The GOP breaks apart.
October 24, 2023
The House GOP is holding a secret “primary” for candidates for Speaker on Monday evening. They will begin secret voting on Tuesday morning to nominate a Speaker. With any luck, they will move to a floor vote by all members to elect a Speaker on Tuesday afternoon. That seemingly normal schedule belies the seismic shift that is shaking the foundation of the Republican Party. The inability of Republicans to elect a Speaker is confirmation that the GOP has effectively dissolved and continues to operate as a party in name only. See Professor Danielle Allen in Washington Post, Opinion | A functioning democratic system would make Hakeem Jeffries speaker.
As Professor Danielle Allen explains,
The solution to the leadership void in the House of Representatives is staring us in the face. We have three parties in Congress, not two: the Freedom Caucus Party, the Old Republican Party and the Democrats. The last one has the most members, so it should have the House speakership.
While all the members of the House with an R after their name might still be trying to convince themselves that they are one party, they can’t fool the rest of us. The differences are clear as day. As long as the groups stick to a commitment to be themselves, they will not be able to find a speaker with staying power.
They can continue to torture themselves and the country, or they can face the truth, split and take care of the divorce details necessary for ushering in a three-party system.
For obvious reasons, declaring the time of death of the Republican Party is not something that current Republicans are eager to do. But if any of the 222 “Republican” members of Congress care about the well-being and safety of Americans more than they care about the fate of the Republican Party, we should see significant progress this year.
Experiencing the dissolution of the Republican Party will be painful and disruptive for everyone, including Democrats. We should not assume that having three major parties instead of two will automatically inure to the benefit of Democrats. The best path forward for Democrats is to remain focused on registering new voters, motivating existing voters to show up at the polls, and protecting the right to vote and the integrity of elections. That should keep us busy while we watch the painful, unfolding drama of the GOP’s demise.
The confusing situation in Israel.
Hamas released two more hostages on Monday while rumors swirled about a larger release. Per the Wall Street Journal (behind a paywall),
Hamas set free two more civilian hostages on Monday, but negotiations over a possible release of a group of 50 captives stumbled over the militant group's demand that Israel allow fuel deliveries into Gaza, according to officials familiar with the talks.
Based on comments by Hamas when the two hostages were released on Monday, it appears that two “pauses” in Israeli bombardment coincided with the release of two sets of hostages (per reporting on Rachel Maddow’s show on Monday evening.)
The above suggests that there is a significant amount of back-channel negotiating occurring as Israel has 300,000 soldiers amassed at the Gaza border. But, as discussed in detail by Josh Marshall of Talking Points Memo, the Israeli government appears to be torn between competing factions regarding the path forward.
The internal divisions in the Israeli government are occurring against a backdrop of pressure from the US on Israel to delay the invasion and minimize civilian casualties. See Talking Points Memo, On the Brink by Josh Marshall. (The article should be accessible to all, although it is premium content behind a paywall.)
Per Marshall,
President Biden has made a huge and public show of support for Israel. Increasingly in both countries it’s been seen as a bear hug of sorts: an enveloping embrace, promises of money, arms, strategic military support and more, and yet focused in many ways on not just supporting but exercising control over Israel’s coming ground invasion.
Key U.S. goals are keeping Israel focused on limiting civilian casualties and figuring out a political solution for Gaza after Hamas. If Gaza is left in anarchy after Hamas is toppled or put back under Israeli military occupation, even the most successful military operation will just delay a return to some version of October 6th, the day before the attacks.
So what the [Israeli] military seems to be saying is: You told us to get everything ready to move right away. We did. So, we need to move now. But the government isn’t quite ready.
The situation is more complicated than the short summary above indicates, but the divisions in the government are to the point where the civilian government and military command are leaking competing narratives to the media about which side is responsible for the delay in launching a ground invasion.
As noted above, the situation on the ground is confusing—which may suggest that the Israeli government is reconsidering the wisdom of a ground invasion while it (apparently) negotiates with Hamas for the release of hostages.
Trump in brief.
Trump is coming apart at the seams. During a campaign stop in New Hampshire, he praised Viktor Orbán “as one of the strongest leaders anywhere in the world. He’s the leader of Turkey.” Orbán is NOT the leader of Turkey; the leader of Turkey is Recep Erdoğan.
So, did Trump confuse the countries Hungary and Turkey? Or did he confuse Viktor Orbán and Recep Erdoğan? Either way, it is not good. And that “mistake” follows a bizarre incident two weeks ago where Trump said twice during a speech that “Republicans eat their young.”
Imagine if Joe Biden confused Hungary and Turkey or Orbán and Erdoğan?
Meanwhile, US District Judge Tanya Chutkan temporarily lifted her gag order against Trump so he could appeal. What did Trump do during the temporary suspension of the gag order? He violated it! As soon as he was free of Judge Chutkan’s gag order, Trump unleashed a bizarre tirade on his vanity social media platform in which he referred to “Deranged Jack Smith”—an attack that would have been prohibited if the gag order had been in effect.
Even if Trump's attack on Jack Smith is not a violation of the gag order because the order is suspended pending appeal, Judge Chutkan will take notice of Trump's conduct during the brief window when the gag order was stayed. Indeed, Trump's conduct shows that the gag order works.
Finally, former Trump lawyer Michael Cohen will testify in the NY civil fraud trial against Trump on Tuesday. Trump is expected to be in the courtroom and will be unable to contain himself. The odds are even that Trump will be sanctioned for making audible responses to Cohen’s testimony. Former “First Daughter” and “Presidential Adviser” Ivanka Trump has been subpoenaed to testify for New York against her father. Following in her father’s footsteps, Ivanka Trump is seeking to avoid compliance with the subpoena issued by New York.
Late-breaking update: Trump has filed three motions to dismiss and a motion to strike in the election interference case before Judge Chutkan. I haven’t read the motions (yet), but they can be found here:
Motion to dismiss indictment for selective prosecution [No free link available.]
The Chesebro and Powell guilty pleas.
Trump-aligned attorneys Kenneth Chesebro and Sidney Powell have been busy minimizing the significance of their guilty pleas in the Georgia RICO case brought by D.A. Fani Willis. Chesebro’s attorney said,
Chesebro’s guilty plea doesn’t implicate any other defendants, and Trump should “not be worried.”
“He did not implicate anyone else. He implicated himself in that particular charge,” he said. “He is required to testify truthfully if he is called by the state, and Mr. Chesebro is a man of his word.”
“At the same time I will say, if he is called by a defendant he will testify and testify truthfully,” [Chesebro’s attorney] added.
The attorney also said he doesn’t believe his client would have much to add for the prosecution in any further case, predicting that he won’t be asked to testify in the future.
Chesebro’s efforts to minimize the significance of his guilty plea are political posturing designed to insulate him from attacks by Trump's loyalists. The significance and peril posed by the dual guilty pleas of Chesebro and Powell are explained by Dennis Aftergut in LATimes, Opinion: Why the Kenneth Chesebro and Sidney Powell guilty pleas are so dire for Donald Trump.
As explained by Aftergut,
Their agreement to provide evidence against other defendants is a significant blow to Trump and other top figures in the case, including Rudy Giuliani, former White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows and California lawyer John Eastman.
The two pleas show Willis’ strategy is unfolding precisely as designed — working up the ladder with testimony from the lesser participants to the top defendants in the alleged conspiracy.
It doesn’t matter if Chesebro believes his testimony will “implicate” anyone else. His testimony will help establish the RICO conspiracy in which Trump is charged as a co-conspirator. And as noted by Aftergut, Chesebro will make it more likely that other conspirators in the fake electors’ plot—including Giuliani and Eastman—will be convicted (or enter plea deals). That, in turn, will make it more likely that Trump will be convicted.
There is simply no positive news for Trump in the guilty pleas of Chesebro and Powell.
Concluding Thoughts.
It is possible that the “Freedom” Caucus has reached its high water mark with its failed bid to nominate Jim Jordan as Speaker. We shall see soon enough. There are additional indications at the state level that suggest that MAGA extremists have pushed their unfair advantage past the breaking point with voters.
Jennifer Rubin makes the argument that the democratic (and Democratic) uprising in Wisconsin to stop the impeachment of Judge Justice Janet Protasiewicz is an example of “an inflection point” in the battle between MAGA extremism and democratic order. See Jennifer Rubin in Washington Post, Opinion Wisconsin Dems’ big wins for the rule of law might be an inflection point.
Per Rubin,
How did Democrats prevail in a state with a near-supermajority Republican legislature protected by extreme gerrymandering?
[Answer:] Democrats’ massive effort to engage, educate and enlist the public in pushing back against what amounted to an effort to reverse the voters’ April pick of a progressive justice who threatens to upend the GOP grip on power and protect abortion rights.
[And Chair of the Democratic Party of Wisconsin Ben ] Wikler galvanized the party to raise $4 million, initiated a door-knocking and ad campaign, and focused media on the latest Republican effort to subvert an election.
In Rubin’s description of the Democratic success in Wisconsin, there is no “secret formula”—just an electorate fed up with MAGA extremism willing to do the hard work of retail politics.
The Democratic success in Wisconsin and the Republican dysfunction in the House are manifestations of the rising Democratic resistance to the nihilism and chaos that is the Republican Party. As noted above, the situation may become messier before it gets better, but it will get better—if we stay the course and do not become discouraged by disinformation designed to demoralize and confuse us. We are winning. Just ask Judge Justice Janet Protasiewicz and Jim Jordan.
Talk to you tomorrow!
One amusing aspect of the Speaker search is that the House Republicans are basically using Ranked Choice Voting to choose their designated nominee from the eight that have put their names in the hat. Each vote will eliminate the man (there are no women..) getting the least number of votes for the next round of voting until someone gets a majority of the votes. When I asked my state representative, a Republican, what he thought of Ranked Choice Voting his answer was “Not in my lifetime!” Think I’ll write him a note on how the House Republicans used it to choose the Speaker --- maybe. We, the People, all of us this time!
First, Robert is absolutely right! We are winning! "An electorate fed up with MAGA extremism willing to do the hard work of retail politics" is exactly the formula that's working all across the country.
Second, Danielle Allen in the Washington Post is absolutely wrong! MAGA is not a legitimate political party and should never be recognized as one. MAGA is an extremist, authoritarian movement within the GOP that is engaged in an active insurrection against our constitutional government.
It's absurd to suggest that we should accommodate this threat to our democratic republic by granting it the legitimacy of a political party. The MAGA movement must be decisively and irreversibly defeated, its leaders publicly disgraced. There is no place for them, or their leader Donald Trump, in our multi-cultural democracy.
If Republicans can't accomplish this themselves, we'll have to do it for them. But we do not have the luxury of letting the MAGA movement survive.
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