Today’s Edition: “Just the beginning.”

July 16, 2021

          After more than 150 years, the effort to secure the civil rights of Black Americans is still “just beginning.” So said the head of the Congressional Black Caucus, Representative Joyce Beatty, who was arrested today in the Capitol complex for holding a small, peaceful rally in support of the For the People Act. See CNN, “Rep. Joyce Beatty arrested at voting rights protest.” Rep. Beatty said,

          I stand in solidarity with the Black women and allies across the country in defense of our constitutional right to vote. We have come too far and fought too hard to see everything systematically dismantled and restricted by those who wish to silence us. Be assured that this is just the beginning.        

          Rep. Beatty’s arrest came on the day that Texas Democrats met with Senator Manchin to discuss the need for federal voting rights protection. Manchin suggested after the meeting that he was working on his own version of “basic” voting rights and told reporters to “forget about the filibuster.” See ABC News, “Texas Democrats meet with Manchin on voting rights.” Manchin is temporizing because he knows that the only path forward is to modify the filibuster, which he is reluctant to do. Time is running out, which is why advocates like Representative Beatty are holding peaceful protests in the Capitol. We may need to expand civil disobedience like that employed by Representative Beatty today until it is impossible to say no to millions of Americans demanding protection for the most fundamental right of democracy. This may be just the beginning of a long struggle. It is always so. Let’s not despair over that fact but lean into it—like Representative Joyce Beatty did today.

“Objects in mirror may be closer than they appear.”

          During Trump’s presidency, his relationship with Russia seemed inexplicable. Unless, of course, (a) Russia was promoting Trump because it viewed his presidency as advantageous to Russia, (b) Russia was blackmailing Trump, and (c) Trump willingly accepted the help and submitted to the blackmail. On Thursday, The Guardian published a report about an alleged leak from the Kremlin that appeared to confirm the three assumptions noted above. See The Guardian, “Kremlin papers appear to show Putin’s plot to put Trump in White House.” The article begins with this provocative paragraph:

          Vladimir Putin personally authorized a secret spy agency operation to support a “mentally unstable” Donald Trump in the 2016 US presidential election during a closed session of Russia’s national security council, according to what are assessed to be leaked Kremlin documents.

          The story claims that Vladimir Putin signed a decree ordering Russia’s three intelligence agencies to “find practical ways to support Trump.” The goal of such help was to install a “mentally unstable” candidate in the Oval Office who would cause social turmoil and weaken America. Per The Guardian, the leaked report refers to “kompromat” about Trump contained in an addendum that is not included in the leaked material.

          The Guardian has concluded that the leaked material is legitimate. We should approach The Guardian report with a large dose of skepticism. Chris Krebs, the former Director of  Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security (who was fired by tweet for saying the 2020 election was “the most secure in history,”) tweeted the following:

          This [Guardian Report] is far too convenient & reeks of #disinfo operation. It could all be individually or collectively true and at the same time planted & fake.

          So far as I can tell, major outlets like the NYTimes and WaPo are not reporting on the story except to raise questions about the authenticity of the leaked documents. See WaPo, “A blockbuster document purportedly from the Kremlin raises lots of questions — about itself.” (“[I]t's hard not to be skeptical of the document . . . . it reads like one of those viral Twitter threads from a guy with 4.4 million followers whose bio describes him as ‘resister-in-chief.’”)

          The alleged leak conveniently confirms our deepest suspicions about Trump and Russia. It could be true, it could be a prank, or it could be an effort to confuse and divide Americans. I am not an intelligence analyst, but it seems odd to me that Putin would sign a “decree” that effectively admits Russia’s plan to interfere in U.S. elections. Doesn’t Putin have people beneath him who would sign such “decrees”? And why does Putin (or anyone else) need to sign a “decree” to tell Russia’s intelligence agencies to mess with America? Isn’t that what they do every day?

          As Chris Krebs notes, everything in the alleged report could be collectively true and still be a “plant.” We must avoid “confirmation bias” in which we set aside healthy skepticism because the story mirrors our pre-existing beliefs about Trump. Just as in a vehicle’s side view mirror, “Objects may be closer than they appear.” In this instance, those “objects” may be our own beliefs that are being reflected in a Russian disinformation campaign. Or not. Let’s keep an open mind and be cautious in discussing the story.

Arizona “audit” devolves into ‘theater of the absurd.’

The men running the audit of the Maricopa County, Arizona presidential election held a press conference on Thursday. They essentially said, “We got nothing,” but took a long time to say it and did so with ominous music playing in the background. They pleaded for more time and demanded more alleged “evidence” from the Maricopa County elections board, which mocked the presentation in real-time by tweet. The demand for ever more information is an obvious delaying tactic to put off the day of reckoning when their risible report will be exposed to public view. See “Talking Points Memo, ‘Sharpiegate’ Redux: Arizona Auditors Preview Red Meat In Another Bizarre Hearing.”

Supreme Court Update.

          To paraphrase a Chevy Chase quip from Saturday Night Live decades ago, “Justice Stephen Breyer still hasn’t retired.” See WaPo, “Justice Stephen Breyer: No decision on retiring from Supreme Court.”

          A reader sent a series of notes today about a disturbing trend on the Supreme Court. Justices Kavanaugh and Gorsuch have both accepted teaching positions at the Antonin Scalia School of Law at George Mason University. That alone sounds suspect, but the Justices are teaching their courses in England and Italy over the summer. Sounds a lot like George Mason University is paying for the summer vacations of two of the Court’s Justices. See George Mason University, “Summer Program: National Security & Separation of Powers,” and WTOP, “Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh to teach summer class in England for George Mason law.”

          It is shocking that the Supreme Court is not subject to a code of judicial conduct or ethics. It is up to the Court to create such a code, but it has not gotten around to doing so during the 232 years of its existence. So, the Justices are on their honor to recuse themselves when they feel like it and otherwise behave themselves in relations with parties and lawyers who appear before them. In general, they have failed miserably in doing so. Justice Scalia died while on a free hunting trip at lodge owned by a business that had recently appeared before the Court. See NYTimes, (2/26/16) “Scalia Took Dozens of Trips Funded by Private Sponsors.” (“Scalia died two weeks ago, he was staying, again for free, at a West Texas hunting lodge owned by a businessman whose company had recently had a matter before the Supreme Court.”)

          The Supreme Court is in desperate need of reform. Let’s hope that the commission created by Biden to study Supreme Court reforms will demand that the Justices enact a stringent code of ethics and conduct. Americans deserve no less from the Court.

A banner day for Biden’s American Rescue Plan.

          A revolution in American social policy began on Thursday thanks to Biden’s American Rescue Plan. The IRS started disbursing monthly payments to nearly every household with children across the US. Families received $300 for each child under 6 years old, and $250 for every child between 6 and 17. These payments are technically an advance on the new Child Tax Credit, which was expanded as part of Biden’s American Rescue Plan. Families will receive half of the credit through monthly installments until the end of the year, and the other half as part of their refund when they file their taxes next year.

          The tax credits are easily the most important social policy reform since the Affordable Care Act passed in 2010 and may prove to be just as important as LBJ's Great Society programs or FDR's New Deal. The payments could cut child poverty nearly in half—a significant achievement on it own. But the structure of the policy is a revolution in how our society chooses to support families. It provides cash directly to families (as opposed to vouchers for housing or food) trusting parents to spend the money on whatever they believe is best for their children. Unlike many other poverty programs, families don't have to undergo burdensome processes to demonstrate eligibility. And unlike the previous version of the Child Tax Credit, families can receive these payments even if they have no earned income. Finally, almost every family, except for the most affluent, are eligible. As is true with Social Security and Medicare, universality helps to build political support and ensure this program will stick around.

          The American Rescue Plan only authorized the expanded Child Tax Credit for one year. The Biden Administration and Congressional Democrats have insisted they will extend the payments beyond 2022 in the next budget reconciliation bill—but are encountering resistance in negotiations. If the program becomes a political football in every budget fight, it risks being watered down. Biden was smart and courageous in launching a revolution in anti-poverty policy in the American Rescue Plan. This policy may be one of the administration's most important legacies. Let’s hope that congressional Democrats fight to make the credits permanent.

Concluding Thoughts.

          Tonight’s newsletter was written after being under anesthesia earlier today, so please exercise more than the usual amount of skepticism when reading this edition. Thanks to all who sent well wishes regarding my medical procedure today. According to my doctor, I am good for another 50,000 miles, so I purchased an extended warranty (though I declined the rust resistant sealant—it’s a scam!).

          Have a good weekend! Talk to you on Monday!