Today's Edition: Expectation Gap
November 8, 2021
The American people just received two pieces of great news: First, the long-awaited infrastructure bill finally passed in the House and is headed to the President’s desk for signature. Second, the unemployment rate fell to 4.6%, the lowest rate in 19 months. Despite historic achievements on multiple fronts by a first-term president, Biden’s approval ratings continue to fall. What’s going on? There is no simple answer, but obvious factors include the political challenges posed by the pandemic, Democratic infighting over the Build Back Better agenda, poor messaging, and the stalemate over voting rights reform. But another factor is that many people expected more from Biden on a faster pace. In the poll cited above, 46% of respondents said that Biden has “done worse, not better than they expected.” Obviously, a lot depends on what people “expected” from Biden. And the poll reflects Biden’s performance in his first ten months on the job. Seems a bit hasty to be asking that question, doesn’t it?
There is no mystery in the seeming contradictions between Biden’s performance and his ratings. People expected great things from Biden, and he has delivered great things—just not everything that people expected (yet!). Those grand expectations included transformational legislation on climate change, sweeping voting rights reform, aggressive action on judicial nominations, wholesale reversal of Trump’s executive orders, and prosecution of Trump for extorting Ukraine and inciting insurrection. Some of the above matters are out of Biden’s hands because of the filibuster, while others reflect a more deliberate and conciliatory approach (best case) or a lack of focus and urgency (worst case). Oh, and there’s Merrick Garland, too.
Although expectation gaps are emotional responses to relative (not absolute) differences, they are real, nonetheless. Democrats can’t wish away bad ratings by suggesting that Biden is being held to an unfair and higher standard than other recent presidents. But Democrats can do something about the expectation gap by helping everyone (including themselves) focus on the substance of Biden’s achievements, not on the political horse-race narrative that fuels the 24-hour news cycle.
Let’s take the infrastructure bill as an example. It is a tremendous achievement that could be touted as the “signature” legislative accomplishment of many presidents. We should be celebrating that victory for months and years to come. After all, significant progress on infrastructure eluded Trump for four years—and Obama for eight. Indeed, to find an apt comparison, we must look back 70 years. Per The Guardian,
The bill is the biggest investment in America’s infrastructure since President Eisenhower created the interstate highway system in the 1950s, and has been a long-standing goal of both parties.
Moreover, the infrastructure bill makes the first major investment by the U.S. in the fight against climate change ever—$47 billion. See NYTimes, “Infrastructure Bill Makes First Major U.S. Investment in Climate Resilience.” That is a watershed development! In absolute terms, the $47 billion investment is cause for celebration—so let’s celebrate it! In doing so, we should not relent in our efforts to pass the much larger climate change investment included in the Build Back Better bill.
In the immediate aftermath of the passage of the infrastructure bill, the media began churning stories that sought to (a) affix blame for the delay in passing the bill (Manchinema vs. progressives) and (b) identify the “disloyal” members in each party who voted against their party’s interest. Talk about burying the lead!
Ignore the expectation gap and focus on the substance of Biden’s tremendous achievements of the infrastructure bill—and the strong economy, his successful effort to limit the coronavirus, and re-establishing the U.S. as a leader in the fight against climate change. There is more to achieve, but our task will be easier if we are not laboring under misapprehensions about the true significance of Biden’s achievements to date.
Analyzing the results in Virginia.
Like you, I have read more about the Virginia results than is good for my well-being. I finally came across an analysis that is fact-based, thoughtful, and realistic without being defeatist. The analysis is the work of Mark Bergman, a long-time Democratic Party activist and fundraiser who is based in London and has been organizing Americans abroad. Since January 2017, Mark has been hosting a weekly call-in program to showcase U.S. incumbents, candidates, political organizations, and efforts to protect democracy.
Mark’s analysis focuses on the data, demographics, and challenges of the Virginia election. If you want to know the facts without spin and hand-wringing, check out his sobering analysis here: London events/Virginia takeaways. Among the surprising findings (for me) was that negative perceptions about the economy had a greater impact than concerns about education and Critical Race Theory. Mark’s analysis is unblinking but also contains hopeful suggestions for a path forward. For example, he writes,
We should keep VA in perspective.
Younkin was able to navigate the Trump issue in ways that most Republican incumbents will be unable to do as they are so close to Trump and his message of a stolen 2020 election.
Democratic candidates going forward should be more alert to the weaponization of race and schools; message should be we want schools to be safe for all students and side-step the “parent control” theme.
While Republicans will tar Democrats as contributing to inflation around increased government spending, assuming the infrastructure packages pass, Democrats should be able to benefit from the impact of those packages on American families—childcare tax credits, universal pre-K, closure of the Medicare “gap,” investments to address climate change and, if it can find its way back into the BBBA, paid family leave.
If you want to join Mark’s mailing list, write to him at usvision2018@gmail.com His emails include selected upcoming events in the US and abroad, and his analysis of developments and trends.
Moving forward after Virginia.
After the results in Virginia, I received many emails that asked for direction on how to effectively support candidates in 2022. Some readers asked for recommendations on donating to specific candidates rather than through PACs, ActBlue, or the Democratic fundraising arms for the House and Senate. While I believe all of those giving avenues have their strengths, I understand the impulse to donate money to a specific candidate. The problem is that I am not knowledgeable enough to make relative judgments among many worthy candidates. But I have occasionally referred reader inquires to someone who is—Leonard Lubinsky, who writes Len’s Political Notes.
Len started his email effort at the same time this newsletter began—February 2017. His “notes” are highly researched, detailed, and thoughtful recommendations about worthy Democratic candidates. In response to reader requests for guidance after Virginia, I asked Len if he would write a note to Today’s Edition readers with his thoughts on how to help defend and expand the Democratic “majority” in the Senate. I include his introduction to that request below. Len will be writing a special note on his site with detailed analysis on each of the recommendations below. I will link to that note when it is sent. Here is Len’s note to the readers of this newsletter:
Hello to Today’s Edition readers!
Where should people donate early money? We should donate money in ways that make a difference for winning elections in November 2022. Today’s piece is about the Senate. Expand the Senate majority. Do it with candidates who are authentic, persuasive, and will attract votes.
Donate early because early money generates more money. It generates excitement and new donors, and can carry candidates to victory – even if the victory isn’t immediate. For example, Jon Ossoff raised enormous amounts of money for his unsuccessful 2017 special election candidacy for Georgia’s 6th Congressional District. In January 2021, riding the name recognition from his Congressional race, and with help from Stacey Abrams and fellow candidate Raphael Warnock, Ossoff was elected a US Senator from Georgia.
We know the 2022 election cycle will not be easy for Democrats. The chaotic pullout from Afghanistan and the ragged process toward achieving Joe Biden’s legislative goals have hurt his and Democrats’ standing with the American people. We can’t reclaim that regard easily. What we can do is be optimistic and determined. Select candidates whose authenticity helps them win and give those candidates the funds to make their case. Write postcards, too.
Let’s see if we can get to a majority of 54 Democrats in the Senate. But first, make sure we keep the Senators we have. A good defense makes a good offense possible. Below are my recommendations to expand the Democratic majority in the Senate.
Catherine Cortez Masto—Incumbent US Senator Nevada
Maggie Hassan—Incumbent US Senator New Hampshire
Raphael Warnock—Incumbent US Senator Georgia
Mark Kelly—Incumbent US Senator Arizona
John Fetterman—Pennsylvania (currently Lt. Governor Pennsylvania)
Val Demings—Florida (currently Member of Congress Florida)
Tim Ryan—Ohio (currently Member of Congress Ohio)
Abby Finkenauer—Iowa (Former Member of Congress Iowa)
Charles Booker—Kentucky (currently practicing attorney)
Concluding Thoughts.
During these difficult times, being engaged is an antidote to anxiety. I heard from many disappointed postcard writers who supported candidates in the Virginia election (and in the New Jersey elections, as well). The postcard writers invested dozens or hundreds of hours each to encourage turnout in another state. They had every reason to be disappointed—and they were. But to a person, they said that their reaction was to keep writing postcards, organizing, and donating more than they had in Virginia election.
If writing postcards isn’t your favorite form of political activism, pick another and throw yourself into it for a year—until the 2022 elections. Then, after election night 2022, take a few days off and pick up where you left off. We are engaged in a long-term battle to protect democracy. Virginia was a speed bump that will help us navigate the future.
It’s been about a week since the Virginia election losses. It is time to pull out of our funk and get back to the daily task of redeeming democracy.
Talk to you tomorrow!
Thanks for the guidance from Len Lubinsky. I will add it to my work list. Last night we were talking about how we must neutralize Manchin the Blackmailer. 54 seats in the Senate is a great goal.
As to the expectations gap, I find that a "popularity contest" is a meaningless mixed bag. What if there was a poll that asked how Biden was doing compared to the former guy? Biden has already accomplished more than most presidents have in their first year. What are people thinking? Did they expect Joe to be a wizard who could wave a wand and get a Congress that is filled with political puppets to act like reasonable people?
Reminder: The Senate and the House of Representatives make laws.The President can only introduce legislative ideas and then try to shepherd them. Almost all of our disappointment should be directed at a dysfunctional Congress. Until corporate and other dark money is removed from our elections, that's what we will have. A corrupt Congress. That's not any president's fault. Of course, part of the blame lies with the Supreme Court - speaking of political puppets.
There are great talking points in this newsletter. We can only hope that Democrats can figure out how to message to the public as clearly as the GQP does. But here is what makes it so baffling that we can't get our messaging better: all we have to do is tell the truth! Why is that so hard?
Thanks Robert as always and for the addition of Senate recommendations. As a psychoanalyst and a very politically engaged person, my first campaign was dragging my 16 y.o. self around Brooklyn canvassing for George McGovern, I have seen Democrats make the same errors time and time again. We can walk, talk, and chew gum at the same time. We need to be less wonky and simultaneously give out information. I find that many of my highly educated colleagues have limited knowledge of the way our government works. We all learned about the 3 branches of government, but do we really know that without a Democratic House and Congress we can't pass laws. Far too many people do not factor this in when they evaluate Biden's performance, or that of any President, and we can, succinctly and not wonkily (is that even a word?) spread that message. We need to lean into partisanship, not try to talk bipartisanship. It may have existed in the past, and we can talk about hoping it comes back, but it is really not a thing now. Maybe a bit in the House, but not in a McConnell Senate. I also hear Dems and the press talking about how we can't attract white non college educated voters, and it will be a very long time, if ever, that we can capture a majority of these voters, but we can make inroads. How? We need to stop assuming that because we want to "help" poor people by improving the material aspects of their lives, they will vote for our candidates. There is something unintentionally condescending in our messaging around this issue. We need to talk more to people's souls and hearts, and recognize that we are all more essentially human than otherwise. Obama won on "hope and change". Build back better is not nearly as inspiring a message. That doesn't mean we don't talk about material things, we spent too much time defending how we would pay for the current bills, and not enough on what they do. When are we going to understand that the best defense is a good offense. Psychoanalysis is about helping people act rather than react. I've been waiting over 50 years for Democrats to get there.