“When you come to a fork in the road, take it.”

July 10, 2024

President Biden delivered a forceful speech on Tuesday at a ceremony commemorating the 75th Anniversary of NATO. In the speech, President Biden reaffirmed the commitment of the US and NATO to the defense of Ukraine. Biden said, in part,

Before this war, Putin thought NATO would break. Today, NATO is stronger than it’s ever been in its history. When this senseless war began, Ukraine was a free country. Today it’s still a free country and the war will end with Ukraine remaining a free and independent country.

Russia will not prevail. Ukraine will prevail.

President Biden also announced that the US would provide Ukraine with five new strategic air defense systems. In addition, the leaders attending the NATO summit are expected to announce that Ukraine’s path to NATO membership is “irreversible.” See The Guardian, Biden promises new air defenses for Ukraine in forceful NATO Speech.

A full video of President Biden’s speech is here: MeidasTouch on Twitter: Full Speech: President Joe Biden passionately defends democracy, NATO, Ukraine, and rips Putin in a powerful speech.

Notably, the terms “NATO” and “Ukraine” are absent from the Republican Party Platform for 2024, an absence that mirrors Trump's hostility to both NATO and Ukraine. See Politico, NATO plans, Trump laughs. (“Trump will likely be advised to shutter an alliance office in Kyiv and lengthen Ukraine’s already long path to NATO membership.”)

Project 2025 describes Trump's pullback from NATO as a plan to “reduce US force posture in Europe” while limiting US involvement in NATO to providing “our nuclear deterrent.” Let me decode that for you: The US will abandon its military presence in Europe and rely solely on the threat of nuclear war to contain Russian expansionism. What could go wrong?

Joe Biden’s support for NATO and Ukraine promises a more stable Europe and a more secure America. Trump's vision of isolationism, buttressed by the threat of nuclear annihilation, will make everyone in the world less secure.

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We are at a fork in the road. We must take it.

Yogi Berra is erroneously credited with the aphorism, “When you come to a fork in the road, take it.” Attribution aside, there is an essential truth in the saying: If we remain frozen with indecision at a moment that demands action, we will fix our chances of success at 0.00%.

If we act thoughtfully and in good faith, we risk being wrong, but we create the possibility of success. Our odds of success immediately improve by acting, even if we act with imperfect information.

We are standing at a fork in the road. We must take it. We must choose a path and commit to it. Not everyone needs to choose the same path, but those stalled at the fork will have their futures decided by others bold enough to act. We are better than that. Our country deserves better from us than indecision and worry. We are called to action. We must respond.

The fork in the road represents a reality that defines our options. Joe Biden has said that he will not withdraw from the race. Unless and until that changes, one fork in the road involves doing everything possible to secure Biden’s reelection.

The alternative fork is not, “Joe Biden should withdraw.” See the above paragraph about Joe Biden not withdrawing. The alternative path is identifying a replacement candidate, working to secure the nomination for that candidate, and raising money to ensure that candidate has the support necessary to win. That is a reasonable, understandable, and honorable decision.

The fork in the road presents us with two alternative paths: support Joe Biden or support a replacement. Declaring only that “Biden should withdraw” is to remain standing place at the fork until someone else decides our future. We are better than that. Our country deserves better from us than indecision and worry. We are called to action. We must respond.

As I have replied to hundreds of readers, if you want a candidate other than Biden, I respect your right to choose a different path. But time is short, so bold and decisive action is necessary to achieve victory on an alternative path.

I believe supporting Joe Biden is the right path. Many tens of thousands of readers of this newsletter agree with that choice. But no position I have taken in the seven years of this newsletter has resulted in as much disagreement from readers. Thousands have written to respectfully disagree. I have read all of your notes, even if I did not have time to respond.

However, hundreds of readers have written emails attacking or insulting me. I mention this fact not as a ploy for sympathy but to remind everyone (as I have reminded those readers) that insulting someone is not an effective way to change their minds.

Those who support President Biden do so in good faith. Those who wish to replace him also act in good faith. Neither side should ascribe ill will to the other. Insulting, attacking, or demeaning either side will only impede our path to victory.

Time is short. Very. Comedian Jon Stewart wants us to have an “open conversation.” Some Democratic leaders and commentators want to run a series of “mini primaries.” Others want to defer a decision until Democrats can hold an “open convention.” Timothy Snyder has suggested several scenarios for settling on the right path forward.

Without regard to the merits of those ideas, each involves delay. In the meantime, Donald Trump is the GOP presumptive nominee, and Biden is the Democratic presumptive nominee. Trump isn’t going to suspend his campaign so Democrats can sort out the issue among themselves.

If some Democrats want a process before choosing a fork in the road, they are entitled to engage in one. But other Democrats are entitled to continue to support the presumptive Democratic nominee at a time when Republicans are fully engaged in their campaign to elect their aspiring dictator.

Indeed, we cannot suspend the Democratic presidential campaign because some in the party doubt Joe Biden. We must continue to support Joe Biden even as some in the party discuss a different path. That is what I am going to do. The question that each of us must answer is, “What am I going to do?” That is a question about action, not desire.

Like many readers of this newsletter, I am puzzled and disappointed by the perseveration and equivocation of some congressional Democrats. A few strong voices in support of President Biden have emerged, including Heather Cox Richardson and Lawrence O’Donnell. Many grassroots organizations have adopted the sensible position of keeping up the hard work of relational politics despite some disagreement among their members. Those grassroots organizations and their members deserve our gratitude and support.

My wife and I have a private joke. It is that I am “the biggest nobody on Substack.” By that, we mean that everyone with a newsletter in the politics section of Substack with a greater readership than this newsletter is famous in their own right (deservedly so). They are journalists, authors, scholars, cable news commentators, political consultants, and social media stars. As I have said on many occasions, I am a guy with a laptop and plenty of opinions. (I'm not fishing for compliments, so please refrain.)

My point is this: One side of the debate over Joe Biden’s continued candidacy has fewer and fewer advocates. Someone must fill the increasing vacuum. While it would be great if lots of high-profile commentators would do so, there aren’t many who are stepping up. So, I am stepping into the breach. Joe Biden is the Democratic Party’s presumptive nominee, and I support him until and unless he tells us he does not wish to be the nominee—and he has already said that he will remain in the race.

Could things change? Sure. Anything is possible. I am open to new facts. I hope you are, too.

I acknowledge that I could be wrong. I hope you will acknowledge that you could be wrong, as well. If we disagree, we remain allies, not enemies. But we are at a fork in the road and must take it. If you choose a different path, I beg you to be a leader who rallies others to your cause—but not by attacking the Democratic presumptive nominee or those who support him. That is a risky and destructive strategy. It is exactly what Trump is hoping for.

If you are looking for a leader who supports Joe Biden, follow me. But even more importantly, you must also be a leader—even if being a leader is outside your comfort zone. That is what it will take to win.

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Join me in a fundraiser for Joe Biden

So, this is me putting my money where my mouth is: I will host a fundraiser for Joe Biden on Thursday, July 18, 2024, at 8:00 p.m. Eastern /5:00 p.m. Pacific.

I did a similar fundraiser in 2020 for Biden’s campaign. Joe Biden needs money to run his campaign in 2024, but he also needs small-dollar donors to demonstrate to the doubters that Democrats have Joe Biden’s back. Do I hope you make a big donation? Sure! However, the mere fact of supporting Joe Biden with a donation of any size is at least as important as the donation amount. Suggested donations start at $25 and go up from there.

I will be talking to Virginia McGregor--a reader of this newsletter who has become a friend over the last four years through emails about my newsletter (like many of you). Virginia is the Treasurer for the DNC. We planned this event before the debate, but it could not be more timely and important.

I hope you will join Virginia and me as we discuss the state of the race and Joe Biden’s efforts to improve the lives of all Americans.

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Concluding Thoughts

Among the many bracing things readers have said to me in private emails was this comment from today: “Given your blind (sic) support for Biden, you had better guarantee that he wins.”

I can’t “guarantee” that Joe Biden will win. It was a close race in 2020, a close race in 2024 before the debate, and Biden has new challenges after the debate. Indeed, my “guarantee” to my adult daughters that Hillary Clinton would defeat Trump in 2016 led me to begin writing this daily newsletter more than seven years ago.

Just like I can’t guarantee that Joe Biden will win, those who seek to replace him can’t guarantee that a different candidate will win.

But I can give many guarantees to readers of this newsletter. Here they are:

• Joe Biden will grow older each day, and so will we all.

• Joe Biden will continue his lifelong habit of making gaffes and misspeaking.

• Joe Biden will continue to have a stutter.

• Joe Biden will continue to have a stiff gait, as his annual medical reports have disclosed.

• Joe Biden will continue to be a good and decent man.

• Joe Biden will seek to represent all Americans.

• Joe Biden will seek to uphold the Constitution.

• Joe Biden will continue to be the most accomplished president of the last 75 years.

• Donald Trump will lie with every word out of his mouth.

• Donald Trump will continue to put himself above all else.

• Donald Trump will remain a convicted felon.

• Donald Trump will remain an adjudicated sexual abuser.

• Donald Trump will remain the only candidate in the race who frequently associated with Jeffrey Epstein.

• Donald Trump will remain the only president to attempt a coup and incite an insurrection.

• Donald Trump will remain the only former president indicted for unlawfully retaining defense secrets.

• Donald Trump will remain the only candidate who enlisted the assistance of “Russia” to obtain stolen emails from the DNC.

• Donald Trump will remain the only former president who sought to use American tax dollars to bribe Ukraine to fabricate negative stories about his opponent.

• Donald Trump will be the only candidate for president in 2024 who admits that he aspires to be a dictator.

I could go on, but I hope the above will satisfy the reader who was looking for “guarantees” about Joe Biden’s race for the presidency.

One final guarantee: I will work tirelessly to elect Democrats up and down the ballot in 2024 and beyond. I hope you will, too.

Talk to you tomorrow!