What the heck just happened?

June 26, 2023

          I have no idea what happened in Russia over the weekend. I doubt Vladimir Putin does either. We know that Vladimir Putin, Yevgeny Prigozhin, and Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko issued statements that purported to describe what happened. Whether those statements bear any resemblance to the truth is open to question. That’s the problem when the state controls the media and converts it into an instrument of disinformation to confuse, deceive, and immobilize the public.

          That is the most important lesson the US can draw from whatever just happened in Russia: A press that is free, responsible, and dedicated to the truth is a necessary condition for democracy. Not sufficient, but necessary. The example of Russian media as a worthless institution compounding confusion during a time of crisis highlights why the routinization of lies and conspiracy theories in the US right-wing media is corrosive and dangerous.

          In the US mainstream media, there is plenty of good analysis about what may have happened in Russia and the possible consequences. Two highly cited articles are from Anne Applebaum in The Atlantic, Putin Is Caught in His Own Trap and David Remnick of The New Yorker, Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Rebellion: Putin’s Weakness Unmasked.  (Both articles should be accessible to all readers.)

          Applebaum’s thesis is that Putin has spent decades convincing Russians not to care about politics. He succeeded, much to his detriment in the current crisis because he was unable to rouse the people to care about Prigozhin’s rebellion. Remnick argues that Putin is a lame duck and that the rebellion has shifted the popular thinking in Russia to the “post-Putin” era.

          I won’t try to describe what happened in detail. For that, I recommend the above articles and Ellen Ioanes in Vox, Russia’s wild last 24 hours and the Wagner group’s march to Moscow, explained. In broad strokes, the drama unfolded as follows:

• Prigozhin kicked off the rebellion by claiming that the Russian Ministry of Defense (“MoD”) had conducted a missile attack on Wagner Group mercenaries in rearguard areas of Ukraine. He blamed Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and said that the Wagner Group would “end the evil brought by the military leadership” in the MoD. He also claimed that senior military leaders were lying to Putin about the success of the war and announced that the Wagner Group would remove them from leadership. Bracing! See Institute for the Study of War, Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 23, 2023.

• Putin responded by claiming that Prigozhin had betrayed Russia and would be charged criminally. Putin called on all elements of Russian defense and security forces to stop Prigozhin.

• Despite Putin’s call for resistance, Prigozhin strolled into Rostov on-Don, the Russian city serving as the command center for the Ukraine war. After receiving a warm welcome from the citizens of Rostov, Prigozhin headed for Moscow with 25,000 troops.

• Prigozhin made it about 3/4th of the way to Moscow unmolested, when Belarus President Lukashanko announced that Prigozhin had agreed to “stand down.” See ISW, Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 25, 2023.

• And then, “Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov announced that Russian authorities will drop the criminal case against Prigozhin and that Prigozhin will go to Belarus, thanking Lukashenko for his role in mediating the deal with the “higher goal to avoid bloodshed.” ISW.

          The above summary omits important details, and I cannot vouch for any of the facts. I am repeating what the press is reporting based on untrustworthy sources.

          As I write on Sunday evening, Putin and his senior military leaders have not been seen in 24 hours (per the NYTimes: After Wagner Mutiny, Russians Note Absence of Kremlin Leaders.)

          To say the least, these developments are not good for Putin. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said

“[The rebellion] raises profound questions. It shows real cracks. We can’t speculate or know exactly where that’s going to go. We do know that Putin has a lot more to answer for in the weeks and months ahead.”

          From the US perspective, President Biden did what we should expect: He communicated with NATO and European allies, seeking to inject calm and stability during a time of volatility and danger. The US intelligence community reportedly knew that Prigozhin was amassing troops and equipment for a confrontation with Moscow. It is reassuring to know that the internal rebellion did not surprise the US intelligence community.

          While Biden was acting to protect the interests of the US, the response from MAGA extremists and the right-wing press has been beyond the pale. The de facto leader of the House GOP caucus, Marjorie Taylor Greene, raised the wildly irresponsible and dangerous suggestion that the US may have been behind Prigozhin’s rebellion. She tweeted,

“After our government has been funding a proxy war with Russia in Ukraine for over a year, I sure hope our government isn’t behind a coup attempt currently happening in Russia. Regime change in a nuclear-armed country may lead to terrible consequences the American people don’t want.”

          Putin will get around to blaming the US soon enough; he doesn’t need any encouragement from Marjorie Taylor Greene.

          Fox News infotainment personality Maria Bartiromo claimed that the rebellion in Russia was a ruse by Biden to distract attention from the Hunter Biden “scandal.” Bartiromo said,

“The White House wanted to give the media something else to cover and this is the M.O. This is the way they do things. On Friday I said, ‘Wow, what a blockbuster WhatsApp message [from Hunter Biden]. I’m sure there will be an enormous story over the weekend that the White House will be pushing to take the story off the front page,’ and sure enough, we’ve got the State Department drumming up the drama that took place over the weekend in Russia.”

          I am going to include the following paragraph in my first draft of the newsletter and see if my better judgment in the editing process leads to its removal: You have to work really hard to be as stupid as Maria Bartiromo. If she truly believes that the US “drummed up” news of the rebellion in Russia to detract from a non-story about Hunter Biden, her family needs to stage a medical intervention ASAP. She is a danger to herself and others.

          There is much more to say about this story, but the situation is still unfolding so less is more. But I close with this disquieting thought: The failed rebellion has reinforced the malign confluence of interests of Trump and Putin in a Trump victory in 2024. Trump’s best defense to the federal indictment is to win the presidency in 2024. Putin’s hope for hanging on to power in Russia is for Trump to win in 2024 and cease US support for Ukraine. (Putin’s fate is increasingly tethered to victory in Ukraine.)

          The last time that the interests of Trump and Putin overlapped in 2016, Russia engaged in widespread and systematic interference in the US presidential election. Putin’s interference succeeded because the election was decided by razor-thin margins in a half-dozen states. We cannot let that happen again! More reason to ensure massive voter turnout in 2024!

Speaking of Trump running for president to avoid prison . . . .

          Conservative Judge Michael Luttig (retired) penned an op-ed in the NYTimes in which he exhorts Republicans to abandon Trump. See op-ed in NYTimes, It’s Not Too Late for the Republican Party.  (This article is accessible to everyone.)

          Luttig writes about the absurdity of Trump (and his wannabe clones) running for president on an “anti-Constitution” platform. Luttig writes,

“Building the Republican campaign around the newly indicted front-runner is a colossal political miscalculation, as comedic as it is tragic for the country. No assemblage of politicians except the Republicans would ever conceive of running for the American presidency by running against the Constitution and the rule of law. But that’s exactly what they’re planning.”

          Luttig’s op-ed highlights an inherent feature of most of the GOP field of presidential candidates: In one way or another, they are running against the Constitution. They promise to pardon Trump and the January 6^th defendants. They pledge to convert the DOJ into a cross between the Praetorian Guard and Brown Shirts. They seek to diminish every liberty that is in tension with their personal religious beliefs.

          Judge Luttig concludes:

“There is no path to the White House for Republicans with Mr. Trump. He would need every single Republican and independent vote, and there are untold numbers of Republicans and independents who will never vote for him, if for no other perfectly legitimate reason than that he has corrupted America’s democracy and is now attempting to corrupt the country’s rule of law.”

Simon Rosenberg discusses the latest NBC polling.

          You know my position on polls—ignore them, especially this far out from an election. But if you want to talk about polls, you should do it the way Simon Rosenberg does in his Substack blog, Hopium Chronicles, New NBC News Poll Is a Good One for Biden and the Dems. In short, the trends are good for Biden and Democrats in general. Rosenberg notes,

“Biden leads Trump 49-45. He leads women (55-38), 18-34 year olds (65-30), Latinos (66-26), Indies (47-33). These are good, healthy numbers.”

          Importantly. Rosenberg includes all the qualifiers and limitations that are appropriate when discussing polls this far out from an election. If you want a positive boost within a framework of realism, check out Rosenberg’s most recent post, linked above.

Concluding Thoughts.

          I have a complicated schedule this week, so I may send shorter newsletters tomorrow and Thursday. Tomorrow my Managing Editor and I will watch the Los Angeles Angels beat the Chicago White Sox. Thursday, we are traveling to Boston.

          In response to reader requests, I report that I have finished building the frame for the swing (from scratch) using 2-inch galvanized pipe and Speed Rail connectors. The legs are set 4-feet in the ground with 3-feet of QuickCrete for footings. Due to a FedEx shipping delay, I am awaiting the swing seats and hardware. Will post a picture when the swing is completed. After purchasing all of the materials, I needed only two additional trips to the metal supply shop and two trips to the hardware store!

          A reader sent a passage from Shakespeare’s Richard II, Act 3, which resonates with this moment in world history:

For God's sake, let us sit upon the ground

And tell sad stories of the death of kings;

How some have been deposed; some slain in war,

Some haunted by the ghosts they have deposed;

Some poison'd by their wives: some sleeping kill'd;

All murder'd: for within the hollow crown

That rounds the mortal temples of a king

Keeps Death his court and there the antic sits,

Scoffing his state and grinning at his pomp,

Allowing him a breath, a little scene,

To monarchize, be fear'd and kill with looks,

Infusing him with self and vain conceit,

As if this flesh which walls about our life,

Were brass impregnable, and humour'd thus

Comes at the last and with a little pin

Bores through his castle wall, and farewell king!

Talk to you tomorrow!