Today’s Edition: “Houston, we have a deal.”

June 25, 2021

          On Thursday, President Biden announced, “We have a deal.” Biden was referring to his agreement with a bipartisan group of Senators for an infrastructure bill. The question of what that simple announcement means will consume the political landscape for the next several months. The fact that the 20 Senators reached a tentative agreement on infrastructure is encouraging. It comes on the same day that another bipartisan group of Senators said they had agreed on a framework for police reform.  Good! Bipartisanship is breaking out everywhere!

           But almost immediately after Biden’s announcement, the complications set in. Biden clarified that he would sign the bipartisan infrastructure bill only if the Congress simultaneously passed his larger budget reconciliation bill. See Fox News, “Biden says he won't sign bipartisan spending deal without Democrats' infrastructure wish list.” Speaker Pelosi immediately reinforced Biden’s message, saying that the House won't take up the bipartisan bill until Senate votes on reconciliation. Although Biden claimed that the “tandem approach” of the two bills was always part of the negotiations, Mitch McConnell begged to differ. McConnell claimed that Biden’s demand for a simultaneous reconciliation bill amounted to Biden “caving to the left” on the infrastructure bill.

          So, what does this all mean? What will happen? Almost all commentators are admitting that they have no idea what the competing announcements mean or what will happen. In lieu of making a prediction about the outcome, I will instead try to explain the source of the confusion so you can make your own judgment. The confusion starts with the fact that some bills are subject to the filibuster rule (requiring 60 votes to bring a bill to the floor for a vote), while other bills are not subject to filibuster. One category of bill that is not subject to filibuster is a so-called “budget reconciliation bill.” In general, there is only one “budget reconciliation bill” each year. With the distinction in mind, let’s review the bidding.

• Biden used the reconciliation process to get his Covid relief bill passed.

• Subsequently, the Senate Parliamentarian said that the reconciliation process could be used one more time in 2021.

• Democrats used the Parliamentarian’s ruling to propose a second reconciliation bill—Biden’s $2 trillion infrastructure bill.

• Mitch McConnell announced that no Republican Senator would vote for Biden’s infrastructure bill. Forbes, “McConnell Says No Republicans Will Support Biden’s Infrastructure Plan.”

• Joe Manchin announced that he would not vote for a reconciliation bill (like infrastructure) that did not include support from Republicans. Without Manchin’s support, the infrastructure bill would fail in the Senate. See Business Insider, “Manchin Says Will Block Biden Infrastructure Bill If No GOP Backing.”

• The announcements from McConnell and Manchin meant that the only way for a reconciliation-based infrastructure bill to pass was through bipartisan support.

• Manchin, Sinema and others forged a bipartisan consensus with ten Republicans for a framework for a $500 billion infrastructure bill (not the $2 trillion proposed by Biden).

• On Thursday, Biden announced that “We have a deal” with the bipartisan group on the smaller, $500 billion infrastructure bill.

• Minutes later, Biden and Pelosi announce that they will support the $500 billion bipartisan infrastructure bill only if Congress also passes the remainder of Biden’s $2 trillion proposal that was not included in the slimmed-down infrastructure bill.

          As many commentators have noted, Democrats may have duped Republicans. In Biden’s view, there is a bipartisan agreement on $500 billion of his original proposal, and then Democrats pass the remainder in a straight party-line vote that includes support from Senator Manchin. As implausible as that seems, Senator Manchin seemed to indicate on Thursday that he agreed with Biden’s interpretation of what happened. See The Hill, “Manchin says Democratic-only infrastructure bill 'inevitable'.”

          Why would Republicans tolerate this situation? Because it allows them to vote on part of a popular bill, while still giving them the opportunity to claim they opposed wasteful spending. But before we start pouring Champagne, we must recognize that getting to “Yes” on both bills will be challenging. Minutes after Manchin said that a Democratic-only reconciliation bill was inevitable, he said, “We have to see what’s in the other plan before I can say, ‘Oh yes, you vote for this and I’ll vote for that.’ That’s not what I have signed up for.” It isn’t going to be easy, and the outcome is not assured. But Thursday represented progress. Good for Joe Biden!

Pushing back against the Big Lie: Giuliani law license suspended, Michigan Republicans refute Trump’s claims.

In two encouraging developments, the New York Appellate Court suspended Rudy Giuliani’s law license because of “uncontroverted evidence that Giuliani "communicated demonstrably false and misleading statements to courts, lawmakers and the public at large.” See CBS News, “Rudy Giuliani has New York law license suspended for election falsehoods.” The order is here: Matter of Giuliani (2021-00506). The decision is important because it rebuts dozens of the lies that Trump has been promoting in support of his claim that he won the 2020 election.

          Michigan Republicans delivered a similar rebuke to Trump’s claims of election fraud. In response to Trump’s incessant claims that the election results in Michigan were changed to award Joe Biden that state’s electoral votes, the Michigan Senate Oversight Committee (controlled by Republicans) conducted an investigation. The Committee concluded that there was no evidence to support Trump’s claims of election fraud in Michigan. Predictably, Trump attacked the Michigan GOP. See Detroit Free Press, “Trump lashes out at Michigan Republican senators after report refutes fraud claims.”

          Both developments are positive steps that suggest rationality may be overtaking Republican conspiracy mongering. But the danger remains. The Department of Homeland Security is worried that rumors of Trump’s “reinstatement” in August may lead to violence. See Politico, “DHS is concerned about Trump reinstatement conspiracy theory, top official says.”  Actions like those of the New York Appellate Court and Republican Senators in Michigan are vitally important to repudiating the dangerous theories that have become the lifeblood of the GOP.

Reminders of why Trump is unfit to be president (again).

          Two new revelations remind us why it is imperative to defeat Trump if he runs in 2024. During the height of the unrest over the George Floyd murder, Trump’s prescription for handling violent protesters was to “Just shoot them,” “Crack their skulls,” and “Beatthe ****out of them.” See CNN, “'Just shoot them': New book reports what Donald Trump said about protesters.” The man can never again be allowed to be in charge of the U.S. military. He is a menace.

          During the height of the first wave of the pandemic, Trump became infected with the coronavirus. Trump was gravely ill, a fact that Trump, his doctors, and his family concealed from the American public. See WaPo, “‘Nightmare Scenario’ book excerpt: Inside the extraordinary effort to save Trump from covid-19.” (“Those who were briefed on Trump’s medical condition that weekend said he was gravely ill and feared that he wouldn’t make it out of Walter Reed.”) Even Mike Pence was kept out of the loop regarding Trump’s medical condition. It was a reckless and dangerous response to a crisis. The man can never be allowed to be in charge of the U.S. government. He is a menace.

A different approach to postcarding.

          A reader involved with The Civics Center, sent a note regarding an effort to register young voters through postcarding. The effort is premised on the fact that most young people are never asked to register to vote. The model used by the Civics Center is a bit different from other postcarding organizations. Civics Center postcards include a QR code that enables recipients to easily access a voter registration portal. If voters register through the portal, Civics Center can then send reminders to vote. (The Civics Center does not provide names and addresses to other organizations.) To participate, volunteers make a donation to obtain the specially coded postcards; they can then send the postcards themselves or direct their donations to fund the efforts of other postcard writers. As I said, it is a different approach; the use of QR codes and computerized follow-up is more expensive; hence, the request for donations. If this sounds like something that interests you, check it out.

Concluding Thoughts.

The legislative process is hard to watch. But the fact that the parties are disagreeing about what they agreed to is progress. Frankly, it is more progress than I believed could be achieved. I am always happy to be proven wrong, especially when I am pessimistic. The outcome of the bipartisan bill agreement is unknowable at the moment. The most that can be said is that the 20 Senators who were part of the negotiations will support the agreement.  Let’s hope that something comes of the effort. If, on the other hand, the Republicans renege, we will have learned a valuable lesson. But let’s not waste a lot of time learning that lesson. As John Wayne said, “We are burning daylight”—and we have much to do.

          Talk to you on Monday! Enjoy the weekend!