Today’s Edition: Biden’s tough decision.

August 16, 2021

         The fall of the Afghan government to Taliban insurgents over the weekend occurred with shocking speed. The Afghan president fled the country on Saturday and Taliban flooded the capital with little resistance on Sunday. The collapse of the Afghan government after twenty years of American support should prompt deep introspection among presidents, diplomats, and the military. The exercise should not be designed to assign blame but to ensure that future commitments of American military personnel and aid is more effective. We owe that to the American troops who served in Afghanistan, to the families of those killed and wounded, and to the Americans who funded the twenty-year effort.

          We should never forget that Al-Qaeda used Afghanistan as its base of operations in the 9/11 attacks.  The Taliban regime in Afghanistan crumbled two months after the U.S. led an international operation against the Taliban beginning in late September 2001. For the next nineteen years, the U.S. led a “reconstruction effort” to create and fortify civilian rule in Afghanistan. See generally, The Council on Foreign Relations, “Timeline: The U.S. War in Afghanistan.” During the period of hostilities and reconstruction, more than 2,300 U.S. military personnel lost their lives in Afghanistan. In the 2020 presidential campaign, both Biden and Trump called for the immediate end to “America’s longest war.”  President Trump negotiated a deal directly with the Taliban to withdraw all U.S. troops from the country by May 1, 2021. (The deal was a surprise to the Afghan government, which had not been included in the negotiations.) See NPR, “Trump's Deal To End War In Afghanistan Leaves Biden With 'A Terrible Situation'.”

          President Biden adhered to the timeline for withdrawal negotiated by Trump (although Biden extended the timeline for withdrawal by four months). U.S. military commanders opposed Trump’s agreement with the Taliban and Biden’s decision to proceed with the withdrawal. As is the president’s prerogative, Biden overruled the advice of military commanders. The ensuing withdrawal has gone poorly and may deteriorate further.  

          American voters strongly support withdrawal from Afghanistan. Despite that support, blame for the chaos following the withdrawal will be laid at Biden’s feet. See NYTimes, “Analysis: Fairly or unfairly, the final act in the American experiment in Afghanistan falls on President Biden.” It is the unique burden of American presidents to have their legacies defined by wars they did not start or end. Joe Biden can’t escape the responsibility for the chaotic ending of the conflict in Afghanistan—nor should he attempt to do so.

          If there were errors in executing the withdrawal that were caused by undue pressure on military commanders, Biden must own those errors. But the decision to withdraw was the right one, just as the decision to attack Al-Qaeda in its safe havens was the correct one. We will never know whether delaying another six months would have made any difference. In the end, the sudden collapse was precipitated by mass defections among Afghan military that have been occurring over the year at the local level. See WaPo, “Afghanistan’s military collapse: Illicit deals with Taliban and mass desertions.” For those who criticize Biden’s decision to withdraw, a fair question is, “Compared to what?”

          I don’t intend to make excuses for the execution of the withdrawal, but we should also recognize that Biden acted to prevent further loss of life among U.S. military personnel in a conflict that did not appear to have any prospect of a successful conclusion. Biden made a difficult decision and appears ready to defend it in the face criticism—fair and unfair. See WaPo, “Defiant and defensive, a president known for empathy takes a cold-eyed approach to Afghanistan debacle.”

          Most importantly, we cannot lose sight of the fact that hundreds of thousands of American men and women responded to the call of duty after the 9/11 terrorist attacks. Thousands lost their lives, thousands more suffer from permanent physical and psychological injuries. Their patriotism is undiminished by the current situation in Afghanistan. Indeed, America has been safer over their last two decades because they responded to the call of duty. The worst outcome of the sudden collapse of the Afghan government would be to lose sight of the sacrifice of the men and women who volunteered to protect us. We cannot let that happen, come what may in Afghanistan.

PostCardsToVoters campaign – “NO” on recall of Gavin Newsom

In Friday’s newsletter, I asked for input from readers involved in PostCardsToVoters about that organization’s efforts to stop the recall of California Governor Gavin Newsom. I heard from many readers, including “Tony the Democrat,” who wrote the following:

Yes! PostCardsToVoters is running a campaign to oppose the recall of Gavin Newsom. It is really easy to sign up by texting the word JOIN to (484) 275-2229 or by emailing Join@TonyTheDemocrat.org

If you want to help your friends and readers save one round-trip email during the sign-up process and save a few hours of waiting time, invite them to include a photo of a sample handwritten postcard using the following message items when they first email us.  That way, they can be approved more quickly.

These exact message items must be written by hand on each of your cards:

         You decide: will Newsom stay or go?
         On the Republican Recall, please vote No.
         Watch your mail and return your ballot by September 14.

Once approved, they will be given addresses and additional message items which are optional that they may pick and choose to round out the postcards depending on the size of their handwriting and how much space they have after writing the three required message items.

           PostCardsToVoters is a great organization. Many readers have participated in PCTV campaigns and have reported that it is both satisfying and inspiring. The recall campaign of Gavin Newsom may have national implications for control of the Senate and appointment of Supreme Court justices. Help if you can!

           As a postscript to the Gavin Newsom story, a reader sent a link to an op-ed in the NYTimes by Erwin Chemerinsky and Aaron S. Edlin. They argue (persuasively) that the recall process in California is unconstitutional. See “Opinion | California's Impending Recall Election Is Unconstitutional - The New York Times.”

The pandemic.

          The “mask mandate” battles are making their way through the courts. The Texas Supreme Court predictably upheld Governor Abbott’s ban of mask mandates in schools. Meanwhile, the Director of the National Institutes of Health warned that he sees no sign that the Delta variant infections are peaking. See Politico, “NIH director sees 'no signs' of a Delta peak.” Francis Collins said on a Fox News show on Sunday, “90 million people are still unvaccinated. [They] are sitting ducks for this virus.”

         America is in a maddening state of confusion and suspense. When in doubt, where a mask. Others are looking for signals. Give them one.

Concluding Thoughts.

Any discussion of the situation in Afghanistan should recognize that hundreds of thousands of Afghan citizens were reliable allies and friends of U.S. troops. They put their lives in danger—and are now facing devastating consequences. The “mass defections” referred to above may also be viewed as surrender in the face of certain defeat—a last ditch effort to protect their families in local villages beyond the protection of US troops or the Afghan army.

          Josh Marshall of Talking Points Memo has offered a strong defense of Joe Biden’s decision and timing of withdrawal from Afghanistan. Josh Marshall is a smart guy and one of my “go to” sources. See Josh Marshall in TPM, “After Sunday It’s Even More Clear Biden Was Right.” Marshall concludes, “Someone had to make the decision that Bush, Obama and Trump did not and apparently could not. Biden did.”

          For the second time in little more than a decade, Haiti has suffered an earthquake of magnitude 7.0+. Trump responded to the ongoing chaos and corruption in Haiti by maligning its people. The Biden administration has said that it will support the people of Haiti through USAID. Americans will undoubtedly make private donations. If you are leading such an effort, let me know.

          Thanks to the many readers who sent personal notes regarding our 40th wedding anniversary. After a very quick trip to our mountain cabin over the weekend, we are back home, ready to start on the next 40 years!

          Talk to you tomorrow!