A bias toward action!

October 17, 2022

          First, I am happy to report that the weekend nuptials of my daughter and her fiancé went off without a hitch—except for the “hitch” that was supposed to happen! The wedding ceremony at our local parish was followed by an outdoor reception in Simi Valley, California, where the October temperatures can average 150 degrees. (Okay, that is a slight exaggeration, but you get the point.) Although the forecast 24 hours before the wedding called for “isolated thunderstorms,” we were blessed with mild temperatures and cloudy skies that held their moisture until about an hour after the reception ended. Thanks to the many thousands of you who sent your good wishes. Jill and I appreciate the support of the newsletter community.

A bias toward action!

          As I noted last week, the polls are tightening in many races. Don’t waste time in unproductive worry. Instead, do something to help shape the outcome! The most important thing we can do is to help get out the vote. Two points of note:

          First, candidates need funds for canvassing, digital media, and television ad purchases to counter the perennial message of Republicans that “Democrats are soft on crime”—this from a party that learned to love insurrectionists and rioters who beat up cops. Republicans are dumping dark money into key races; we must support candidates with millions of small-dollar donations from concerned citizens.

           Second, we must get people to the polls. Many of you are engaged in “get out the vote efforts” and should continue to do so! Thank you all—and keep up the good work! If you are looking for more ways to help, read on!

          SwipeBlue. Speaking of “getting out the vote,” studies have shown that a text reminder from a friend to a friend is a highly effective way to motivate people who may be thinking of sitting on the sidelines. Several people I trust have recommended “SwipeBlue,” a phone app that matches your contacts with public voter files and shows you which friends are registered as Democrats, Republicans, independents, or third party. The app does not store your contacts or personal information (but you do have to register with your phone number). You can then review your contacts and “swipe left” to send a personalized text reminding them to vote (the app provides an easily customizable template for the text). To download the app, use Google Play or Apple App store to download SwipeBlue.

          I have downloaded the app and learned that 80% of my “matched” contacts are Democrats. It is easy to generate a helpful, friendly, custom text message. If texting is something that is comfortable for you, SwipeBlue is an easy, effective way to get in the game!

          PostCardsToVoters. If you are looking for a postcarding group to connect with, I heard from Sarah O. today from Postcards To Voters. PTV is currently writing for Raphael Warnock, Stacey Abrams, Beto O’Rourke, three Ohio Supreme Court candidates, and Texas statewide races. Sara O. included a link to an article that she wrote describing her experiences with postcarding (Postcards to Voters Rally for the Midterms! - WESTVIEW NEWS). To join PostCardsToVoters, text “join” to 484-275-2229, or write an email to Join@TonytheDemocrat.org. 

How many times does Trump have to tell us who he is before Americans will believe him?

          Over the weekend, Trump issued a loathsome post on his vanity media platform in which he claimed that he is so popular in Israel that he could be elected Prime Minister. He then criticized “US Jews”, saying “they have to get their act together and appreciate what they have in Israel—before it is too late.” See Rolling Stone, Trump Berates American Jews For Not Having Enough Gratitude Towards Him.

          Like a mob boss, Trump has perfected the art of making a threat that does not literally contain a threat. Trump’s comments above are offensive to “US Jews” on many levels, and I will leave extended analysis to others. But the final phrase “before it is too late” leaves the “overwhelming question”: Too late for what?

          Trump and his defenders will posit innocent explanations for his veiled threat toward “US Jews” and express shock that anyone would read sinister intent into his words. We have been down this road before. When Trump said that there were “very fine people on both sides,” he was talking about a rally that was organized by white nationalists and neo-Nazis. As with Trump’s other dog-whistle rhetoric, he will deny the obvious implications of his statement while white nationalists and neoNazis celebrate in their chat rooms and encrypted messaging apps.

How many times does Trump need to tell us that he is antisemitic before we believe him? And when he mouths words denouncing those groups in a wooden voice and with dead eyes, his followers know his heart is not in the condemnation, but he is doing it “just for show.”

DOJ appeals entire order issued by Judge Cannon regarding special master.

          The piecemeal appeals from Judge Cannon’s order has made it difficult to follow the intricacies of the appellate process. The initial skirmishing is over and the DOJ prevailed in its request to keep the classified documents out of the hands of the special master and Trump’s attorneys. On Friday, the DOJ filed its appeal of the entire order issued by Judge Cannon, including the appointment of the special master in the first instance. The brief is here: Read: Justice Department’s formal appeal of appointment of special master in Mar-a-Lago documents case.

          The consensus among legal experts is that the brief is devastating for Judge Cannon. The DOJ has asked for the 11th Circuit to dismiss the case because Cannon erred in exercising jurisdiction over a search pursuant to an application pending before another judge. As backup arguments in the event that the 11th Circuit doesn’t dismiss the case, the DOJ argues that Cannon improperly enjoined the DOJ from using documents in a criminal investigation and improperly assigned a special master to review those documents. In short, the DOJ has given 11th Circuit three rationales for shutting down the special master review. The high likelihood is that the 11th Circuit will overrule Judge Cannon and dismiss the case.

President Biden’s ban on semiconductor technology to China is big news that no one is talking about.

          Last week, President Biden issued a sweeping and hard-hitting export control on the transfer of semiconductor manufacturing technology to China. Trump issued some scattershot controls that did little to stop China’s unfair manufacturing practices or reduce US dependence on China for semiconductors. Biden’s new rules have been described as “decapitating” the Chinese semiconductor industry, which relies on American technology and American citizens to operate. See Benzinga, China’s Semiconductor Industry ‘Decapitated Overnight’: What’ Annihilation Looks Like’.

          Johnathan Last of The Bulwark explains the export controls and their devastating impact on China’s semiconductor industry. See Jonathan Last in The Bulwark, Joe Biden Just Crushed China’s Semiconductor Industry. As Last writes,

Maybe you should mention this the next time someone suggests that Biden hasn’t been “tough on China.”

Anyway, the Biden administration isn’t perfect. Sometimes it does things you don’t like. Sometimes it does things you do like, but imperfectly.

But add these new, very aggressive, export controls to the list of things Biden has done either pretty well or very well.

          Coming from a writer at The Bulwark (who are smart, skeptical, and fair critics) that is high praise for Biden! Tell a friend!

Concluding Thoughts.

          That’s it for tonight, as we are still recovering from a weekend of celebrations. But I want to close with this thought: It is true that races are tightening according to polling. But many polls are beginning to make a distinction between “registered voters” and “likely voters.” Not all registered voters are likely to vote, but all likely voters are registered voters. In some races, Republicans are doing better among “likely voters” than registered voters—which means that in some places, Republicans are more “enthusiastic” about getting to the polls.

          That finding, if true, seems counterintuitive to me given what is at stake in this election. But assuming for the sake of argument that it is true that somehow Republicans are more excited about voting in 2022 than are Democrats, there is still time to change that outcome. We must get out the vote by any and all means possible. Do not be shy, do not worry about giving offense, and do not worry about having doors slammed in your face. Get people to the polls. When that happens, we all win.

          Talk to you tomorrow!