Today’s Edition: “Compared to what?”

August 26, 2021

          The suffering and losses caused by the pandemic should not be reduced to political calculus. But from its inception, the pandemic has been a partisan political weapon. Indeed, opposition to efforts to contain the pandemic has become a marker of partisan identity. The resurgence of the pandemic has caused Joe Biden’s favorability ratings to drop—even though the spread has been caused by the explosion of the Delta variant among unvaccinated Americans. To a certain extent, that drop in ratings is understandable and rational, even though Biden is doing everything he can to encourage vaccinations.  When pollsters ask potential voters to rate the president’s performance on certain issues, they are responding in a vacuum. We have only one president at a time. Respondents are not asked to compare Biden’s handling of the pandemic to that of a hypothetical GOP president elected in 2024. As Biden said recently, “The buck stops with me.”

          With that throat clearing out of the way, I want to address the question of whether Democrats should be concerned about the 2024 presidential race because of Biden’s response to the pandemic. The only sensible answer is, “Yes—because we should be worried about Biden’s handling of every issue that threatens the health and security of Americans.” But I believe that whatever divots in popularity Biden suffers because of his handling of the pandemic will disappear when a GOP presidential candidate must defend his party’s reckless policies regarding masks and vaccines.

          The thesis is simple: We were on a clear path to defeat the coronavirus. Trump, Fox News, some Republican governors, and anti-vaxxers sabotaged that path by spreading disinformation and exalting “personal choice” above all else. As a result, we are facing a resurgence of infections, deaths, and business disruptions. Vaccinated Americans are paying the price for the reckless irresponsibility of the saboteurs. In 2022 and 2024, voters will punish politicians like Greg Abbot, Ron DeSantis, Doug Ducey, Kristi Noem, Ron Johnson, Kevin McCarthy, and Donald Trump (as well as anyone who defends their policies).

          In other words, I see a silver lining in Biden’s declining favorability over the pandemic. Hear me out, please! As explained in The Atlantic, Biden’s declining favorability preceded the media meltdown over the withdrawal in Afghanistan. The decline tracked the resurgence in the coronavirus and falling voter confidence in a virus-tinged future. See The Atlantic, “It’s the Pandemic, Stupid.” As noted in The Atlantic article, the “most important issue facing the country” according to respondents is the coronavirus. Afghanistan did not even make the list. As the authors note, “People are naturally taking out their frustration on the president.” As I said, that makes sense in the artificial vacuum of a poll.

          Another article in the same issue of The Atlantic puts a fine point on the “frustration” that vaccinated people are feeling towards unvaccinated. See The Atlantic, ‘Everybody I Know Is Pissed Off’.  As explained in the article, vaccinated voters in both parties blame the unvaccinated for the resurgence in the coronavirus. (80% of Democrats and 60% of Republicans blame the unvaccinated for the resurgence.) Those are not good numbers for GOP politicians opposing vaccine mandates.

          The frustration of the vaccinated is only going to get worse. Vaccinated Americans will remain relatively safe, even against the Delta variant. See Business Insider, “Fully Vaccinated People Less Infectious, Clear Covid Quicker.” (“Scientists looked at 161 "breakthrough" infections mostly caused by Delta variant.”) But their unvaccinated children will attend school in masks, and they will be crowded out of hospitals by anti-vaxxers infected with the Delta variant. Businesses will continue to suffer disruptions or closures.

          At a time of rising frustration among the vaccinated, the unvaccinated are doubling down on their “in-your-face” defense of their alleged right to act recklessly by refusing to be vaccinated. See, e.g., Yahoo News, “Chicago police union says 'hell no' to mayor’s vaccine mandate.” The contumacy of the Chicago police union flies in the face of a century of settled law permitting vaccine mandates. The U.S. Supreme Court ruled in 1905 that states had the authority to order vaccine mandates. In a case upholding mandatory smallpox vaccinations, the Court said that “It is within the police power of a State to enact a compulsory vaccination law, and it is for the legislature, and not for the courts, to determine.” Jacobson v. Massachusetts, 197 U.S. 11 (1905).

          The political divide and hard feelings will likely intensify as employers punish unvaccinated workers by increasing insurance premiums. Delta Airlines has already done so by charging unvaccinated workers an extra $200 per month for health insurance. See Axios, “Delta is choosing vaccine penalties over rewards and mandates.” Supposedly “business friendly” Republicans are in a quandary about how to react to employer-mandated vaccines. See Washington Post, “The GOP struggles with what to do on employer vaccine mandates.” If Republicans accept employer-mandated vaccine rules, their base will be angry. If Republicans prohibit businesses from doing what is necessary to keep their doors open, the GOP corporate masters will be angry.

          With the above in mind, I come back to my thesis. Yes, Biden is being blamed now for the resurgence of the pandemic. But in 2022 and 2024, GOP candidates promoting vaccine bans will face an increasingly angry electorate of vaccinated voters. Per the recent Kaiser Family Foundation study, 65% of adults have been vaccinated, including 52% of Republicans. The anti-vaccine GOP candidates will face an uphill battle against the vaccinated, even in their own party. As noted in The Atlantic article cited above,

          [A] backlash may be intensifying among those who have received the shots against those who have not. And that could leave Republican leaders who have unstintingly stressed the rights of the unvaccinated—including Governors Ron DeSantis of Florida and Greg Abbott of Texas and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy—in an exposed position.

          So, fret about Joe Biden’s favorability ratings if you must. But as with most criticisms of anyone or anything, the real questions is, “Compared to what?” For Biden, the answer is, “Compared to the politicians who are personally responsible for additional deaths, illnesses, and damage to our economy.” Biden should be worried; but Republicans should be more so.

Afghanistan.

          The U.S. is warning that an ISIS splinter group is planning attacks on crowds at the gates of the Kabul airport. NPR, “The U.S. Embassy Urges Americans Outside The Kabul Airport To Leave Immediately.” Secretary of State Antony Blinken estimated that 1,500 Americans remain in Afghanistan—a number that is within the airlift capacity of current operations. The question is whether the remaining Americans and Afghans who were promised passage to the U.S. can make it safely to the airport.

          One of the sources of outrage over the evacuation is that some Afghans will remain behind despite the fact that they cooperated with the U.S. military. It is inescapable that the U.S. will not be able to evacuate all Afghans who deserve to be relocated to the U.S. Jennifer Rubin addresses this issue in her op-ed in the Washington Post, “No pullout can rescue all vulnerable Afghans. That doesn’t make it a failure.”  Rubin writes,

         Now that the number of evacuated Americans and at-risk Afghans has cleared 87,000 since the end of July . . .  the media’s premature declaration of “failure” looks off-base. No one ever envisioned airlifting hundreds of thousands of people in such a short timeframe before the Afghan government collapsed. This was a challenge with the Trump administration’s May 1 deadline and by Biden’s agreement to leave by Aug. 31. But the problem of the left behind would have existed even if the deadline was Oct. 1 or Dec. 1. It’s simply not possible to remove a significant portion of the population after having lost the war.

          Rubin is right. If the U.S. had removed 100,000 Afghans, Biden’s critics would ask “Why not 200,000?” If the U.S. had removed 200,000 Afghans, his critics would ask, “Why not 400,000?” The success or failure of Biden’s withdrawal cannot fairly be measured by those left behind in Afghanistan. There is no scenario in which hundreds of thousands of Afghans would not have been left behind.

January 6th Select Committee.

          In an encouraging sign, the House Select Committee has issued sweeping requests for documents relating to the Trump administration’s effort to overturn the 2020 election. See CNN, “Trump makes executive privilege threat as House committee seeks documents from agencies on January 6 attack.” As a former litigator in major class actions, I have seen broad document requests. But after reviewing the list of requested documents as described in the CNN article, all I can say is, “Wow!” The House Select Committee isn’t fooling around. Good.

Concluding Thoughts.

In yesterday’s newsletter, I noted that the House had passed the John Lewis Voting Rights Act and then said (somewhat flippantly) that the bill would run into a brick wall in the Senate. A reader sent a note saying that we should not be defeatist about the bill’s prospects and urged me to urge you to contact your U.S. Senators and tell them to do what is necessary to pass the John Lewis Voting Rights Act. As always, you can locate your congressional representatives through Jessica Craven’s site, “Chop Wood, Carry Water.” Jessica provides a suggested set of talking points for leaving a message with your Senator:

Hi, I'm a constituent calling from [zip]. My name is ______.

I’m thrilled that the John Lewis Voting Rights Act passed in the House yesterday, and I’m calling to urge the Senator to please support it when it comes to the Senate.

The need for legislative action is urgent. Please fight to pass this and the For the People Act as soon as possible. Thanks. [If Dem add:] And the Democrats should absolutely reform or abolish the filibuster in order to get this done. Thanks!

          Calling your Senators will take only a few moments and can add to the momentum for passing the Act. If we don’t try, we will never succeed. Help promote the cause to which John Lewis devoted his life.

          Talk to you tomorrow!