Waiting is hard . . .

November 7, 2022

          I spoke to the Bay Area Coalition on Saturday as they began a day of phone banking in the final stretch to the election. I signed on to the Zoom early and listened in the background as the leaders of the Coalition confirmed their strategy, discussed technical issues regarding election resources and referrals, and prepared their plan of attack for the day. If the level of competence and dedication exhibited by the Coalition indicates the broader efforts by Democratic activists and volunteers, we are in good hands! The “can do” attitude of the Coalition leaders was impressive and inspiring. I felt better all day because of the insight I gained in five minutes of listening in the background.

          So, “Thank you” to the leaders of the Bay Area Coalition and (more importantly) to the volunteers who spent Saturday making calls to and answering questions from voters. You are true heroes of the resistance and faithful servants of democracy—as are all volunteers and activists who are helping Democrats to win in the midterms! Thanks to each of you on my behalf and on behalf of my daughters and granddaughters who will benefit from your hard work and selflessness. You should be rightly proud of your efforts, come what may.

          My inbox has been vibrating from the constant barrage of last-minute appeals for donations and “breaking news” alerts regarding the latest polls. My view hasn’t changed: We can maintain control of Congress and make important gains in the states. Whether we will do so will come down to turnout—something that we won’t be able to measure until Election Day (or later, due to continuing receipt of mail ballots). Dozens of key races are within the polling margin of error, which tells us that it is difficult to predict the outcomes.

          Although I have generally avoided linking to analyses that discuss polls and early voting turnout, an analysis by Substack author TCinLA provides a measured and high-level view of the state of the midterms that is informative and calming. See Last Elections Post Til Wednesday - by TCinLA (substack.com) (Parental Guidance Warning for Language.) As TCinLA advises,

Just hang on through the week, because it will likely take until Friday to get anything close to final tallies.

Pay no attention to “polls” that are released in the next 24 hours. These are most likely Republican scam polls.

Now’s the time to just stand firm.

Agreed! Stand firm, be patient, and stay strong!

If you think Democrats have problems, check out what is happening in the GOP.

          Over the weekend, Donald Trump called the Republican Governor of Florida “Ron DeSanctimonious”. Having the party standard-bearer bashing one of the party’s “rising stars” is never a good sign of a party’s health. In the GOP, that state of affairs is called “Saturday” by the media. If Joe Biden had taken a similar swipe at Beto O’Rourke, the media would be falling over themselves to predict doom for the Democratic Party. The reaction of the media to Trump’s attack on DeSantis was, “Meh.” Just another sign of the media’s double standard in political reporting on the two leading parties in America.

          But the trouble is serious for the GOP—because Trump will never back out of the GOP race gracefully, and the movement to dump him is just starting. Indeed, his aides are hinting at a November announcement of Trump’s 2024 candidacy—a necessity compelled by his insatiable ego and his need for a self-pardon. But big GOP donors are beginning to break ranks, which will surely spell a political bloodbath for the Republican Party’s 2024 primary season. See Politico, GOP megadonor: I’m ready to back DeSantis for president in ’24.

          The fight for the presidency in 2024 will begin in earnest next week. Republicans are already off to a shaky start. While we can’t count on Republicans to beat themselves, we should do everything we can to capitalize on their divisions and disarray.

House Republicans drop “bombshell” report ahead of Election Day—proving that they “got nothing.”

          House Republicans are telling anyone who will listen that they are going to unleash “the mother of all investigations” if they retake the House in the midterms. Over the weekend, they dropped a “bombshell” report that consisted of stale conspiracy theories and demand letters from House Republicans to the DOJ and FBI. See Talking Points Memo, In Pre-Election Drop, House Republicans Release ‘Bombshell’ Report Composed Mostly Of Old Letters.

          I know that many readers are worried about GOP investigations if they take control of the House. But let’s get real. What do Democrats have to fear from those investigations? Sure, the existence of the investigations will be “red meat” to the MAGA base, but at the end of the day, there will not be any “beef.” Remember the Benghazi investigation? After four years and ten (10!) investigations by congressional committees, Republicans found ZERO evidence to support wrongdoing by the Obama administration.

So, if Republicans really want to investigate the “security lapses” on January 6th, we should welcome that investigation—because the inaction by the Department of Defense, DOJ, FBI, National Guard, Secret Service, and Capitol Police are all suspicious—and all occurred under the control of Donald Trump.

          The “bombshell” report over the weekend proves that the House Republicans currently “got nothing.” If they had evidence of wrongdoing, they would have released it. They didn’t because they don’t.

Garland should not appoint a Special Counsel.

          Trump’s impending announcement of a 2024 candidacy has reportedly caused the DOJ to consider appointing a special counsel. See NYTimes, Justice Dept. Weighs Special Counsel for Trump Inquiries if He Runs. Appointing a special counsel is a bad idea for many reasons, as discussed below.

          In broad terms, the appointment of a special counsel is reserved for situations in which the DOJ has a conflict of interest (or there are other “extraordinary circumstances.”) Here, the alleged conflict would arise from the fact that Biden appointed Merrick Garland. That is no conflict—or should not be from a policy standpoint. If declaring a candidacy against the president who appointed the Attorney General creates a conflict of interest, then everyone under investigation by the DOJ should always announce their intention to run against the president who appointed the sitting Attorney General. In other words, Trump should not be allowed to “create” a conflict of interest by exercising a decision that is within his exclusive control.

          Moreover, a special counsel would need to begin the process of hiring staff, acquiring evidence, convening a grand jury, and conducting an investigation. While it is possible that a special counsel could leverage existing work, there is an inherent and unavoidable delay in “getting up to speed” for a newly appointed special counsel. See Shan Wu in Daily Beast, Appointing a Special Counsel for Trump Would Be a Mistake Amid Midterms.

          And, as a practical matter, finding a special counsel who would be qualified to serve and free of perceived conflicts would be nearly impossible. See NYTimes, Trump May Pose a Test No Special Counsel Can Pass. See also Professor Laurence Tribe on Twitter, arguing that choosing a special counsel to investigate Trump “would make the appointment itself a political act.”

          In the end, Merrick Garland would need to make any final determination on an indictment. So, a special counsel would introduce delay, but not remove Garland from a decision that will be viewed as inherently political.

Concluding Thoughts.

          All of us have experienced moments like this in our lives—when we have completed the work, taken the test, made our closing argument—and all that remains is to await the result. Waiting is hard, but we can do so with the peace and resolve that comes from knowing we have given it our all. Were our efforts perfect? No. But if that were the test for anything in life, we would have given up long ago.

          If we maintain control of Congress and make significant advances in the states, our challenges will be no less daunting than if we lose control of Congress and suffer defeats in the states. We are engaged in a generational struggle, and the outcome of the 2022 midterms is an important but not dispositive battle. If we take just a few steps back, we can see the long arc of history bending toward justice, tolerance, liberty, and security. Don’t lose sight of that perspective this week as we await the results of our honorable work.

          Stand firm, be patient, and stay strong!

          Talk to you tomorrow!