Today's Edition (May 24, 2021)

"Fool me twice . . . "

          The major political development over the weekend was Joe Biden’s counteroffer to Republicans on his infrastructure bill—a counteroffer that was rejected within an hour. See NYTimes, “As Talks Bog Down, Hopes for Bipartisan Deals on Biden’s Priorities Dim.” Biden trimmed nearly $600 billion from his initial proposal (down to $1.7 trillion from $2.3 trillion). Though Biden’s counteroffer identified specific reductions, Republicans simply said, “Nope. We need to redefine “infrastructure” so that the bill is pared down to $600 billion total.” Per the Times, Senator Roy Blunt said on Sunday that “the plan is insufficiently targeted on what [Republicans] consider traditional infrastructure, such as roads and bridges.” As I noted previously, if you limit the term “infrastructure” to “roads and bridges,” we would be using the same definition as King Hammurabi of Babylon in 1795 BCE. If America hopes to compete with China and other rapidly growing economies, we must expand our view of infrastructure to include broadband, semiconductor chip manufacturing, renewable energy, and cybersecurity protection for the energy grid.

          Of course, Republican efforts to use a Bronze Age definition of infrastructure is merely a delaying tactic. No one can accuse Joe Biden of not giving bipartisanship a good faith effort, but the swiftness of the GOP rejection and the silliness of its infrastructure definition strongly suggest that they are having a laugh at Biden’s expense. It is time to move on—as many in the Democratic caucus have urged. See Vox, “Biden’s negotiations with Republicans on the American Jobs Plan are making some Democrats anxious.” In the absence of a counteroffer from Republicans, Biden is negotiating against himself—and against the interests of the American people. Democrats have a once-in-a-generation opportunity to address America’s deteriorating roads and bridges and to invest in the electronic infrastructure that will pave the way to the future. Given that Republicans promised every week for four years that “next week will be infrastructure week,” if we don’t act now—and boldly—it may be another generation before we have this opportunity again.

          The impasse over Biden’s infrastructure bill should not be confused with ongoing funding for roads and bridges that is a staple of the federal budget. Congress allowed a five-year package to lapse last year but granted a one-year extension that will expire in September 2021. It appears that there is bipartisan support to extend that that funding for another five years and increase the “baseline” spending by about 34%. See CNBC, “Senators reach bipartisan agreement on $300 billion for highways, roads and bridges.” Biden’s initial proposal would have added $159 billion in new spending to repair and upgrade our interstate highway system, including bridges.

          Democrats have a path forward that can circumvent the filibuster. As explained in the Vox article above, Biden can use the budget reconciliation process under a previous ruling by the Senate Parliamentarian. See also CBS News (4/6/2021), “Senate parliamentarian clears way for Democrats to use reconciliation for infrastructure bill.” An advantage to using reconciliation is that Biden could include $180 billion for clean-energy research and development that he cut from his pared-down counteroffer over the weekend. Progressives in the party are anxious for Biden to use budget reconciliation so he can invest in efforts to fight climate change.

          The Biden administration had always targeted Memorial Day as its goal for reaching an agreement with Republicans on the infrastructure bill. Or not. Unfortunately, “or not” has happened. It is time to go it alone and cut the best possible deal with moderate Democrats. Let’s hope that Senator Manchin and others see that that there is no negotiating with terrorists or political opponents whose only motivation is to obstruct progress at all costs.

Concluding Thoughts.

I am cutting the newsletter short this evening. My Managing Editor and I have spent the last two days packing boxes to help our daughter, son-in-law, and eight-month-old granddaughter move residences. We are beat. But before I close, let me explain to the many new readers who started reading the newsletter after my move to Substack that the reference to my Managing Editor is an affectionate reference to my wife, who is the only other person involved in the production of the newsletter. I write the newsletter, and she provides editorial guidance and proofreads the newsletter if I finish at a decent hour. Some readers are misled by the reference and assume that I have a large staff supporting my efforts. Not so. It’s just the two of us.

          I want to reflect on the 2022 midterms. Virtually all of the media coverage assumes that Democrats will lose ground in 2022. Most of that analysis is based on historical patterns of midterm losses by the party in power. There is also an assumption that Republicans will gerrymander their way to victory in 2022. I will comment on that assumption in a future edition. But, for now, I want to explain why I do not believe we should assume that we are prisoners of history in 2022.

          The Republican Party is devolving into a cult of personality in which “success” within the party is defined by the degree to which candidates emulate Donald Trump. For example, the leading candidates to replace GOP Senator Rob Portman from Ohio all marched to Mar-a-Lago to “audition” before Trump in a “survival of the un-fittest” competition. See op-ed by Brent Larkin in Cleveland.com, “A Trump-tinged GOP Senate primary in Ohio unlike any other - and not in a good way.” The candidate endorsed by Trump will be the person who imitates Trump in every way—including his affect, bombast, and lunacy.

          Here’s my point: 2022 will be unlike any preceding midterm because Trump will be on the ballot in every race. GOP candidates know that if they fail to defend Trump against attacks by their Democratic opponents, they will be attacked by Trump for disloyalty. (Just ask Mitch McConnell, Liz Cheney, and Mitt Romney.)  While imitating Trump is a good way for GOP candidates to maximize support among Republican voters, it will cost them support among Independent voters—who are the key voting block in a narrowly divided electorate. Independents have turned against Trump post-presidency. See Gallup, “Presidential Approval Ratings -- Donald Trump.”

          So, when pollsters confidently predict that 2022 will follow historical patterns, they should qualify their predictions with the caveat that “2022 will look like every other midterm in which Donald Trump was the GOP candidate in every race.” In other words, we are in uncharted waters.

          I am not trying to make anxious Democrats feel better. Rather, I am arguing that the way forward is to state the obvious at every opportunity: Every Republican candidate in 2022 is a Trump surrogate who reflects the ugliest parts of Trumpism. And it is ugly. Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene and Matt Gaetz are barnstorming the country, promoting “recounts” similar to the tin-foil hat recount in Maricopa County by the Arizona GOP. See Newsweek, “Matt Gaetz Calls Arizona Audit 'Launchpad' for Audits Across America, Says Georgia's Next.” As Greene and Gaetz agitate for more local Republican parties to embarrass themselves, Greene compared mask mandates to the Holocaust. See HuffPost, “Marjorie Taylor Greene Condemned For 'Grotesque' Face Mask-Holocaust Comparison.” And the reporting regarding Matt Gaetz gets worse by the day. See Business Insider, “Matt Gaetz's ex-girlfriend will reportedly cooperate with the Justice Department's federal sex-trafficking investigation.”

          Until Kevin McCarthy reins in Greene and Gaetz—and he won’t—they will be the most visible and repugnant representatives of Trump on the campaign trail. And QAnon is gaining strength in a traditional Republican stronghold—white evangelicals. See CNN, “QAnon is spreading amongst evangelicals. These pastors are trying to stop it.” That fact will complicate the already difficult task for GOP candidates trying to appeal to Independent voters.  

          None of the above is an excuse for assuming that 2022 will be easy for Democrats. It will not. But it won’t be easy for Republicans, either. So, let’s set aside history and focus on the future. We have beat Trump twice in the past. And we will have the opportunity to beat him again and again and again in 2022. Let’s take that opportunity for all it is worth!

          Talk to you tomorrow!