Today’s Edition

May 14, 2021

          In a surprise announcement, the CDC revised its guidelines on the use of masks. Fully vaccinated people can stop wearing masks indoors and outdoors—regardless of the vaccination status of others near them. See CDC, “When You’ve Been Fully Vaccinated.” As Biden promised during his campaign, he followed the science in responding to the pandemic. But the political and social ramifications of the announcement were momentous. After nearly 15 months of lockdowns, social distancing, and masks, fully vaccinated people can return to their normal activities without masking or social distancing. The policy has the benefit of incentivizing unvaccinated people to get vaccinated, ASAP. See NYTimes, “A milestone in the pandemic, and an incentive to vaccinate.” Moreover, removing the mask guidance communicates confidence in the Covid vaccines. As one epidemiologist said, “either you trust the vaccine, or you do not.” The CDC trusts the vaccine.

          We would not have arrived at this moment but for the fact that 120 million Americans have been fully vaccinated. That accomplishment is due in large part to Joe Biden’s leadership. Biden could have turned his press conference into a victory lap. He did not. Instead, in pitch-perfect comments, Biden asked for understanding and promised mercy. He asked Americans to treat one another with kindness and charity, attempting to de-escalate the political divisiveness over masks. Referring to those who still wear masks, Biden said,

          Please treat them with kindness and respect. We’ve had too much conflict, too much bitterness, too much anger, too much politicization of this issue about wearing masks.

          And as to those who seek to cheat by using the change in guidance to avoid both vaccination and masks, Biden said, “It’s not an enforcement thing, we are not going to arrest people.”

          Oddly, the reaction of most vaccinated people was to freak out. The CDC was so successful in educating Americans on the protective benefits of masks that many people will feel “strange” and “weird” not wearing a mask in public. The sudden change in guidance surprised epidemiologists, so it is understandable that ordinary citizens will need time to adjust. See NYTimes, “Hundreds of Epidemiologists Expected Mask-Wearing in Public for at Least a Year.” Despite the skepticism, representatives of the CDC were steadfast in their guidance: If you have been vaccinated, you have a low risk of becoming infected; if you become infected, you have a low risk of becoming seriously ill; if you become infected, you have a low risk of transmitting the virus; therefore, you don’t need to wear a mask if you have been fully vaccinated. See the CDC guidance, linked here. To those who are fully vaccinated, the change in guidance may feel like the end of the pandemic. It is not, but it is a milestone in the path to recovery. See The Atlantic, “Is This the End?” (“So, no, the pandemic isn’t over, but the significance of the CDC’s shift was unmistakable.”)

          For the families of the 580,000 Americans who lost their lives to the pandemic, there is no returning to “normal.” Nor will it be easy to undo the damage that the politicization of the pandemic inflicted on the reputation of the CDC or the public’s trust in medicine. Indeed, shortly before the CDC guidance was changed, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis announced that he would pardon Floridians who were prosecuted for violating Covid rules. See NYPost, “Ron DeSantis to pardon anyone charged for defying COVID rules.” In doing so, DeSantis will make it more difficult to convince the public to comply with future health measures designed to stop pandemics and preventable childhood diseases.

          The debates will not end with the CDC’s new guidance. Immediately after the announcement, public health officials and media commentators began suggesting that we should demand “proof of vaccination” to allow people to appear in public maskless. See op-ed by Leana S. Wen in WaPo, “The CDC shouldn’t have removed restrictions without requiring proof of vaccination.” Whatever the merits of such arguments, the Biden administration has been adamant that the federal government will not require “Covid passports.” Private employers and schools can require vaccinations (with limited exceptions), but the federal government won’t be involved in those efforts.

          The debate over whether and when to wear masks will continue unabated. The most important thing you can do is to get vaccinated and protect those around you who cannot be vaccinated (e.g., young children and immune-compromised people). Otherwise, don’t waste a lot of energy worrying about those who will cheat on the vaccine/mask guidance. If you are protected, that will go a long way to allowing you to return to pre-pandemic life while protecting those around you.

My early warning statement on polling.

          In the run-up to the 2018 and 2020 elections, I repeatedly urged readers not to conflate polls with destiny—especially when those polls are taken far in advance of the election. We should not give undue weight to a single poll; the most important aspect of polling is the trend over time. It is challenging to conduct a high-quality poll in an age when voters are ever more difficult to reach despite proliferating communication methods.  Moreover, polls are like catnip to journalists: Every new poll can be fit into a template for an article along the following pattern: The leading candidate (or party) is up (or down) in the poll despite expectations that the candidate (or party) would be down (or up) in the poll. See how easy it is to write that story?

          Polls are already appearing for 2022. Needless to say, a lot can happen between now and November 2022, so it is a teensy bit premature to believe those polls are predictive of what will happen nineteen months in the future. For example, in the last four-and-half months alone, we experienced (1) an insurrection, (2) the first-ever second impeachment of a president, (3) the vaccination of 120 million Americans, and (4) two votes on whether to remove Liz Cheney from GOP leadership, one that failed by an overwhelming margin and one that succeeded by near-unanimous consent.  

          Polls are not destiny. We control our destiny, not the pollsters. Let’s not forget that fact.

Update on S.1 Voting Rights Bill

Despite her support for the filibuster, Senator Kyrsten Sinema is a co-sponsor of S.1, the omnibus voting rights bill in the Senate. In a Democratic caucus meeting yesterday, Senator Sinema asked Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, “How are Democrats going to pass their election reform bill?” See Politico, “Sinema to Senate Dems: What's the plan on voting rights?” As I noted earlier in the week, I hope Senator Schumer has a plan for passing S.1 given Senator Manchin’s opposition to eliminating the filibuster. Senator Bob Casey (D. Pa) told a reporter that

          This has to go to the floor at some point . . . . At some point everyone should be on the record on this bill.

          As I interpret Senator Casey’s comment, the implied qualification is “When the bill goes down to defeat on the floor, everyone should be on record.” Not much of a plan. The better plan is to hold control of the House and expand control of the Senate in 2022 so we don’t have to negotiate with Senator Manchin.

          Speaking of Senator Manchin, he has maintained a single-minded focus on bipartisanship. This week he made a good suggestion about amending the Voting Rights Act. You will recall that Chief Justice Roberts struck down the “preclearance” provision of the statute that required states with histories of discrimination to obtain preclearance from the Justice Department before changing voting laws. Manchin suggested that instead of trying to reauthorize the preclearance requirement only for states with a history of discrimination, Congress should apply the preclearance requirement to all 50 states. I think that is a good idea. But Republican Senator John Cornyn pronounced the idea “as dead on arrival.” See Talking Points Memo, “Manchin Compromise Idea For Voting Rights Gets A Shot Across the Bow From Cornyn.” Let’s hope that this experience is clarifying and sobering for Senator Manchin. It is easy to promote bipartisanship until you have to come up with a deal that will garner support from both sides of the aisle.

Concluding Thoughts.

As we approach the weekend, we should seek respite and renewal—especially given the new guidance on masks. I received several emails over the last week from readers who found some editions of the newsletter to be discouraging or anxiety producing. To be clear, readers were reacting to the news I was discussing, not criticizing the newsletter. But, in truth, their comments concern me because my purpose in writing the newsletter is to discuss the news through the lens of hope. So, let me address the issue head-on: Much of the news is bad, but more of the news is good. But all things being equal, the media will cover and amplify the bad news over good news. Why? I don’t know, but I suspect that the urge to communicate bad news is hard-wired in our genes by millions of years of evolutionary pressure to avoid catastrophe.

          To avoid this trap, we must recognize the media bias towards bad news, and we must maintain perspective. About 98% of what was reported on MSNBC on Thursday will be irrelevant and forgotten in a year. The difficult part is focusing on the facts that matter amidst a barrage of facts that don’t matter. To do that, try to control the pace and timing of your news consumption. Almost all news can wait; there is no need to constantly refresh the newsfeed on your phone or Facebook or Twitter. Relax this weekend and enjoy the first halting steps towards pre-pandemic normalcy.

          Talk to you on Monday! Enjoy the weekend!