Today’s Edition: The moment of truth.

July 12, 2021

          The reactionary wing of the Republican Party kicked off its 2024 presidential contest over the weekend with the Conservative Political Action Conference in Texas. See Fox News, “Trump speech, CPAC straw poll, put 2024 GOP presidential race in Sunday spotlight.” The annual CPAC meeting is a high-profile affair that rallies party extremists by railing against imaginary grievances in a bid to stop the inevitable march of history towards liberalism and tolerance. As the participants watch the tide of history erode their grip on the past, their rhetoric becomes increasingly vitriolic. This weekend’s event was even more disturbing than usual. CPAC gave a warm welcome to the founder of the Oath Keepers, whose members have been charged with engaging in an organized assault on Congress on January 6th. See Talking Points Memo, Another Piece of the 2022 Puzzle, (“Oath Keepers founder and leader Stewart Rhodes was at CPAC in Dallas last night as an officially credentialed guest hobnobbing with the elite of the Republican party and conservative movement.”). Although the Oath Keepers’ founder did not personally participate in the assault on January 6th, his presence at the conference is akin to the GOP welcoming a leader of Al Qaeda to the annual Republican retreat six months after the terrorist attacks of 9/11. See CNN, “US Capitol attack: 9 alleged Oath Keepers charged in conspiracy.” See also, Business Insider, “Oath Keeper charged over Capitol riot planned extensively online and stormed the building in military formation, prosecutors say.”

          The CPAC event occurs during the summer doldrums as Democrats are mired in the hard work of fashioning major legislation. As such, CPAC is filling the news vacuum, creating the false impression that Republicans are on the move while Democrats dither. Not true! As a public relations event, the CPAC conference is an ugly display of everything that is detestable about the empty shell formerly known as the Republican Party. And the veneer of unity is a nanometer deep. As CPAC rallies extremists in the party, the GOP is at war with itself. Reputable Republican groups are withholding support from the most visible representatives of the reactionaries—Marjorie Taylor Greene and Lauren Boebert. See HuffPo, “Greene, Boebert Slammed As ‘Carnival Barkers’ By PAC That Seeks To Elect GOP Women.” Meanwhile, for the second time in six years, the Alaska Republican Party will oppose its incumbent Republican Senator, Lisa Murkowski. See The Hill, “Alaska GOP endorses Murkowski primary challenger.” Likewise, the Oklahoma Republican Party will oppose GOP Senator James Lankford. See NBC News, “In fight over Trump loyalty, Okla. GOP chairman endorses Sen. Lankford's primary opponent.” And at the CPAC conference itself, Republican governors are attacking one another. See CNN, “Kristi Noem criticizes GOP governors who enacted Covid-19 mandates while accusing some of rewriting their history.”

          Trump spoke on Sunday afternoon. As reported by Fox News, Trump “revisited grievances ranging from his impeachment to the Russia investigation while attacking Democrats over topics including immigration and critical race theory.” In other words, he’s got nothing. Nonetheless, Trump came in first place in the straw poll for the 2024 nomination with 70% support from the attendees. See Fox News, Fox News, “Trump easily wins CPAC 2024 GOP presidential nomination straw poll.”  So, like it or not, we cannot ignore Trump. Neither should we fear him. He is damaged goods, may soon be indicted, and is incapable of articulating a message that doesn’t involve an attempt to explain his 2020 loss. That is not a winning message—at least not among Independents and suburban voters.

          But Democrats cannot count on Republican woes to carry Democrats to victory. During a moment of triumph that should have inspired unity, Democrats have found creative ways to squander some of their advantage. A poorly articulated call to “defund the police” in the face of rising crime will be used to pummel Democrats in 2022. The failure to act boldly on voting rights and environmental protection may frustrate important constituencies in the Democratic. But the overriding question for 2022 will be whether Democrats can maintain their advantage in the suburbs, among women, and among Independents. See The NYTimes, “The Big Question of the 2022 Midterms: How Will the Suburbs Swing?” (“Democrats and Republicans are already jockeying for a crucial voting bloc that soured on Donald Trump, tilted to Joe Biden and now holds the key to the second half of the president’s term.”)

          While it is true that Democrats have made their lot in life more difficult by poor messaging, at least they are not inviting the leader of an insurrectionist paramilitary group to their signature event. Nor will their standard bearer be someone who has been impeached twice, indicted for tax fraud (if we are lucky), and incapable of staying on message. It is also easy to forget that most Americans align with Democrats on important issues like healthcare, the environment, infrastructure, gun safety, and voting rights. True, Democrats have an uphill battle in negating GOP disinformation that Democrats are “soft on crime” and favor “open borders.” But, overall, Republicans are looking at a more challenging hand than Democrats in 2022 and 2024. Whether that will translate into victory is a more complicated question and will depend on the ability of Democrats to motivate turnout.

          If Trump remains the frontrunner for Republicans in 2024, then Trump and Joe Biden will be on the ballot in every race in 2022 as surrogates for every candidate. Democrats should feel hopeful about that fact.  Adam Gopnik has written a thoughtful essay in the New Yorker in which he examines Joe Biden’s low-key approach in the face of Trump’s game of breaking all the rules. See The New Yorker, “Biden’s Invisible Ideology.” Gopnik’s thesis is that Biden adopted the best strategy by insisting that the way to defeat Trump was to not play at Trump’s game:

In the face of the new politics of spectacle, he kept true to old-school coalition politics. . . It looked at the time dangerously passive; it turned out to be patiently wise. . . But this was surely due to [Biden’s] conviction that an atmosphere of aggravation can only work to the advantage of the permanently aggrieved.

          So, as news of the CPAC meeting dominates the Monday news cycle, do not fret over the fact that Democrats are still debating among themselves over passing voter protection legislation and eliminating the filibuster. Engaging in the hard work of legislating is preferable to hobnobbing with the founder of the organization accused of planning a violent assault on the Capitol. While the former is messy and frustrating, the latter is antithetical to American democracy. Trump loyalists running for election in 2022 will refuse to distance themselves from the Oath Keepers—a position that will not win the day with persuadable Independents and suburbanites.  As always, we have every reason to be hopeful, but no reason to be complacent.

You can help pass the For the People Act.

          The moment of truth is approaching for the For the People Act. On Saturday, Representative Jim Clyburn called on Biden to support modification of the filibuster to allow passage of the For the People Act. See Talking Points Memo, “Clyburn Calls On Biden To Endorse A Filibuster Carveout For Voting Legislation.” Clyburn’s dramatic endorsement of Biden before the South Carolina primary saved Biden’s sinking fortunes in the 2020 Democratic nominating process, so Clyburn’s statement carries extra heft. Combined with Schumer’s statement that he will call for a vote on S.1 in August, something’s got to give—and that must be Biden’s position on the filibuster.

          Over the weekend, I received many emails from readers involved in organizations lobbying for passage of the For the People Act. For example, Joe Biden is speaking in Philadelphia on Tuesday, July 13th.  The Philadelphia chapter of Indivisible is organizing a rally to “pressure Biden to make passage of S.1 a priority” (read: modify the filibuster). Details are still developing, but the rally will likely be held on Independence Mall at 3:30 PM on Tuesday, July 13th. Check for details here: President Biden in Philly! The rally will be in a location where the media will have access, so a large turnout could help send a powerful message to the President.

          Another reader sent the following note:

          I am a frequent volunteer with many grassroots organizations including Fair Fight Action. Today I participated in an informational webinar for past volunteers of Fair Fight. Fair Fight’s immediate call to action to volunteers is to call your Senators every day this month at 888-453-3211 to ask them to do everything they can to get the For the People Act to the Senate floor for a vote! Calls are counted by each Senator’s office, so a deluge of calls supporting allowing a debate on the For the People Act is important!

          Fair Fight is also looking for people to volunteer to join text banking.  Sign up for training on Fair Fight’s new texting platform (Impactive) here: Fair Fight Text Training. After the training sessions, you can join Fair Fight’s texting campaigns. If you have experience with texting campaigns, you already know that it is an easy, convenient way to reach younger voters who rely on their cell phones as their primary source of political information.  Help out if you can!

Concluding Thoughts.

The 2022 midterms have begun. We need to act accordingly. If you were active in 2018 or 2020, reprise those actions! If you are new to political activism or sat on the sidelines in prior elections, there is no time like the present to become involved. The events of January 6th demonstrate that none of us can afford to be a bystander any longer. Do your part, in whatever way you can.

          Talk to you tomorrow!