“The only poll that matters.”

September 21, 2023

          After months of “doom-and-gloom” polls for President Biden and the Democrats, the media narrative has begun to bend to the reality of the facts on the ground. The tipping point came with two Democratic victories in special elections on Tuesday. It would be wrong to draw conclusions from such a small sample, but the victories are part of a trend in which Democrats outperform expectations and Joe Biden’s margins of victory in 2020.  

          Democrat Hal Rafter flipped a seat in the New Hampshire House and Lindsay Powell won a seat in the Pennsylvania House. Both victories were significant. Rafter inched Democrats closer to flipping the GOP majority in the New Hampshire House and Powell’s victory maintained the Democratic one-vote majority in the Pennsylvania House. See Dennis Aftergut in The Hill, Democrats keep winning special elections in battleground states.

          Aftergut points out that reproductive liberty played an important role in the victories of Rafter and Powell:

Both victories were consistent with a 2023 national trend, with abortion-rights Democrats overperforming in the wake of the 2022 Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade, the 1973 decision that legalized abortion nationally.

          The “overperformance” by Democratic candidates over Biden’s 2020 results is not a weak signal in the noise; it is on the order of ten percentage points. Again, per Aftergut,

Brent Peabody of the Center for a New American Security has tracked Democrats’ overperformance in more than 20 state elections in 2023. The party’s candidates have outpaced Biden’s 2020 performance by substantial margins.

Noting the same trend, ABC News reported that Democrats had “outperformed the partisan lean” by an average of 10 percent in an analysis of 23 special elections in 2023. That doesn’t mean they always won, as 10 percent would not be enough in deep red districts. But it is a good sign for Democratic presidential hopes in 2024 battleground states.

          To be clear, the Democratic “overperformance” includes elections in which Democrats lost but narrowed Biden’s margin of loss in 2020. (The data is here: Daily Kos Elections 2023-24 cycle D-vs.-R special elections vs. presidential results - Google Sheets).

          The most consistent, reliable source for information about Democratic prospects at the state and national level is Simon Rosenberg’s Hopium Chronicles on Substack. His most recent article, whch covers the above (and more), is here: Democrats Just Keep Winning, Biden Administration Engages Young Americans. Rosenberg writes:

The heightened Democratic performance we saw in the elections after Dobbs last year has carried over, powerfully, to 2023. Is it predictive of what will happen next year? Of course not. But is it really good news? Absolutely. As I often say - as we head into 2024, I would much rather be us than them. We keep winning. They have Trump.

          The trend noted above is based on the results of actual elections—as opposed to polls that ask voters about candidates they will support in future elections. When voters are put to the test in the voting booth, they vote for the candidate who promises to protect their liberties.

The trend in special elections is more meaningful and relevant than the polls the media has hyped incessantly over the last six months. Let’s hope that the media corrects its overemphasis on polls to the exclusion of election results. If they don’t, ignore the polls!

Donald Trump's mental lapses are ignored by the media.

          When President Biden was on a five-day whirlwind world tour earlier this month, the media jumped down his throat when he appeared to be “tired” and “jet-lagged” during a press conference in Vietnam. The journalists posing as amateur neurologists pronounced Biden “too old” to be president. On Tuesday, Donald Trump told an audience that he beat Barack Obama in the 2016 election and Joe Biden is so incompetent he is likely to start “World War Two.”

          Trump's mental lapses garnered scant notice in major media outlets. CNN called the disconnects from reality “gaffes,” saying that Trump “misspoke.”  The Guardian was more direct: ‘Cognitively impaired’? Trump’s confused attacks on Biden start to backfire. MSNBC highlighted the facts in its headline: Trump confuses Obama and Biden in speech, warns Biden will lead U.S. into 'World War II'.

          The video of Trump's confused attacks on Obama, er Biden, claiming that he will start WWII, or was it the War of 1812, is here: Video: See Trump's gaffe while attacking Biden.

          To state the obvious, if Biden claimed he beat Mitt Romney in the 2020 election and claimed credit for “avoiding WWII,” there would be non-stop coverage of those “gaffes” for weeks. So, what can we do? Level the playing field by sharing the video of Trump's “gaffes” so that Republican voters can see that when the world press hangs on every word you utter, you will eventually make mistakes. Everyone does. And not every “gaffe” is a sign of dementia.

Merrick Garland’s testimony before the House Judiciary Committee

          Attorney General Merrick Garland testified before the House Judiciary Committee on Wednesday. As usual, the Republican hearing was an insult to the American people and a monumental waste of time as House Republicans flail helplessly in the budget process. And, as usual, Republicans set themselves up for embarrassment.

Rep. Eric Swalwell responded to Jim Jordan’s threat to hold Merrick Garland in contempt of Congress for refusing to disclose conversations, if any, with special counsel David Weiss regarding the Hunter Biden investigation.

          As Rep. Swalwell pointed out, Jim Jordan has refused to comply with a congressional subpoena regarding the events of January 6. It is worth your time to watch Swalwell in action: 'Are you kidding me?!': Lawmaker calls out Jim Jordan at hearing (cnn.com).

President Biden announces American Climate Corps.

          Taking a page from the history books—including the Civilian Conservation Corps and Peace Corps—President Biden announced the American Climate Corps, a program designed to recruit and train young Americans in jobs in clean energy, conservation, and climate resilience. See WhiteHouse.gov, Biden-Harris Administration Launches American Climate Corps.

          Per the White House press release,

The American Climate Corps will mobilize a new, diverse generation of more than 20,000 Americans – putting them to work conserving and restoring our lands and waters, bolstering community resilience, deploying clean energy, implementing energy-efficient technologies, and advancing environmental justice, all while creating pathways to high-quality, good-paying clean energy and climate resilience jobs in the public and private sectors after they complete their paid training program.

          If you (or someone you know) is interested in the Climate Corps, check out American Climate Corps | The White House, where you can sign up to learn more about the opportunities available.

Reader Comment of the Day.

          Reader Janet R. posted the following in the Comments section:

I wanted to share this link for people who do not subscribe to Timothy Snyder’s newsletter. During President Zelenskyy’s visit, Prof. Snyder posted this short-spoken word thank you note to Ukraine. It is simply beautiful. Thanking Ukrainians - by Timothy Snyder.

            Thanks to Janet for her comment. Professor Snyder’s “thank you” audio to the Ukrainian people is terrific. I hope you will listen. If you don’t have time, a summary is below, but it does not impart the emotion and detail of Professor Snyder’s audio rendition of why Americans should be thankful to Ukrainians. Here’s the list:

• Security in Europe

• Security in the Pacific

• Feeding the world

• Making nuclear war less likely

• Giving democracy a chance

• Talking about freedom

• Showing courage

• Searching for truth

• Giving us a chance to be on the right side.

The budget impasse in the House Republican caucus.

          While there was a lot of chatter on Wednesday about possible progress in breaking the impasse in the House GOP caucus, such a breakthrough is unlikely to avoid a shutdown. So . . . there are rumors that centrist Democrats and a handful of Republicans are talking about a deal to pass a continuing resolution that would garner bipartisan support. See Politico,  Centrist Dems and McCarthy's allies are in secret talks to strike a deal.

          I don’t know what to make of the reporting in the article, which seems to be well-sourced. The only certainty is that the next ten days will be wild. If only Democrats were in charge of the House . . . .

Reader meeting in San Francisco.

          I am finalizing arrangements for a reader meeting at a private residence in the Pacific Heights area of San Francisco on Friday, October 6. If you are interested in attending, please fill out the form here: Register for Today's Edition Reader Meeting in San Francisco.

Join me and Melissa Walker of Giving Circles on Thursday evening.

          A reminder that I will be joining Melissa Walker of The States Project/Giving Circles on Thursday, September 21 at 7:30 PM Eastern. Melissa and I will discuss the political landscape in America and TSP's successes and upcoming challenges in holding and flipping state legislatures.

          Click here to join the discussion:  Zoom Meeting.

Seth Hufstedler’s 101st Birthday.

          Many readers in the legal community know Seth Hufstedler. I joined Seth today at his home to help celebrate his 101st birthday. If you know Seth, I am sure he would enjoy hearing from you. He is sharp as a tack, continues to read voraciously, and follows current events with keen interest. If you need his contact information, reply to me at rbhubbell@gmail.com and I will provide information for contacting Seth. Thanks!

Concluding Thoughts.

          We are in a “noisy” news environment with a high disinformation quotient and an inexplicable drift of major media outlets to the right. Those factors impose a “tax” on our psyche: We are constantly sifting through and deflecting “bad” information in an effort to find the truth. While relying on our “instincts” is not a solution to many problems, it can serve us well in an information environment that is subject to manipulation.

          Any rational person would conclude that candidates who seek to protect personal liberty and promote the rule of law should outperform candidates who seek to limit personal freedoms and impose autocracy. Pollsters have been telling us for months that the seemingly rational proposition is not supported by the majority of Americans. But our guts have been telling us otherwise. Today’s news about the results in special elections tells us that our instincts have been correct all along.

          As Simon Rosenberg said in his post today, that doesn’t guarantee success in 2024. But you would much rather belong to the party that has been overperforming in special elections than to the party whose standard bearer is Donald Trump. Don’t fall victim to media narratives designed to create false drama and promote conflict. Trust your instincts, ignore the noise, but leave nothing to chance!

          Talk to you tomorrow!