot straight. And he was the right wing monster of his day.
Wow! Well, he certainly had the right attitude, at least about gay peeps in the military!
I too, turned MSNBC off when Alex Wagner started up with the dang poll, Robert. She usually does not give into that disinformation but she did. Like you, I am simply ignoring polls because yes, they are always skewed and I have yet to hear anyone I know, say that they’ve ever been contacted. WaPo and NYT are sliding into muck and it’s really a shame. They could have balanced reporting but they don’t want to. I just read Jennifer Rubin or anything by Carol Leonnig but get my news from you or others on Substack. Anyway, we await the debate tonight. After that, let the games begin!
I said ‘good night’ to Alex, myself last evening. The word ‘poll,’ like the word ‘debate,’ has lost its meaning. I’m tired of the blind interpretation of ‘facts’ collected in response to a question or questions I don’t know from a mysterious number of people (I assume) without identified age, sex, political affinity or general location. Shame on our news organizations for ignoring their responsibility to report the truth in its clearest form.
Actually, there's nothing mysterious about the WAPO/George Mason Univ. poll except the attention being lavished on it. The fact is, it measures the opinions of the least engaged members of the electorate.
SSRS (the research firm that carried out the survey) fully discloses that they vastly over-sampled "less engaged" voters: about 64% of the total ! The respondents (each of whom was paid $10 to take part), know little about politics, and they care even less.
Yet the poll's sponsor dubs these marginal participants in civic life as "Deciders". To the contrary, they are the least likely to be decisive. They're the "Irrelevants".
.
Lisa Desjardins (sp?) on the PBS News Hour did a long segment on time she spent with Marist pollsters learning how they frame questions and conduct their surveys. Very informative.
I'm ready to turn off Alex Wagner permanently. Her show is the one most likely to get deleted after recording if they're all doing the same stories. Outside of Lawrence and Chris Hayes, not paying much mind to MSNBC till their post debate analysis.
Besides Lawrence and Chris Hayes, I also “enjoy” watching Deadline White House with Nicole Wallace to get a fair unbiased view of the day’s political news.
Yes - Nicole is wonderful. She had the moral compass and the intellectual courage to face the truth about things she had believed and done, and to act on the answers.
I love Nicolle, her guests (like Andrew Weissman who is on almost every day), and her style. However, her husband works for the NY Times, and I feel she avoids criticizing the Times for that reason. I watch her for the reasons listed above, but am aware of a weak spot there in some of her coverage.
It's proper for her to "recuse" from the Times. Her husband used to be a major presence among guests, but hasn't come on any show since they got married.
And had a baby via surrogate, I believe.
Cathy W- those are my favorite shows to watch too.
Haha. Nicolle is not unbiased - - but she's biased the right way! Her persistence and passion in denouncing Trumpenstein has been exemplary. I've really appreciated and admired her work these now (sadly) many years as the country has been trapped in the vortex of this manic sociopath.
I still trust Joy Reid integrity and fire and Rachel Maddow on Monday.
Same here. My wife and I usually watch Lawrence O'Donnell because we often turn on the TV late enough to be able to FF through commercials. If it's earlier, we now check out Chris Hayes rather than Alex Wagner because she seems to have succumbed to the click-bait racket too often.
Alex is desperate not to have her show canceled. This is her second go round at MSNBC.
If they are all doing the same stories? If? That's all they do!
And NON-STOP images of DT probably 20+ minutes every show. Disgusting. Nauseating. They are helping to brainwash viewers. Remember this station tried to hire Ronna Romney not long ago. Many hosts are GOP but are united around being anti-Trump. Whenever Joe S or Michael S bring up their "views" on a non-Never Trump issue I throw-up in my mouth
But yeah, very repetitious. I like certain guests like Elie Mystal, the sisters in law, Andrew W and Mary McCord.
Also I do most of my Msnbc now via podcast. Eliminates most commercial time, can skip past ads, and NO DT images. Much much better!
Besides not liking her awful voice (sorry not sorry for the ad hominem attack), I have always felt that Alex Wagner lacks depth. I stopped watching her the day after she took over Rachel’s non-Monday time slot.
When is.a bribe not a bribe?
When you say it isn’t.
Why didn’t I think of that before?
Howard, So succinct, so pointed, so descriptive of our Supreme Law of The Land Court of Corruption
This situation is absurd. A government official has no business taking money from a private party – period.
And calling the payoff a “gratuity” implies that the official is being rewarded by a private party. Government officials should avoid *all* financial entanglements with private parties.
"Gratuities" are supposed to be rewards for performance, but the lines are blurred between reward, incentive, and coercion. Our society has become so inured to "gratuities" being a standard cost of doing business that we're now given a menu of choices, starting at what used to be generous, on credit card purchases at restaurants and take-out establishments, shaming buyers in the process. Justifying bribes in the way the Court did takes it to a whole 'nother level.
At my last place of Corporate employment, we were subjected to regular and rigorous training regarding ethics, appearance of impropriety, bribery, gifts, gratuities both on the giving side and the taking side
There was no gray area
Such that our Gang of Six should be given similar instruction. How would they survive?
I was going to say something similar, but chose to keep it short. We had a $25 limit for accepting things of value, and were encouraged to pay for occasional lunches with vendors and contractors to keep things on the up and up. I could have lived very comfortably with the opportunities I had to take advantage of folks seeking influence. The Gang of Six seems to have adopted the mantra, "Ethics? We don't need no stinking ethics!" Now they seem to be trying to justify it by codifying it for everyone. I wouldn't be surprised to see my not-soon-enough-to-be-former senator, Robert Menendez, use it now as his defense.
Did you work in automotive? Sounds like GM guidelines
Why should they even be allowed to receive $5000 as an acceptable amount to overlook? The story I heard on some show was that Snyder went to the company demanding $15,000 and they negotiated down to $13,000. Doesn't sound like a "gratuity," a gesture of appreciation, when someone shows up at your office demanding it and telling you how much.
Even if the payoff was “a gesture of appreciation”, it’s improper. Government employees are not supposed to be ‘rewarded’ by private parties, especially parties with an interest in the employee’s actions.
If there were to be a monetary gesture of appreciation, perhaps it might be through a donation to an appropriate charitable organization.
“When I use a word,” Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, “it means just what I choose it to mean – neither more nor less.” “The question is,” said Alice, “whether you can make words mean so many different things.” “The question is,” said Humpty Dumpty, “which is to be master——that's all.”
On a recent PBS episode, Lisa Desjardin took a deep dive into how the Marist poll is conducted. One pollster said he would make 100 survey calls and only one would answer or participate. And that was all I needed to hear. That polling process is worthless.
How many of us actually pick up our phones when we see an unfamiliar number? I never do. How many of us pickup and hear an unfamiliar voice and expect it to be a scam? Then hang up.
So, the PBS/Marist poll is skewed to people who will talk to anyone and want to vent their feelings to strangers. All the polls use similar techniques. They are worthless.
There is only one meaningful poll. November 5th. Vote Blue. It may be our last chance to vote.
Make this into a tee-shirt: "So, the PBS/Marist poll is skewed to people who will talk to anyone and want to vent their feelings to strangers."
I completely agree Bill and have been stating similar sentiments for months. Polls are worthless. As Robert states here, the news media is attempting to create their own messaging.
Insane! So to avoid prosecution for bribing public officials all you have to do is… put a bow on it. Insane.
BeantownStrong.org
DemsMakeLifeBetter.org
For a $30 bribe both sites above will send you a Biden T-shirt to protest this bull hucky.
Shawn--loved your ending sentence! Thanks for the laugh. Indeed, I just may have to "bribe" those sites for a tee because of your clever use of current news.
Thanks TL! I tend to pitch the same story around the comment section… because EVERY article makes me want to wear a Biden T-shirt. I’ve got to change things up a bit to keep it interesting. 🛒👕
Robert, In your Concluding Thoughts, wherein you reference a NYTimes and a WaPo poll, both misleading, you rightly state that “(m)ajor media outlets are failing democracy when it most matters.” While I couldn’t agree more, I also would note that advising us to “(s)eek out and support independent, reliable voices,” though sound and necessary counsel, in my view, is insufficient because it doesn’t account for the increasingly large swath of indoctrinated Americans, who largely feed on the junk food of propaganda and, therefore, are less inclined to ask questions and be skeptical.
Accordingly, my question is what can citizens, who crave to be part of the battle for media democracy, do when media misrepresent important information or events? Though I’ve acted to put pressure on a given outlet to correct the record, I don’t expect to affect a more accurate accounting absent our acting together, speaking up and aggressively demanding more accountability.
While, admittedly, the odds are not in our favor, given the stakes, I don’t believe that should stop us. Thought?
Thanks, Barbara Jo, I’ve also acted “to put pressure on a given outlet(s) to correct the record”. I’m encouraged that you and many others here have done the same.I also follow the Media and Democracy Project and have signed their pledge:
https://open.substack.com/pub/mediaanddemocracyproject/p/good-news-bad-news-june-26-2024?r=fqsxl&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email
I like to donate to ProPublica as they’re powered mostly by donations and are transparent about their financial reporting. Alito actually complained about ProPublica paying a fortune to investigate Clarence Thomas. Best use of my dollars !
I know it often seems like an uphill battle …but as Joyce Vance says, we’re in this together.
Anything that annoys Alito, is something I'm all for...and in this case I've been reading and support Pro Publica for at least three or four years and wish I had discovered it earlier.
Kathy, I greatly appreciate you writing and providing the link, which I sense could be a mighty useful resource. Btw, I, too, donate to ProPublica and am grateful you mentioned it on this site.
“Major media outlets are failing democracy when it most matters.”
That’s the tee shirt I want!
I am increasingly unclear of what, if anything, we are to conclude from polls, other than that the country is fairly evenly divided between two staggeringly different candidates.
With this NYT poll then caveat, it’s almost as if Cohn is saying, “These results aren’t what we expected so we can either note the caveat or try to adjust.” In other words, there must be some sort of oracle that is “accurate,” and we’ll apply weightings until this looks more like we think it should? (Which comes from where, exactly?)
I think the problem is on the reporting, which should be, “Question(s) x was asked of y people on date z. These are the responses of those y people,” as opposed to “Here’s what voters currently think.” That just is incorrect. Those are the answers of those particular polled participants to particular questions on particular dates. Who the respondents are and what the exact questions are matters a lot.
What we are to conclude from the polls is that the Press is increasingly creating the news not just reporting on it. When a newspaper is involved in polling and then reports on it, they are reporting on news they have created. What a way to sell your news with sensationalist upsetting news. I do not look at polls or believe them. Biden won in 2020 because people could see what a problem Trump's governance was. That means enough people did not watch Fox News. I don't think this has changed, but democrats are less likely to answer polls because we are more aware of the problems with giving information to random strangers that call you. These are not door to door polls, they are either over computer or phone. Neither is guaranteeing a good sample. Without a good sample your results are skewed.
I have an MS in statistics and one of the first things we are taught to do is ask/verify if the "sample" is representative of your "target population". If the answer is YES, then you can continue to analyze the data and test for statistical significance, draw conclusions, etc. If the answer is NO, then your data is meaningless and you either start over or abandon the effort.
In other words "Garbage In, Garbage Out"!
Cheryl, YES! I have a PhD in Sociology and we were taught to follow the same steps and to reach the same conclusion if sample is problematic: “Garbage in, garbage out”. It’s a no brainer. The misuse of survey methods and statistics by once-trusted newspapers and journalists is shameful and disgusting. I always check the study methods before reading any article touting a new survey. And I immediately stop reading or stop listening to anyone who gives a mediocre survey the time of day. That includes WaPo, NYT, and others.
When I complained to the NYT Editor that they did not show us enough information about their survey, such as how they got their respondents, and what their questions were, they totally ignored this and tried to tell me how the sample was valid with Black and Youth voters. I highly doubted it. Yes, I could see that both groups would be vulnerable to Bots heavily targeting them as Democratic groups they would want to make reluctant to vote. I remember that when I was in fourth grade my mom told me that she read a study in the Chicago Sun-Times that said that teachers could just as easily teach reading to 40 children as 20. I happened to be in an overcrowded classroom that year, and I could see for myself what the problems were. So, I told my mom that that did not make sense. I had personal experience with being in a class that was almost that large and I could see how difficult that would be. So, when a study defies my personal experience, I want better info than I get from these publications.
Skewed being a polite way of saying "completely worthless".
I was kinda thinkin' FUBAR 😈
I'm good with that.
And one never knows of the quality and clarity (or lack of) of the questions.
Just one former reading/writing teacher’s thought.
It's real easy, ignore the polls and any story that treats with them. The only poll that counts ends on Nov. 5, except for in transit absentee and provisional ballots and we can take a lot of steps to ensure that President Biden and all the down ballot Democrats come out ahead. Make a plan to vote, support your local and statewide Democrats and encourage your friends to do the same. The election isn't going to be decided tomorrow, and nothing that NYT, WaPo, or the failed insurrectionist can do will change that.
I am a member of Democrats Abroad Germany a subset of Democrats Abroad which partners with Vote From Abroad to help people get their votes in. We are very active in the election, having precinct captains, monthly chapter meetings and regularly planned actions to recruit voters. We will also be sending delegates to the Democratic Convention in August. Through this organization many people are able to get their ballots via email, then send them in by mail once they are filled out. This means that we are able to have enough time to send them in. I get a notice when my ballot is received. Mine arrived on time. By different counts there are between 9 and 11 million Americans living abroad. If you know someone, make sure that they know that they can get help with voting by contacting either Vote from Abroad https://www.votefromabroad.org/
or Democrats Abroad. https://www.democratsabroad.org/
Ingest Hopium as an antidote. Simon sayz the trend is our friend,
On the agenda for me today is my weekly DNC veterans' group. We are starting a Florida variation. If interested email Judge Tom Snook uscga67@gmail.com
Later FT6 has a weekly Florida phone banking program Thursdays from 2-4 edt.
https://www.mobilize.us/ft6/event/632594/
Next, Big Tent has a zoom program with Congressman Jamie Raskin (D-MD) and Caroline Fredrickson, Senior Fellow at The Brennan Center for Justice, this Thursday, June 27th at 7:45PM ET. https://www.bigtentusa.org/
I'm looking forward to the Big Tent event - Jamie Raskin is a national treasure!
For those of you who can't make the Zoom call, this evening, Big Tent records all their events and then posts the recording within a day or two on the their events page. Just scroll past the upcoming events to get to the recordings.
https://www.bigtentusa.org/our-events/
I just registered for this Zoom. Thanks!
"...and all the down ballot Democrats...", the importance of which can't be stressed enough.
Robert, your capacity for study, summary, and analysis continues to amaze this old teacher. You point out little known and discussed matters and advise us on how to think about them. Yet, I would suggest we add some nuance to the "Ignore the Polls" chant, which you (and Simon Rosenberg and other wise commentators in the Hubbell community) espouse. It is never wise to ignore what false messages your opponents are putting out. I'd say, "Notice what's going down. See what WAPO and NYT are really doing, let Robert guides us through their actions [as you did in today's posting]. Then see the polls for what they are, and work to communicate with people that Biden is not losing and the inadequacies of some of the polls." All this for me boils down to "Ignore the Conclusions of the Polls but don't ignore how they are working on us and definitely, "Expose the Flaws." and "Don't Lose Heart." WAPO says, "Democracy Dies in Darkness." I agree with that. They also should say, "Democracy Dies When We Misrepresent the Validity of the Polls and any other "News" we have created." Where is Ben Bradlee when we need him.
It's hard to disagree with what you say, but I will, anyway! When I say, "Ignore the polls," i am talking to people who are the intended victims of the polls--the viewers and readers who are driven to doom-scrolling and rage-tweeting that drives media profits. We are the consumer, target, and product. I am saying that we need to stop being the victim of polls.
Polls serve a useful purpose in the hands of skilled political advisers and should not be ignored by them. But most people don't have the statistical background to understand the limitations of polls. Most political reporters don't have that background either. They frequently cite "cross-tabs" showing subgroups with small sample sizes and HUGE margins of error--like plus or minus 20%. But they do not include that caveat when the "drill down" on the polls.
No argument there, Robert. Your role as interpreter of the polls is always helpful. Very rarely do pollsters or the media that rely on them "show their work," as we use to hear in math class. Like it or not they are part of the landscape (S. Rosenberg, for example, with caveats, celebrates the shift in Biden's favor shown in some polls.) Bottom line for me is pay attention, interpret with the help of folks who know more about the game than I do, and never, ever, let a poll dis-courage you. Had we only slavishly watched the polls, we would have all given up in 2022 when the Red Tsunami was supposedly on its way. We didn't. Trump continues to underperform in almost every real election. Let's keep it that way.
Agreeing with Patrick E. White, your capacity to elucidate the forests and the trees feels like a Master Class in reading between the lines. The result: always seeing hope on the horizon.
Hi Robert, appreciate listening to you every night, since I am a night owl. You don’t seem to like Alex Wagner very much. Have you ever reached out to her about what she presents on her show? She’s one of the few Asian Americans to make prime time on MSM. The polls really bother me too, as they have been wrong the past several election cycles. But they do tell us there may, and a big may, be more trouble in paradise than we can imagine. I’d rather get an inkling that things may go bad. 2016 really was a shocker. We need to be ready. As a Chinese American that does not blend in easily, it’s truly worrisome. Glad I live in Maryland. Thanks agin for your insight.
I think Alex Wagner needs to grow into her position as Rachel's replacement. Hosts change and grow, or diminish. Lawrence O'Donnell is emerging as a giant. Ari Melber had a path but has lost his way. Chris Hayes is great, but he has too many "inside the beltway friends" and tends to overemphasize their views. Alex Wagner is repeating the mainstream media narrative and is not an effective interviewer; she can't (won't?) challenge statements that are wrong. I don't mean to pick on her; I acknowledge that most hosts on MSNBC have limitations.
The NYTimes is out with another story this morning admitting its poll may be wrong. But Wagner included none of that nuance or pushback in her reporting (before i turned off MSNBC). Moreover, on a day of huge developments on the Supreme Court, she led with a NYTimes fabricated news story. She is crediting the horserace theory of the election. We deserve better from someone who has scaled the journalistic heights.
Thanks Robert. I sure do miss seeing Rachel more often. She really is one in a million. If you don't mind, I was going to contact Alex and tell her about some of the things that were discussed her, not identifying anyone. I am hoping she can tweak her reporting style. Unless this something you want to do. It might be more of an impact coming from you. In this fight, we are all on the same side for now. Thanks again.
We stopped watching her almost a year ago when we realized that, when discussing a particular issue, she would go from guest to guest to try to get them to agree to the most dire (as predetermined by MSNBC?) implication for democracy, reproductive rights, climate, gun control, etc. She was trying to reshape the news, not just report it.
I used to follow MSNBC but these days without Rachel only tune in to Lawrence and Stephanie, and Rachel on Mondays.
Methinks you impute to Robert an emotion that is invalid, with your opinion that he doesn't seem to like her, as I believe Robert wouldn't let any personal feelings interfere with his observations of news personalities. As for polls, most of them seem to be seriously flawed. If you don't already subscribe to Simon Rosenberg's Hopium Chronicles, you should consider it.
I do subscribe to Simon and an entire myriad of journalists, activists, historians, scientists, public health specialists and others on Substack, Patreon, and independent sources on Mastodon, Bluesky, and Twitter. I subscribe to five newspapers and other publications. In retirement, one of the things I became hooked on was WWII history. Going on my 7th tour in August. Also went on a WWI tour last year. I volunteered in the office of a Maryland House Delegate. Trust me, I get it. As a minority I’m much closer to ground zero if anything happens to democracy in the US if the last Trump administration is any indicator. My German friend messaged me and wrote the US reminded him of early 1930’s Germany. I wrote, I know. Thanks for your response.
We are in similar boats, tho I'm not retired but am a first gen Chinese American in healthcare, and with Covid-19 under tffg have already experienced the horror of his prior term, the virulent racism that was exposed, the misogyny, even though I live in a diverse community. I write postcards in a tiny effort to save democracy and we all must do what we can. Have a good day.
Hi JustRaven, my family has been on US soil four 4 generations, but I am the first to grow up with a mother and father because of the Chinese Exclusion Act. What ever the administration, if there is some kerfuffle about China, Chinese Americans or Chinese living in the US get targeted. There is a long, documented history of us getting scapegoated. I feel very lucky to be in this moment because of the sacrifices of all those that came before me - not just my family but all Americans that would not let this dream die. I hope we can keep it going. Stay well.
Ignore the polls. Right Robert, especially when the "esteemed" Nate Cohn leads with several paragraphs on Trump’s strength in the polls and then buries this paragraph midway in his article
“When outlier results come around, it’s generally better to look at the average of polls. As it happens, we released our poll averages for the cycle on Monday: Mr. Trump is ahead by one point over President Biden after including the latest Times/Siena poll. That’s a safer measure of where the race stands." Whaat?
I am beginning to suspect lots of folks are getting sick of media folks trying to do their thinking for them. We will see.
It isn’t only with respect to polls: Within ‘news’ articles, the reporters often include sentences or paragraphs that try to tell us what to think. And that’s even though they might have ‘curated’ facts that make it into the articles (looking at several sources has become increasingly important).
Good point. The biggest freedom of all is the ability to think for yourself.
Gifts? Perhaps the r key doesn't work on their computer?
President Biden's pardon of military members today is a welcomed effort to set right not only the members affected but the rest of us, too. "Many have been denied employment, security clearances, promotions, VA loans, and other VA benefits." What talent has society been missing out on because of court martials or dishonorable discharges? Security clearances - how many spoke multiple languages or had expertise in crucial areas? Denied employment, loans - how many new businesses didn't happen that would have employed thousands of other folks? On and on. All the what ifs are real people.
The polls pop up on my feed regularly. The proliferation of these polls on media is a factor in Democrats becoming demoralized.
Conversely, here in red, red, Naples Fla, we are holding meet and greet parties with fellow Democrats, and our candidates attend. They are quite energizing. At the last party, 5 of the 25 people present described being lifelong Republicans who switched to Democrat because they recognize the threat to democracy.
In some of my meetings with local Republican leaders here, they tell me they do not plan to vote for Trump nor Biden. I'll take it. I am just hoping they don't vote at all., rather than only vote down ballot. But I am not going to argue the point with them.
My only point is that none of that is going to be reflected in the polls.
Remember 1948 !
Let that be a rallying cry.
The "accidental" posting of that opinion draft is highly suspect. If such a thing happens once: it's an accident. If it happens more than once, then it is no accident. That being said, I think there may be a mole in the SC printing office but I can't figure if the mole is a red fish or blue fish. Who does this leakage help or hurt?
Nothing triggers me more than anything coming out of this Supreme Court. These arrogant and corrupt justices simply have no sense of living in the real world, and what the consequences of their decisions are. It’s interesting that any decision they could make that would reflect the majority opinion in this country is one that they delay, or throw back to the lower court, or that they simply kick down the road. They have no problem making a definitive decision when it suits their theocratic and regressive agenda. How dare they have to “dawdle” before deciding that allowing women to die, or be permanently diminished, when they arrive at an ER with a pregnancy-related issue, would be an insane decision to allow! I am becoming increasingly angry at how women are being treated in this new fake religious and antiquated society. They do not even care if women live, as long as they show their base that they are big and bad defenders of a faith that has nothing to do with Christ! This law in Idaho and other states is barbaric and inhumane. Why is there even a question? Federal law trumps state law. The end. Why can’t the Supreme Court just state that??? My prayer is that the Democrats will soon win back positions of power and that we undo all the damage done by these people. And that we establish laws that will never allow them to seize power again. They never learn. They become more and more cruel in pushing their agenda, regardless of the voice of the people. What happened to moderating to stay in power???? If only all Americans were better informed and realized how the Supreme Court is destroying our foundations. And the fact that the leaders of that Court are openly corrupt and utterly disdainful of the rest of us is truly remarkable. There must be changes made in how this body operates, or we should simply ignore their most odious decisions. So hoping that Biden crushes Trump in the debate, and in the election. I would love nothing more than having Alito, Thomas, Gorsuch, and Kavanaugh absolutely freak out when they see that Biden and the Dems are in charge again!!!!