Today’s Edition: Déjà vu, all over again.

December 15, 2021

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          Progress on the reconciliation bill stalled once again because of foot-dragging by Senator Joe Manchin. Democrats have been stuck in a cruel loop since February 2021, when Biden unveiled the Build Back Better agenda and the John Lewis Voting Rights Act. After months of frustrating intra-party negotiations, no progress has been made. Senator Manchin continues his efforts to reduce overall spending in the reconciliation bill, and Senators Manchin and Sinema oppose modifying the filibuster to advance voting rights reform. Here is what I wrote in the newsletter on February 17, 2021:

          The obstacle faced by H.R.1 and the John Lewis Voting Rights Act is that both are subject to the filibuster. Unless Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema withdraw their support for the filibuster, voting reform will stall. If that happens, it may be many years before Democrats again control the presidency and both chambers of Congress. Thus, national voting reform is path-dependent on eliminating the filibuster.

          Ten months later, and nothing has changed.

          Democratic leadership has occasionally floated the idea that Manchin would “come around” on the filibuster, at least as it relates to voting rights legislation. That has always been a vain hope and false promise. On April 3, 2021, Senator Manchin gave an unequivocal answer about ending the filibuster: “Jesus Christ, what don't you understand about 'never'?” Today, Senator Sinema re-affirmed her opposition to modifying the filibuster. See The Hill, Sinema doubles down on filibuster, in setback for rules change talks.”

          The intransigence of Manchin and Sinema regarding the filibuster seems like it should be the end of any discussion of voting rights legislation until 2022. And yet, the news is filled with discussion of possible “rules reform” in the Senate that would allow a floor vote on the Voting Rights Act this month. See WaPo, “Democrats work on filibuster changes as they focus on voting rights.” And as explained in Talking Points Memo,

          Many Democrats are calling for a shift in focus, putting voting rights legislation front and center as Build Back Better negotiations continue to drag. Everyone from Sen. Bernie Sanders to President Joe Biden has endorsed the priority swap, saying voting rights is the most pressing domestic issue.

          The shift in emphasis to voting rights legislation is intended to distract attention from the lack of progress on the reconciliation bill. On Wednesday, reports of meetings between Manchin and Biden say they are “going very poorly.” A major sticking point is Manchin’s supposed opposition to extending the Child Tax Credit. Manchin is so sensitive over the issue that he yelled an obscenity at a reporter who asked the Senator whether he supported the Child Tax Credit.

          Manchin’s disingenuous negotiating strategy is to force Democrats to make untenable choices by forcing a cap on the reconciliation bill while demanding that all programs in the bill be budgeted for ten years. Thus, Manchin can claim that he supports the Child Tax Credit in a bill that does not exceed $1.7 trillion. The ten-year cost of the Child Tax Credit is $1.4 trillion. With those parameters, it appears that Manchin is negotiating in bad faith. See Business Insider, “Manchin tanks Democrats' hopes of passing Biden's big bill by Christmas with last-minute demands to cut the child tax credit.”

          Democrats are in a very difficult situation with no easy answers. They should make difficult choices and hold a vote. That is the only way to salvage some success from eleven months of negotiations. Further delay will only add to the misperception that Biden’s agenda is failing. It is not, but the protracted public negotiations are giving Republicans fodder for their disinformation campaign.

            Whatever happens with the reconciliation bill or voting rights reform, we must not accept the false narrative that the failure to pass either (or both) portends defeat in 2022. It does not! We are in a fluid environment and midterms are eleven months away. And Republicans are burdened with a twice-impeached, failed coup-plotter who is trying to take down potential rivals within his own party. Moreover, he is driving the party to ever greater extremes, making it more difficult for GOP nominees to win in general elections. For example, on Wednesday, he endorsed Rep. Lauren Boebert, who was just rebuked by the House for making Islamophobic comments.

          We can win in 2022, especially against GOP candidates who support, excuse, and glorify violent insurrectionists. Meanwhile, Democrats are pushing for programs that help feed, educate, train, and care for Americans of all ages. We have a winning message. Tell a friend!

Joe Biden visited hard-hit areas of Kentucky; Republicans decline to join the president.

          As any president should, Joe Biden visited areas of Kentucky devastated by a swarm of tornadoes late last week. Biden exhibited compassion and concern as he focused on how best to help the people of Kentucky. Biden invited the entire Kentucky congressional delegation to accompany him on the tour. The Kentucky delegation includes seven Republicans—only one of whom (Rep. James Comer) bothered to attend the visit. Comer represents the district hardest hit by the tornadoes.

          Biden was gracious to a fault, thanking Comer for welcoming the president to his district. Meanwhile, Comer promises to make investigating Hunter Biden the top priority of the House Oversight Committee if Republicans flip the House. The people who live in Comer’s district need many things; another investigation of Hunter Biden is nowhere on that list. Let’s hope that seeing the devastation in his district will motivate Comer to turn his efforts to the needs of his constituents.

Republicans focus on punctuation in Jim Jordan texts, skipping over the part about coup.

          One of the texts produced to the Select Committee by Mark Meadows was from Rep. Jim Jordan, who was forwarding a proposal that Pence disregard electoral votes. Rep Adam Schiff excerpted a portion of Jordan’s text at a hearing on Tuesday. The version displayed by Schiff placed a period at the end of the excerpted portion of Jordan’s text, which went on at length after the excerpted text. The right-wing blogosphere is ablaze over the insertion of a period by Adam Schiff at the end of the excerpt but is ignoring Jordan’s suggestion that Pence overthrow the 2020 election by disregarding electoral votes.

          But in rising to the defense of the punctuation in Jordan’s text, one right wing outlet revealed Rep. Jordan as the texter. See TPM, “The Federalist Outs Jordan As Meadows Texter While Trying To Defend Him.” Jordan has now admitted that he sent the text but is attempting to distance himself from the content of the text by explaining that he was only “passing on” the seditious suggestion of an attorney who previously worked in the Trump administration. See HuffPo, “Rep. Jim Jordan Admits To Sending One Of The Texts Revealed By Jan. 6 Committee.” Jordan has been evasive in answering questions about his communications with Trump on January 6th. Expect more damaging disclosures about a guy who has a history of being evasive about his role in cover-ups.

Len’s list of top ten House candidates to support in 2022.

          A frequent request from readers is for recommendations about candidates to support in 2022. I am not an expert in the national political landscape, so I have come to rely on Leonard Lubinsky’s recommendations. Len writes Len’s Political Notes, which provide detailed reviews and recommendations regarding Democratic candidates. Len just published a special note on this “top ten” House candidates (incumbents and challengers) where donations can make a strategic difference. See “Len's Letter #46 Ten House Candidates to Donate to Now.” If you have a favorite candidate that you are currently supporting, continue to do so! Or rely on your usual source of recommendations (e.g., EMILY's List)  The important point is to support Democrats financially now. Early money makes a big difference.

Concluding Thoughts.

          I received a lot of response to my Concluding Thoughts yesterday. The article described the unbalance created by the moral injury inflicted by witnessing ongoing injustice. The description resonated with the feelings being experienced by many readers. I was especially struck by responses from elderly readers who have devoted their lives to preserving democracy and fighting injustice. Their emails have once again prompted me to remind readers of this newsletter that we owe a special duty to elderly Americans during this fraught time.

          The pandemic has been hard on everyone, but especially so on senior Americans, which I described in Today’s Edition: 1 in 100. For seniors in skilled-care facilities or retirement homes, isolation has become the norm. Visits from family members bring risk of infection. Those hardships are compounded immeasurably by the loss of a spouse or lifetime friends. Many tell me that they are frightened and distraught by the re-emergent hate of the right-wing. Many lived through the horrors of WWII in Europe. Their fears are understandable and deserve to be heard.

          As we approach the holidays and a new year, please take a moment to reach out to elderly family members, friends, and complete strangers. A small gesture of community and kindness on your part can make a world of difference to someone who is feeling isolated and frightened. And when you reach out, don’t forget to listen. Senior Americans have a vast store of wisdom and experience that can help us maintain perspective as we navigate through our own challenges.

          Talk to you tomorrow!