The GOP’s strengths are its weaknesses.

July 31, 2023

          As with almost every organization, the GOP’s strengths are also its weaknesses. For the GOP, its strengths are the cultlike loyalty of its base to a flawed leader and the handful of billionaires willing to bankroll the candidate of their choosing. In the run-up to 2024, those twin strengths are not only in tension, they are actively colliding.

Before I explain further, let’s all say this together: Democrats cannot rely on Republicans to defeat themselves. Neither should we ascribe to them superpowers they do not have. The GOP is a mess. Democrats should exploit those weaknesses by being bold, loud, and proud of their principles and accomplishments.

          The dysfunction of the GOP was on display last Friday evening during a GOP “Lincoln Dinner” in Iowa. (One can only imagine what Lincoln would have thought of the modern-day Republican Party.) Thirteen of the GOP candidates spoke for ten minutes each. As is true of most GOP gatherings today, the crowd was dominated by Trump supporters who are not only unbothered by Trump’s two indictments, they revel in them. For Trump's base, the indictments are proof that he is the ultimate outsider who represents the aggrieved non-college voters angry at America.

          Most of the candidates gave their standard stump speeches—vague promises of stopping America’s (alleged) decline that failed to mention the most important threat to democracy—Donald Trump. See The Des Moines Register, 2024 candidates are tiptoeing around Trump indictments. Iowa GOP Lincoln Dinner shows why. Indeed, the only candidate who attacked Trump directly was former congressman Will Hurd, who was booed off the stage after he stated the truth. Hurd said,

Donald Trump is not running for president to make America great again. . . Donald Trump is running to stay out of prison. . . .

[T]the truth is hard. But if we elect Donald Trump, we are willingly giving Joe Biden four more years in the White House, and America can't handle that.

          The other GOP candidates (except Chris Christie, who did not attend), did not have the courage to mention Trump. DeSantis simply ignored Trump; Nikki Haley said only that there should be a “mental competency test” for candidates over 75 (that would include Trump). Mike Pence at least alluded to Trump, saying,

[W]e must resist the politics of personality and the siren song of populism unmoored to conservative values. Because different times calls for different leadership.

          The momentary darling of the GOP candidates is entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, who “promised that he would not personally attack any of the candidates running in the Republican primary.” So, we now know that Ramaswamy has no backbone, just like his competitors. He fits right in!

          To ensure that no candidate again commits the sin of attacking Trump, Trump trashed Will Hurd on Saturday, posting:

In Iowa last night I noticed that a little known, failed former Congressman, Will Hurd, is ridiculously running for President. He got SERIOUSLY booed off the stage when he said I was running “to stay out of jail.” Wrong, if I wasn’t running, or running and doing badly (like him & Christie!), with no chance to win, these prosecutions would never have been brought or happened!

          For his part, Trump repeated his “grievance” schtick, whining about stolen elections, indictments as an effort to interfere in the 2024 election, and Joe Biden’s alleged crime family. But Trump referred to DeSantis as “DeSanctus” and told the crowd “not to take a chance on that one.”

          Polling for DeSantis has been brutal—which matters because the billionaire donor class is beginning to doubt whether he has any chance of beating Trump. A recent poll by Ohio Northern University has DeSantis in third place at 9%, behind Ramaswamy at 12% and Trump at 64%. While that poll is likely an outlier, it is part of a general trend of dropping popularity for Ron DeSantis since he announced his campaign. See Newsweek, Ron DeSantis' Popularity Plunges to Lowest in Poll's History.

          DeSantis’s stumbles have left the GOP billionaire donor class in a quandary. See HuffPo, The GOP's Billionaire Primary Is Just Getting Started. Per HuffPo,

The billionaire and millionaire businessmen (and they are basically all men) in New York City, Florida and elsewhere who make those donations could determine which candidate, if any, ultimately emerges as the lead challenger to former President Donald Trump . . . .

This GOP donor class, which fears Trump is unelectable, is desperately searching for an alternative who can successfully challenge the former president.

          If not DeSantis, who? Per HuffPo,

Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), appears to be consolidating support among the Republican influencers and donors who are desperate for a non-Trump candidate to emerge.

          The problem is that Tim Scott is currently running in sixth place (or worse). Can a handful of billionaires buy a GOP nomination for a candidate other than Trump? Before 2016, the answer would have been, “Of course, they can!” In 2023, it is doubtful they can overcome Trump's death-grip on the GOP base.

          All of which puts the GOP in the fine mess of being stuck with a leading candidate who will enter the primary season with four criminal indictments and a defamation case arising out of an alleged rape. Could things get worse for the GOP? Answer: Trump can always make things worse.

          Trump's legal expenses are becoming a material drag on his fundraising from small donors. How much of a drag? Well, consider that Trump is not only defending himself in two criminal cases and two investigations but he is also paying for the legal defense of witnesses he hopes to keep friendly. Those expenses have forced Trump to seek reimbursement of $60 million from a super PAC intended to help elect Trump in 2024. See Mediate, Maggie Haberman Drops Brutal Scoop On Trump: Spent So Much on Criminal Defense Had To Ask For $60 Million Refund From PAC.

          Sixty million dollars is a lot of money—and Trump's legal troubles are just getting off the ground. The confluence of Trump's indictments and his 2024 presidential bid has effectively turned his campaign into a legal defense fund. That is not an optimal situation—to say the least.

          In sum, Trump is running to stay out of prison, is using campaign funds to pay for the legal defense of the entire Trump criminal enterprise, and the billionaire donor class can’t find a candidate to challenge Trump polling higher than low single-digits. If Democrats were in that position, journalists would be fainting mid-broadcast from non-stop breathless reporting about how bad things were for Democrats. But for Republicans, this never-before-in-this-history-of-the-nation scenario is being treated as an amuse-bouche before the Iowa caucuses.

          Here’s my point: From both absolute and relative vantages, Democrats are much better positioned than Republicans for 2024. The major knock on Biden is his age, which is not materially different from Trump's (just ask Nikki Haley). So, as we process the dramatic events of the next several weeks, let’s recognize that restoring the rule of law is a two-pronged effort: legal and political.

          To completely restore the rule of law and remove the threat that Trump poses to democracy, we must prevail in both arenas. But they are not unrelated: Additional strong indictments against Trump will weaken him among Independents and some Republicans. In an evenly divided electorate, a small marginal advantage can translate into a major political victory.

Concluding Thoughts.

          The circus of hypocrisy and demagoguery that passes for political discourse in the GOP today is hard to watch. But as we endure the insufferable hypocrites and conmen (and women) of the GOP, let’s remember that they are destroying their party and weakening the party’s prospects for ever regaining the White House. That knowledge should help us remain steadfast through the coming tumult.

          My wife and Managing Editor wanted me to tell readers of her blog (Everyday with Jill) that all is okay. She and I have been working overtime on babysitting duty for our granddaughters—Jill especially, who is pinch-hitting twice a day for “get them off to school” and “help put them to bed” shifts (due to parents’ demanding work schedules) All should be back to normal in a week. I am proud to say that I wrote tonight’s newsletter as I was doing my first solo shift as a babysitter. I may have overdone the reading of “goodnight” books. In the middle of the fourth book, my granddaughter pointed to the crib and said, “I want to go to bed.” I think that counts as a success?

          Talk to you tomorrow!