Where we stand.

October 9, 2022

          With four weeks and a day remaining before the midterms, a reader (Kathy D.) wrote in the Comments section over the weekend: “Like everyone, I am on pins and needles about the elections. I feel that polling has not been accurate for the last 2 or 3 elections and so I am hesitant to trust them.” Kathy’s comment succinctly describes how tens of millions of Americans feel about the midterms. So, now is an appropriate time to ask, “Where do we stand?”

          Let’s start with the good news. The fact that readers are on “pins and needles” is because the outcome of the midterms is up for grabs. (Some pollsters disagree; more on that in a moment.) “Up for grabs” is huge progress from six months ago, when the media was busy deciding whether Republicans would take the House by 30 or 40 seats. Today, even the most bullish conservative pollsters recognize that Democrats have put control of Congress in play—and have a path to success. The fact that Republicans still have a “better-than-even” projected chance for control of Congress is portrayed by the media as bad news for Democrats when, in fact, it reflects a dramatic downward slide in Republican fortunes. And we still have four weeks to change public opinion and motivate turnout among Democrats and Republicans! Given the substantial progress Democrats have made over the last six months, we have a reasonable basis to believe we can achieve victory—and should therefore work harder than ever to make it over the goal line.

          I believe that the polls have failed to capture the passion and volatility of this unique moment in American history and, therefore, have little regard for their predictive value in the midterms. Still, when I read headlines with predictions for the midterms, I sometimes read the underlying stories to understand the reason for the pollsters’ conclusions. While I don’t mean to trivialize the work of reputable polling organizations, the analysis distills down to this: Determine the partisan “lean” of a district and assign a probability for the projected winner based on the “lean.”

          To state the obvious, enthusiasm and turnout can overcome partisan “lean” on any given day. That is what happened in 2020: Trump received more votes than any incumbent president in history, but Joe Biden received more votes than any presidential candidate in history. Moreover, the outcomes predicted by pollsters are not deterministic, they are probabilistic. Thus, when Trump won in 2016, even though pollsters assigned him only a 30% chance of winning, pollsters rejected the assertion that “They got it wrong.” Instead, they said that Trump’s win “was within the 30% possibility” assigned by their models. So, too, with current polls. Even polls that predict Republicans are more likely than Democrats to gain control of Congress assign Democrats a substantial possibility of maintaining control of Congress.

          Admittedly, none of the above is scientific. It is possible that more voters will be concerned about the price of gasoline than whether they have control over reproductive choices, have free and fair elections, and are protected from discrimination based on fundamental aspects of their identity. But that doesn’t feel like what is happening on the ground, regardless of what the headlines say.

          Finally, it is worth repeating that the test for “winning” or “losing” the midterms is not defined by control of Congress. Whatever else happens on November 8th, Joe Biden will wield veto power for two more years. While GOP control of Congress may be painful and unpleasant, Republicans would not be able to advance a legislative agenda. Moreover, there are crucial races at the state, county, and municipal levels by the thousands. Winning control of state legislatures and governorships is just as important as maintaining control of Congress—perhaps more so in this post-Dobbs world.

          So, four weeks out, where do we stand? We are in much better shape than anyone predicted six months ago, and we have a reasonable chance (but not a guarantee) of maintaining control of Congress. So, keep doing everything to win as many votes on November 8th as possible.

Trump’s motivation for stealing national defense secrets.

          Trump is transactional in all things. Trump ascribes value to things or people only to the extent that they can be “traded” for something Trump wants or needs. Over the weekend, the NYTimes reported that Trump floated the idea that he “trade” stolen national defense secrets for information from the National Archives regarding the Mueller investigation. See Business Insider, Trump Wanted to Swap Mar-a-Lago Files for ‘Sensitive’ Russia Probe Docs: NYT. This revelation follows hard on the heels of a report that the National Archives and DOJ believe that Trump has still not returned all documents he stole from the government.

          If it is true that Trump contemplated an “exchange” of stolen documents for records in the possession of the National Archives, it is difficult to see how the DOJ can avoid indicting Trump on espionage and obstruction of justice. Also worrisome for Trump is that the NYTimes’ reports on this issue include sourcing from one of Trump’s lawyers—or from someone privy to the internal discussions of those lawyers. If those internal sources are talking to the NYTimes, you know those sources are talking to the DOJ. Trump should be worried about who in his inner circle is cooperating with the DOJ.

          Here’s the point: Although it has been a long time coming, it seems that Trump’s uncanny ability to slither out of accountability for obvious criminality is coming to an end. That can only be good for the rule of law and the strength of our democracy.

The real problem with Tommy Tuberville’s racist remarks.

          Over the weekend, Alabama Senator Tommy Tuberville unleashed an unabashed string of racist claims equating those who seek reparations (i.e., descendants of enslaved persons) with “the people who do the crime[s].” Tuberville’s meaning was clear and repugnant, needing no explanation. It also needs no amplification, so I will not link to the video or to stories that embed the video of his remarks. But I will describe the most disturbing aspect of the incident: The Trump crowd cheered wildly in response to Tuberville’s plainly racist remarks.

          In other words, leading GOP politicians and some Trump supporters have dropped all pretense about their racial animus. They do not view being called racist as a mark of shame; it is, instead, a perverse source of pride and identity. While those ugly undercurrents have always been present in American society, their use as a political rallying cry is white supremacism in the tradition of the Ku Klux Klan. But that is not the worst part: Although Tuberville’s remarks have been met with scattered criticism by some Republicans, the vast majority have remained silent—suggesting that racism has become a tenet of the GOP platform.

          People of good conscience and decency in the Republican Party must speak out to condemn Tuberville. He should be expelled from the Senate or censured (at the very least). Instead, he has just secured himself a prime speaking spot in future Trump rallies. This retrograde moment of white supremacism will pass (as others have), but only if decent people of every political persuasion condemn such appeals in the strongest possible terms.

January 6th Committee hearing on Thursday.

          The final (?) hearing of the January 6th Committee will take place on Thursday, October 13th. We should take a moment to reflect on the achievements of the J6th Committee over the last nine months. Before the Committee began its public hearings, they were viewed as a “political gamble,” but they have been an unqualified success that surpassed expectations on every measure. The professionalism and meticulousness of the hearings have been inspiring.

          Most, importantly, the hearings connected with the American people and spurred the DOJ to accelerate the pace and scope of its investigations of Trump and his co-conspirators in the attempted coup. If Trump and his associates are indicted in the next year, the J6th Committee deserves a significant amount of credit.

          In answering the question of “Where do we stand today?”, we must recognize that the J6th Committee has materially advanced the prospects for holding Trump accountable for his crimes. That is a significant development that should not be taken for granted.

Explosion on the Kerch Strait Bridge in Crimea.

          Over the weekend, an explosion hit the Kerch Strait Bridge that connects Crimea and Russia. Putin immediately condemned the attack as “terrorism” by Ukraine—a statement dripping with hypocrisy and self-pity. Putin ordered the bridge built after Russia illegally annexed Crimea in 2014—a textbook example of state-sponsored terrorism on a civilian population.

          The attack on the Kerch Strait Bridge has rattled Putin and his military command structure to the core. If you are interested in Russia’s war on the Ukrainian people, I highly recommend the discussion by The Institute for the Study of War, Special Edition on Russian Domestic Responses to the Kerch Strait Bridge Explosion. In short, Putin is losing confidence among Russian nationalist military bloggers (who serve as “social influencers” in Russia), among his general staff, and among the Russian public. The ISW report details the extent of the loss of confidence in Putin, which is truly remarkable.

          But . . . no one should ever underestimate the willingness of the Russian army to inflict brutality and terror on civilian populations or of Putin to suppress internal dissent with murderous purges. As Ukraine succeeds in inflicting ever more serious blows against the Russian military, the pressure on Putin to produce a battlefield victory grows. [Update: As I write the newsletter, I just received a “news alert” about explosions in central Kyiv—an attack on a civilian center.] The situation in Ukraine is becoming more volatile with every Ukrainian success. That is not the scenario that any military expert predicted in February 2022.

Concluding Thoughts.

          My wife and I attended a 65th birthday party for a lifelong friend we met in college. At the party, I had the opportunity to chat with several readers of the newsletter. Whenever I do so, I am struck by the fact that what people want and need is a source of hope and optimism during unsettling times. I was gratified to hear that readers believe that I temper my message of hope and optimism with a healthy dose of realism—which is what I attempted to do in the opening article of this newsletter.

          Each of us can serve as a source of hope and optimism for others in our lives. It doesn’t take much to help get someone back on their feet after the latest outrage washes over us (like the Tommy Tuberville story). I told the readers at the party that I sometimes flag but get my boost from readers who send me emails and post comments. Some of the experiences recounted by readers are downright humbling. I merely comment on the news, which serves a helpful purpose to some, but there are readers of this newsletter who are doing the incredibly difficult work of “retail democracy” in hostile territory. When I hear their stories, I renew my resolve.

          For those readers who serve as my inspiration, thank you! But it doesn’t take extraordinary work to serve as someone’s source of inspiration and renewal. The next four weeks will be anxiety-producing. Stay in touch with friends, family, and fellow activists. Be supportive and help people gain perspective, but most of all encourage people to maintain a bias toward action. We will have plenty of time to deconstruct November 8th in the weeks that follow, but we will never be able to recapture the next four weeks if we fail to put them to good use.  

          As always, we have every reason to be hopeful but no reason to be complacent!

          Talk to you tomorrow!