Time to declare where we stand.
January 3, 2024
Tuesday was a slower-than-normal news day, so I will follow form and send a shorter-than-usual newsletter. “Short” is not the same thing as “unimportant,” so let’s take a look at stories that may have a significant impact on Democratic prospects in the coming year.
GOP margin in the House shrinks to two votes.
Republicans won a narrow margin of control in the House in the 2022 midterms—when the much-hyped “red wave” failed to materialize. The GOP’s original 222-seat majority has been shrinking through resignations and expulsions. On Tuesday, Republican Bill Johnson announced he would resign effective January 21 to become president of Youngstown University. See GOP’s House Lead Narrows as Yet Another Republican Is Resigning (msn.com)
When Johnson’s resignation becomes effective, Republicans will have 219-213 majority—meaning that they can afford to lose only two votes and still pass legislation. (Losing three votes will result in a 216-216 tie—not enough to pass a bill.)
As I noted yesterday, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene is already “talking trash” about Speaker Mike Johnson ahead of a series of tough votes on the budget in January. Minority leader Hakeem Jeffries may be called upon to serve as the “acting Speaker of the House” if Mike Johnson loses three Republican votes in the next three weeks.
Trump appeals decision of Maine Secretary of State regarding disqualification.
The ruling of the Maine Secretary of State that Trump is disqualified from the Maine primary ballot is appealable to the Maine Superior Court. Trump filed an appeal on Tuesday (in the form of a complaint against the Secretary of State) challenging the ruling. The complaint is here: Trump v. Shenna Bellows | Complaint | AP-24-10.
The complaint is a broadside attack on the authority of the State of Maine and its Secretary of State to enforce the election laws of Maine. As usual, Trump also lobbed a personal attack on the integrity of the Secretary of State, claiming that she was biased against Trump. (Here is a helpful hint for determining when someone is allegedly “biased against Trump”—they don’t give him what he wants.)
Even though Trump's complaint is filled with factual and legal errors, it provides a short and readable summary of Trump's legal arguments regarding disqualification under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment. If you are interested in this topic, check out the complaint, linked above. It highlights arguments we will see before the Supreme Court.
Of note are Trump's arguments that the disqualification bar of Section 3 can be enforced only by Congress or the Electoral College (plainly false) and that enabling legislation is required to enforce the 14th Amendment (also plainly false).
Trump makes one point that is correct—that Section 3 prohibits Trump from holding office—not running for office. But Maine election law prohibits a candidate from running for office if they are not “qualified’ to hold that office. Same result, different route.
D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals orders parties to prepare to argue appealability of Judge Chutkan’s order.
I noted yesterday that American Oversight filed a “friend of the court” brief in the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals arguing that Trump is not permitted to appeal Judge Chutkan’s order denying his motion to dismiss on grounds of presidential immunity. (Oddly, Jack Smith did not raise appealability in his brief.)
On Tuesday, the D.C. Circuit issued an order directing counsel to be prepared at the oral argument on January 9 “to address any inquiries by the Court regarding discrete issues raised in the briefs filed by amicus curiae.”
The arguments by American Oversight have caught the attention of the D.C. appellate panel hearing the appeal. A ruling by the D.C. Circuit that Trump cannot appeal Judge Chutkan’s order would likely ensure a trial in 2024.
Trump's election expert regarding fraud says there was no fraud in 2020 election.
Trump continues to claim that the 2020 election was “rigged.” Why does this matter? Because he is already making claims that the 2024 election will be “rigged.” See The Independent, Trump lays ground for 2024 election fraud claims with New Years screed.
On Tuesday, the expert Trump hired in 2020 to find fraud penned an op-ed saying that there was no fraud in the 2020 election. See Ken Block op-ed in USA Today, Trump paid me to find voter fraud. Then he lied after I found 2020 election wasn't stolen.
Block writes,
[My research] found no evidence of voter fraud sufficient to change the outcome of any election. That message was communicated directly to White House chief of staff Mark Meadows. . . . [C]laims of voter fraud made by others were verified as false, including proof of why those claims were disproven.
And yet, the cries that the election was lost or stolen due to voter fraud continue with no sign of stopping. . . .
If Jack Smith is doing his job, Trump's 2020 election fraud expert will be a witness against Trump in the election interference trial before Judge Chutkan. Good!
Israel to defend claim of genocide filed by South Africa in International Court of Justice.
The country of South Africa has filed a claim against Israel in the International Court of Justice alleging Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza is “genocidal in character.” South Africa and Israel are both signatories to the charter of the ICJ. Israel will appear in the proceedings to defend itself against the charges. Although such proceedings typically take years to resolve, South Africa is asking for an interim order for a cease fire. See HuffPost, Israel Prepares To Defend Itself Against Genocide Claims.
Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals invalidates Biden administration guidance regarding emergency care at federally-funded hospitals.
In the face of Texas’s law that prohibits abortions “unless the pregnancy ‘places the female at risk of death or poses a serious risk of substantial impairment,” the Biden administration issued guidance for federally-funded hospitals. That guidance clarified that physicians were required to render emergency assistance necessary to “stabilize” a female patient. Such stabilization treatment could include an abortion, if necessary.
A three-judge panel of the Fifth Circuit invalidated the Biden administration’s guidance—effectively prohibiting treatment necessary to stabilize a female patient experiencing a medical emergency.
The legal analysis is complicated—but has been intentionally mangled by the Fifth Circuit panel (and, yes, the panel was composed of three Republican judges). Chris Geidner provides an excellent summary of the Fifth Circuit’s decision in his Substack blog, Law Dork, Fifth Circuit holds that federal ER law doesn't protect abortion care.
Texas and the reactionary Fifth Circuit have conspired to deny women medical treatment to stabilize them during medical emergencies. We cannot forget their subjugation of women when the time comes to elect our representatives in Congress and state legislatures in 2024.
Concluding Thoughts.
We need to stop pretending that “reasonable” Republicans (or independents) can support Trump. Supporting Trump is wrong and dangerous—no matter how much one “cares” about the alleged “immigration crisis” at the border, Biden’s age, or tax rates. After I linked to a list of Biden’s accomplishments in yesterday’s newsletter, a reader wrote to say that his “reasonable” conservative friends viewed the list of accomplishments as reasons to vote against Biden.
I told the reader he should get a new group of friends. Supporting Trump means supporting someone who attempted a coup, incited an insurrection, denied women their reproductive liberty, instituted a policy of state-sanctioned discrimination against Muslims, promised to use the presidency for political “retribution,” has been found by a federal judge to have committed rape, bragged about grabbing women by the genitals, mocked a reporter with a disability, threatened to pull out of NATO, retained national security documents after he left office, associates with white supremacists—and more.
There is no moral ambiguity in the decision to support Trump—or its equivalent—failing to support Biden. We stand at a unique moment in American history—when a candidate for president admits he intends to be a dictator if he is elected. Anyone who supports Trump after that confession is abandoning democracy, decency, and the American people.
It is time to declare where we stand—for or against democracy. There is no room for hesitation, doubt, false equivalencies, whataboutism, lack of enthusiasm, disagreement, disappointment, anger, or wishful thinking. And once we declare where we stand, our task is clear. We must work tirelessly to elect Joe Biden.
Talk to you tomorrow!
I declare where I stand every time I go grocery shopping.
I keep a Biden shirt next to my reusable grocery bags and wear it on every grocery run.
I’m in Florida. I chose this route to rally for Biden because grocery stores feel safe, well lit, family friendly and it is where people face each other traveling opposite directions every day.
When I first googled “Biden Shirt” to find one to buy, almost EVERY link led to ANTI-Biden shirts. The algorithm was concerning and motivating.
I finally found an Etsy shop called “Beantown Strong”that sold not only pro-Biden shirts... but red “Republicans for Biden” shirts.
Beyond a New Year’s resolution to wear my Biden shirt, I’ve made it my mission to make my solo Biden Grocery Rally a “thing.”
Imagine the random thrill of grocery shopping, exchanging knowing glances with others in Biden gear. Imagine how it could snowball to become a sign of the strength of Democracy.
Or imagine the fellow Democrat in your red state (or simply in despair) who suddenly feels hope as Biden T-Shirt Grocery Shoppers make them feel less alone.
That’s why I do it. And I do it because it feels like doing SOMETHING.
There are no "reasonable" or "moderate" or "good" Republicans left. The people those labels described have left the collection of treasonous Confederate scum masquerading as "Republicans." Forget reasoning with them. Go out and convince the people who don't vote to realize the free ride is over.