Thinking about the verdict.

June 1, 2024

With the benefit of twenty-four hours’ reflection, nervous Democrats and excitable media have invented endless grounds for converting a resounding victory for the rule of law into a new source of anxiety and confusion. Legal experts are analyzing prospects on appeal and political strategists are arguing over how vigorously President Biden should lean into the convictions as a campaign issue.

Here's my advice: Don’t overthink it.

The verdicts were a singular outcome for justice, the rule of law, and the democratic political process. Accept that gift and move forward.

Should Democrats use Trump's criminal convictions for partisan advantage? Of course!

What is the maximal strategy? We will have a clear answer to that question in several decades—after historians have ventilated the results of the 2024 election with the luxury of hindsight.  

For us, the verdict changes nothing about strategy and everything about outlook.

We needed a win. We got the only win that bestowed blazing moral clarity. Good. But the election still comes down to turnout. And turnout depends on relational politics: Person-to-person, door-to-door, phone calls, texts, post cards, house parties, yard signs, letters to the editor, showing up, and speaking out. That was true before the verdicts and is true after.

But we should feel some wind beneath our wings. We should have more spring in our step and more confidence in our approach to undecided voters. Twelve people were put to the test and saw through the lies. Every single one of them. Even the juror who said his major source of news was Truth Social.

If twelve randomly selected citizens can discern the truth “beyond a reasonable doubt” despite the obfuscation and lies of defense counsel, so can tens of millions of persuadable Americans. And in the political arena, we need not convince twelve out of twelve persuadable voters. If we can persuade more than half, Biden will by a landslide.

We should pause for a moment to reflect on how fortunate we are that the verdict was conviction on all counts. The range of possible outcomes were as follows:

1.    Guilty on all counts

2.    Guilty on some but not all counts

3.    Hung jury with 1 or 2 holdout jurors

4.    Hung jury with 3 or more holdout jurors

5.    Acquittal on some counts

6.    Acquittal on all counts

Outcomes 2 through 6 would have resulted in varying degrees of victory dances in the end zone and claims of exoneration by Trump. Only the first outcome—guilty on all counts—communicates with clarity that “Donald Trump is guilty beyond a reasonable doubt and stands for all time as a convicted felon for interfering in the 2016 election.”

The undeniable force of the 34-count guilty conviction leaves Republicans only one option: Attack the justice system, the judge, and the jury. As bad as that feels, it is not a winning strategy for GOP candidates in purple districts and swing states that hinge on independent voters.

The insane response by Republican congressional leaders has been unnerving. But it contains the seeds of the GOP’s destruction. The ugly threats of retaliation are red meat to the base but not a winning strategy for Americans who want a governable country run by a Congress focused on something other than revenge.

Moreover, while we should be outraged and concerned by the comments of GOP congressional leaders, we should not ascribe superpowers to Republicans they do not have. Railing about subpoenas to Judge Merchan and his daughter is one thing. Obtaining an enforceable subpoena is another. And finding evidence of a crime is yet another stretch—as the hapless House Oversight Committee learned in its Hunter Biden investigation and presidential impeachment inquiry of Joe Biden.

Likewise, we should also maintain perspective about media reports about Trump supporters calling for violence. A careful reading of such reports indicates that they are based on single-person interviews on the street or reviews of social media sites that contain “dozens” of such threats. While one threat is too many, a couple of dozen threats on fringe websites must be measured against the hundreds of millions of Americans who use social media on a daily basis. Compare the Reuters’ headline, Trump supporters call for riots and violent retribution after verdict, with the factual basis for the story, “dozens of violent online posts . . . on three Trump-aligned websites.”

To be clear, I am not criticizing those observers and commentators who are thinking through Democratic strategy or appellate prospects. Indeed, I cite some of them below. Thinking through strategy and prospects are necessary exercises and should be performed post haste.

But you should not allow yourself to become consumed or overwhelmed by complex calculations best solved in n-dimensional anti-de Sitter space. Read the articles if they help you navigate this historical moment. Don’t fret about them if they interfere with your ability to shape history by taking action now.

I recommend the following articles for those interested and up to the task of taking a deeper dive.

See two articles by Lucian K. Truscott IV, Trump guilty verdict changes everything, and If you thought my take on the likely effects of the Trump verdict was a little too rosy . . . .

See also Martin London, Marty’s Blog, RIGGING.

See also Vox, The best — and worst — criticisms of Trump’s conviction.

There are a handful of non-frivolous grounds for challenging some of Judge Merchan’s legal rulings. But the criticisms of those rulings mostly come from federal practitioners who are attempting to import federal jurisprudence onto New York’s interpretation of its own law. Whatever the outcome of the appeals process, it will conclude long after the 2024 election.

Until the final judgment is issued after appeals are exhausted—sometime in 2026 or 2027—Donald Trump is a convicted felon. That is a good result, for now. Let’s focus on ensuring that Biden is reelected.

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President Biden urges Israel and Hamas to negotiate peace deal

President Biden gave a speech on Friday in an effort to break a lengthy deadlock between Israel and Hamas in peace negotiations. It was a bold—risky?—move that sought to break the deadlock by forcing the parties to react in public. See NYTimes, Biden Calls for End to Gaza War, Endorsing Israeli Cease-Fire Proposal. (Accessible to all.)

Per the Times, Biden said,

“It’s time for this war to end, for the day after to begin,” Mr. Biden said, speaking from the State Dining Room at the White House. He also gave a stark description of Hamas’s diminished capabilities after more than seven months of Israeli attacks, saying that “at this point, Hamas is no longer capable of carrying out another Oct. 7.”

“This is truly a decisive moment,” Mr. Biden said. “Israel has made their proposal. Hamas says it wants a cease-fire. This deal is an opportunity to prove whether they really mean it.” [¶]

“I know there are those in Israel who will not agree with this plan and will call for the war to continue indefinitely,” Mr. Biden said, adding that some in Mr. Netanyahu’s government have made clear they want to “occupy Gaza.”

“They want to keep fighting for years, and the hostages are not a priority to them,” Mr. Biden said in what appeared to be a direct message to the far-right members of Mr. Netanyahu’s cabinet. “I’ve urged leadership of Israel to stand behind this deal.”

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President Biden’s comments on Trump guilty verdicts

President Biden’s first comments on Trump's guilty verdicts focused on the defense of the American justice system. See ABC, Biden reacts to Trump's conviction for the 1st time, calls attacks on judicial system 'reckless'.

President Biden said,

"The American principle that no one is above the law was reaffirmed. Donald Trump was given every opportunity to defend himself."

"That's how the American system of justice works, and it's reckless, it's dangerous, it's irresponsible for anyone to say this was rigged just because they don't like verdict. Our justice system has endured for nearly 250 years, and it literally is a cornerstone of America. Our justice system should be respected. We should never allow anyone to tear it down. It's as simple as that."

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Opportunity for Reader engagement

Join Focus for Democracy’s event on Monday, June 3rd!

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Monday, June 3rd, 5pm PT / 8pm ET

Registration link: https://bit.ly/F4D3June

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Join BigTent USA with Barbara McQuade, and Kimberly Atkins-Stohr on Tuesday, June 4 at 7:00 pm Eastern

On Tuesday, June 4, 2024 at 7pm ET/4pm PT BigTentUSA is thrilled to host MSNBC’s legal expert, Barbara McQuade, and Kimberly Atkins-Stohr, senior opinion writer and columnist at The Boston Globe. McQuade will discuss her new book, Attack from Within– an urgent, comprehensive explanation of the ways disinformation is impacting democracy, and practical solutions that can be pursued to strengthen the public, media, and truth-based politics. She will break down the ways disinformation has become a tool to drive voters to extremes.  Please registering via this link now! 

BigTentUSA is a moderate, inclusive, and collaborative community empowering citizens to take action to protect democracy, defend women’s rights, and protect our children. Join our free educational series of events and our calls to action detailed and updated regularly on our website.

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Concluding Thoughts

As a group, Democrats need to be more visible and proactive in signaling their support for Joe Biden. How often do we see “Let’s Go Brandon” bumper stickers on pickup trucks versus Biden-Harris bumper stickers on any vehicle? (Let’s Go Brandon is right-wing code for an obscenity directed at Joe Biden.) In my experience, “Let’s Go Brandon” stickers are frequently seen, but Biden-Harris bumper stickers are relatively rare.

As I noted above, part of our mission over the next five months is “showing up and speaking out.” That requires each of us to take personal action.

As an example, I post below a Comment by reader Shawn Gauthier, who expresses his frustration over fighting a lonely battle to Democrats to engage others by wearing a tee shirt with the motto, Dems Make Life Better. Here is Shawn’s note:

I wear a Biden Tee Shirt on every Grocery Run. I had hoped this effort would catch on. It hasn’t. Many express fear of retribution. Many express that showing enthusiasm for Biden would be disingenuous. They plan on voting for him despite their disappointment . . .  but that private vote is the only support they will give.

None of this makes sense to me and I am distraught by my lack of influence on anyone, on people who love me.

I’ve worn a Biden shirt on 40+ grocery runs in Florida without incident. I was afraid, initially. But that’s WHY I did it. Standing up to bullies is all it takes to defeat them. They rely on your fear to win through forfeiture, and Dems are conceding at every opportunity.

So, you’re lukewarm on Biden? A Biden shirt shows support for women and LGBTQ people and Democracy. Add THAT fire to your tepid support!

You say you’ll show your support on November 5 at the ballot box? Great! And if we fall short, will you regret it for 4 years? Or Trump’s next 12 years? Or for his Supreme Court’s next 30 years?

I wear a Biden shirt because I want to do all I can with $30 to build enthusiasm for Dems. We have so much to be proud of. But like Target reducing its participation in Pride month by 1/2 for fear of backlash, we are cowering when we should be advancing. What message does it send to bury our heads in the sand, to play possum in the hope we’ll avoid conflict?

You can buy (non-Biden) pro-Dem Tees at DemsMakeLifeBetter.Org. Or Biden/Harris Tees at BeantownStrong.org.

Thanks, Shawn. Leading by example is exactly what we need!

Does everyone need to wear a tee-shirt promoting Biden? No. But we must do something to show our support. Post a yard sign. Post on social media. Use a bumper sticker. It is long past time for Democrats to start being loud and proud. We have every reason to be. And our confidence will inspire others—or perhaps just start a conversation. Either way, it’s a win.

Talk to you on Monday!

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To help start the weekend on a note of perspective and calm, see this photo of Comet C/2023 A3 (Tsuchinshan–ATLAS). The photo, taken from my backyard, shows a comet that will pass within 36 million miles of the Sun in September 2024 and be visible to the naked eye in September and October.

If the comet orbits the Sun, the orbital period is millions of years. Or it may be on a path that will eject it from the solar system, never to return. So, this picture may show a once-in-the-life-of-the-universe visit by comet C2023-A3 to the inner solar system. Something to think about when you worry about how we will make it through the next five months!