Trump’s new Iran war strategy: Pretend that it never happened.

August 10, 2026

Over the weekend, there was a major shift in Iran’s negotiating position for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Iran had previously issued a set of preconditions for a nuclear deal; over the weekend, Iran attached those preconditions to reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The demands were issued by the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and likely reflect the ascendance of a more reactionary faction within Iran as unconfirmed rumors of Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei’s impending death circulate. See Iran Wire, Exclusive: Iranian Leaders are Concerned About Mojtaba Khamenei’s Worsening Health

The demands include

• Payment of billions of dollars in reparations to Iran for damage caused by the US air war against Iran.

• The release of all Iranian assets frozen by the US and its allies.

• The cessation of insulting or threatening language from the US government toward Iran.

• The cessation of the US naval blockade of Iran.

• The withdrawal of US troops from the region.

• The cessation of US military operations directed against Iran’s allies in the region.

See WSJ, Trump Thought Opening the Strait of Hormuz Was Imminent. Iran Had Other Plans. (Gift link.)

After the demands were issued, Trump held a phone interview with his favorite reporter at Axios to discuss the change in Iran’s demands. Amazingly, Trump seemed detached and dismissive, saying the US would “low-key it” in response to the demands. See Axios, Trump to Axios: “We are low keying it” with Iran.

Trump told Axios that Iran’s economic situation was dire and that the US would effectively wait it out—a strategy that sounds a lot like surrender (by the US). Per Axios, Trump said,

We are low-keying it. We are only semi-negotiating with them. We are just watching Iran with its huge inflation and the fact they have no money.

But Trump’s “wait and see” strategy is likely the result of depleted US military missiles and anti-missile weapons. Trump had been hoping to destroy Iran’s civilian energy infrastructure with a massive missile strike two weeks ago, but called off the strike when General Caine warned that doing so would degrade US military readiness in other parts of the world. In short, Trump grievously miscalculated the difficulty of bombing Iran into submission. So, Trump now wants to pretend the whole thing never happened.

Indeed, as the WSJ news analysis (linked above) notes,

For weeks, President Trump had been laying the groundwork to declare victory in the Iran war should Tehran fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, even floating the idea privately to senior aides that he’s willing to walk away without a nuclear deal, U.S. officials said.

But that scaled-back objective became more difficult when Iran insisted Saturday on its highest price yet for permitting the free flow of traffic in the waterway, seeking billions of dollars in U.S. payments, the removal of American troops from the region and an end of the U.S. naval blockade, among other things.

Notably, per the WSJ, Trump is now willing to walk away without a nuclear deal while Iran walks away with joint control over the Strait of Hormuz (with Oman). In the Trumpian revisionist history of his war against Iran, securing a nuclear deal was the main objective of his costly, futile war. Walking away now without a nuclear deal would be a humiliating defeat for Trump and a blow to the perceived strength of the US military.

Per the WSJ, the new criterion for victory is the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, regardless of Iran’s control over the strait. To state the obvious, reopening the strait under Iran’s control is a materially worse scenario than existed before the war. As I say, Trump wants to find a pretext to walk away and pretend that the war never happened.

In his Axios interview, Trump touted the fact that oil prices were lower—an artifact of the administration’s misleading claims that a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz was imminent. The AAA gas price tracker explicitly notes that “[c]rude oil prices are down in the $70 per barrel range amid optimism that the Strait of Hormuz will resume normal operations.” Whatever hopes the markets entertained of a quick resolution were dashed over the weekend by Iran’s toughening stance.

Still, even with the slightly lower prices due to Trump’s manipulation of the oil market, gasoline prices in the US are still 35% to 39% higher today than when Trump started his war against Iran on February 28, 2026. See AAA Fuel Prices (August 06, 2026)

So, here’s the point: The war against Iran is going far worse than Trump or most of the press is willing to admit. But the American people are finely attuned to the economic effects of the war, so Trump’s strategy of “pretend that it never happened” is a losing one. The pain of high gas prices will linger long after they return to pre-war levels. Trump’s broken campaign promise of keeping the US out of foreign wars has shaken his base. And every price increase at the grocery store is blamed on Trump’s insane tariff wars against our major trading partners.

We cannot rely on Republicans to defeat themselves. But we should recognize that Trump has made multiple historic blunders in the six months leading to the midterms: the war, tariffs, Epstein files, self-dealing and corruption, cutting Medicare drug subsidies, and lavish but failed construction projects in D.C.—and many more.

Trump’s blunders should allow us to outperform expectations by pollsters who are modeling the future based on a past that did not include Trump’s historic blunders. I say that not to suggest that anyone can relent, but instead to make the point that we should not listen to pundits and pollsters who refuse to acknowledge that we live in an alternate reality that cannot be mapped onto the past.

If ever there was a time to step outside our comfort zone and swing for the fences, this is it. We can make history in 90 days so long as we do not surrender to the voices telling us what is not possible or too difficult. We cannot tarry in deciding whether the Democratic Party is in disarray and, if so, whose fault it is. Beat Republicans in November by capitalizing on Trump’s historic blunders. We can resolve intra-party disputes once we control Congress.

And, as an extra incentive, by increasing the margin of our victories in November, we minimize the risk that Trump or Republicans will resort to cheating, force, or the Supreme Court to overturn the will of the people. Close elections are vulnerable; blowouts are not. We learned that lesson in November 2025 when Trump stopped claiming the elections were rigged when he saw the margins of Democratic victories.

Our mission between now and November is to move forward—relentlessly, with urgency, determination, and purpose. Trump has given us a historic opportunity to jump-start the process of reclaiming our democracy. We cannot let it slip away because of doubt or half-measures. It’s up to us. It always is. But this year, the stakes are higher. Let’s make it happen!

Opportunity for Reader Engagement

Attend a screening of the Lightworkers documentary in Los Angeles on August 12.

If you live in the Los Angeles area, there will be a screening of the inspiring Lightworkers documentary on Wednesday, August 12 at 7 p.m.

Location: Westchester Municipal Community Room, D11 Office, 7166 West Manchester Avenue, Los Angeles, CA 90045

The documentary will be introduced by me and Bobby Roth (the producer, director, and editor).

Here is the link to RSVP.

The event is free. There will be an opportunity to donate to the States Project. Donations are NOT required. The States Project has a $750k match until August 31, which means every donation given between now and August 31 will be matched dollar-for-dollar or until the $750k is used up.

Join Blue CD2 New Mexico with Rep. Melanie Stansbury

Join Representative Melanie Stansbury on Zoom as she explores how blue states (in particular, New Mexico) work FOR the people they serve and what that means for the midterms. It's a fundraiser for Blue CD2 New Mexico, but it's free to attend. Friday, August 14 at 1 PM Eastern, 12 PM Central, 11 AM Mountain and 10 AM Pacific. Register here: New Mexico - Where Government Works for the People - with Melanie Stansbury

Concluding Thoughts

During my Saturday livestream, readers asked two questions that help frame our expectations for the pace of reclaiming our democracy. The answer to one question counsels patience, while the answer to the other suggests that we must act with urgency.

A reader asked, “If we regain control of Congress in November, won’t Trump simply veto any legislation we pass?” The answer is “Yes, he will.” Taking control of Congress is a necessary but not sufficient condition for gaining the ability to pass legislation to undo the damage inflicted by Trump and MAGA Republicans. We must also win the presidency in 2028 to begin reform through legislation, including passing the John Lewis Voting Rights Act and the Redistricting Reform Act.

But if we take control of Congress this November, we can (a) begin oversight investigations of the DOJ, Homeland Security, Health and Human Services, and other agencies that have been corrupted by Trump, and (b) deny confirmation of Trump’s nominees to the Supreme Court and to senior officer positions in the executive branch.

Second, a reader asked, “If we expand the Supreme Court, won’t Republicans do the same thing?” The answer is, “Probably, but they will need a trifecta in order to do so.” More importantly, we should not refrain from taking bold action because of what Republicans might do in response. If that becomes the test, we will never act.

Of course, the possibility that Republicans will expand the Supreme Court if they ever achieve a trifecta again is a good reason to expand the Court by a wide margin—not the 13-member Court that many are advocating. If the Court is expanded to 13 justices by Democrats, we will have a one-justice advantage—and will be subject to the vagaries of health, accidents, or a single justice's change of mind. We must build a formidable majority that can and will reverse Dobbs, Citizens United, Callais, Shelby County, Heller, Loper Bright, and Trump v US.

So, we must simultaneously recognize the need for patience in achieving a trifecta and the need for urgency once we achieve it. That will take discipline and determination, but it is the only way to effect change in our generation. We should not accept proposed reforms that will take generations to effect change. In January 2029, when we have a trifecta, we must act boldly and with urgency to restore full citizenship to women and Black Americans, and to eliminate the presidential immunity created from thin air by the Supreme Court—an immunity that has emboldened Trump to disregard the Constitution and the rule of law.

Talk to you tomorrow!

Daily Dose of Perspective

The above photo is miscaptioned because it is incomplete. NGC 1893 is an open star cluster sitting inside of IC 410, a reflection nebula. The interior star cluster consists of very hot, young stars that generate solar winds that illuminate and expand the surrounding gas. The two objects are about 12,500 light-years from Earth. The reflection nebula is about 100 light-years across.

Pro-democracy protest photos.

Please send photos to rbhubbell@gmail.com. Include a caption with the date, location, and organization name, along with a short message (if any).

Many readers share links to photos stored on a third-party service. For understandable reasons, I am hesitant to click on links to external sites. So please embed or attach photos in JPEG or TIFF format in the email that you send to me. Thanks!

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San Jose, CA.  Indivisible San Jose’s bannering crew was met with a brisk wind to offset the 89 degree temperature today.  The enthusiasm for our Dr. Fauci Is A Hero message was energizing - we only wish he knew how much support he has across the country.  One of our protesters treated us to cookies and watermelon making the day even more enjoyable for all. 

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Memorial roadside demonstration honoring all those killed by ICE directly or while in their custody. Originally planned shortly after the killings of Lorenzo Salgado Araujo and Joan Sebastian Duran Guerrero but cancelled due to unhealthy air from the Canadian forest fires.  About 65 came out to a very busy street in Skokie, IL including the Mayor of Evanston. 

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Rise and Resist New York, NY anti-war action in Times Square

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Saturday’s heat didn’t stop the Overpass Standout by Members of the Randolph (MA) Resistance Indivisible Group. Our message was “America Runs on Immigrants”. Lots of support and honks!

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It was a little windy, but another good day to be on the I-93 overpass in Franconia Notch, Franconia, NH.  Once again the North Country Resilience volunteers came to display messages:  BLANCHE = EPSTEIN COVER-UP and RESTORE JUSTICE: VOTE.  We believe that our messages make a difference, at least we hope they do.

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North Country Resilience volunteers were on the I-93 overpass in Bethlehem, NH today (8/9/26) to display messages: RESIST TYRANTS and CANADA BROS 0 FOES.  The response from passing cars was very positive in both directions.  We hope this will be a trend.

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Mill Valley, CA. I believe that the automobile traffic in our location is increasingly more responsive to our protest messages!!

Could it be that the immorality of this regime and our Congress and the destruction of our institutions and the rule of law is becoming more apparent to the public?!!

As I mentioned to you previously, I am happy to share with anyone who wants to use the designs of my signs and banners. Below is a link to my favorite signs and a link to the banners.

—to the protest signs https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1KFIAD2LMs4TnJuDw4XP_3UEKmadbNZfB

—to the banners https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1JPwtIT2ZxQ26KsXr439rRALuXhduScZE

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8-9-2026:  These are pics from a gathering today in Blue Ash, Ohio (Cincinnati) sponsored by Ignite Peace.  Participants gathered in front of the ice office where Haitians were being asked to  show up for appointments.  This group provided support to people as they arrived for their appointments with ICE.   There was singing, chanting, and cheering for the people who arrived for appointments.  

Rachel Maddow featured this group last Monday on her show.   I believed this group exceeded last weeks number of people gather which was about 500 people.   

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Tesla Takedown Centinela Los Angeles 8/9/26. It was so hot today but the three of us showed up for another week of Tesla Takedown Centinela in  Los Angeles 8/9/26

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Billerica MA Super Resisters know that Voting is our Superpower! 8/8/26

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17 Attended,  93F & Smoky - Canada Fires. Gage County Courthouse, Beatrice,  NE. Every Sunday since April 6th, 2025.

The most Support we have seen since starting

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The We Believe Brigade. Democracy is not a spectator sport.

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Oscoda, Michigan, August 8, 2026. Our persistent group in a small, rural, red area varies from 12-20 on any given Saturday over 73 consecutive weeks, and swells to hundreds during No Klieg protests.  We count total cars and total positive responses versus total negative responses. This week for the first time ever, we surpassed 32% positives against 2% negatives! Hoping its a sign that the tide is indeed turning!

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Rise and Resist at the Times Square recruiting center on a blistering hot day. Stop The War!

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We have our PPPs (Political Postcard Parties every month here in our loft in North Adams MA. We are with Greylock Together, an Indivisible group. To date this year, we have done over 12,000 postcards! 

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On Sunday, August 9, about 30 members of the SCI Visibility Brigade in Bridgewater, NJ refused to let the heat and humidity stop them from supporting Dr. Anthony Fauci, former chief medical advisor to the President who tried desperately to mitigate the human toll of the COVID pandemic. The message DR. FAUCI IS A HERO was boldly displayed on an I287 overpass. Honks from motorists passing beneath let us know that they, too, recognize the truth about the good doctor!

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Hot and happy with the Raleigh Bridge Brigade in Raleigh, NC

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The weekly protest in Middleton, WI.  30-50 of us populate the four corners of a busy intersection every Saturday at noon for an hour.  The waves and honks give us hope!

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These many signs reflect all the reasons we show up each week to fight against this destructive regime.  Lake Oswego, OR

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Montgomery Alabama-every Wednesday morning for over a year!

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Every Saturday 9-10 in front of Town Main St.

This week, Speakers spoke about the successful rally by Maine Health Nurses that resulted in the release from ICE of registered nurse Deborah Kapisha legally granted work authorization pending her asylum application.

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At our 76th BRIDGE BRIGADE protest in Kent County, MI. So much driver support!! 

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Visibility Brigade of Paramus 

August 6th 2026

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