We have been warned.

May 1, 2024

On a day of many important stories, the most important news came from Donald Trump's interview with Time Magazine. See Donald Trump on What His Second Term Would Look Like | TIME. In the interview, Trump confirmed that he will attempt to exercise dictatorial powers in a second term.

We have been warned.

We ignore Trump's threats at our peril and the peril of our democracy.

In describing his fever dream of autocratic powers, Trump said he would take (or allow) the following actions:

• Allow states to monitor the pregnancies of women to ensure they comply with abortion bans (a grotesque violation of liberty, privacy, and dignity).

• Fire US attorneys who refuse to prosecute defendants targeted by Trump (a violation of US norms dating to the creation of the Department of Justice).

• Initiate mass deportations of alleged illegal immigrants using the US military and local law enforcement (neither of which are authorized to enforce US immigration law).

• Pardon insurrectionists who attacked the Capitol on January 6.

• Prosecute President Biden (for unspecified and non-existent crimes).

• Deploy the National Guard to cities and states across America—likely those with predominately Democratic populations (presumably under the Insurrection Act, a deployment would violate the terms of the Act and implementing regulations).

• Withhold funds from states in the exercise of his personal discretion (a violation of the Impoundment Control Act of 1974).

• Abandon NATO and South Asian allies if he feels the countries are not paying enough for their own defense.

• Shutter the White House pandemic-preparedness office.

• Fire tens (hundreds?) of thousands of civil servants and replace them with Trump acolytes with dubious qualifications (other than loyalty to Trump).

Most readers of this newsletter understand the seriousness of Trump's threats and are working tirelessly to prevent a second Trump term. But tens of millions of Americans seem oblivious or apathetic in the face of an imminent and dire threat.

If elected, will Trump succeed in achieving any of his stated goals? No—not if Democrats continue their resistance in the courts, in Congress, in state legislatures, and in the hearts and minds of most Americans.

However, whether Trump succeeds in achieving his stated objectives is beside the point. He will attempt to do so—and his attempts will tear at the fabric of democracy and destroy legal norms that have served as the bedrock of our republic since its founding.

To be clear, I am not attempting to frighten readers of this newsletter. To the contrary, I believe that we can and will defeat Trump—or outlast him, whatever it takes. But the interview confirms that we are not frantic alarmists exaggerating the threat posed by Trump.

No, far from it.

When we challenge the milquetoast, both-siderism reporting of the media or the normalization of Trump by spineless politicians, we are not overreacting. We are sounding the alarm in a responsible, necessary way. For reasons that defy comprehension, our warnings have been unheeded—often dismissed, minimized, or patronized.

We must redouble our efforts. Commit the above list to memory. Copy the URL so you can forward this newsletter or the Time Magazine article to friends, colleagues, and complete strangers who doubt that Trump is a danger to democracy. Pick two or three issues and be prepared to discuss them when the moment arises. We have been warned—and we must act accordingly.

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Trump held in criminal contempt

To the disappointment of many, Judge Juan Merchan issued only $9,000 in fines against Trump for serial violations of the gag order in the election interference trial. The order is here: Decision and Order | People's Motion for Contempt.

Don’t be disappointed. Judge Merchan is acting in a measured, strategic manner. Trump appears to be begging for Judge Merchan to jail him for criminal contempt. Trump likely believes that a short prison stay will create an issue for appeal and generate a wave of sympathy and donations for Trump.

Rather than resorting to jail as a punishment of first resort, Merchan used the fines and an explicit threat of incarceration as leverage against future violations. Merchan wrote,

Defendant is hereby warned that the Court will not tolerate continued willful violations of its lawful orders and that if necessary and appropriate under the circumstances, it will impose an incarceratory punishment . . . .

The significance of the order cannot be overstated. A former president of the United States has been found in criminal contempt for violating a court order. Trump has crossed another line in his long march into lawlessness. The finding of contempt should be deemed to be disqualifying by every editorial board and opinion editor in every outlet in America.

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Trump's trial for election interference

The Manhattan prosecutors continue to make slow, steady progress in their effort to establish that Trump falsified documents to interfere in the 2016 presidential election. The prosecution is frontloading witnesses with strong credibility to establish the sleazy details of the deal that Michael Cohen engineered for Trump. The prosecution hopes that by the time it calls Michael Cohen, he will merely be corroborating much of what other witnesses have already described in their testimony.

But Michael Cohen is the key linking Trump to the falsified business records. His credibility will be attacked by counsel for Trump. For an excellent discussion of the developments on Tuesday and the strategy of layering witnesses around Michael Cohen, see Talking Points Memo, Latest Witness Is Leaving A Michael Cohen-Shaped Hole In Description Of Hush Money Scheme.

Per TPM,

Cohen is seen as a uniquely vulnerable and valuable witness for the DA. He can testify to key parts of the prosecution’s case, namely that Trump falsified business records in reimbursing him for the hush money payments.

For that reason, his testimony is expected to be a major moment in the trial. It is unknown when — or if — he will appear on the witness stand.

But on Tuesday, the prosecution seemed to be building toward calling Cohen.

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Today’s Edition Zoom fundraiser with Colin Allred, candidate for US Senate for Texas

Join me as I host a virtual fundraiser and conversation with Colin Allred, candidate for US Senate for Texas, on Tuesday, May 14 at 5:30 pm Pacific / 7:30 pm Central / 8:30 pm Eastern.

Rep. Colin Allred is running against Senator Ted Cruz to represent the people of Texas in the US Senate. Colin is a formidable candidate with the experience, savvy, and heart necessary to achieve a rare feat—winning election to a statewide office in Texas as a Democrat. If anyone can do it, Colin Allred can. Watch Colin’s fantastic campaign launch video here: Our Team is Texas | Colin Allred for US Senate.

Although fundraisers for candidates for US Senate are usually out of the reach of most donors, I reached out to Colin Allred’s campaign to see if Colin would be willing to meet with readers of Today’s Edition newsletter in a fundraising format that is widely accessible to donors of all means. Colin’s campaign readily agreed!

So, please join me (and hopefully hundreds of Today’s Edition readers) in a Zoom fundraiser to help Colin Allred defeat Ted Cruz! The event will be on Tuesday, May 14 at 5:30 pm Pacific / 7:30 pm Central / 8:30 pm Eastern.

At my request, the campaign has set the lowest donation level at $25 to allow as many readers as possible to join. I hope hundreds of readers will take advantage of this unique opportunity as Colin and I talk about the race in Texas and national issues. If you can donate more—please do! Colin can beat Ted Cruz. Imagine a US Senate without Ted Cruz—and with Colin Allred in his place! It would be a different institution!

The link to donate and register is here:  Colin Allred for US Senate | Today's Edition Virtual Fundraiser.

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Opportunities for Reader Engagement

Postcards to Swing States has begun sign-ups for their postcard program for November! They’ll mail you FREE postcards along with voter lists and instructions with proven message options. You’ll need to provide the stamps and mail the postcards to voters in October.

Their goal is 25.8 million postcards to boost Democratic turnout across 11 states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Nevada, Ohio, Montana, Florida and Texas. They’ll add sign-ups for competitive House races in other states in July.

Sign up at www.turnoutpac.org/postcards. They have a helpful promotion kit with links to their card designs, their research, and easy ways to help spread the word about their effort to friends and family: https://bit.ly/PostcardPromo.

Postcards to Swing States has organized volunteers to write more than 43 million postcards since 2020.

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Concluding Thoughts

I am hearing from many readers who are worried that the war in Gaza, protests on US campuses, and the protest votes against President Biden will lead to a Trump victory in November. Those worries are reasonable, understandable, and rational. The issues and events are roiling the Democratic coalition in a way that does not affect the Republican Party. They are affecting the Democratic Party because there is a diversity of opinion and willingness to have a substantive debate about the issues that is missing from the Republican response to the issues.

There are many paths forward and enough time for major developments to affect the election dynamic in the US. President Biden is pressing for a ceasefire with the help of Egypt and Qatar. Prime Minister Netanyahu is losing support inside and outside of Israel. And leading Republicans are vilifying Palestinian protesters in a way that is unfair and a continuation of the Islamophobic policies of the Trump administration.

Indeed, Trump has already compared students expressing opposition to the war in Gaza to the “Unite the Right” neo-Nazis in Charlottesville and to the insurrectionists who attacked the Capitol on January 6. Trump will make several campaign speeches over the weekend and will likely comment on the events on the Columbia campus Tuesday evening.

Nothing Trump says will be helpful, measured, or calming. He has already vowed to reinstitute his travel ban from majority Muslim countries and bar refugees from Gaza. See The Guardian, Trump vows to expand Muslim ban and bar Gaza refugees if he wins presidency.

I am not suggesting that we must wait for Trump to alienate those opposing the war in Gaza. I am suggesting that it is inevitable that he will do so —and that Joe Biden will continue to make progress both on the substance and relations within the Democratic Party. It will be a slow, difficult process that will not change everyone’s minds.

But as with most issues, Joe Biden doesn’t need to convince everyone. He is locked in a close race and must focus on persuadable independents and Republicans. With hard work and positive developments, he may also win back some Democrats who are angry and upset with his policies toward Israel and Palestine.

As difficult as the issues are, there is a path forward for Biden that is not available to Trump. Biden is operating in good faith and is seeking solutions. Trump is not. That difference will become more pronounced as events unfold over the next several months.

While the above may not be a complete or satisfactory answer, we must recognize that there are no magic solutions to the complicated problems embedded in the war in Gaza. We must all strive to be a part of the solution if we hope to make progress.

That’s the best I can do tonight to address reader concerns. I invite others to share their thoughts about productive solutions.

Talk to to you tomorrow!