Today’s Edition: “Keep our cool and just vote.”

September 28, 2021

          On Monday, Republicans voted in favor of the U.S. defaulting on its debts by refusing to raise the debt ceiling. If Democrats fail to remedy the situation, a default will inflict catastrophic injury on America, undermining global confidence in U.S. treasury bonds that finance our military, national infrastructure, and social programs. The situation remains immensely complicated, with the debt ceiling and authorization for government spending tied to Biden’s legislative agenda. Amid the seeming disarray, Biden projected confidence that Democrats would find a solution soon. On Monday evening, there were signs that Democratic impasses (and grudges) were softening, with a potential path forward on Biden’s legislative agenda. See The Hill, “Congress shows signs of movement on stalled Biden agenda.”

          The government’s ability to borrow money will exhaust itself in a matter of weeks and the government’s authority to spend money on non-essential functions will expire at midnight on Thursday of this week. If Democrats were ready to vote on their reconciliation package, they could simply include the debt ceiling and spending authorization in the reconciliation package. But because they are still negotiating that package, Democrats face two difficult choices. The options are:

• Use the filibuster-proof reconciliation bill to raise the debt ceiling and fund the government ASAP, which would effectively require Democrats to abandon the programs in the $3.5 trillion reconciliation package; or

• Carve-out the debt ceiling and government funding votes from the filibuster rule.

          Democrats are in this untenable situation because Senators Manchin and Sinema insist on maintaining the fiction that the filibuster forces bipartisan cooperation. McConnell is exploiting their feigned fondness for arcane parliamentary rules to force Democrats to abandon Biden’s legislative agenda in order to keep the nation’s lights on.

          The worst part of this mess is that Krysten Sinema is working with McConnell to defeat Biden’s agenda. The Hill reported on Monday that Sinema is holding a fundraiser sponsored by a PAC that is seeking to kill Biden’s proposed taxes to fund the bills. See The Hill, “Sinema to hold fundraiser with groups opposed to social spending package.” Sinema will host her fundraiser with opponents of Biden’s agenda on Tuesday—a few days before she will be asked to vote “Yay” or “Nay” on the reconciliation package.

          Let’s face facts: Sinema is no longer a Democrat. She is a reliable ally of Mitch McConnell. Josh Marshall of Talking Points Memo has been writing about the possibility that Sinema will run as an Independent in 2024. Indeed, polling shows that she is currently viewed more favorably by Republicans in Arizona than by Democrats. See Talking Points Memo, “A Democrat Only Republicans Can Love.” Per TPM,

          Just 47% of Dems approved her performance as Senator. . . . Her approval among Republicans was an eye-popping 54%. Only 32% disapproved. In an era of polarization that’s an astonishing 22% net approval from the opposite party.

          Manchin, of course, is motivated by his personal financial interests in coal processing facilities rather than the welfare of millions of Americans. This is the motley crew that Biden must work with to achieve legislative success in Congress. If he succeeds to any extent—and odds are that he will—it will be a remarkable achievement. As I wrote last week, Biden is in this complicated game of four-dimensional chess because his ambitions are great. He could have settled for more highways and bridges, but he has instead fought for working Americans who deserve the support of their government. If you might lose, you should go down swinging while fighting for worthy goals. Go Joe!

Follow-up to Kagan’s essay about our constitutional crisis.

          I devoted yesterday’s newsletter to discussing Robert Kagan’s op-ed in The Washington Post, “Our constitutional crisis is already here.” Many readers wrote to say that they agreed with my analysis and were relieved that I disagreed with Kagan’s assertion that violence and breakdown of civil law are inevitable. Several readers noted that I (and Kagan) failed to acknowledge the possibility that Trump would not run in 2024 because of criminal prosecution or ill health. Many others bemoaned the apparent inertia of the DOJ in the face of the ongoing threat from Trump. And a handful sent notes saying that I was naïve and was encouraging people to be complacent. (As to the latter criticisms, I refer readers to my previous 1,250 newsletters urging Democrats to resist Trumpism with every ounce of effort they can muster.)

          One reader sent a link to an op-ed in Politico by Jack Shafer, “Why the Fear of Trump May Be Overblown.” The thesis of Shafer’s essay is that the ongoing efforts to undermine the 2024 election admit that Trumpism has already lost. Shafer acknowledges (as do I) that Trump may succeed in sowing chaos and confusion in the 2024 election, but states that the plan to do so is an admission of defeat:

          By signaling an attempt to regain power by any means necessary, Trump essentially confesses that Trumpism is not [now] and is not likely to become a majoritarian movement.

          I have often described the Republican Party as engaging in a “rearguard action” to delay its inevitable demise. The reason Republicans are fighting with such tenacity and viciousness is that they understand the GOP’s days are numbered. Shafer describes the phenomenon as follows:

          Trump and his Republicans fear their own disintegration. That sense of threat gives them power over the voter base, but it has also made them politically desperate. Their lack of scruples doesn’t make them omnipotent: it makes them vulnerable to serious and determined opponents. The wildness of Trump’s last-ditch maneuver, whatever it turns out to be, will require much from us, but above all it will oblige us to keep our cool and just vote. You don’t beat a crazy card player by going crazier.

          There is much wisdom in the above quote from Shafer. It bears re-reading. “Above all, it will oblige us to keep our cool and just vote.” I would add, “and ensure that others vote, as well.” If you found comfort in my essay yesterday, I recommend Shafer’s op-ed for your consideration.

Although it may not always feel like it, we are winning the battle against Trumpism. Don’t let defeatists dissuade or discourage you from continuing the fight. It will not be easy and the danger from Trumpism is great. But we are winning and will continue to win if you continue to engage in politics as never before in your lives.

          As always, we must be realists; we must not overestimate or underestimate the threats we face. It will get worse before it gets better, but it will get better. We have every reason to be hopeful, but no reason to be complacent.

Increasing voter turnout by focusing on new voters graduating from high school and college.

          Several readers responded to yesterday’s newsletter by asking for direction on steps we can take to stop the ongoing insurrection. My first piece of advice is this: If you are participating in some form of political engagement, do more of the same! But one activity each of us must engage in for 2022 and 2024 is increasing voter turnout. And one of the most fertile grounds for increasing turnout is registering eligible students in high school and college.

          The conventional wisdom is that young voters don’t show up at the polls. But according to US Census data, “86% of young people ages 18-24 who were registered to vote turned out to vote in November 2020.” See Laura W. Brill of The Civics Center, “Stop Being Invisible.” According to Brill,

          Low youth turnout is driven not by lack of interest, but by obstacles to voter registration. Increasing youth voter registration to the same level as registration rates for older voters would likely result in more than 4 million additional votes cast in presidential elections.

          The Civics Center (linked above), recently published data showing the percentage of eligible high school students (by district) who were registered to vote. In California, the percentages ranged from above 90% in Walnut Valley USD to 36% in Los Angeles USD. Ouch! There are literally millions of high school students who are or will be eligible to vote in 2022—but who won’t vote if they are not registered. The Civics Center is begging for volunteers to sponsor voter registration drives within high schools. If you are an educator or were educated by an educator, you have the qualifications to help. Check out the volunteer opportunities (and donation opportunities) at the link above.

          At the college level, the Campus Election Engagement Project (CEEP) is engaged in non-partisan registration drives on campus. Per a recent CEEP newsletter, 4,000,000 young people are turning 18 each year in 2021 and 2022, resulting in an average of 160,000 new voters in each state before the 2022 elections. If you stare at those numbers for a moment, you will realize that there is tremendous opportunity to tilt the balance in battleground states simply by registering college students. And as the US Census Bureau data show, if you register young people, they will vote 86% of the time!

          CEEP is likewise recruiting volunteers to organize education and registration drives on campus. Why not adopt a nearby campus with some friends and fellow activists? It will be fun, energizing, hard work, and totally worth it! The democracy you save might be your own!

Concluding Thoughts.

          We are in a particularly exhausting moment in the first year of Biden’s presidency. The next week or two will be a rollercoaster ride of emotions tied to legislative victories and losses. Biden has been president for only seven months and is attempting to deliver a once-in-a-generation package to improve the lives of all Americans. That’s impressive. But the menacing undertone of Trump’s base and the bad faith of the GOP is emotionally draining. That’s what they want. They want to exhaust us with fear and deception and outrage. Don’t let them succeed. We must be able to maintain calm and strength and professional distance as we fight like never before. As Jack Shafer wrote, the upcoming challenges “will require much from us, but above all it will oblige us to keep our cool and just vote.” Add to that “and ensure that others vote, too.”

          Talk to you tomorrow!

Postscript: CalFire is making a valiant stand on the Mineral King Road in an attempt to save our mountain community. We owe them a debt of gratitude, come what may. CalTopo KNP Complex Fire Map