The "Golden Escalator" moment in Waco.

March 27, 2023

          Trump began his 2016 campaign by descending on a golden escalator into a gaggle of reporters penned in the basement of Trump Tower. That tawdry entrance—and the alarming speech that followed—were portents of the chaos and havoc that followed in the ensuing sixteen months. Trump's advisers have since admitted that he began his 2016 campaign to boost his failing brand and eroding finances. He had no intention of winning and every intention of fleecing the American public—intentions that were widely understood by the media and the public. To our everlasting regret, we underestimated Trump until it was too late.

          Of course, two impeachments and a failed insurrection later, we will not make that mistake again. But neither should we succumb to the mythology about Trump that developed later in his campaign and during the early portion of his tenure—that he is invincible, untouchable, or somehow above the laws of politics and physics. He is not, and we do ourselves a disservice if we fall victim to that carnival-barker mythology. Trump's core base makes him a perennial threat, but he is a terrible candidate. He is, in fact, the worst candidate who will ever seek the office of the presidency—and that is saying a lot.

          Note well: I am not saying we should dismiss the threat posed by Trump. I am saying we should be smart and realistic about what that threat is so that we are better prepared to defeat his 2024 presidential bid.

          Trump held the 2024 equivalent of his "golden escalator ride" over the weekend in Waco, Texas. As widely noted, he did so during the 30th anniversary of the months-long confrontation in Waco between the Branch Davidians and federal law enforcement that resulted in the deaths of 86 people, including 28 children. Trump had no reason to hold the first major rally of his presidential campaign in Waco except to invoke memories of armed resistance against the FBI, ATF, and Texas National Guard.

          For those who doubt that Trump is willing to attempt a second coup and insurrection, the selection of Waco for his first major rally could not be clearer. And if you missed the clue in the location, Trump reinforced the point by playing his "song"—"Justice for All"—recorded with convicted January 6^th defendants currently serving prison time. Per the Los Angeles Times,

With a hand over his heart, Trump stood at attention when his rally opened with a song called "Justice for All," performed by a choir of people imprisoned for their roles in the Jan. 6 insurrection at the U.S. Capitol.

          Widely available video shows that a substantial crowd of several thousand supporters attended the rally—but others noted that supporters started leaving early as Trump droned on about personal grievances not relevant to many of his supporters.

          And that is the major takeaway from the 2023 "golden escalator" speech compared to the 2016 version. In his 2016 campaign kick-off, Trump spoke about the grievance culture of disaffected Republicans. In 2023, he spoke about his grievances—the perceived political prosecutions, the 2020 election, and Joe Biden's accomplishments that overshadow the miserable failures of Trump's presidency.

          When Trump veered away from whining about personal grievances, every utterance was a lie. The media is now forewarned and forearmed, and "fact-checking" articles abound. I recommend you keep a few near at hand to forward to your (least) favorite Trump-loving uncle / brother / cousin / bowling buddy. See, e.g., CNN, Fact check: Trump repeats false claims during rally in Waco, Texas.

          Per CNN, Trump lied about

• The 2020 election;

• The trade deficit with China under Biden vs Trump;

• The existence, amount, and source of trade tariff payments under Trump vs prior presidents;

• Construction of the border wall;

• Inflation under Biden compared to prior presidents;

• The amount of military equipment left in Afghanistan;

• The amount of aid to Ukraine during the Obama administration;

• His opposition to the Nord Stream 2 pipeline;

• Michael Bloomberg's 2020 campaign;

• Blah, blah, blah.

          You get the point. Trump is incapable of stating facts. Never accept any (allegedly) factual statement from Trump without doing independent research.

          But apart from the lies, Trump also repeated alarming statements about what he would do if reelected. He called for the arrest and imprisonment of journalists and editors who published portions of the Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health draft opinion. Trump repeated claims that he won the 2020 election. He said 2024 would be the "final battle," saying, "Either the deep state destroys America, or we destroy the deep state."

          All of this is cause for worry—to a point. Trump is the clear frontrunner for the 2024 GOP nomination. Indeed, stumbles by DeSantis in his first exposure beyond the borders of Florida highlighted his flaws as a candidate—elevating Trump in the process, at least in the GOP. See Intelligencer, GOP Insiders Say Everything's Coming Up Trump. Indeed, Trump is feeling so confident that he will drive DeSantis out of the race that he is telling consultants and vendors that if they work for DeSantis now, they will be banned from working for Trump in the future.

          But, before you surrender to despair, we must recognize that Trump is weak and vulnerable—and about to become even more so. Rupert Murdoch has apparently turned against Trump— if the most recent front-page headline in the New York Post is any indication. On a front page adorned with Trump holding a baseball bat, the headline reads, "BAT HIT CRAZY / Deranged Trump Threatens Violence Against Bragg."  

          The NYPost editorial board addressed Trump's supporters directly, telling them to ignore Trump's call to "Take back our nation," as follows:

If you actually "rose up" and were arrested, Trump would abandon you, just as he has every ally who wasn't useful to him anymore. What did he do for those locked up for months over Jan. 6?

Do you want a leader who will fight for you? Then you have to pick someone who can actually get elected. Republicans can't throw away their shot in 2024.

          While the NYPost is not widely read among Trump supporters outside of New York, it shares an owner (Rupert Murdoch) with Fox News. That common ownership does not bode well for Trump, given that Fox was the media outlet singularly responsible for Trump's election in 2016.

          And, of course, Trump has yet to be indicted. When that happens (and it will), the GOP will have a gravely wounded frontrunner, a has-been flash in the pan (DeSantis), and a bunch of candidates currently registering at 1% in polling.

          The above is a long way of saying that if Trump's 2024 golden escalator equivalent in Waco is any indication, we have reason to be hopeful. We understand the threat we face, and Joe Biden has a list of solid accomplishments under his belt. He has outmaneuvered the GOP on Medicare and Social Security cuts and is drawing a line in the sand over the debt ceiling. Six months ago, gasoline prices were touted as the single factor that would end Biden's presidency. Today, it is inflation (allegedly). Next month, it will be something else. The point is that although Biden has problems, none end with a ten-year prison term.

          So, what do I think after Trump's "golden escalator" moment in Waco? I think we have every reason to be hopeful and no reason to be complacent.

Concluding Thoughts.

          Although I have vowed to keep "Concluding Thoughts" short(ish), after discussing this topic with my Managing Editor, we think this topic deserves a longer note. I hope you will read to the end; although it starts out discussing the audio version of the newsletter, it quickly turns to a more important topic.

          I received several hundred emails in response to my request for feedback on the audio version of the newsletter. Thank you! I am still working my way through those emails and will read and respond to each one—but please be assured I have no intention of ending the recorded version in my voice. I apologize if my survey created that misimpression.

          I appreciate all feedback but want to acknowledge and honor those readers who listen to the audio version to overcome physical disabilities or social isolation. I am humbled and touched by your comments. It was a needed reminder that activities and abilities most of us take for granted are gifts of unacknowledged fortune and random circumstance.

          The emails also highlighted an important fact about our post-pandemic recovery. Our nation endured forced isolation during Covid. Millions of Americans—especially the elderly—suffered through months or years of social isolation. Our divisive political climate has exacerbated and extended that isolation, fraying family relationships and life-long friendships.

          Here's my point: We are surrounded by people who struggle every day with isolation due to physical impediments, medical conditions, and age-related challenges. A small act of human kindness on our part can have an outsized impact on the life of someone who is facing daunting challenges alone. An unplanned visit, a spontaneous phone call, a "Thinking of you" postcard, or a "Just checking on you" email can make a big difference.

          If you can, reach out by phone or in person. The power of the human voice was driven home to me by a reader who sent a response to my survey by attaching an audio recording of her thanks for the audio version of the newsletter. Hearing a human voice with inflection, cadence, and tone set her reply apart from the hundreds of other emails I received (which I do not mean to diminish).

          Receiving that audio reply taught me an important lesson about the power of the human voice. It creates human connection and immediacy missing from email. If you have a family member, friend, or neighbor living alone or confined to a care facility, please take a moment this week to share your voice with someone who will be filled with joy to hear it!

          Talk to you tomorrow!