The tipping point?

August 19, 2022

          In a surprise development, Magistrate Judge Bruce E. Reinhart ruled that portions of the FBI’s affidavit justifying a search of Mar-a-Lago could “presumptively be unsealed” in redacted form. Before jumping to conclusions about the likely outcome, let’s discuss the framework for Magistrate Reinhart’s decision. First, Reinhart was appointed by and reports to the federal judges in the Southern District of Florida. In most matters, the supervising judges adopt the recommendations of their magistrates. Here, however, the matter involves intense public scrutiny and overarching public interest. The federal judge to whom Reinhart’s ruling will be appealed will review the matter anew (“de novo”). In other words, we are weeks away (at least) before the matter is resolved in the Southern District of Florida. Further appeals are likely, which would impose an additional delay.

          The DOJ’s request to maintain the confidentiality of the underlying affidavit is appropriate and should be honored. Still, Americans should not fear—indeed, should welcome—any additional information justifying the search. Media reports suggest that Merrick Garland deliberated for weeks before authorizing the application for the search warrant. We should have confidence that Garland’s cautious nature ensured there was ample justification for the search. Moreover, every revelation to date has undermined Trump’s position and injected doubt into his reasons for retaining defense secrets.

          Additional details may tamp down the wildly irresponsible statements emanating from all quarters of the GOP. Rupert Murdoch’s Wall Street Journal published an op-ed threatening reprisal searches of the homes of Joe Biden and Merrick Garland if Republicans retake the presidency. See Kimberly Strassel in WSJ, The Payback for Mar-a-Lago Will Be Brutal. (“What went around Monday will come around hard for the Democrats when Republicans control the Justice Department and FBI.”)  Newsweek published an op-ed calling for the abolition of the FBI. And GOP candidate for the House, Carl Paladino, said Merrick Garland “should probably be executed.” (The candidate later said he was being “facetious” when he made the statement.)

          The profusion of dangerous statements might be excused if Republican leaders condemned the statements. But their silence is deafening. Indeed, Elise Stefanik is supporting Carl Paladino for the House despite his latest in a long line of reprehensible statements, which include praising Adolf Hitler as “the kind of leader we need today.” Stefanik’s response was to criticize those who criticized Paladino for “taking his comments out of context.” There was nothing “out of context” about Paladino’s praise for Hitler, and Stefanik knows it. But she could not find the courage to condemn another Republican who supports Trump.

          I do not list these egregious examples of Republican depravity to generate a sense of catastrophe or doom. Rather, the point is that we must accept that Republicans are the enemies of democracy. That is a statement of fact, not a partisan attack or histrionic exaggeration. As Charles M. Blow said in his op-ed in the NYTimes on Thursday,

          We must stop thinking it hyperbolic to say that the Republican Party itself is now a threat to our democracy. I understand the queasiness about labeling many of our fellow Americans in that way. I understand that it sounds extreme and overreaching.

          But how else are we to describe what we are seeing?

          Former CIA Director Michael Hayden recently agreed with a journalist who tweeted that he had “never come across a political force more nihilistic [or] dangerous” than the Republican Party. Hayden replied, “I agree. And I was the CIA Director.”

          Accepting that Republicans have no interest in the rule of law or holding Trump to account for his multiple crimes, the best outcome for the nation is to accelerate the pace of the investigations, indictment, and conviction of Trump. That is why Magistrate Reinhart’s ruling today should not be viewed with fear or dread, but with hope that Trump’s day of reckoning is coming. Whatever we think Trump may have done, what he did is worse than we think.

          Coda: Trump is reportedly puzzled by the laser-like ability of the FBI to locate highly classified sensitive documents. Per media reports, Trump is worried that a member of the family is cooperating with the DOJ. See Business Insider, Trump aides think a family member informed on him to the FBI because agents knew where to find a specific leather case, report says. Former Trump friends are throwing Jared Kushner under the bus as a possible informant. See Business Insider, Mary Trump speculates that Jared Kushner could be the 'Mar-a-Lago mole' after reports say an informant close to Trump guided FBI agents to the documents.

          Such reports are wild speculation, but the fact that Trump family members are being mentioned as possible informants highlights the increasing pressure faced by Trump as the various investigations gather momentum.

          In a similar vein is the fact that the CFO of the Trump Organization pleaded guilty to fourteen counts of tax fraud and will be required to testify against Trump’s eponymous business—which is the alter ego of Donald Trump. Another thing for Trump to worry about. See CBS News, Former Trump Org. exec pleads guilty to fraud, agrees to testify against company.

Is Russia planning to attack nuclear power plant in Ukraine?

          Russia captured the largest Ukrainian nuclear power plant in the early days of its invasion of Ukraine. Russia nominally transferred control of the plant to Russia’s nuclear power agency. In fact, the plant has been operated by Ukrainian staff at gun point. To make matters worse, Russia has been sheltering artillery at the plant that is used to attack Ukrainian defenders.

          On Thursday, Russia abruptly pulled its nuclear staff members out of the power plant. Many observers believe the pull-out is a prelude to a Russian attack on the plant—for which Russia will blame Ukraine. See NYTimes, Ukraine and Russia Accuse Each Other of Plotting Attack on Nuclear Plant.

          UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres and President Zelenskyy are desperately attempting to establish a de-militarized zone around the plant—a proposal that Russia has deemed “unacceptable.” See Reuters, Leaders of Ukraine, U.N. seek to secure Russian-held nuclear plant. Although Russia is not “losing” the war, it isn’t “winning” the war, either. A false flag attack on a nuclear power plant may give Russia cover to escalate the war in an asymmetrical way. That would be a typical Putin move.

Concluding Thoughts.

          On Thursday, Mitch McConnell made a few brief comments about the 2022 midterm elections that spoke volumes. He said,

I think there’s probably a greater likelihood the House flips than the Senate. Senate races are just different — they’re statewide, candidate quality has a lot to do with the outcome.

          Although much of the media’s attention has been on McConnell’s first sentence, the significance lies in the second sentence. It is true that the races for US Senate have tightened over the last three months. That does not mean that Democrats will maintain control of the Senate; it means that the “conventional wisdom” about the party in power losing ground in midterms is not a reliable guide in unconventional times.

          But importantly, McConnell acknowledges one of the reasons that the races are tightening is “candidate quality.” McConnell uses the term “candidate quality” as code for “MAGA candidates loyal to Trump.” For those yearning for an end to the descent into madness of Trumpism, the 2022 Senate races may reflect the tipping point. Josh Marshall of Talking Points Memo notes that McConnell failed to entice “regular” Republicans like Chris Sununu, Larry Hogan, and Doug Ducey to step into GOP primaries dominated by extremophile Trumpists. Instead, McConnell has been burdened with candidates like Blake Masters, JD Vance, Don Buldoc, Dr. Oz, and Hershel Walker.  

          We have repeatedly witnessed the phenomenon of extremist conspiracy mongers chasing away mainstream Republican candidates unwilling to buy into Trump’s platform of mass delusion. The Republican Party is simultaneously becoming more extreme, more unelectable, and smaller as Trump quashes the last remaining pockets of resistance within the GOP. When all that remains of the GOP is an army of Trump clones and acolytes, it will not be able to persuade persuadable independents—a development that will be the death knell of the Republican Party.

          I am not saying that we can wait for Republicans to defeat themselves. I am saying that Mitch McConnell is seeing the same reality that you are seeing—that the GOP’s cultish devotion to Trump is repelling voters the GOP is trying to attract. That is not a long-term model for success for any political party—but Trump has changed the GOP for the long-term by remaking the party in his image.

          Major media outlets have largely ignored this story because “gas is $6.00 a gallon!” Candidate quality matters, especially when one party measures “quality” by unstinting loyalty to a traitorous narcissist and the other party measures quality by the willingness to advance the interests of constituents. Over the long term, the party that puts constituents first will prevail. We are already starting to see that reality percolate through slow but steady trends in polling over time. As always, we have every reason to be hopeful, but no reason to be complacent!

          Talk to you tomorrow!