The Los Angeles Firestorm
January 9, 2025
The largest firestorm ever to hit Los Angeles has ravaged the nation’s second-most populous city. Tens of thousands have lost their homes, hundreds of thousands have evacuated, and everyone is dealing with collateral effects, which include widespread power outages, low or no water pressure, and unhealthy air.
Jill and I (and our families) are safe. But we know eight families that have lost their homes. We know many more who fled their homes on Tuesday and do not know whether their homes are still standing. We have opened our home to friends who evacuated from the Eaton Fire (Pasadena / Altadena area).
Widespread power outages have affected traffic lights across broad portions of LA, making driving more dangerous. Many schools were closed, which meant that Jill and I spent the day caring for granddaughters—always a blessing.
Amid a humanitarian crisis, President-elect Donald Trump posted a statement that insulted California’s governor, Gavin Newsom, by claiming the governor was to blame for the wildfires for refusing to sign a fictional “water restoration agreement.” Trump wrote:
Governor Gavin Newscum refused to sign the water restoration declaration put before him that would have allowed millions of gallons of water, from excess rain and snow melt from the North, to flow daily into many parts of California.
Turning a tragedy into a callous, crass political attack is reprehensible. Moreover, Trump’s post demonstrates that he does not understand the nature of the crisis facing Los Angeles. “Lack of water” did not cause the conflagration; climate change did. Although climate change is not entirely responsible for the fires, which are a seasonal feature in Los Angeles, it is responsible for magnifying the intensity and scale of the fires to unprecedented levels.
California experiences seasonal desert winds (called Santa Ana winds) from October through March. But the combined effect of a warmer-than-usual Pacific Ocean, a wobbling jet stream that has wandered into the mid-latitudes of the US, and record-low levels of humidity turned blustery Santa Ana winds into hurricane-force winds that created a blast-furnace effect. See Vox, The unusually strong force behind the apocalyptic fires in Los Angeles
Some observers may argue that single weather events, standing alone, cannot prove that climate change is real. Point taken. But the insurance industry studies trends in weather disasters and draws reasonable inferences about changes in the risk environment.
Fire insurers have recently concluded that the trend of wildfires in California is no longer a risk they can tolerate. Many of those who lost their homes over the last two days have recently lost their fire insurance coverage as insurers have exited the California market. See Business Insider, Insurers Cut California Fire Coverage Months Before LA, Palisades Blaze.
Despite the ubiquitous evidence of human-caused climate change, Trump plans to withdraw from the Paris Climate accords and reverse US energy policy favoring renewable energy.
At a press conference on Tuesday, Trump pledged that he would ensure that no new wind turbines would be constructed in the US because—in his addled mind—wind turbines affect the mental health of whales. See Tribune News Service, Trump says Massachusetts wind farms are ‘driving whales crazy’. (Trump pledged on Tuesday that “no windmills will be built when he regains office on Jan. 20.”)
But it is not only scientific illiteracy and general ignorance that is driving Trump's anti-environment stance. Like clockwork, right-wing social media is pushing disinformation and conspiracy theories. See Mother Jones, As Los Angeles Burns, We’re Seeing a Conflagration of Lies and Disinformation.
As noted in the Mother Jones article, right-wing hate mongers are blaming “diversity initiatives” in the Los Angeles Fire Department—a slander provoked by the simple fact that LA Fire Department is led by an LGBTQ woman. Per Mother Jones,
[C]onservative actor and Palisades homeowner James Woods [] denied that climate change played any role in the fires and blamed “diversity,” citing the LAFD chief’s profile [as a lesbian woman].
Others resurrected Trump's old claims that California experienced wildfires because it did not “rake and clean” its forest floors like Finland. Trump's claims are risible for several reasons, including the fact that the federal government owns most of the forest woodland in California—47%. The state owns only 3% of the forests, while the remainder is in private hands. Moreover, California has an aggressive prescribed burn plan designed to reduce fuel load in the areas that California owns.
Los Angeles faces several more agonizing days of wind-driven fires--to be followed by the slow process of containing a dozen wildfires in hilly, dry terrain. And then the victims must begin the long process of rebuilding homes and reclaiming normalcy. That process will require assistance from local, state, and federal government agencies. At a time when too many see the government as the enemy, we are reminded once again that “Government is simply the name we give to the things we choose to do together.”
Coda
Early in the day, a reader recommended an app that provides real-time information about wildfires in an easy to use but comprehensive format. I have been using the app throughout the day to understand what is happening around us. The app is called Watch Duty. It is run by a network of volunteers and is free to download and use. Enhanced versions for professionals and journalists start at $24.99 per year. If you are affected by the fires, I highly recommend this app. The link is here: Watch Duty - Wildfire Maps & Alerts
Update on various appeals
Trump is working furiously to prevent the release of Jack Smith’s special counsel report and to delay the sentencing hearing in the New York hush money / election interference case.
Before turning to the specifics of those appeals, everyone in America knows that Trump planned to file an emergency appeal to the US Supreme Court, if necessary. Those appeals must be lodged before Friday (at the latest) to delay the sentencing hearing in the New York state case.
The justices on the Supreme Court must know that they will be called upon this week to rule on an appeal from defendant Trump. Given that knowledge, it is shocking that Justice Alito spoke to Trump by telephone on Tuesday of this week. See Rueters, US Supreme Court Justice Alito spoke to Trump on Tuesday.
The contact between Trump and Alito was unseemly and likely unethical. The ostensible purpose of the call was for Justice Alito to give a job recommendation for a former law clerk seeking a job in the Trump administration. That pretense is not credible.
A letter of recommendation from a Supreme Court justice is as good as it gets in terms of a job recommendation. The notion that Trump was required to call Justice Alito for a job recommendation for a federal employee is ludicrous. However, when we add that Trump and Alito knew that defendant Trump would be filing an emergency appeal this week, the personal contact is outrageous.
Alito is a horrible liar—as his varying explanations in the flag controversies demonstrated. Alito’s excuse for talking to Trump was that the conversation occurred before Trump filed an emergency appeal. (Trump filed the appeal on Wednesday, one day after the conversation.)
Alito either believes we are idiots and don’t understand the corrupt nature of the call, or Alito doesn’t care what we think. My money is on the latter.
Alito is out of control and is giving the “judicial middle finger” to the American public and to the feckless John Roberts who has lost all control over the Court.
Trump asks Supreme Court to delay sentencing hearing in hush money case
On Wednesday, one day after Alito and Trump spoke, Trump filed an application asking for the Court to delay his sentencing hearing in the hush money case. The brief is here: Application for Stay.
Harry Litman explains why the Supreme Court should deny Trump's application for a stay. See Harry Litman on Substack, Talking Feds, There’s No Irreparable Injury Here.
The central premise of Litman’s article is this:
[T] he “essence” of immunity is a right not to have to go to court in the first place. That principle doesn’t work for a claim that the trial court improperly admitted an item of evidence. Unlike a prospective trial, any harm has already occurred; it doesn’t make sense to provide a stay to keep the harm from happening.
So, granting a stay would not achieve the purposes of presidential immunity. Instead, it would merely prevent Trump from becoming an “official” felon. As Litman explains, “sentencing is the point at which a conviction actually occurs,” because the court enters a judgment of conviction that includes the sentence.
If the US Supreme Court grants a delay of the sentencing hearing, it will do so only for partisan reasons—once again undermining the legitimacy of the Court.
Trump appeals to US Supreme Court to block release of special counsel report
Trump has filed an application in the US Supreme Court to block the release of special counsel Jack Smith’s report. The Court has ordered the Department of Justice to file a response by Thursday morning at 10:00 a.m.
In the meantime, the DOJ has clarified that it intends to release only the portion of the report that relates to Trump's interference in the 2020 election—not the national defense documents case, which is still pending against two Trump co-defendants. See HuffPo, DOJ To Release Jack Smith's Findings In Trump Jan. 6 Probe.
As with the sentencing hearing, there is no basis for the Court to intervene to aid Trump, who is seeking partisan advantage only, not legal relief.
The Supreme Court’s actions take place against a backdrop in which Judge Aileen Cannon has engaged in extra-judcial self-help for Trump. See Mark Joseph Stern in Slate, Aileen Cannon’s Obstruction of Jack Smith’s Report Is Literally Lawless.
As Stern writes,
Here’s the problem: Cannon cannot do this. The startling breadth of her order is extremely dubious, but the legal flaw runs even deeper; she is purporting to exercise authority that she just does not have.
That’s because Cannon no longer holds jurisdiction over this case; she has relinquished it to the 11th Circuit, which has thus far declined to issue the very relief that she granted. She therefore lacks any power to interfere with the Justice Department’s release of Smith’s report.
Judge Cannon is running amok with impunity. The 11th Circuit has not objected to Cannon’s gamesmanship to override its jurisdiction over the defense secrets case.
If the Supreme Court sanctions Cannon’s extra-judicial efforts by granting Trump a stay, we will have truly moved beyond the pale. In the next forty-eight hours, the Supreme Court will signal whether it is irretrievably lost.
Call from Grassroots Connector for appearances at virtual townhall by candidates for DNC Chair
It is time for the DNC to give the grassroots movement a formal seat at the table. A good way to begin that process is for candidates seeking to serve as Chair of the DNC to appear before grassroots organizations to make their case. The Grassroots Connector has invited the two leading candidates, Ben Wikler and Martin O’Malley, to appear at a virtual townhall.
Susan Wagner sent the following note on behalf of Grassroots Connector, a central hub of grassroots efforts:
The vote for DNC Chair will take place on February 1st. The Grassroots Connector has invited the two front runners for the Chair, Ben Wikler and Martin O’Malley to a virtual town hall.
The Grassroots Connector would like an opportunity on behalf of their member organizations, to discuss issues unique to grassroots volunteers, an opportunity that has been afforded to other constituencies in the Democratic Party. Please help to spread the word and lobby Ben and Martin to participate in a virtual townhall with grassroots volunteers.
Concluding Thoughts
On Tuesday, two Democrats won state legislative special elections in Virginia—preserving Democratic control in the legislature. See Politico, Virginia Democrats notch first win in second Trump era.
Thousands of grassroots volunteers participated in phone banks and sent postcards to increase turnout for special elections during bitter cold and snow. They did so during a time when many Democrats understandably want to look away or take a break. We owe a special thanks to the volunteers who helped JJ Singh and Kannan Srinivasan win their special elections.
This is how it begins. Small steps. Incremental victories. Winning state legislative victories. While we should not overinterpret two victories in special elections, you can bet your last dollar that if Democrats had lost, it would be the biggest story in the news cycle for several days. We should treat the victories as harbingers of success in 2026 and 2028!
Talk to you tomorrow!
Daily Dose of Perspective
I did not have time today to set up my scope this evening, so I am republishing an image of the Lagoon Nebula because it is beautiful. The nebula is 4,100 light-years from Earth and is 50 light-years at its widest point.
Enjoy!
Like so many of us, I have been staggering around in the dark since November 5th. Partly just licking the wounds of a surprising and inexplicable loss, but mostly trying to figure out what lessons to take from the debacle and what to do next. As has been noted here and elsewhere, the mainstream media has been virtually useless in this process and have in fact gotten in the way with their off point races for clicks that do nothing more than divert from the necessary analysis while adding to the overall level of anxiety.
I get that it's not easy, maybe even impossible, to fully understand the big picture while it's still being painted or developed. I certainly don't have all the answers myself. But I do know a couple of things: Consistently doing the same thing over and over again while expecting a different result is madness and focusing on the small stuff while the big stuff is running us over is not helping.
I have come to realize that one of the biggest reasons the results of this past election were so painful is that it marked the end of an era. And that was the era in which I grew up, in which I learned whatever it is I know, in which I gained the experience to apply my knowledge in certain particular ways, in which facts were known things and formed the basis for reasoned argument, which followed a certain pattern even if it lead different people to different results. Those days are over. People like me have still not grasped just how much of a revolution the internet/digital age is. We are generals fighting the last war while the blitzkrieg zips past and around us.
Let's remember this: In 1930's Germany, if one wanted to resist the Nazis, one did not join the equivalent of the Democratic and Republican Parties (i.e. the mainstream parties). One joined or worked with the Communist Party because they were the only ones actually resisting, the only ones rising to the occasion with an understanding of how the war was being fought. That's not an endorsement of Communism. It is a dis-endorsement of traditional politics when those politics are not up to the challenge of the moment.
My personal bottom line is that the Democratic Party and many of its (loudest) supporters in the media have persisted (yes, I used that word on purpose) in bringing slingshots to machine gun fights, with predictable results. I'm done. This war (not battle) needs to be fought on many fronts simultaneously and it needs to be fought consciously, with intent using all available weapons.
So I think it's great that my dear friend Susan Wagner wants to bring the DNC Chair candidates in front of the grassroots constituency and I support that. But I'm also saying this: I'm drawing a line in the sand: If the Administration does not release BOTH the Special Counsel reports immediately (that's not a deadline, it is an expression of urgency with the outside deadline being January 19th) they can continue on without me. This has to happen and there is a straight path to get there: Just do it. Just do it, Merrick Garland. If Merrick Garland won't do it, just order him to do it, President Biden. If that doesn't work let's have our own Saturday Night Massacre until somebody does it. The President can and should provide all necessary cover with pardons for the appropriate parties. These are the tools of the new age. Use 'em or lose.
To claim to be hamstrung by an order by Aileen Cannon, Donald Trump's personal judge is absurd. It gives respect to a system that no longer exists. It is an application of old tools to a new reality. Her order is extra-judicial. Ignore it. Donald would. Instead of bemoaning Alito's conversation with Trump, let's recognize what we already know: The price of a Supreme Court vote has already been established: It's something less than $4 Million in Thomas's case and well less than that in Alito's. They are corrupt. Why do we still give them the courtesy of acting like we live in normal times? Why should the Supreme Court get to decide whether the Special Counsel reports are released? It's an executive decision. As I understand it, Trump hasn't even bothered to make a constitutional argument. As between the Supreme Court and the President the President is far better suited to make this decision.
We may well need to explain to the public that Trump either doesn't know what he's talking about or is outright lying when it comes to CA water policies and wild fires, but the bigger message is that he is casting blame, pointing fingers and wasting time at a time that requires definitive action and that his record of FAILURE in this area stands on its own. Where are the pictures of the aftermath of the August Complex Fire? Where are the memes about raking leaves as a purported solution to wildfires? Where is the observation that Mump's proposed budget would cut the hell out of FEMA? And that argument doesn't require a line by line budget analysis; it requires bold statements of inevitable consequences despite whatever sleights of hand and tongue the Trumpists try to make. We don't have to respond to their claims with detailed budget numbers; we need to respond with bottom line truth: If Trump were in charge there would be nobody to fight the fires and there sure as hell wouldn't be Canadian resources being brought to bear.
I could follow this through ad infinitum, issue by issue but the point remains the same: Not only are we being outplayed and being forced to play defense, we have become the Washington Generals*, programmed and destined to lose due to the nature of the rules of the game. If the Democrats won't play the game that's actually on the field, it's time to move on.
Last night I checked in on a good friend who lives in LA. In fact she had just moved back this summer. She lives in a neighborhood next to Pacific Palisades and told me she was getting that there was high warning. I could feel her indecisiveness about when to leave and I told her to get out NOW! I said, I am not there and therefore am very clear headed. The risk of staying any longer is too great. She showed me a picture of a sky filled with flames in a distance that seemed too near, just from a smoke inhalation stance. She did then decide to leave and notified me when she was safe, many hours later. I am relieved.
A friend forwarded this link of people filming the fire around their house. Quite concerning. I hope they got rescued. I think that the stress makes people unable to make decisions sometimes. https://x.com/i/status/1876845562328146405
Trump and Musk's responses are like the Covid Chaos all over again. Trump is like a suicide bomber, blowing up everything, but this is his country too that he is destroying. He is destroying the reputation. Even autocrats, while they may welcome it will not respect him. He is ending the US empire.
I also have read Project 2025, and the only good thing about this fire is that it happened while Biden is still president, because under Trump FEMA is supposed to no longer offer financial support, or at a much reduced rate of like 25% with the municipality effected being told to food the bill. (Again, this is about tax cuts for the super wealthy, not anything else.) In any case, they also no longer intend to offer federal Flood insurance either. Everything is going to be open for predatory businesses to prey on and destroy Americans.