Today’s Edition: Hardening our resolve.

November 3, 2021

          As I write on Tuesday evening, the outcome of the Virginia governor’s race is uncertain, as is the fight for control of the Virginia House of Delegates. One fact is certain: The governor’s race will be decided by a narrow margin. And yet, based on the difference of a few tens of thousands of votes scattered over 95 counties, pundits will predict the fate of the nation for the next two election cycles. Don’t waste your time fretting over those snap judgments. There will be lessons to be learned from the results in Virginia, but they will require reflection, data analysis, and interviews with voters. The most important lesson to be learned is that we control our destiny by the actions we take—not by the amount of worry we invest in the outcome.

          With the above in mind, we should not make excuses or engage in rationalizations if Terry McAuliffe loses. Nor should we tout a victory. The Virginia governor’s race was winnable for Democrats. If McAuliffe falls short, that is a bad outcome, and we must do our best to understand the mechanics of that defeat to avoid repetition. In doing so, we must maintain professional distance from the outcome so that our analysis is not clouded by bruised feelings or dashed hopes. Our job as defenders of democracy is to contest every race and win as many as possible. We won’t win them all. We don’t have to. We need only win enough to prevail over the long term. We can do that.

The reconciliation bill.

          Reports are emerging on Tuesday that the Democrats are close to final agreement on the reconciliation bill. Unlike the prior media reports that a deal was close at hand, these reports are accurate. Unless they are not, in which case we have been fooled again by eager journalists who are over-interpreting the information they are being fed by sources trying to manipulate the outcome through the media. Sigh.

          But, like Charlie Brown who cannot resist another attempt at kicking the football held by Lucy, I will once again attempt to summarize where things stand in a highly volatile situation. Per Talking Points Memo, Democrats finally agreed on a greatly diminished plan to allow the federal government to negotiate drug prices under limited circumstances and restrict price increases for existing drugs to a benchmark cost of living adjustment. The deal will cap the out-of-pocket costs for seniors on Medicare at $2,000—a cap that effectively doubles the cost of healthcare for seniors on fixed incomes—all thanks to Senator Sinema.

          For once, Senator Sinema released a statement confirming her support for the purported agreement. But even in confirming that she had found common cause with her Democratic colleagues, her statement was bizarre and revisionist. Sinema’s statement said, in part:

          After Senator Sinema reached earlier agreement with President Biden to include historic Medicare drug negotiations in the reconciliation package—policies that were omitted from the original framework at the request of members of the House—Speaker Pelosi reached out to Senator Sinema this past weekend to continue negotiations.

          Sinema’s statement amounts to deceit by omission. She personally killed the proposal to allow the federal government to negotiate directly with the pharmaceutical companies over prescription drug prices. In its place, Biden was forced to accept a drastically reduced set of cost control measures. Given that Sinema is the leading recipient in the Senate of pharma company donations, we can be sure that the “historic agreement” she reached with Biden was the most favorable deal she could negotiate for the pharma industry. No matter. She will not be renominated in 2024 if she stands for re-election as a Democrat.

          That leaves us with Senator Manchin’s wobbling. I said enough yesterday for two newsletters, so I won’t repeat myself. Democrats should move forward with a vote without regard to Manchin’s support.

Supreme Court to hear argument on Second Amendment case.

          New York has limited the ability of its residents to carry concealed weapons by requiring a showing of “proper cause.” Two New York residents challenged the limitation, claiming that they have a constitutional right to carry a concealed weapon without restriction. A federal district court dismissed the case challenging the law and the Second Circuit upheld the dismissal. The Supreme Court granted review. The very fact that the Court granted review suggests that it will strike down New York’s statute, thereby clearing the way for nationwide concealed carry. Many states and cities have had similar statutes on the books for years without challenge. There was no reason for the Court to grant review unless it seeks to limit or invalidate those restrictions.

          The Court will hear oral argument on November 3rd. For a discussion of the case, see SCOTUS Blog, “In major Second Amendment case, court will review limits on carrying a concealed gun in public.” If you are interested in listening to the oral argument, a recording will be available shortly after the argument here: SupremeCourt.gov, Argument Audio 2021.

          To state the obvious, the Gorsuch/Alito/Barrett Court is on a record pace to overturn decades of settled law. Far from exercising judicial restraint, the reactionary majority is implementing the social and political agenda of a small minority of Americans. That effort will not stop for the next three decades unless we alter the composition of the Court ASAP.

Concluding Thoughts.

          As the evening has worn on, I am receiving increasingly frantic emails from readers who are already beginning to despair over anticipated losses in Virginia. Some readers are angry, saying they are done donating to Democrats because, “If they can’t win in Virginia, we are lost.” Others are cringing at the thought of the media over-reaction in tomorrow’s spin cycle and Trump’s glee at Democratic losses.

          I understand the angst and the disappointment, but if the losses materialize, the lesson is that we must do more, not less. We must increase our commitment and harden our resolve, not retreat in pity or fear. If you need a day or two to feel bad, that’s fine. But if the people reading this newsletter aren’t willing to take a loss, pick themselves up, and fight even harder, then we are lost. Whatever happens, we can’t panic. Indeed, if there is a pattern to the losses that can help us change the outcome in future elections, we are fortunate to have Virginia as a wake-up call.

          My favorite email tonight is the following from a reader who is writing postcards even as she watches the dismal election returns:

          These losses are discouraging, but I'm maintaining my faith in our Democracy! Losses will happen, but it only means we have to work even harder. I'm prepared for the fact that the media is going to be all over this, regardless of how all of the races turn out, saying that it's a sign that Biden's Presidency is doomed. But that's wrong - He has 3+ years to achieve his goals, This is a marathon, not a sprint. Now we know what we have to do in 2022 and 2024. These handful of elections happening in an odd number year, with predictably dismal turnout, cannot be used to judge how well Biden is doing.

          I won't listen to the naysayers, I plan to just keep writing postcards, and anything else I can do, to get this big ship pushed around in the right direction. It takes time to right the course, but we'll do it, we have to.

          There is no doubt that Democrats will prevail over time. It is inevitable. Republicans are attempting to perpetuate minority rule with a minority that is shrinking and will continue to do so. Our job is to hold the fort long enough for the inevitable change to become permanent.

          The next few days may be difficult. They will pass. We cannot dwell on losses; we have much work to do and cannot tarry. If you can, be a source of strength and inspiration for others who are struggling to remain positive. The democracy you save may be your own!

          Stay strong, everyone! I will talk to you tomorrow.