Today’s Edition: After action review.

August 18, 2021

          On Tuesday, the chaotic evacuation efforts continued in Afghanistan as the media and politicians of both parties sought to assign blame to Biden for the debacle. The NYTimes published a front-page headline suggesting that Biden disregarded intelligence reports of the imminent collapse of the Afghan army and misled Americans about the facts on the ground. See NYTimes, “Intelligence Warned of Afghanistan Military Collapse, Despite Biden’s Assurances.”  The Times’ story deserves to be read carefully and in full because it will be the centerpiece of debates for years to come. The article is well-sourced, though most of the sources are anonymous. It raises the central question of whether the chaotic exit from Afghanistan was an intelligence failure—a proposition that must be true in some measure. The article provides fair and nuanced reporting on the issue (despite the lack of nuance in the headline.)

          Overall, the article describes a situation in which the intelligence assessments changed between the time the decision was made to withdraw and when the withdrawal occurred. For example, the article contrasts intelligence reports in July with those available in April:

          Classified assessments by American spy agencies over the summer [in July] painted an increasingly grim picture of the prospect of a Taliban takeover of Afghanistan and warned of the rapid collapse of the Afghan military.

          But key American decisions were made long before July, when the consensus among intelligence agencies was that the Afghan government could hang on for as long as two years, which would have left ample time for an orderly exit. . . . As late as a week before Kabul’s fall, the overall intelligence analysis was that a Taliban takeover was not yet inevitable . . . .

          I suspect, though do not know, that the difference in emphasis in the above statements reflects a struggle between competing leaks from the intelligence community and the administration. Both of the above statements could be true; the question is which statement will become Biden’s legacy. To the extent that they NYTimes puts a thumb on the scale, the authors imply that Biden is at fault:

          The drumbeat of warnings over the summer raise questions about why Biden administration officials, and military planners in Afghanistan, seemed ill-prepared to deal with the Taliban’s final push into Kabul, including a failure to ensure security at the main airport and rushing thousands more troops back to the country to protect the United States’ final exit.

          The story in the Times appears to highlight a disconnect between the narrative in the mainstream media and what most Americans believe. This phenomenon is discussed by Josh Marshall in Talking Points Memo. Marshall notes that “after 48 hours or relentlessly negative press coverage,” support for Biden’s withdrawal still had a net +12% margin. Important policy decisions should not be made by popularity contests, and Biden rejected that measure of success in ordering a complete withdrawal. But as Marshall notes, public support for the withdrawal “even at such a bleak moment is surely a relevant part of the story.” It is also relevant to worried readers who have sent emails suggesting that the chaotic withdrawal is the end of Biden’s presidency. I don’t think it is, nor do most Americans.

          Whatever the true facts, they are far more complicated than we know at the moment. The tendency to focus on the last 72 hours is understandable, but will undoubtedly lead to erroneous or incomplete conclusions. For example, it is true that in the seven months of the Biden administration, neither the Pentagon nor the State Department made arrangements necessary to extract Afghans who served as interpreters for the U.S. military. It is also true that in the twelve months between Trump’s announcement of the complete withdrawal and the end of his presidency, neither the Pentagon nor the State Department made arrangements necessary to extract the interpreters. And, yet, if you focus only on the last 72 hours, Biden is solely at fault. See Politico, “‘They were sitting on their hands’: Insiders say Biden’s team wasted precious time on evacuating Afghans.”

          I wrote yesterday that understanding what happened will be hampered by approaching that exercise by asking the question, “Who’s to blame?” A reader informed me that the military has a process known as an “After Action Review” that seeks to learn from mistakes to improve performance rather than assign blame. That is what needs to happen here, with an open mind and a perspective broader than the last 72 hours. Several readers criticized me for being a “Biden apologist” or for not being as harsh on Biden as I have been on Merrick Garland. If Biden made mistakes, he should be held accountable. But whether and to what extent Biden is responsible is not knowable based on scenes of chaos in Kabul. Those scenes are relevant, to be sure, but they are not determinative of who bears responsibility. Most importantly, Biden said yesterday, “The buck stops here.” Biden isn’t seeking to avoid responsibility and doesn’t need apologists—a rarity among presidents.

Anti-mask Governor Greg Abbott tests positive for Covid after 3 vaccinations

          The nation’s leading anti-mask governor, Greg Abbott, announced on Tuesday that he has tested positive for Covid—a breakthrough infection for a man who has received three Covid vaccinations. Abbott is being treated with Regeneron’s monoclonal antibody treatment. Abbott tweeted on Tuesday that his multiple vaccinations “may be one reason why I’m really not feeling any symptoms right now; I have no fever, no aches and pains, no other types of symptoms.”

          Abbott is the same guy who wants to prohibit schools from requiring masks for unvaccinated students. Abbott is endangering the lives of Texas students, but his personal brush with Covid will not stir his conscience or sense of humanity. “Have you no sense of decency, sir, at long last?”

          Meanwhile, Florida’s Governor DeSantis tried to “out-Trump” Governor Abbott by threatening to investigate and punish Florida school districts that defy DeSantis’s ban on face mask mandates. See WaPo, “Schools in Florida’s Broward and Alachua counties may be punished because of mask mandates.” Florida’s actions come at a time when breakthrough infections from the Delta variant are increasing—fueled by low rates of vaccination in GOP-controlled states. A recent study indicates that vaccination still provides a strong protective benefit against serious illness and death. In California, for example,

          data affirm that vaccinated people are far less likely to become severely ill or to die from Covid-19. In California, for example, the 1,615 hospitalizations of people with breakthrough infections as of Aug. 8 represents just 0.007 percent of nearly 22 million fully immunized residents, and breakthrough deaths an even smaller percentage.

          Which brings us back to Governor Abbott. Not only does he oppose mask mandates, but the man who has received three vaccinations also opposes vaccine mandates—and has prohibited them in Texas by executive order. NYTimes, “Texas Governor Bars Mask and Vaccination Mandates.” “Have you no sense of decency, sir, at long last?”

Helping in Haiti and Afghanistan.

          A reader sent a note about an organization that is working to help Afghan refugees settle in the U.S. The Lutheran Immigration and Refugee Service (“LIRS”) has been in existence for 80 years and is actively seeking volunteers to help resettle Afghan refugees in the U.S. See Help Our Afghan Allies | LIRS. Activities mentioned include “helping with services like airport pick-ups, apartment set-ups, meals” and generally making our Afghan allies feel welcomed in the U.S. As always, donations also help. If you are willing to help welcome Afghan refugees to your community, check out LIRS.

          A reader recommended Visitation Hospital in Haiti, which is located twenty miles from the epicenter of the earthquake and is overwhelmed with patients and desperate for support.

          Finally, World Central Kitchen is on the ground in Haiti providing fresh meals and water to people in need.

Concluding Thoughts.

I received more mail on the issue of Afghanistan than on any other issue this year (and that includes the Capitol insurrection). About 90% of those who responded strongly support Biden despite the chaotic exit. The other 10% who responded support the decision to withdraw but are deeply disappointed and angry over the way the withdrawal unfolded. Most everyone who expressed disappointment mentioned the failure to extract allies and interpreters before withdrawing our troops. Biden addressed this issue in his speech on Monday. If you, too, are concerned about this issue, I recommend reading Biden’s statement on this issue. I will let him speak for himself. He needs no apologists.

          Once again, however, the most powerful emails were from parents of soldiers in Afghanistan and from veterans of the Afghanistan war. I learned more from those emails than from the dozens of articles I have read on the subject of the withdrawal. If you have the chance to talk about the war and its chaotic unwinding with a veteran or parent of a veteran, I highly recommend it. First, you will be impressed by the sense of duty that motivated the men and women who volunteered to protect us. Second, you will hear spin-free reactions of people who witnessed the war first-hand. I don’t know how your conversations will unfold, but my correspondence with parents and veterans helped me understand a very difficult chapter in American history.

          Talk to you tomorrow.