Trump's NATO comments reverberate across Europe.

February 13, 2024

Trump's anti-NATO comments over the weekend have focused attention on US foreign policy commitments. At a meeting of the EU on Monday, Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski reminded a reporter that the NATO treaty’s “mutual defense” provision has been invoked only once—to assist the United States after the 9/11 terrorist attacks. As reported in Politico,

Referring directly to Trump's comments, Sikorski underlined that “the [NATO] alliance is not a security agency,” stressing that NATO allies came to America's aid after the September 11 attacks and that Poland fought alongside U.S. troops in Afghanistan.

“We didn't send the bill to Washington,” he said.

Dozens of readers posted Comments and sent emails noting that it is beyond hypocritical for Trump to pretend that timely payment of bills is grounds for abandoning an ally. Trump famously stiffs every lawyer, contractor, service provider, and vendor possible, leaving a string of unpaid debts and collection lawsuits in his wake.

Many major media outlets continued coverage of Trump's statement, notably the NYTimes, which ran a front-page “news analysis” titled, “Trump Steps Up, Helping Biden Just When the President Needs Him,” and a second story highlighting Trump's attack on Nikki Haley’s husband, Major Mike Haley, “Defending Troops, Haley Says Golf Course Is Closest Trump Has Come to Combat.”

The thesis of the Times coverage is that Trump consistently draws attention away from Biden’s age by injecting Trump's recklessness into the political equation. Per the Times news analysis,

The stunner from Mr. Trump over the weekend not only drew attention away from the president’s memory problems, as detailed in a special counsel report, but also provided a convenient way for Mr. Biden’s defenders to reframe the issue: Yes, they could now say, the incumbent may be an old man who sometimes forgets things, but his challenger is both aging and dangerously reckless.

It was not the first time, nor likely will it be the last, that Mr. Trump has stepped up when an adversary was in trouble to provide an escape route with an ill-considered howler of his own. Mr. Trump’s lifelong appetite for attention has often collided with his evident best interest.

For Mr. Biden, that may be the key to this year’s campaign, banking on his opponent’s inability to stay silent at critical moments and hoping that he keeps reminding voters why they rejected him in 2020.

But Trump's dangerous views on foreign policy are not mere campaign fodder. They have infected his party, which is looking for a way to kill aid for Ukraine.

As the Senate moves closer to a final vote on supplemental funding for Ukraine and Israel, Speaker Mike Johnson preemptively rejected the bill because—wait for it—the foreign aid bill does not include US immigration reform and border security provisions!! See The Hill, Speaker Johnson fires warning shot as Senate prepares to vote on Ukraine aid

In case you have forgotten, Trump ordered congressional Republicans to kill a prior version of the aid bill that included immigration reform and border security provisions. Because of Trump's opposition to immigration reform and enhanced border security, GOP Senators voted down the combined bill.

Now that the Senate is sending a bill with foreign aid only, Speaker Mike Johnson is playing the legislative version of the “rope-a-dope” gambit where the American people and Ukraine are the victims of a bad-faith delaying strategy. 

While foreign policy rarely plays a decisive role in US presidential campaigns, Trump's threat to abandon NATO and encourage Russian aggression deserves the attention of every American who values global stability. If Ukrainian soldiers cannot contain Russia’s expansionism, the next country in Putin’s sights will be Poland—a NATO member.

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Trump asks Supreme Court to issue stay of DC Circuit ruling on presidential immunity.

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What happened.

Recall that last week, a three-judge panel of the DC Circuit Court of Appeals resoundingly rejected Trump's claim of presidential immunity. The DC Circuit gave Trump six days to request a stay from the Supreme Court. On Monday, Trump filed an Application for Stay that effectively argues the merits of his case.

Trump's argument makes three points:

• The Supreme Court is likely to grant review of the DC Circuit Court’s decision;

• Trump is likely to win; and

• Trump will be irreparably harmed if the Supreme Court does not grant a stay.

Although the structure of Trump's application conforms to legal norms, his arguments are the same extreme claims rejected by the DC Circuit. For example, Trump asserts the following:

Chief Justice Marshall thought it self-evident that Article III courts cannot sit in judgment directly over the President’s official acts, which “can never be examinable by the courts.” Because “the courts” cannot “examin[e]” the President’s official acts, they cannot enter a criminal judgment against him and imprison him on the basis of those official acts.

In other words, Trump continues to assert that the president is above the law.

As the DC Circuit noted, that proposition is nonsensical given that the president’s highest duty is to “take Care that the Laws be faithfully executed.” U.S. Constitution, Article II, § 3. The DC Circuit wrote,

There is also a profound Article II interest in the enforcement of federal criminal laws. As part of this duty, the President is responsible for investigating and prosecuting criminal violations. . . .

It would be a striking paradox if the President, who alone is vested with the constitutional duty to “take Care that the Laws be faithfully executed,” were the sole officer capable of defying those laws with impunity.

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What will the Supreme Court do?

After the surprising and disappointing oral arguments on Trump's disqualification from the Colorado ballot, I am abandoning (mostly) the business of predicting the actions of the Supreme Court. Instead, I refer you to Professor Steve Vladek of the University of Texas.

In a lengthy analysis on his Substack blog titled One First, Vladek considers the most likely outcomes in his post entitled, United States v. Trump. Vladek settles on the following two options as the most likely outcomes:

1.    The Court denies the request for the stay and the case is returned to Judge Chutkan for trial; or

2.    The Court treats the application for stay as a petition for certiorari, grants review, and sets the matter for expedited briefing and hearing.

I would add to Vladek’s predictions the gloss that “The Court will most likely take whichever action maximizes the harm to the Constitution, our democracy, and the rule of law” (hereinafter Hubbell’s First Law of Supreme Court Prognostication).

Hubbell’s Second Law of Supreme Court Prognostication is “Follow the money.” I am working on additional laws to aid in predicting the Court’s actions but feel free to add your own laws in the Comment section.

All humor aside, we must again remind ourselves that we cannot anxiously await legal developments in Trump's criminal prosecutions to change the outcome of the election. The courts aren’t coming to save us—and a conviction of Trump will not likely change the outcome in any event.

I understand that polls suggest that some Americans would change their support of Trump if he were convicted. Don’t rely on that polling, and don’t believe it. Any voter who is unpersuaded by 91 felony counts, an attempted coup, an insurrection, attempted bribery (of Ukraine), and a finding that Trump committed sexual assault tantamount to rape cannot be counted on to change their mind merely because Trump is convicted.

Trump can still be elected and serve as president from a jail cell. The only way to hold Trump to account is to beat him at the ballot box and then convict him.

So, while Trump's appeal is important and historic, it will not change the course of the election. Only we can do that. We have work to do and should not let Trump's appeal distract us.

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RFK Jr. ad during Super Bowl paid for by Trump donors

During the Super Bowl on Sunday, a thirty-second $7 million ad for RFK Jr. aired to 123 million Americans. The ad mimicked ads used by John F. Kennedy during his 1960 presidential bid and included images of Eunice Shriver, President Kennedy’s sister and a strong advocate for “science, vaccines, & health care equity,” (per her son, Bobby Shriver).

The ad was paid for by SuperPAC called American Values 2024—which received $15 million from a major Trump donor. According to the NYTimes,

The super PAC also received $15 million last year from Timothy Mellon, a banking heir and businessman who also gave $10 million in 2023 to a super PAC supporting former President Donald J. Trump. Mr. Mellon’s role has raised eyebrows among some Democrats, with fears widespread in the party that Mr. Kennedy could siphon votes away from Mr. Biden.

So, for anyone unclear on the concept that RFK Jr.’s candidacy is a poison pill designed to undermine Joe Biden’s candidacy, there can no longer be any doubt. A major Trump donor gave $15 million to the super PAC that paid for RFK Jr.'s Super Bowl ad. Tell a friend.

If you know anyone who is thinking about supporting RFK Jr., please tell them that Trump donors are bankrolling RFK’s campaign and ask them to think long and hard about why Trump's supporters are promoting RFK Jr.

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Trump suggests daughter-in-law Lara Trump as co-chair of Republican National Committee.

Trump has forced the resignation of Ronna McDaniel as the Chair of the Republican National Committee by merely suggesting that “changes should be made” at the RNC. On Monday, Trump suggested that his daughter-in-law, Lara Trump, serve as the co-chair of the RNC. See Politico, Trump endorses new RNC chair and Lara Trump as co-chair.

Trump's nomination of Lara Trump as the co-chair of the major fundraising organization for the Republican Party is significant for two reasons. First, it will eliminate any distinction between Trump and the RNC. He will tell Lara Trump what to do and she will do it, no questions asked. That was the problem with Ronna McDaniel. She believed she served the Republican Party, not Trump.

Second, Lara Trump would come to the position with suspect credentials. As noted in an article in The Guardian (3/13/2021), Lara Trump-linked dog rescue charity spent $2m on Trump properties. As explained in the Guardian story, a dog rescue charity hosted lavish fundraisers at Mar-a-Lago, which generated millions in revenue for Mar-a-Lago. Lara Trump served as the chairwoman of fundraising for the charity and just coincidentally thought her father-in-law’s private club was the perfect place to spend millions to help rescue dogs.

Trump turned the presidency into a money-making venture. He is now engaged in a hostile takeover of the finances of the Republican Party. He will leave it a bankrupt husk of its former self.

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Tell Jon Stewart what you think of his return to comedy.

After a long hiatus, Jon Stewart has returned to Comedy Central. He used his return to mock Joe Biden for his age, essentially regurgitating the media malpractice of the last seventy-two hours by focusing on Robert Hur’s slander. Of course, like all cool commentators, Stewart wrapped his commentary in “both-siderism.” His thesis was, “They are both old, ha ha!” See Hollywood Reporter, Jon Stewart Daily Show Return: Host Rips Trump and Biden.

At the end of a 20-minute monologue, Stewart conceded that Biden and Trump were not exactly the same, but immediately mocked Biden for not being Conan the Barbarian. Stewart also joked about the cause of dementia (saying of Biden, “It turns out that the leading cause of early onset dementia is being deposed.”). Note to Jon Stewart’s twenty-something writers: Dementia is no laughing matter.

Jon Stewart’s Daily Show twitter handle is @TheDailyShow. If you are on Twitter, it might be helpful to let Jon Stewart know what you think of his comedic choices for his return to Comedy Central. I told him that he had lost his moral compass and had sunk to Trump's level by mocking someone’s disability.

But, hey, watch his monologue for yourself and decide. One reader sent a positive review, saying the last two minutes were worth watching—if you can get through 18 minutes of garbage.

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Opportunities for reader engagement.

There are two opportunities for reader engagement, both from friends of the newsletter:

Want expert advice on how your contributions can win the MOST votes? Join Focus For Democracy’s next Zoom briefing. F4D’s expert evaluators rigorously examine the evidence behind the tactics used by scores of organizations. In this briefing, they’ll tell you about organizations that enable your contributions to produce many times more votes in 2024 than you could with typical donations.

Focus for Democracy Network Zoom: Tuesday, February 13th at 5PM Pacific/8PM Eastern. You can click here to register or at this link: http://tinyurl.com/F4D13Feb

Also, I will be hosting an event for Airlift as it showcases an on-the-ground grassroots organization that is working to increase registration among Asian Americans, Native Hawaiians, and Pacific Islanders in Nevada:

Airlift is proud to announce that Robert Hubbell himself! will headline Live From the Frontlines:  Winning the Ground Game, Thursday, February 15, 5:00 PM PT / 8:00 PM ET. In addition to an overview of the 2024 landscape, our focus will be on Nevada, a critical state in 2024 with six electoral college votes, a must-win Senate seat, and multiple down-ballot races and ballot measures. 

We will also hear from leaders of One APIA Nevada, which organizes one of the fastest-growing yet overlooked constituencies–Asian Americans, Native Hawaiians, and Pacific Islanders. With its innovative, multi-lingual, and multi-generational engagement, One APIA Nevada effectively mobilizes this powerful emerging voting bloc to help us win the ground game in Nevada. Register here for what promises to be a great evening. 

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Concluding Thoughts.

It has been a tough news cycle, but the Biden campaign is doing the right thing—pushing back forcefully, calling out errors by Trump, reminding voters of the Trump agenda if he is re-elected. The Biden campaign released a TikTok video ahead of the Super Bowl. Anyone who wants to make fun of Biden for opening a TikTok account (looking at you Jon Stewart) must first open a TikTok account and subject themselves to the trolls and cynics that abound on that platform. Good for Joe Biden—he is a better (and braver) man than me!

We are likely to know the results of the NY 3rd congressional district race on Tuesday, where Democrat Tom Suozzi will try to retake the seat vacated by the expulsion of George Santos. The race will be close, so now is the time to say this: The organization and effort that has gone into recapturing the seat has been phenomenal! Everyone who has donated, written, texted, phone banked, and canvassed should take a bow! The measure of success of the campaign is the passion and dedication of the volunteers. Whatever happens, that passion and dedication aren’t going away. And we will need all of it, and more, in November—come what may!

Talk to you tomorrow!