Today’s Edition: “It’s hard to beat someone who won’t give up.”

November 4, 2021

          I am not giving up. You shouldn’t, either.

          The losses in the Virginia gubernatorial and House of Delegates races have rattled Democrats. The media went into overdrive with predictions of doom in 2022 and 2024. Republicans were gleeful, talking about the beginning of a red wave. If you are a Democrat who cares about preserving democracy, Wednesday was a difficult day. While there are reasons for concern and lessons to be learned, it is foolish to conclude that the losses in Virginia predetermine the results in 2022 and 2024. And those pundits who confidently predict that “All is lost” are assuming that Democrats are powerless to affect the outcome in 2022 and 2024. That is a mistake of the first order that demonstrates a lack of intellectual rigor, ignorance of recent history, and disregard for the 72 million registered Democrats in America. Those pundits and politicians who over-interpret the results in Virginia do so at their peril. You shouldn’t make that mistake, either.

          Emails from readers began flooding my inbox late Tuesday evening after it became clear that McAuliffe would lose and that the House of Delegates would flip. I will devote this newsletter to responding to the themes raised in the reader emails. As I do so, I am mindful of the sage advice that my wife (a.k.a. Managing Editor) sometimes shares with me: “Don’t tell me how to feel.” In responding to reader emails, I am not trying to tell you how to feel nor am I criticizing specific reader responses. I recognize the reality of the disappointment, distress, and despair that the losses in Virginia provoked in some readers. Several referred to PTSD and flashbacks to election night in 2016. Feeling bad in response to unexpected losses is a healthy reaction. An unhealthy response to bad news is to deny reality and claim that the loss must be the result of a massive conspiracy. It is a sign of the collective mental health of Democrats that they are accepting their losses—bad feelings and all—rather than invoking conspiracy theories. In that, we should take pride.

          I received many responses that were variations of “I quit,” “I give up,” or “I can’t care any longer.” Expressing those feelings in a moment of frustration is understandable, but as I told one reader, “You don’t mean that.” We need to keep the losses in Virginia in perspective. The gift of American democracy was bestowed upon us by the blood sacrifice, faithful service, and hard work of ten generations of Americans who preceded us. If all it takes to cause us to “quit” is losing the governorship and legislature in one state, we are unworthy of the birthright of democracy that others earned for us. We are asked only to preserve that democracy until our children take our places on the ramparts. We cannot be the first generation to falter in our duty. If we quit or retreat or disengage, we are turning our backs on those who fought to preserve democracy for us. In short, quitting is not an option, even if you feel like doing so.

          When I responded to some readers that it was “only a matter of time” before we achieved victory, several replied that they doubted that victory would occur “in my lifetime.” For most readers, it is true that the ultimate promises of the Constitution will not be fully achieved in our lifetimes. But the same was true for those who labored before us, including Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr., John Lewis, Susan B. Anthony, Frederick Douglas, and Margaret Sanger. Like them, our charge is to make incremental progress during our lifetimes. We can do that.

          I was surprised by how many readers praised the Republican campaign effort in Virginia, using words like “lockstep,” “monolithic,” “on message,” and “disciplined.” It is true that the Republicans were “on message,” but it was a message rooted in racism, fear, and lies. Republicans have skillfully managed to disguise racism as an issue about parental control of education. They used the dog-whistle of Critical Race Theory, which has nothing to do with education in primary or secondary schools in Virginia or anywhere else in America. Critical Race Theory in Republican hands has become code for invoking the fear of “replacement theory,” i.e., the irrational fear that “minorities will replace whites” in America. The historical antecedents for similarly “disciplined” and “on-message” campaigns in Europe are not praiseworthy. Of course, we must acknowledge that the GOP’s implicit invocation of racial fears was effective in motivating the GOP base, but we should not confuse its effectiveness with something that Democrats should emulate.

          Almost all readers criticized the lack of a coherent message from Democrats. There is truth in that criticism—a criticism that pre-dated the Virginia losses. McAuliffe was hindered by the fact that the last six months in Washington have been dominated by the chaos created by Senators Manchin and Sinema. Instead of going into an election with a solid legislative accomplishment by Biden, McAuliffe was burdened with daily video of Democratic squabbling and discussion of price tags—$1.7 trillion or $2.1 trillion—rather than benefits, like expanded Medicare, tuition-free community colleges, and childcare.

          Rationalizing aside, if messaging is a problem, it is fixable. That is why extrapolating the Virginia results onto 49 other elections that are one year and three years hence is fatuous. Pollsters from both parties are deconstructing the exit polling in Virginia and will develop elaborate plans to respond to what voters say to them. One thing is certain, however. No voter will say, “I voted against McAuliffe because Youngkin stoked my fear of being replaced by non-white workers and voters.” The reason that the GOP has gone to such great length to make Critical Race Theory an issue is because they know it works. Let’s not fool ourselves about that fact. If we have any hope of coming up with an effective counter-message, we shouldn’t waste our time shadow-boxing over false narratives that conceal an ugly truth.  (I have not reviewed the post-election exit polling, so I acknowledge that there may other factors that unified Republican voters.)

          Here is another fixable problem: turnout. Youngkin is winning by 80,800 votes as of Wednesday evening. Although turnout was at a record level for a gubernatorial election in Virginia, turnout was far below the 2020 presidential election levels. Approximately 1.1 million fewer voters showed up at the polls in 2021 than in 2020. A reader noted that in Fairfax County—a Democratic stronghold—there was a deficit of 142,000 Democratic voters showing up at the polls in 2021 versus 2020. Here are the numbers:

2020 For Biden        420k                          For Trump      168k

2021 For McAuliffe  278k                          For  Youngkin 149k

          If you look at those numbers for a moment, you will see that Youngkin lost some support in Fairfax County versus Trump (19,000 votes), but McAuliffe lost 142,000 votes versus Biden. That is a turnout problem, which created a deficit that was enough to flip the result in the election! Of course, turnout is higher in presidential election years, but the dramatic drop-off in Democratic turnout in Fairfax County is a huge problem—one that is fixable!

          Other readers blamed Biden’s declining favorability ratings as the reason for the losses in Virginia. The president’s popularity undoubtedly had an effect, but neither Biden nor Trump were on the ballot. And Youngkin is no Donald Trump, despite the best efforts of McAuliffe to suggest otherwise.

          Which brings me to the most mystifying point of all: the short attention span of almost everyone in the world of politics. Remember that time—less than two months ago!—when pundits were predicting doom for the GOP in 2022 because Gavin Newsom administered a thumping to Trump-clone Larry Elder? After Elder’s loss, “Republicans and strategists downplayed any connection between the result and what might happen in congressional races more than a year away.” Democrats should be making the same argument about Virginia rather than engaging in a circular firing squad of blame.

          A prime example of the short attention span is Jonathan Last, who I cited earlier in the week when he wrote on November 1st that Youngkin’s “strategy might not be replicable [in other states], because Youngkin never had to face Republican primary voters.” Two days later, Last has declared, “At this point, the House is gone in 2022. Just gone. And the Senate, too.” Wow! That’s some turnaround in Last’s view in two days, especially considering that Youngkin performed exactly as Last predicted on Monday of this week.

          Here’s my point in response to the tidal wave of doomsaying predictions that are washing over us this week: Pundits are falling victim to a cognitive bias in which they overweight more recent events in comparison to more distant events. Newsom shellacked Larry Elder, while Youngkin beat McAuliffe by only 1.5 percentage points. But because the Virginia race is more recent, it is given more weight and significance. Every pundit worth his or her salt can recite the name of that cognitive bias (the “recency bias”), but they can’t help falling victim to it. Just because they can’t help themselves doesn’t mean that we must do so as well. (Pre-emptive caveat: Yes, I know that California is not Virginia and that a recall election is not the same as a gubernatorial general election.)  

          Dan Rather addressed this phenomenon in his most recent column, where he observes that with the passage of time, we are better able to understand the significance of events. Rather writes:  

          I have seen the road to progress in my lifetime take many detours. Sometimes new chasms emerge that seem uncrossable. But the reason progress often gets back on track is because people refuse to give up. They regroup, rethink, reorganize, but don’t retreat.

          I have no way of predicting where we will go. I do know, however, that fatalism has never been a winning strategy. And I firmly believe, with my life’s experience as my guide, that what we sometimes see in the moment looks very different in retrospect. But to change that fate requires energy and perseverance. Recovery is not inevitable, but it is not impossible—not by a long shot.  

Concluding Thoughts.

          I am not giving up. You shouldn’t, either.

Talk to you tomorrow! Stay strong!