Thirty days out: Victory is within in the margin of effort.

October 7, 2024

As MAGA-verse ramps up their disinformation campaigns, it is more important than ever that we keep our eye on the prize: Driving voter turnout. Do not let polls paid for by campaigns discourage you; do not spend time chasing down rabbit holes of disinformation about FEMA recovery efforts; do not waste time fighting lies about the economy or job numbers with MAGA cultists who will not change their minds in the face of incontrovertible proof.

There are more than enough Democratic and Democratic-leaning Independents for Kamala Harris and Democrats to win up and down the ballot in 2024. Our job is to get them to the polls. The election will be close, but victory is within “the margin of effort.” We must leave nothing on the field of battle. It has been a long and challenging campaign, but we are within sight of victory. Do not relent!

Here is some good news to inspire you: Over the weekend, more than 200 readers of Today’s Edition and Chop Wood Carry Water signed up to phonebank and canvass in Mecklenburg County, North Carolina. It is not too late to volunteer! Volunteer for MeckDems.

Jill and I plan to be in Mecklenburg County for the final five days before the election, knocking on doors and making calls. Join us—or help in any way you can to get voters to the polls.

Readers of Today’s Edition and Chop Wood Carry Water also contributed over $200,000 to help fund the ground operations in Mecklenburg County—an amount that the Democratic Chair in the county described as “transformational.” Thanks to all for your incredible response!

Readers have noted in the Comments section that they have “maxed out” or exceeded their campaign contribution budget. If that’s you, thank you for going to the limit and please be responsible to yourself and your family going forward. If you have the resources to give more, please be generous. But almost everyone can give more of their time and effort.

The polls continue to show a close race. So Republicans are stepping up their efforts to flood the zone with misleading polls that attribute an illusory advantage to Trump. Over the weekend, the Trump campaign announced an “internal”, unverifiable poll that had him leading in Arizona. Of course, candidates rely on internal polling when public polls that are subject to scrutiny show bad news.

Why are GOP pollsters resorting to disinformation? Because they know that polls affect perceptions and perceptions affect effort and enthusiasm. And to be clear, you are the target of MAGA disinformation. Republicans see the wave of enthusiasm and are trying everything they can to tamp it down.

Do not let them succeed; do not fall victim to disinformation. In the next thirty days, the one thing you can control is your effort—even if your anxiety level is beyond your control. Do. Act. Write. Call. Knock.

Thirty days out, victory is within the margin of effort!

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Kamala Harris media blitz over the next four days

Over the weekend, Vice President Kamala Harris appeared on a popular youth-oriented podcast, “Call Her Daddy.” (Not in my podcast feed, but it has about 5 million listeners!) In the next four days, she will appear on CBS 60 Minutes, The View, Howard Stern, and The Stephen Colbert Show—with combined audiences of tens of millions of viewers.

Trump plans his own media blitz this week, calling into Fox & Friends every morning until they hang up on him, saying, “Mr. President, we really need to cut to a commercial . . . .” And when they do hang up on Trump, he will still be rambling about [insert random subject here].

The major media players are still upset with Kamala Harris that she refuses to play by their rules. On Sunday, Andrea Mitchell complained that Kamala Harris needs to do more sit-down interviews with broadcast networks to win over “businessmen” and “men.”

Andrea Mitchell said,

I think that there's misogynation in all of this, Black and White men, [it's a] big problem. But also the business world. They don't think she is serious. They don't think she's a heavyweight. And a lot of this is gender, but she's got to be more specific about her economic plans. I think they've got to double down on doing more interviews and serious interviews.

Newsflash for Andrea Mitchell: the reason “businessmen” favor Trump comes down to a single factor: his promise to extend the 2017 tax cuts, which will increase the deficit by $4 trillion over the succeeding ten years. No amount of bowing and scraping to the ossified major media will change that economic incentive that has caused “businessmen” to prioritize profits over democracy.

And shame on Andrea Mitchell for repeating the right-wing talking point that Kamala Harris hasn’t been “specific” about her economic plans. She has been far more specific than Trump. And, truth be told, 0.0001% of voters actually read the economic plans published by candidates. Instead, they use “specificity” as an excuse for their decision to cast a vote having nothing to do with economic policy.

But I digress. Kamala Harris is meeting voters where they are: Listening to The View and Howard Stern and Stephen Colbert—not watching Meet the Press on Sunday morning (with about a half a million viewers in the 25 to 54-year-old cohort, where Trump dominates among men).

Andrea Mitchell is wrong about Kamala Harris’s alleged “problem” with the press and business viewing her as “not being a heavyweight.” She does not need to do more “serious” interviews. Instead, the media must speak the truth about whether Trump is a “heavyweight” and a “serious” candidate and a “threat to democracy.”

If the press focused on the important and consequential issue of Trump's dangerous mental incapacity and hate management problem, they would be doing the bare minimum expected of a responsible press. But the dam may be breaking. Read on!

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The NYTimes addresses Trump's increasing incoherence and frailty

After giving Trump a “free pass” for most of the 2024 presidential campaign, the NYTimes is starting to sharpen its coverage of Trump. On Sunday evening, it published a top-of-the-fold lengthy analysis of Trump's increasing incoherence and frailty on the campaign trail. The only thing the Times failed to do was use the word “lie” to describe Trump's statements. Instead, it described his statements as “fantastical” and “outlandish” and “without regard for the truth.” Still, it’s progress. See NYTimes, Trump’s Speeches, Increasingly Angry and Rambling, Reignite the Question of Age. (Accessible to all.)

The subheader on the article is “With the passage of time, the 78-year-old former president’s speeches have grown darker, harsher, longer, angrier, less focused, more profane and increasingly fixated on the past, according to a review of his public appearances over the years.”

You should read the entire article for yourself, but here is a flavor:

He rambles, he repeats himself, he roams from thought to thought — some of them hard to understand, some of them unfinished, some of them factually fantastical. He voices outlandish claims that seem to be made up out of whole cloth. He digresses into bizarre tangents about golf, about sharks, about his own “beautiful” body. He relishes “a great day in Louisiana” after spending the day in Georgia. He expresses fear that North Korea is “trying to kill me” when he presumably means Iran. [¶¶]

A week after the debate, Trump falsely claimed that the audience was enthusiastic—but there was no audience. The Times commented,

And it was hardly the only time Mr. Trump has seemed confused, forgetful, incoherent or disconnected from reality lately. In fact, it happens so often these days that it no longer even generates much attention.

The Times also performed a linguistic analysis of Trump's speech patterns and found that he speaks at the level of a fourth-grade student:

The Times analysis found that Mr. Trump speaks at a fourth-grade level, lower than rivals like Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, who speaks at an eighth-grade level, which is roughly average for modern presidents.

But in a patent example of both siderism, the Times ran a parallel story about how frequently the candidates made statements that were false, exaggerated, or needed context. Let’s start with the obvious: Trump attempted a coup, incited an insurrection, has promised to be dictator, has said he will terminate some provisions of the Constitution, has threatened to use the DOJ as a personal political hit squad, has threatened criminal charges against the media (Google) for returning negative stories about Trump in response to searches, has been found civilly responsible for sexual assault, has been indicted for retaining national defense secrets, has been indicted for election interference, and has been convicted for violating New York’s election laws.

With that baseline, saying, “Let’s fact-check the respective statements of the candidates” presupposes that Trump and Harris exist in the same political universe. They do not. The New York Times's inability to come to terms with this fact highlights the press's failure to deal with Trump's unique criminality, corruption, and incipient fascism.

Even still, the NYTimes found that in comparing two campaign speeches, Trump made 23 false statements, 6 that lack evidence, 15 that were misleading, 16 that were exaggerated, and 4 that needed context. For Kamala Harris, the Times concluded the VP made 1 false statement (“He tried to stop the ACA 60 times), 1 misleading statement (“He intends to cut Social Security and Medicare”), 1 exaggerated statement, and 4 statements that need context. See NYTimes, Fact-Checking Trump and Harris Stump Speeches. (Behind a paywall.)

Frankly, the Times had to stretch to find fault with Kamala Harris’s statements. It is a fair inference that Trump intends to cut Social Security and Medicare—as demonstrated by his recent unguarded statement that he would cut “entitlements” if reelected. See CNN, 3/11/2024, Trump suggests he’s open to cuts to Medicare and Social Security after attacking primary rivals over the issue. He walked back that statement after an outpouring of outrage, but the questions is simply “Which of Trump's statements do you choose to believe?” When talking about Trump's “intent,” it is fair to rely on his statement to the press that he planned to cut entitlements.

So, while the NYT deserves mild acknowledgment for finally saying that Trump is showing clear signs of mental deterioration, its inability to say that Trump “lies” and its insistence on making false equivalencies continues to mar its coverage. It still has thirty days to redeem itself—but no one should hold their breath.

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Opportunities for Reader Engagement

Reader meeting in DC on Friday, October 10, mid-day at a location to be determined.

My wife and I plan to make a quick trip to Washington, D.C. this coming weekend. We are looking for a venue to hold a reader meeting mid-day on Friday, October 11 with about three dozen readers. Fill out this sign up sheet to reserve a spot for the meeting and volunteer a space. I can’t guarantee that everyone who wants to attend can be accommodated, but we will do our best. Time and actual location will be communicated by email on Wednesday.

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Grandparents for Democracy Webinar—The Conversation—How to talk to young people about voting

Monday, 10/7, 11:30am-1pm PDT (2:30pm-4pm ET) Virtual Event

Worried that the young people in your life won’t vote? Learn how to jump-start their voting experience! This webinar and accompanying materials will show you how to: Better understand young people’s feelings about voting; Engage young people on the subject of voting; Persuade even die-hard non-voters to register and vote; Answer questions about voting; Access your state’s online registration and mail-in ballot platforms.

This webinar includes a superb 14-minute film, The Conversation, directed by an award-winning filmmaker, and scored by a Grammy Award winning composer. While the presentation focuses on grandparents, it will be equally helpful to parents. 

REGISTER HERE for the October 7th, 11:30am-1pm PT/ 2:30pm-4pm ET Virtual Event. 

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Concluding Thoughts

The level of disinformation about the federal emergency response to Hurricane Helene has reached dangerous levels of criminal negligence. Prominent posters on Twitter are promoting the falsehood that there is a federal “blockade” of private relief efforts. Posters on Twitter are urging the formation of private militias to “bust through” the non-existent federal blockade.

Someone is going to get hurt—all because American businesses continue to treat Trump and Musk as harmless kooks who don’t mean the things they are saying. They keep making those dangerous statements because there is no financial or social cost to Trump and Musk. Billionaires and business leaders continue to host lavish fundraisers despite the grotesque, racist, dangerous lies they are spreading about the emergency relief efforts and immigrants in the US.

Media must play a role here. They must identify the lies and explain why they are lies. For example, a current premise for the “federal blockade” is that the FAA is controlling private flights over disaster-stricken areas—so that emergency medical and rescue flights have priority. And the presence of small, consumer drones utilized by self-help militias and recovery teams poses a severe danger to aircraft. (Whenever there is a fire in California, the authorities warn that the use of private drones forces the grounding of firefighting aircraft, saying, “If you fly, we can’t.”) But even here, the FAA and FEMA have made an exception for private drone operators who are coordinating with state and federal officials.

Trump, Musk, and others are distorting federal efforts to keep the skies safe as a “blockade.”

You can be part of the solution by telling friends about the rumor control website, FEMA.gov, Hurricane Helene: Rumor Response. Or sign up for FEMA’s regular updates, here: FEMA’s Daily Operations Update newsletter.

It is a tragedy that amid an ongoing disaster recovery and presidential campaign one candidate would spread lies about the recovery to advance his political interests. That fact highlights the stark choice we face in November and the urgency of our task.

The good news is that Republicans are panicking and resorting to disinformation to conceal their faltering campaign. We can’t rely on Republicans to defeat themselves, but we sure as heck shouldn’t fall for their lies about the state of the campaign. We have every reason to be hopeful but no reason to be complacement.

Talk to you tomorrow!

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Daily Dose of Perspective.

Below is my first image of the Orion Nebula. There is nothing else to say other than “It is a thing of beauty.”