VP Harris campaigns from a position of strength, Trump campaigns from a position of desperation

September 23, 2024

Over the last few weeks, emails from readers have shifted in their description of reader activities. More readers are saying they are engaged in door-to-door canvassing on behalf of Kamala Harris and Democratic candidates down-ballot. The most recent communication was a note I received Sunday afternoon, which included, “I will be knocking on doors in Pennsylvania the next six weeks.” Talk about dedication!

I considered noting the trend toward on-the-ground canvassing as the lead for this newsletter but reconsidered, wondering if it was worth highlighting. As I was about to move on to a different subject to open this newsletter, I saw the following article: HuffPo, Republicans In Swing States Say They See Scant Signs Of Groups Door-Knocking For Trump.

According to the HuffPo article, Trump has outsourced his “on the ground organizing” by hiring political action committees to perform work traditionally conducted by volunteers. Among the PACs Trump has hired to perform volunteer work is America PAC, whose major investor is Elon Musk. But in key swing states, political observers are saying that Trump paid canvassers are “missing in action.”

The PACs hired by Trump are running into difficulties. Musk’s America PAC hired subcontractors to perform door-to-door work in Arizona and Nevada. But with seven weeks to go, Musk’s PAC fired the sub-contractor and is now scrambling to build a canvassing organization from scratch. See The Guardian, Trump-allied Pac fires canvassing vendor in crucial states weeks before election.

All campaigns face organizing difficulties. But Trump compounded those difficulties by outsourcing volunteer activities at a time when it has also closed field offices. The point of Trump's abandonment of the ground game is to allow him to focus on advertising. But there, too, he is being outspent by the Harris-Walz campaign. See NYTimes (9/20/2024), Kamala Harris Outspends Donald Trump by Tens of Millions Online. (Behind a paywall.)

Per the NYT,

Ever since Ms. Harris entered the race, her campaign has overwhelmed the Trump operation with an avalanche of digital advertising, outspending his by tens of millions of dollars and setting off alarm among some Republicans.

None of the above is meant to suggest that it will be easy to defeat Trump. But the Harris-Walz campaign has two resources in abundance: volunteers and enthusiasm. Trump’s newly hired paid contractors will be no match for motivated true believers urging neighbors and community members to show up to vote.

Enthusiasm and genuine dedication are not being measured by horse-race polls—which explains why it feels like there is a disconnect between the reported closeness of the race and what we are seeing and experiencing.

We should not delude ourselves or fabricate “just so” stories to deny reality. But here, the reality is that we have a comparative advantage and a strategic opening. Trump has offloaded the most important part of the “get out the vote” effort and is being out-raised by the Harris-Walz campaign.

The lesson to be taken from Trump's error is not that we can ease up but that we should double-down on volunteering on the hard work of getting out the vote—in every way possible. During the next seven weeks, there is no substitute for personal involvement in getting out the vote—in whatever form that takes!

Given Trump's dual disadvantages in ground game and cash, he has pivoted to the real currency of the MAGA movement: outrage and grievance. Read on!

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Trump stokes racial tensions and anti-immigrant animus to motivate his base

Faced with a fundraising deficit and an anemic ground organization, Trump has turned to outrage to motivate his followers. Even the Trump apologists at the New York Times recognize that the last two weeks have been exceptional—even by the outrage-driven heights of Trump's past campaigns. See NYTimes, Controversies Erupt as Trump and G.O.P. Make Critical Push to Voters.

Per the NYTimes,

Even by the standards of a head-spinning presidential campaign, Donald J. Trump’s campaign over the past two weeks has been tumultuous.

A period that began when Mr. Trump pushed baseless claims from the debate stage that immigrants in Ohio were stealing and eating household pets ended with him facing attacks over his support of the Republican candidate for governor in North Carolina, who referred to himself as a “black Nazi” on the message board of a pornographic website.

Mr. Trump has returned to the kind of attention-seeking habits honed by a career spent shaping his image in New York tabloids.

He pledged to visit Springfield, Ohio, even as local Republican officials pleaded with him to stay away, as the town continues to reel from a political firestorm ignited by his false claims. [¶¶]

The pledge to visit Springfield can only be viewed as an effort to increase racial tension and provoke anti-immigrant animus across America—with an attendant increase in the potential for violence.

In short, Trump is hoping to erase Kamala Harris’s advantages by appealing to hate and division. As the media continue to report the gaining strength of the Harris-Walz campaign, we should expect that Trump will ratchet up his incitement. While that will be hard to watch and dangerous for America, we should recognize it as a sign of increasing desperation by Trump. Do not let it deter or distract us! Instead, concentrate on getting out the vote in every way possible!!

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Staff members of the Mark Robinson NC campaign for governor resign

Despite overwhelming evidence that the North Carolina GOP candidate for governor, Mark Robinson, had an active presence on porn sites where he posted pro-Nazi, racist comments, the response of the NC Republican establishment has been to deny the allegations. That tactic is designed to undermine the confidence of voters in the truth. In the GOP playbook, if nothing is true, then the truth about Trump's criminality, corruption, and anti-democratic plans is easier to deny.

But at some point, it is impossible to deny the truth. On Sunday, reports emerged that key staff members of Mark Robinson’s gubernatorial campaign have resigned. See Axios, Top Mark Robinson aides resign from North Carolina governor's campaign.

Per Axios, the top six aides in Robinson’s campaign have resigned, including the campaign manager, finance director, political director, and director of operations—all of the senior staff on the campaign.

It is difficult to imagine how the campaign can continue. Indeed, per Axios, one Republican adviser said, “the staffing overhaul "doesn't matter because the campaign was already over."

As above, the challenges faced by Republicans in North Carolina are not an excuse to relent but a strategic opening for Democrats to win up and the down the ballot—including by defeating Trump. If Republicans are going to nominate the worst of the worst MAGA extremist candidates in their effort to please the Trump base, then we should convert that tendency into our strategic advantage.

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Speaker Mike Johnson proposes “clean” spending bill despite Trump's objection

Donald Trump has been pressuring Speaker Mike Johnson to force a government shutdown if Democrats did not agree to a the SAVE Act—which would impose unnecessary proof of citizenship documentation requirements on new voters. (The US has managed to hold federal elections for 235 years without requiring the onerous documentary proof imposed by the SAVE Act.) See The Hill, Mike Johnson proposes three-month funding bill to avert government shutdown.

As with other continuing resolutions, Mike Johnson will need help from Democrats to pass the bill. Johnson sent a letter to House Republicans explaining why they needed to support the proposed continuing resolution:

While this is not the solution any of us prefer, it is the most prudent path forward under the present circumstances. As history has taught and current polling affirms, shutting the government down less than 40 days from a fateful election would be an act of political malpractice.

Trump was willing to commit “political malpractice” by shutting down the government—because he believed it would help him win, even though it would have hurt congressional Republicans. As always with Trump, it about Trump—and no one else.

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700+ national security leaders endorse Kamala Harris

A reader who is a member of a group of national security leaders who endorsed Kamala Harris sent me a note about the letter released by the group. See Endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris for President of the United States — National Security Leaders for America (nsl4a.org).

The list of signatories is truly impressive. Their letter reads, in part:

We are former public servants who swore an oath to the Constitution. Many of us risked our lives for it. We are retired generals, admirals, senior noncommissioned officers, ambassadors, and senior civilian national security leaders. We are Republicans, Democrats, and Independents. We are loyal to the ideals of our nation—like freedom, democracy, and the rule of law—not to any one individual or party.

We do not agree on everything, but we all adhere to two fundamental principles. First, we believe America’s national security requires a serious and capable Commander-in-Chief. Second, we believe American democracy is invaluable. Each generation has a responsibility to defend it. That is why we, the undersigned, proudly endorse Kamala Harris to be the next President of the United States.

This election is a choice between serious leadership and vengeful impulsiveness. It is a choice between democracy and authoritarianism. Vice President Harris defends America’s democratic ideals, while former President Donald Trump endangers them.

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The cast of Hamilton sings “The Election of 2024”

For fans of the musical Hamilton, you must watch the current cast sing The Election of 2024. It is creative, fun, and important. And it mentions one of my favorite organizations, VoteRiders!

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Opportunities for Reader engagement

Galvanize Action is a national organization developing messages proven to move moderate white women in swing states towards progress. Reaching these women is vital to our country’s progress. 

On Thursday, September 26 at 5 pm PDT/8 pm EDT there will be a webinar featuring Celinda Lake, one of the nation’s leading Democratic pollsters, and Jackie Payne, Founder and Executive Director of Galvanize Action and the One for All Committee (the Galvanize PAC) to share new insights about the election and how we can support their work.

Galvanize Action is a top recommendation of David Callahan's  Blue Tent.   Galvanize Action and the One for All Committee have also been selected by Focus for Democracy,  which rigorously evaluates and selects a few groups who they determine are the best investments to protect democratic values and fundamental rights.

Please register at the link below to secure your spot for this webinar!

Thursday, September 26, 2024 5:00 PM -  6:00 PM PT

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Concluding Thoughts

Trump has concluded that he has only one path to victory: Inciting anti-immigrant animus. While that is despicable and disappointing, the fact that Trump has retreated to such a narrow path illustrates his increasing desperation. Ohio Governor Mike DeWine penned an op-ed in the NYTimes condemning the “vitriol” of Trump and Vance about Springfield, Ohio. See The Guardian, Ohio’s Republican governor condemns Trump and Vance for Springfield claims. And yet, Trump will head to Springfield to fan the embers of hate he and Vance have spread through a peaceful but struggling community.

In short, Trump is betting on hate and fear, while Kamala Harris is betting on hope and opportunity. VP Harris has the winning side of the argument—as demonstrated by Trump's refusal to agree to a second debate with Harris. See The Seattle Times, Harris Agrees to a Second Debate, but Trump Declines.

Trump needs a second debate—to shore up his “tough guy” image and reverse his slide in the polls since late July. The fact that he will not agree to a debate despite those compelling reasons is an admission that he lost the first debate so badly that a second debate is the worst possible outcome for Trump.

It is remarkable that it has taken Kamala Harris only two months to put Trump on the defensive and deflate his tough guy image—something no other political leader has been able to do. Although Joe Biden beat Trump, the former president never exhibited the fear of Biden that Trump is now revealing by his refusal to debate Kamala Harris a second time.

Kamala Harris is campaigning from a position of strength and Trump is campaigning from a position of desperation. As Simon Rosenberg says, “We would much rather be us than them!” We have no guarantee of success, but it feels liberating and energizing to be fighting from a position of strength and momentum. As always, we have every reason to be hopeful but no reaon to be complacent.

Dose of Daily Perspective

Talk about perspective! Check out my wife's blog, Every Day with Jill, to see what 50 years has done to my hairline! Mr. Hubbell's 50th High School Reunion! Notre Dame Knights!

The nebula below is NGC 7822, which is 3,000 light-years from Earth.

The image shows the trails of two satellites zipping across my telescope's field of view. I believe the trails were caused by Starlink satellites. My camera’s software should have rejected the images containing the satellite trails, so I need to figure out what, if anything, I can do to prevent a repeat of this problem.